PP-XLF = 14.2867 - 2/18 (Thursday)

[kryptos2009]

Good Morning Gang,

Here are the PP numbers for today.

Data gathered from:
www.allpivotpoints.com
www.mypivots.com
www.nasdaq.com

FROM: www.allpivotpoints.com

XLF PP=14.28
R1=14.35 R2=14.41 R3=14.48
S1=14.22 S2=14.15 S3=14.09
O=14.35 H=14.35 L=14.22 C=14.29

SPY PP=110.13
R1=110.53 R2=110.80 R3=111.20
S1=109.86 S2=109.46 S3=109.19
O=110.27 H=110.41 L=109.74 C=110.26

SPG PP=75.76
R1=76.73 R2=77.61 R3=78.58
S1=74.88 S2=73.91 S3=73.03
O=74.84 H=76.64 L=74.79 C=75.85

GS PP=157.08
R1=158.36 R2=159.46 R3=160.74
S1=155.98 S2=154.70 S3=153.60
O=158 H=158.19 L=155.81 C=157.26

JPM PP=40.08
R1=40.40 R2=40.77 R3=41.09
S1=39.71 S2=39.39 S3=39.02
O=40.26 H=40.45 L=39.76 C=40.04

MS PP=27.52
R1=27.82 R2=28.25 R3=28.55
S1=27.09 S2=26.79 S3=26.36
O=27.87 H=27.96 L=27.23 C=27.39

C PP=3.40
R1=3.45 R2=3.49 R3=3.54
S1=3.36 S2=3.31 S3=3.27
O=3.38 H=3.45 L=3.36 C=3.41

VIX PP=22.00
R1=22.31 R2=22.90 R3=23.21
S1=21.41 S2=21.10 S3=20.51
O=22.25 H=22.6 L=21.7 C=21.72

FROM: www.mypivots.com

UUP PP=23.61
R1=23.72 R2=23.78 R3=23.95
S1=23.55 S2=23.44 S3=23.27
O=23.53 H=23.68 L=23.51 C=23.65

FAS PP=70.63
R1=71.62 R2=72.56 R3=74.49
S1=69.69 S2=68.70 S3=66.77
O=71.3 H=71.58 L=69.65 C=70.67

FAZ PP=18.93
R1=19.17 R2=19.44 R3=19.95
S1=18.66 S2=18.42 S3=17.91
O=18.76 H=19.2 L=18.69 C=18.9


FROM: www.nasdaq.com

Economic Events & Analysis - 2/18/2010
8:30 AM ET Producer Price Index
8:30 AM ET Jobless Claims
10:00 AM ET Leading Indicators
10:00 AM ET Philadelphia Fed Survey
10:30 AM ET EIA Natural Gas Report
11:00 AM ET EIA Petroleum Status Report
11:00 AM ET 3-Month Bill Announcement
11:00 AM ET 6-Month Bill Announcement
11:00 AM ET 2-Yr Note Announcement
11:00 AM ET 5-Yr Note Announcement
11:00 AM ET 7-Yr Note Announcement
4:30 PM ET Money Supply

GLTA!!

[Mikey]

Good morning Kryptos, and thanks for the marks - will send some good karma your way. The 1,100 level has proven to be strong resistance on the e-mini S&P, and based on this and the price action in the Euro and dollar index, yesterday I sold all my longs, entered a margined 200% short position in my trading acct (SPG, DDR, DE) and am positioned about 40% short (FAZ, DRV) and 60% cash in my IRA.

E-mini S&P 3-day chart:
quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=CME_ES.H10.E&v=i&w=60&t=c&a=10

E-mini S&P update from evilspeculator.com:
ES overnight traded in a rane between the pivot at 1094.75 and somwhere around 1099. It faded off of the lock up and trended sideways until falling some more into the Europe open. The DAX gap up did some good and ES rose from its slepp to test the highs of the night again. The action looked quite well behaved and suggests that the AH market shenanigans are not as prevalent as they have been in the past. With additional liquidity drying up, its hard to play reindeer games. Pivots:

* R2: 1105 = Puts SPX up near the Gartley “B” point. I doubt this will happen on OPEX Thursday.
* R1: 1102 = Notice how thight the pivots are to each other. Low volume and diminished volatility. While not exciting, these are great markets to play the swings in the range and pick up a few points with lower risk. This level was around the resistance from Jan 27th and Feb 2nd - before the Feb waterfall.
* Neutral: 1097.25 = This is the TD resistance level from the waterfall. ES is running along this at the present time, with minor deviations to either side. I would expect a downward move at some point to the S1 pivot - but only based on OPEX Thursday lore.
* S1: 1094.75 = This has already been tested once in the overnight. It’s a likely place for ES to close heading into OPEX tomorrow, IMHO.
* S2: 1090 = Looks like the resistance level from Feb 16th. The 34 DMA is above this point so reaching it today would be a surprise to me.

[lookingherethere]

Good Morning and Thanks for the numbers!!!

[jack]

Nice work Kryptos...wouldn't feel right unless we started out w/ the marks. Thanks

[abdogman]

Kryptos thx very much for the nmbrs and data you present it in a way that makes it easy to use it for reference during the day. Good luck to you !
Mikey. thx for ur input i feel as you do at this point over the short term. Good Morining and Good Luck All.

[kryptos2009]

Thanks everybody.

I hope somewhere along the way Cashfilly joins us here and posts.

I miss her commentary throughout the day.

[doglover]

Good morning all
Thanks for the numbers.

[ukarlewitz]

Thanks K and M. Mikey, we have to talk about your choice of rum and tequila. But a great photo. I knew you were a real pirate.

Carl - 1088-1105 today, like yesterday.

Oscar - We are above his 'omni' levels again in the Spy, Qs and Iwm but he thinks that it is still likely a short.

IT - 'A little left in the market with a top in late February. 115 will hold as a multi-month high.' Wednesday was the calm before the storm. Market is definitely too euphoric when it rallies on a strong dollar. Added a 1/3 position in EDZ yesterday (5.33). Will add shorts in SRS, SDS and QID at these levels: 110.5, 111.5 and 112.0 (1/3 each). Not playing Faz as banks have lagged too badly. MCZ is their 'hidden gem' for Feb.

I'm back in the saddle next week. Love this town.

[ukarlewitz]

And I'm now a Desk Trader. Wohoo.

[lookingherethere]

Got my short board out today. The surf report say's some shifting tides. I'll try and surf FAZ this morning. ;D

[merrillstanley]

Good Morning,
Here is your Merrill Morning Minute:
FAZ bias this morning, but that may change on a dime opex week.
Mixed volume, contemplating taking today off if I don’t like what I’m seeing.
Remember we’re still in a correction. Stop your losses at 7%; take gains earlier than you normally would. Bottoms may not have been made.
All the major indexes are still stuck below their 50 dma.
There was a favorable shift in the spread between bullish/bearish advisers.
Leaders such as CAGC, PCLN are picking up bullish direction.
GLTA

[Mikey]

Hey LH my board is so short I've moved to bodyboarding. Any shorter I'd be skimboarding.

Just added TZA at $9.45 and ERY on the dip to $11.00 - fully short in the IRA

Crude just spiked to $78.5 and hit major distribution volume - I'm gambling a bit on that one since we have that report being released at 11am, but am willing to roll the dice...

Should have unloaded some SPG/DDR/DE in pre-market or near the open, they all spiked up, but looks like they're reversing now to follow SPY and the greater market, which couldn't break through yesterday's high.

[abdogman]

Mikey, i am with yah only.02 dif on the tza

[merrillstanley]

Krypt, awesome job....ty
UK, drink one for me....
LH...on the same wavelength as you and mikey
Mikey,,,,if I'm incorrect I apologize, but Do you listen listen to Stern, if so, does he realistically talk about leaving Sirius? or is it his as usual drama

[abdogman]

10:00 ECONX January Leading Indicators +0.3% vs +0.5% consensus, prior revised to +1.2% from +1.1%

[abdogman]

10:00 ECONX February Philadelphia Fed 17.6 vs 17.0 consensus, prior 15.2

[Mikey]

And UK when I start making better cash I'll start drinking better booze...hopefully if these trades keep going well I'll post a shot this summer of my wife and I sipping some fancy champagne w/our newborn baby and our 2 handsome labs.

Covered DE at $56.93 - 1% gain

Covered 1/3 SPG at $75.9

Saw a big dip in VXX and jumped in at $28.6

[lookingherethere]

I switched for this FAS wave, but u know that is how it is

[ukarlewitz]

A lot of high wick candles here. Need a close above 110.5-.6 to confirm move above R.

[merrillstanley]

smart thinking LH, catch the wave momo, being faz biased this morning, as i am just being cautious, but am looking at accum/distrib numbers, its mixed, not really a strong direction...
nyse a:d 1.4:1...vol 2:1......
s&p a:d 2:1...vol 3:2
just watching carefully...

[ukarlewitz]

Carl long 1099.75. Oh Dear.

[ukarlewitz]

I think we need a shout out to Kryptos who has been elevated in the highly stratified Fastopia society to Moderator. Well done.

[merrillstanley]

UK, I second that motion...

Did Carl really go there???

[ukarlewitz]

The three high wick candles on the 10m were the tell. Plus, two ticks above 1000. Now, see if we hold 110.35. I think this area is going to be very tough - we have completed a 50% retrace and then just above we have both the 50dma and the 62% retrace near 111. This is where the market had such a hard time getting through in December. On this crappy (retail) volume, I think it's not going to be easy. I'm off to look at pirate treasure and then visit Poppa Hemingway. See you in a bit.

[abdogman]

10:30 COMDX Natural Gas Data

Natural gas inventory showed a draw of 190 bcf, analysts were expecting a draw of 190 bcf, with ests ranging from a draw of 202 bcf to a draw of 169 bcf.

[kryptos2009]

Thank you all,

I shall try to serve our kingdom well

[ukarlewitz]

IT - 1/3 SDS 35.20.

L8R

[ukarlewitz]

Carl sold 1097, minus 3 pts. He needs to read candles.

Alright, I'm gone.

[Mikey]

Haven't done one of these in awhile - Abdog check out Rob's charts and try to find what I'm looking at with these:

RSI/20ma check - e-mini at 1,097.0
5 min 48 - price trading below flat 20ma at 1,098.1
15 min 50 - price trading below flat 20ma at 1,097.4
30 min 52 - price trading below flat 20ma at 1,097.4
Hourly 54 - price trading at flat 20ma at 1,097.0
Daily 50 - price trading above rising 20ma at 1,088.6

Bottom line - this is the eighth straight day of higher lows, but due to this recent weakness at 1,100 resistance, as well as the fact that this has been a rally following an extended period of weakness, the RSI's are much more neutral than we'd normally see in a small pullback like we're seeing now - it won't take much for us to fail all of those intraday 20ma's and head down to test our 20dma - which of course would end our streak of higher lows.

Still bearish...obviously not buying this dip

[cosmic]

Feb 18, 2010 10:25:04 GMT -5 ukarlewitz said:

highly stratified Fastopia society to Moderator. Well done.

bwahahahahaahahah ;D

Tell 'em, King