PPDT - PP-XLF = 14.53 - 6/15 Tuesday

[ukarlewitz]

Spy closed at the bottom of zone 3 (see chart below). On the bright side, that was the second close in zone 3 and the second above the 20dma.The sell off came, not surprisingly, after a touch of the 200dma, the third such touch since we broke through it last month. The 200dma should be weakening R and I would suspect that we break if we make a fourth attempt. Both nymo and nysi continued to move up on positive breadth in the market. And vix continued to fall as the euro rallied. It wasn't a pretty day, but its moving in a positive direction, imo. Note the possible iH&S in Spy.




Cobra - Bull. When both SPX and VIX closed in red, 24 out of 31 times (77%) recently a green day the next day. Also, the previous 2 times when we got a bad close like today, we had a huge (I mean really really huge) gap up open the next day.

Shannon - Spy has made an iH&S with neckline at 111.1. S at 109.3 and 108.5 (5dma). 112.2 is next R. Trend is still down.
www.alphatrends.net/

Carl - Since the ES is now at the top of this big trading area I think it likely that a break to a higher low will begin from the green oval target area (1100-1106). This break should be about as big as the biggest reaction on the way up from the early June low, about 25 points (purple rectangles). Downside target is about 1080.

Oscar - wants to go long at l/m 1080s for target l/m 1100s.

Bulkowski - Spx target of 1106 by July 1. I think the indexes will move to the top of their recent congestion zones and then breakout higher. The upward move could take them as high as the 62% retrace of the recent move from the April highs (i.e., 1150s). After that, they could drop but we'll have to wait and see.
thepatternsite.com/Blog.html

Sentiment - This is like beating a dead horse, but I thought I would trot out our composite sentiment indicator constructed from 13 different pieces of data. As expected, the indicator is giving a bullish signal as the "dumb money" is bearish and the "smart money" is bullish to neutral.
thetechnicaltakedotcom.blogspot.com/2010/06/more-on-market-sentiment.html

Put to call (via Barrons): We have conducted a study on the total ratio, and a rare, but powerful buy signal occurs when the 21-day moving average of the total put-call ratio peaks at a value above 0.90. Only ten such signals have occurred since 1998. Seven were winners, and three were losers. The successful signals saw the S&P 500 Index (SPX) rise nearly 100 points on each winning signal. The most recent such buy signal occurred in early March of this year, with SPX near 1120. SPX topped out at 1220 a little over a month later. Not surprisingly, in the recent market drop, put volume has been heavy as bearish fears and forecasts abound. At the current time, the total put-call ratio has tentatively peaked at 1.02 on June 2nd (SPX closed at 1098 that day). If that peak lasts for another few days, it will be a rare confirmed broad market buy signal from the total put-call ratio.
online.barrons.com/article/SB127654271228405537.html?mod=BOL_hpp_dc

[ukarlewitz]

Murphy - after the bullish b/o of the down trend line, Spy could have a throwback like it had in late Feb. Note bullish rsi and macd pos divergence.



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[Rich]

Not to reiterate, Ukarl and Cos, but the trend line intesecting with the 1071 support produce a confluence (tm) of support.

That's for my buddy, Torrentio!



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[ccash04]

CFTC just passed box-office receipt futures... My life is complete, now I can trade futures on Transformers 3.

[ukarlewitz]

World cup: on Tuesday, we'll have Ronaldo and the Portugal team at 10a followed by Kaka and the team from Brasil at 230p. Brasil will be taking on everyone's favorite team, North Korea.

[merrillstanley]

Good Morning, here is your Merrill Morning Minute

MARKETS ARE IN CORRECTION; Cautiously Bullish

Overseas news helped then hindered stocks as the day progressed. Markets are still in a correction any long buys should be shelved and revisiting your watch lists is a priority. Volume tends to be below average, but that has been the case for quite some time. Tutes again fail to offer any hints of interest in investing at this moment. The strong open which was followed by the late fade represents a weak market….yet I view it as opportunity to ride it either way.

Lesson for the day:
Breakaway Gaps Show Buying Stampede

A critical part of investing is knowing when to buy a stock and making sure you don’t chase one that has already gone up too far. In most cases, it’s best to buy a stock when it’s still within 5% of the proper buy point. If you buy past that area, there’s a good chance the stock will start making a normal pullback, and you’ll quickly be facing a loss. There is one scenario, however, in which buying extended doesn’t apply.
Sometimes a stock will be basing for weeks or months. As it nears the buy point, a big move happens.
Before the market opens, there’s positive news about the company or something else draws a wave of buyers to the stock. It could be a strong earnings report, announcement of a new product or other bullish development. When trading opens, the stock price surges as eager buyers try to entice shareholders to sell. The result is a breakaway gap: The stock opens far above the highest price of the previous day’s trading. The sudden burst shows up on the daily chart as a gap between the prior day’s price bar and the breakout’s price bar. Breakaway gaps can be so powerful that the stock is more than 5% above its buy point when you have the first chance to buy. Even though it’s extended, this type of huge-volume move tells investors that it’s OK to buy. History has shown that breakaway gaps are often green lights for big run-ups. But don’t confuse a breakaway gap with an exhaustion gap. The latter is a sell signal. Toward the end of a stock’s prolonged advance, stocks may gap up. In these cases, the action is known as an exhaustion gap.

FWIW:
Who can trust a rating agency anymore…let alone put merit in their actions
Stimulus is coming to an end, unemployment above 10% appears likely (we all know it is much higher than that)…markets will most likely move up on that news…why not it happened last year…
The three most heavily traded ETFs tested their May lows. SPDR S&P 500 has rallied 5% off its May 25 low. SPDR Financial touched a new low on June 8, and then rallied 5.5%. Not counting its May 6 flash-crash low, Power Shares QQQ has rebounded 5% from its May 25 low.
Short Interest Ratio is at 12 month lows
There are nearly as many Bullish (38%) advisors as Bearish (32%)
Price momentum is beginning to favor the €, S&P and NASD
According to Bloomberg – Short countries who team loses in the second round of the tournament; the nation’s stock index will perform a half percentage point worse than the average the day after the match. Also, short the market in the host country 6 months afterward. Finally, short all countries who participated two weeks after the cup completes….jeez right during earnings season…Merrill you’re a semi-genius…why thank you Merrill…exalt to you….no, exalt to you good sir.

Tute Participation:
NASD: “E”
NYSE: “E”
S&P: “E“
DJIA: “D-”
“A” ratings equate to strong accumulation; “E” ratings equate to strong distribution

Investment Ideas:
JBLU, M/L price target raise
NFLX, price target raise at two firms
SNDK will see sales rise 102% this year, stemming from their sales to Apple
Coffee anyone?
TUES – Tutes are not really participating here, D- rating…trade carefully

ETF Role Call:
1 Month Returns
UNG 13.9 GAZ 13.7 TZA 11.7
TNA -20.4 FAS -19.7 BDD -14.5

Quote(s) of the Day:
“I can’t suck it up with a straw.” Barack Obama

Thought(s) of the day:
Playing the switch, accepting low gains…limited to two trades yesterday…Opex week shenanigans?

World Cup Corner:
No one really impressed yesterday: safe, uninspired play coupled with an own goal left much to be desired…luckily the pace and quality of play is about to pick up these next couple days.
Merrill’s Top 5 **this will be updated as I see teams actually play their matches
1. Germany – Fast start, do they have a 6th gear?
2. Republic of Korea – Tourney sleeper
3. Argentina – Week on Defense
4. England – Injuries and Goal Keeper should keep the pubs open late
5. ClockWerk Oranje – Solidly Boring
The above appear to have what it takes to achieve the Semi-Finals.

GLTA, invest accordingly

[lookingherethere]

Arrg Mates.. Capt NYMO say's Surf's Up.. let's get that set!

[ask2lern]

Morning Gang…………………


GOLD

R4 1266.60
Mid Point 1259.30
R3 1252.00
Mid Point 1244.70
R2 1237.40
Mid Point 1235.65
R1 1229.90
Mid Point 1226.35

Pivot Point 1222.80

Mid Point 1219.05
S1 1215.30
Mid Point 1211.75
S2 1208.20
Mid Point 1200.90
S3 1193.60
Mid Point 1186.30
S4 1179.00

SILVER

R4 19.54
Mid Point 19.34
R3 19.14
Mid Point 18.94
R2 18.74
Mid Point 18.61
R1 18.48
Mid Point 18.41

Pivot Point 18.34

Mid Point 18.21
S1 18.08
Mid Point 18.01
S2 17.94
Mid Point 17.74
S3 17.54
Mid Point 17.34
S4 17.14

IWM

R3 65.78
R2 64.93
R1 64.50

PP 63.65

S1 63.22
S2 62.37
S3 61.94


TNA

R3 51.25
Mid Point 49.89
R2 48.52
Mid Point 47.67
R1 46.81
Mid Point 46.30

PP 45.79

S1 44.08
Mid Point 43.57
S2 43.06
Mid Point 41.70
S3 40.33
Mid Point 38.97

TZA

R3 7.61
Mid Point 7.40
R2 7.18
Mid Point 7.10
R1 7.02
Mid Point 6.89

PP 6.75

Mid Point 6.67
S1 6.59
Mid Point 6.46
S2 6.32
Mid Point 6.11
S3 5.89
Mid Point 5.68

………………GLTA

[ask2lern]

From www.optionmonster.com

Indexes could test support levels
June 15, 2010 Tue 6:15 AM CT


Levels did not change as a result of yesterday's negative reversal, which left the indexes lower than where they began trading in the morning. At this stage, a test back down to support could be in the cards.

There are a number of economic reports due out today, which could make for some interesting cross-currents. Without a sufficiently strong catalyst, the technicals are likely to take on added importance.

Nasdaq 100 (NDX)

First support is at 1833.78, the 10-day moving average. First resistance is now at 1867.87.

For the Nasdaq 100 Index Tracking Stock (QQQQ) first support is at $45.16. First resistance is at $45.89.

S&P 500 (SPX)

First support is now at 1069.89, previous resistance. First resistance is at 1098.43.

For the Standard & Poor's Depository Receipts (SPY) first support is at $107.37. First resistance is at $109.58.

Russell 2000 (RUT)

First support is now at 639.84, the 10-day moving average. First resistance is now at 657.54.

For the iShares Trust Russell 2000 Index Fund (IWM) first support is at $64.40. First resistance is at $65.60.

By Bryan McCormick

...............................GLTA

[ask2lern]

Huge volume in emerging markets
June 15, 2010 Tue 6:07 AM CT


Emerging markets are rebounding faster than our own, and one key ETF tops the option volume in the space.

The iShares Emerging Markets (EEM) exchange-traded fund finished yesterday virtually unchanged at $38.77. It climbed as high as $39.50 during the session, putting it back above the June 3 high, while the S&P 500 has yet to make that break. Shares were above $44 two months ago before falling down below $36 at the end of May.

The EEM was No. 5 on the volume list for the session, seeing 485,000 contracts change hands and trailing only the major indexes and their ETFs. More than half of that volume was tied up in the June 38 and July 37 puts.

The big trades in each were corresponding blocks of 111,500 (originally 119,000 but then broken for the smaller amount). The June puts were sold for $0.26 against open interest of 276,930 contracts. Seconds later, the July 37 puts were bought for $0.95 at more than four times the previous open interest at this strike.

Given the trade data, it appears that this was a move to roll a long put position down and out. This means that the trader sold the long June puts as expiration approaches and bought the lower-strike July puts to give the position more time to work. The size of the transaction indicates that it could be a continuation of a big bearish bet or a hedge against long shares. I have read recently that many of the big hedge funds are using ETFs--including the EEM--to make macro directional trades.

(Chart courtesy of tradeMONSTER)

By: Chris McKhann




Uploaded with ImageShack.us

..........................GLTA

[abdogman]

Good Morning Gang

Thx to all for everything........Good Luck Today!!!!

Drop and Pop?
Pop and Pop?
Pop and Drop?
Pop and Mom?

[ukarlewitz]

Oscar - Swing day set up, so he might be a seller for today. He will analyse while he watches the world cup. He is long euro from 1.22 to 1.235.

More importantly, Drogba will be on the pitch for Ivory Coast to face Ronaldo at 10a.

[merrillstanley]

Dog, going with Mom and Pop
Droga needs to play for all of us, injury was unneccary agression on Japanese player's part, it is a shame he will not be at 100%
I have nothing available to tell me otherwise, but we continue to see slow climbs and fast drops...and unless we breach technical support with considerable volume we should move upward until late July....for no better reason than earnings season hype, oh and the world cup

[ukarlewitz]

Spy - has been trading up along rising 50ma on 10' the past 4 days. Now above (110.25) and the 50ma at 110.1. Significant trading below would drag this ma into a downslope. On the upside, the 200dma at 111.0 is paramount R. 109.4 is key S.

[ukarlewitz]

Carl - Today's range estimate is 1077-1098. The 1036.75 low on May 25 ended the drop from 1216.

[deadmoney95]

morning all, and many, many thanks. surprised to see how positive we are this morning. i thought we'd start down, then move up. only means i know fear we'll start up, move down, and then up -- question is whether opex f**ckery wants us to then dump down like yesterday's close.

jeez, portugal / ivory coast. wow. i mean wow.

[merrillstanley]

EQUALIZER

[kingdisco]

lol anyone going long energy into tomorrow. seems like a risk sector going into tom tomorrow.

[deadmoney95]

Jun 15, 2010 8:19:22 GMT -5 merrillstanley said:

EQUALIZER

unreal!

[ukarlewitz]

Euro at yesterday's hod. But Mr Bond is up.

[ukarlewitz]

Crap, missed the second goal. They need to close markets for the next month, I need to focus.

[jack]

Jun 15, 2010 8:22:09 GMT -5 deadmoney95 said:

Jun 15, 2010 8:19:22 GMT -5 merrillstanley said:

EQUALIZER

unreal!

DM - Relative humid is only 200% over here in NoVA - howzit by you in DC?

;D

G'mornin' Gang!

[abdogman]

xlf testing PP on 1m is now 14.51

[abdogman]

FWIW mnute 2 RED candle 4.2 mil shares all the rest up to now low vol

[deadmoney95]

Jun 15, 2010 8:31:26 GMT -5 jack said:

Jun 15, 2010 8:22:09 GMT -5 deadmoney95 said:

unreal!

DM - Relative humid is only 200% over here in NoVA - howzit by you in DC?

;D

G'mornin' Gang!

like breathing hot soup!

[jack]

Jun 15, 2010 8:37:19 GMT -5 deadmoney95 said:

Jun 15, 2010 8:31:26 GMT -5 jack said:

DM - Relative humid is only 200% over here in NoVA - howzit by you in DC?

;D

G'mornin' Gang!

like breathing hot soup!

LOL!

Good idea to get the workout done in the early morning hours when it gets like this.

[abdogman]

xlf vol surge
xlf dropping

[abdogman]

the last min vol surge on 1m for xlf 4.3 mil shares red candle ...mirror image of the second min of traid
xlf now back up to 14.50

[kryptos2009]

Here is the PP Daily Thread (PPDT) data.


XLF PP=14.53
MP=14.58 R1=14.62 MP=14.71 R2=14.80 MP=14.93 R3=15.07 MP=15.20 R4=15.34
MP=14.44 S1=14.35 MP=14.31 S2=14.26 MP=14.12 S3=13.99 MP=13.85 S4=13.72
O=14.63 H=14.7 L=14.43 C=14.45

FAS PP=22.85
MP=23.08 R1=23.30 MP=23.71 R2=24.11 MP=24.74 R3=25.37 MP=26.00 R4=26.63
MP=22.45 S1=22.04 MP=21.82 S2=21.59 MP=20.96 S3=20.33 MP=19.70 S4=19.07
O=23.42 H=23.66 L=22.4 C=22.49

FAZ PP=15.08
MP=15.35 R1=15.61 MP=15.76 R2=15.91 MP=16.33 R3=16.74 MP=17.16 R4=17.57
MP=14.93 S1=14.78 MP=14.52 S2=14.25 MP=13.84 S3=13.42 MP=13.01 S4=12.59
O=14.73 H=15.39 L=14.56 C=15.3

SPY PP=110.01
MP=110.32 R1=110.62 MP=111.18 R2=111.73 MP=112.59 R3=113.45 MP=114.31 R4=115.17
MP=109.46 S1=108.90 MP=108.60 S2=108.29 MP=107.43 S3=106.57 MP=105.71 S4=104.85
O=110.52 H=111.12 L=109.4 C=109.51

SPG PP=88.21
MP=88.69 R1=89.16 MP=89.54 R2=89.91 MP=90.76 R3=91.61 MP=92.46 R4=93.31
MP=87.84 S1=87.46 MP=86.99 S2=86.51 MP=85.66 S3=84.81 MP=83.96 S4=83.11
O=87.76 H=88.96 L=87.26 C=88.41

GS PP=134.65
MP=135.28 R1=135.90 MP=137.13 R2=138.36 MP=140.22 R3=142.07 MP=143.93 R4=145.78
MP=133.42 S1=132.19 MP=131.57 S2=130.94 MP=129.09 S3=127.23 MP=125.38 S4=123.52
O=137.11 H=137.11 L=133.4 C=133.44

JPM PP=37.61
MP=37.80 R1=37.99 MP=38.32 R2=38.65 MP=39.17 R3=39.69 MP=40.21 R4=40.73
MP=37.28 S1=36.95 MP=36.76 S2=36.57 MP=36.05 S3=35.53 MP=35.01 S4=34.49
O=37.97 H=38.27 L=37.23 C=37.33

MS PP=25.63
MP=25.79 R1=25.95 MP=26.27 R2=26.58 MP=27.05 R3=27.53 MP=28.00 R4=28.48
MP=25.32 S1=25.00 MP=24.84 S2=24.68 MP=24.20 S3=23.73 MP=23.25 S4=22.78
O=26.24 H=26.25 L=25.3 C=25.33

C PP=3.90
MP=3.91 R1=3.91 MP=3.93 R2=3.95 MP=3.97 R3=4.00 MP=4.02 R4=4.05
MP=3.88 S1=3.86 MP=3.86 S2=3.85 MP=3.82 S3=3.80 MP=3.77 S4=3.75
O=3.92 H=3.93 L=3.88 C=3.88

VIX PP=28.09
MP=28.65 R1=29.21 MP=29.52 R2=29.83 MP=30.70 R3=31.57 MP=32.44 R4=33.31
MP=27.78 S1=27.47 MP=26.91 S2=26.35 MP=25.48 S3=24.61 MP=23.74 S4=22.87
O=27.94 H=28.72 L=26.98 C=28.58

UUP PP=25.19
MP=25.24 R1=25.28 MP=25.31 R2=25.33 MP=25.40 R3=25.47 MP=25.54 R4=25.61
MP=25.17 S1=25.14 MP=25.10 S2=25.05 MP=24.98 S3=24.91 MP=24.84 S4=24.77
O=25.17 H=25.24 L=25.1 C=25.23

FROM: www.econoday.com

Economic Events & Analysis - 6/15/2010 Tuesday


7:45 AM ET ICSC-Goldman Store Sales

Released on 6/15/2010 7:45:00 AM For wk6/12, 2010
Prior Actual
Store Sales - W/W change 0.8 % -0.7 %
Store Sales - Y/Y 3.0 % 2.9 %

Highlights
ICSC-Goldman reports a 0.7 percent week-to-week slip in same-store sales for the June 12 week, though the year-on-year pace is steady at plus 2.9 percent. The report sees the year-on-year rate, boosted by an easy comparison, improving through the month for an overall increase of 3.0 to 4.0 percent. Redbook is up at 8:55 ET.


8:30 AM ET Empire State Mfg Survey

Released on 6/15/2010 8:30:00 AM For Jun, 2010
Prior Consensus Consensus Range Actual
General Business Conditions Index - Level 19.1 21.0 16.0 to 25.0 19.57

Highlights
Solid describes June's Empire State report that shows steady and firm month-to-month acceleration in orders and shipments. New orders rose more than three points to 17.53 to indicate significant month-to-month growth in this most important of all readings. Shipments, which follow orders, rose nearly 8-1/2 points to 19.67 with the workweek rising to 8.64 vs. no change in May. Delivery times slowed significantly in the month, to 9.88 vs. May's minus 6.58 to indicate stress on the supply chain. Manufacturers in the region are adding employees but at an index of 12.35 they are adding fewer employees than in May or April when the index came in just over 20. The headline business conditions index, steady at 19.57, reflects the overall strength underway.

Price acceleration eased reflecting lower energy prices as prices paid fell back more than 17 points to 27.16. Pass-through of costs is minimal with the prices received index steady at 4.94. Inventories remain a key negative in the report, at minus 1.23 to indicate a marginal draw this month as businesses continue to keep a tight grip on costs. Like inventories, unfilled orders are also a negative at the same minus 1.23 reading to indicate a slight month-to-month draw. Employment and inventories really won't get going until backlogs begin to build.

Despite the negatives, today's report is a plus for the manufacturing outlook pointing to strength for Thursday's report from the Philadelphia Fed and for the monthly ISM purchasing report to be posted at the beginning of next month.


8:30 AM ET Import and Export Prices

Released on 6/15/2010 8:30:00 AM For May, 2010
Prior Actual
Export Prices - M/M change 1.2 % 0.7 %
Export Prices - Y/Y change 5.7 % 5.8 %
Import Prices - M/M change 0.9 % -0.6 %
Import Prices - Y/Y change 11.1 % 8.6 %

Highlights
Import prices fell 0.6 percent in May reflecting a steep 5.0 percent monthly decline in import petroleum prices. Excluding petroleum, import prices rose 0.5 percent following the same 0.5 percent rise in
April. While prices for inputs fell, the result of the fall in energy prices, prices for finished goods remain little changed, at plus 0.2 percent for capital goods and at plus 0.1 percent for consumer goods. The rising value of the dollar points to easing pressure for import prices in the months ahead.

For exports, the rising dollar points to greater gains as foreigners have to pay more for less. Export prices rose 0.7 percent to extend solid gains for a third month. Here the wildcard is agricultural prices which rose 1.4 percent. Excluding agriculture, export prices rose 0.6 percent for a third solid month of gains. Prices of finished capital and consumer goods edged fractionally lower in the month.

The inflation outlook right now is benign and shouldn't stand in the way of policy makers. The rising dollar is a big plus that will keep import prices down and help keep inflation in check.


8:55 AM ET Redbook

Released on 6/15/2010 8:55:00 AM For wk6/12, 2010
Prior Actual
Store Sales Y/Y change 3.6 % 2.7 %

Highlights
Redbook reports a slowing in consumer spending. Year-on-year same-store sales came in at plus 2.7 percent in the June 12 week, down from 3.6 percent in the prior week. The report says traffic is down and warns consumers are cutting back again on discretionary spending. Redbook estimates sales are down 0.5 percent from this time last month indicating another month of trouble for the retail sales report.


9:00 AM ET Treasury International Capital

Released on 6/15/2010 9:00:00 AM For Apr, 2010
Prior Actual
Foreign Demand for Long-Term U.S. Securities $140.5 B $83.0 B

Highlights
Sovereign debt troubles in Europe have tripped a very significant inflow into long-term U.S. securities, at $83.0 billion in April on top of March's enormous inflow of $140.5 billion. Given Europe's troubles during May and the big downdraft in U.S. interest rates that month, this report is likely to show another month of strong inflow for May. Total flow, including short-term securities, rose $15.0 billion in April vs. March's inflow of $26.0 billion.

Foreigners are buying long-term U.S. securities across the spectrum from equities, at a positive $10.1 billion, to Treasuries where April's net flow was positive $76.4 billion. Perhaps the most important news in the report is increasing Treasury purchases out of China which now holds $900.2 billion. Chinese holdings had been on the decline until trouble hit Europe, trouble that has raised demand for U.S. assets reflected in the rising value of the dollar and the fall in U.S. interest rates.


10:00 AM ET Housing Market Index
11:30 AM ET 4-Week Bill Auction



NOTE:
The previous days OHLC data for todays PPDT was gathered from finance.yahoo.com for each individual stock by a series of webquerys built into a spreadsheet.
The formulas used by the www.mypivots.com website to create the Pivot Points were found in the sites help files.
The formulas were built into the spreadsheet which acts on the previous days OHLC data gathered from Yahoo.
The Pivot Points were created using the formulas from www.mypivots.com but NOT by using the site.
Please let me know if you find any errors in the data.
Use of this data is at your own risk.

[ukarlewitz]

This market has more moves than Ronaldo this morning. I think I just got nutmegged.