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Post by ukarlewitz on Jul 26, 2010 18:19:38 GMT -5
On the one hand, the market is strong as hell: - 75% of Spx is above the 50dma and 60% is above the 200dma. - Vix crapped out and died below its 200dma. Pitiful. - Small caps are outperforming large caps. - Ted spread is in a monster retreat - Spy, Iwm, DJI, DJT, Qs, semis, SSEC, Euro 350 etc are all above their 50dma and the first 6 of those are also above their 200dma. - Dow Theory buy signal today as both DJT and DJI closed above their mid June high (closing basis). - The Euro remains in an uptrend, like copper and everything else -Gold is selling off everyday as the risk on trade dies - Most importantly, we have a Green Arrow (tm)
On the other hand, the market is strong as hell: - nymo is 98 which is practically a record. The index usually retraces from this level, but not always. Everyone is watching and expects a correction soon (see pundits comments below). - We're up like 10% in 2 weeks. Just like last July when xlf went up 40%. - David Rosenberg and Zero Hedge are both pissed. - JPY and TNX refuse to confirm the uptrend in US equities.
Assume today was a wave high, a 38% fib takes us to 107.7, 50% to 106.5 and 62% to 105.2, all near S levels. Nobody knows.
Cobra - The bottom line, the trend is up but pretty overbought now. So I expect a pullback soon and the pullback shall not be small according to the NYMO extremely overbought pattern mentioned in the weekend’s report. A little little little little bit bearish toward tomorrow at least most likely the SPX won’t be up big like today (for “not up big” I mean less then 1%) because TICK closed above 1,000 again. Another trick is when SPY up 3 days in a row while volume down 2 days in a row (so called price volume negative divergence), short at today’s close, most likely profitable within 6 days.
Caldaro - Overnight another foreign index confirmed an uptrend raising the number to 6 of 13. The US market opened quietly and gradually extended the recent rally to SPX 1113, and then 1115 at the close. Currently the market is extremely overbought short term and a 10 SPX point pullback, or more, can occur at anytime. Nevertheless, this rally from the SPX 1011 low, in early July, is very close to confirming its first uptrend since April. With the technicals continuing to improve this uptrend should be Major wave one of Primary wave III.
Bulkowski - I would expect Spx to stall near the high of the June peak. In other words, I expect the index to turn down soon.
Alphatrends - Benefit of the doubt to buyers on a daily basis but the weekly is still showing lower Hs and Ls. Spy to 113 seems likely but be prepared for anything.
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Post by Dualism on Jul 26, 2010 21:46:10 GMT -5
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Post by Dualism on Jul 26, 2010 21:49:26 GMT -5
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Post by Dualism on Jul 26, 2010 21:51:22 GMT -5
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Post by Dualism on Jul 26, 2010 22:05:49 GMT -5
I think from the equity and index put/call ratios charts, it is fair to conclude that individual stock pickers are using options on indexes to hedge and mitigate portfolio risk.
The fact that index options can be traded till 4:15PM EST make them superior to individual equity options (tradeable till 4PM) as far as bolstering portfolio's insurance overnight.
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Post by kryptos2009 on Jul 26, 2010 22:40:12 GMT -5
Here is the PP Daily Thread (PPDT) data. XLF PP=14.68 MP=14.78 R1=14.87 MP=14.92 R2=14.97 MP=15.12 R3=15.26 MP=15.41 R4=15.55 MP=14.63 S1=14.58 MP=14.49 S2=14.39 MP=14.25 S3=14.10 MP=13.96 S4=13.81 O=14.58 H=14.79 L=14.5 C=14.76 FAS PP=22.60 MP=23.00 R1=23.39 MP=23.61 R2=23.83 MP=24.45 R3=25.06 MP=25.68 R4=26.29 MP=22.38 S1=22.16 MP=21.77 S2=21.37 MP=20.76 S3=20.14 MP=19.53 S4=18.91 O=22.04 H=23.05 L=21.82 C=22.94 FAZ PP=13.86 MP=14.00 R1=14.14 MP=14.41 R2=14.67 MP=15.08 R3=15.48 MP=15.89 R4=16.29 MP=13.60 S1=13.33 MP=13.19 S2=13.05 MP=12.65 S3=12.24 MP=11.84 S4=11.43 O=14.24 H=14.39 L=13.58 C=13.61 SPY PP=111.17 MP=111.62 R1=112.06 MP=112.31 R2=112.55 MP=113.24 R3=113.93 MP=114.62 R4=115.31 MP=110.93 S1=110.68 MP=110.24 S2=109.79 MP=109.10 S3=108.41 MP=107.72 S4=107.03 O=110.6 H=111.67 L=110.29 C=111.56 SPG PP=88.21 MP=89.16 R1=90.11 MP=90.63 R2=91.14 MP=92.61 R3=94.07 MP=95.54 R4=97.00 MP=87.70 S1=87.18 MP=86.23 S2=85.28 MP=83.82 S3=82.35 MP=80.89 S4=79.42 O=87.02 H=89.25 L=86.32 C=89.07 GS PP=147.47 MP=148.60 R1=149.73 MP=150.50 R2=151.26 MP=153.16 R3=155.05 MP=156.95 R4=158.84 MP=146.71 S1=145.94 MP=144.81 S2=143.68 MP=141.79 S3=139.89 MP=138.00 S4=136.10 O=147.39 H=149 L=145.21 C=148.2 JPM PP=40.06 MP=40.35 R1=40.63 MP=40.78 R2=40.92 MP=41.35 R3=41.78 MP=42.21 R4=42.64 MP=39.92 S1=39.77 MP=39.49 S2=39.20 MP=38.77 S3=38.34 MP=37.91 S4=37.48 O=39.8 H=40.36 L=39.5 C=40.33 MS PP=26.96 MP=27.10 R1=27.24 MP=27.37 R2=27.49 MP=27.75 R3=28.02 MP=28.28 R4=28.55 MP=26.84 S1=26.71 MP=26.57 S2=26.43 MP=26.16 S3=25.90 MP=25.63 S4=25.37 O=26.98 H=27.2 L=26.67 C=27 C PP=4.11 MP=4.15 R1=4.19 MP=4.22 R2=4.24 MP=4.30 R3=4.37 MP=4.43 R4=4.50 MP=4.09 S1=4.06 MP=4.02 S2=3.98 MP=3.91 S3=3.85 MP=3.78 S4=3.72 O=4.02 H=4.15 L=4.02 C=4.15 VIX PP=23.38 MP=23.70 R1=24.01 MP=24.63 R2=25.25 MP=26.18 R3=27.12 MP=28.05 R4=28.99 MP=22.76 S1=22.14 MP=21.83 S2=21.51 MP=20.57 S3=19.64 MP=18.70 S4=17.77 O=24.37 H=24.61 L=22.74 C=22.78 UUP PP=23.89 MP=23.91 R1=23.93 MP=23.97 R2=24.01 MP=24.07 R3=24.13 MP=24.19 R4=24.25 MP=23.85 S1=23.81 MP=23.79 S2=23.77 MP=23.71 S3=23.65 MP=23.59 S4=23.53 O=23.93 H=23.96 L=23.84 C=23.86 FROM: www.econoday.comEconomic Events & Analysis - 7/27/2010 Tuesday7:45 AM ET ICSC-Goldman Store Sales 8:55 AM ET Redbook 9:00 AM ET S&P Case-Shiller HPI 10:00 AM ET Consumer Confidence Released on 7/27/2010 10:00:00 AM For Jul, 2010 Prior Consensus Consensus Range Consumer Confidence - Level 52.9 51.0 46.0 to 54.0 Market Consensus Before Announcement The Conference Board's consumer confidence index for June fell to 52.9 in a nearly 10 point decline the size of which usually corresponds with an economic shock. At the national level, the drop was mainly due to concern over the job market and income growth. At the regional level, there were indications that confidence also was pulled down by the ongoing psychological and economic damage from the Gulf oil spill. The June decline was led by severe weakness in the East South Central and the South Atlantic. More recently, the mid-July reading for Reuters/University of Michigan consumer sentiment dropped sharply from June. 10:00 AM ET State Street Investor Confidence Index 11:30 AM ET 4-Week Bill Auction 11:30 AM ET 52-Week Bill Auction 1:00 PM ET 2-Yr Note Auction NOTE: The previous days OHLC data for todays PPDT was gathered from finance.yahoo.com for each individual stock by a series of webquerys built into a spreadsheet. The formulas used by the www.mypivots.com website to create the Pivot Points were found in the sites help files. The formulas were built into the spreadsheet which acts on the previous days OHLC data gathered from Yahoo. The Pivot Points were created using the formulas from www.mypivots.com but NOT by using the site. Please let me know if you find any errors in the data. Use of this data is at your own risk.
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Post by ask2lern on Jul 27, 2010 6:20:01 GMT -5
Morning gang…………thanks for the info ……….Here are the pivots…………
GOLD
R4 1229.77 midpoint 1222.32 R3 1214.87 midpoint 1207.42 R2 1199.97 Midpoint 1195.75 R1 1191.53 midpoint 1188.30
PP 1185.07
midpoint 1180.85 S1 1176.63 midpoint 1173.40 S2 1170.17 midpoint 1162.72 S3 1155.27 midpoint 1147.82 S4 1140.37
SILVER
R4 19.03 midpoint 18.89 R3 18.74 midpoint 18.60 R2 18.45 midpoint 18.39 R1 18.33 midpoint 18.25
PP 18.16
midpoint 18.10 S1 18.04 midpoint 17.96 S2 17.87 midpoint 17.73 S3 17.58 midpoint 17.44 S4 17.29
IMW
R3 68.16 R2 67.01 R1 67.01
PP 65.96
S1 65.41 S2 64.36 S3 63.81
TNA
R4 54.64 midpoint 53.07 R3 51.50 midpoint 49.93 R2 48.36 midpoint 47.83 R1 47.30 midpoint 46.26
PP 45.22
midpoint 44.69 S1 44.16 midpoint 43.12 S2 42.08 midpoint 40.51 S3 38.94 midpoint 37.37 S4 35.80
TZA
R4 37.63 Midpoint 36.46 R3 35.29 midpoint 34.15 R2 32.95 midpoint 32.19 R1 31.42 midpoint 31.02
PP 30.61
midpoint 29.85 S1 29.08 midpoint 28.68 S2 28.27 midpoint 27.10 S3 25.93 midpoint 24.76 S4 23.59
SDS
R3 33.17 R2 32.88 R1 32.34 PP 32.05
S1 31.51 S2 31.22 S3 30.68
………………………..GLTA
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Post by ask2lern on Jul 27, 2010 6:36:08 GMT -5
From http://www.optionmonster.com...........................GLTA
SPX, RUT breach resistance levels July 27, 2010 Tue 12:54 AM CT
The S&P 500 and the Russell 2000 both broke above resistance yesterday.
The RUT remains range-bound, but the SPX is very close to mounting a real breakout. A move above 1131.23, the peak from late June, would break the downtrend on an intermediate-term basis.
The Nasdaq 100 has become the weakest of the indexes from a technical standpoint. It would need to clear the 1940 area to break free of its downtrend.
Levels have not changed for the NDX, except to notch support up. Resistance remains as it was yesterday morning. The S&P 500 and the Russell 2000 get fresh levels today.
Nasdaq 100 (NDX)
First support is at 1875.38. First resistance is now at 1898.93.
For the Nasdaq 100 Index Tracking Stock (QQQQ) first support is at $46.10. First resistance is at $46.77.
S&P 500 (SPX)
First support is now at 1088.75, the 10-day moving average. First resistance is at 1131.23.
For the Standard & Poor's Depository Receipts (SPY) first support is at $108.99. First resistance is at $113.20.
Russell 2000 (RUT)
First support is now at 649.72. First resistance is now at 677.15, the June high.
For the iShares Trust Russell 2000 Index Fund (IWM) first support is at $65.24. First resistance is at $67.99.
By: Bryan McCormick
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Post by ask2lern on Jul 27, 2010 6:41:32 GMT -5
From www.optionmonster.com.................... Economic reports focus on consumers July 27, 2010 Tue 12:15 AM CT Retail will dominate today's economic reports and may drive trading in the SPDR S&P Retail (XRT) and Retail HOLDRS (RTH) exchange-traded funds, along with their underlying assets. The ICSC-Goldman Store Sales report will be released at 7:45 a.m. ET. There are two components to the report, the week-over-week and the year-over-year changes. Most traders focus on the year-over-year reading, which makes for clearer comparisons. The last week-over-week reading came in at a gain of 1.4 percent, while the year-over-year number was up 4.2 percent. Stronger-than-expected positive numbers would be seen as bullish while drops, reported as negative numbers, would be bearish. Redbook Store Sales will be reported at 8:55 a.m. ET. There are two parts to the report, the month-over-month and the year-over-year comparisons. As with the ICSC release, most traders focus on the year-over-year numbers. The last month-over-month change showed a loss of -0.6 percent and the year-over-year registered a gain of 2.7 percent. Negative readings in either category would be bearish, while stronger positive numbers, especially in the year-over-year release, would be seen as bullish. The S&P Case-Schiller Home Price Index will be released at 9 a.m. ET. The seasonally adjusted monthly prices are expected to rise by 0.2 percent. On a year-over-year basis, the consensus is for a rise of 4 percent. The range of expecations for the year-over-year number is large, from a bearish 2 percent to a very bullish 5.1 percent. Uploaded with ImageShack.usThe Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index will be released at 10 a.m. ET. That number is expected to come in at 51, which is a slight drop from the previous 52.9. The range for the index is quite large, from a very bearish 46 to a very bullish 55.5. (Chart courtesy of tradeMONSTER) By: Bryan McCormick
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Post by abdogman on Jul 27, 2010 7:14:36 GMT -5
Good Morning Gang .....UK,Dual,Kryptos,Ask thx for info and nmbrs ......back for the open
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Post by ukarlewitz on Jul 27, 2010 7:43:48 GMT -5
Oscar also has a Green Arrow - OMNI says to buy the ESU10 in the mid to low 1100.00(s) (single digits). OMNI profit objective number one = the low to mid teens with the possibility of seeing the 1125.00 area if the buying spree continues.
Carl - Today's range estimate is 1106-20. The market is headed for 1145-50.
AK Steel (AKS): Q2 EPS of $0.24 beats by $0.17. Revenue of $1.59B (+101.1%) vs. $1.53B. Shares +5.9% premarket.
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Post by ukarlewitz on Jul 27, 2010 7:56:54 GMT -5
Spy has opted to jump the 200dma o/n. 111.6 now S. 112.3-.4 is R and the 20wma; 113.2 is the June high; 115 is the big one (Jan high).
xlf has a shot at crossing 15 today, setting up a high above June and the 200dma.
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Post by Dualism on Jul 27, 2010 7:59:32 GMT -5
Redbook Released on 7/27/2010 8:55:00 AM For wk7/24, 2010 Prior Actual Store Sales Y/Y change 2.7 % 2.7 %
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Post by ukarlewitz on Jul 27, 2010 8:04:44 GMT -5
JPY has reversed most of yesterday's gain, now pushing to the Friday low.
TNX up strong - 3.045%. Over yesterday's high.
Hmm. Gap and fade?
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Post by rex on Jul 27, 2010 8:04:47 GMT -5
Oscar also has a Green Arrow - OMNI says to buy the ESU10 in the mid to low 1100.00(s) (single digits). OMNI profit objective number one = the low to mid teens with the possibility of seeing the 1125.00 area if the buying spree continues. Carl - Today's range estimate is 1106-20. The market is headed for 1145-50. AK Steel (AKS): Q2 EPS of $0.24 beats by $0.17. Revenue of $1.59B (+101.1%) vs. $1.53B. Shares +5.9% premarket. Something tells me we'll get no where close to 1106 today.
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Post by Rich on Jul 27, 2010 8:15:51 GMT -5
JPY has reversed most of yesterday's gain, now pushing to the Friday low. TNX up strong - 3.045%. Over yesterday's high. Hmm. Gap and fade? I was thinking that too, Ukarl. I'll be ready to unload some longs if I sense weakness. We've had a nice little ride, it may be time for a breather.
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Post by cosmic on Jul 27, 2010 8:25:54 GMT -5
Green Arrow says you can take profit anywhere you want. Since it's a longer term setup for me, I will buy any 1-2% pullbacks (if limited to that in size). If there's a larger pullback you can get out at the stop - moved to 1099-1100. You can re-enter if we break back through the stop on the way up. (If we drop to 1095, you would sell at 1100 on the way down, and not re-enter until a close above 1100 again.)
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Post by Dualism on Jul 27, 2010 8:27:01 GMT -5
Consumer Confidence number is coming out at 10AM. Option players are girding for that I can tell you through the increased IV's. Uploaded with ImageShack.us
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Post by abdogman on Jul 27, 2010 8:35:41 GMT -5
macd xlf fas pos on 1m xlf 14.985 on 1m
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Post by brosin on Jul 27, 2010 8:36:02 GMT -5
Gap and crap, bears will have their K....R hats on by the end of the day if we close back at 1100. Perfect!
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Post by abdogman on Jul 27, 2010 8:39:43 GMT -5
xlf on 1m just over R2 now at 15.00
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Post by ukarlewitz on Jul 27, 2010 8:41:43 GMT -5
Gap and run would surprise the most, I think. I want to see 113.2 d/t.
If we see no ticks below zero in the first 30', we'll have a run today. None so far.
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Post by ukarlewitz on Jul 27, 2010 8:45:15 GMT -5
Oh well, here are the neg ticks.
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Post by maxi on Jul 27, 2010 8:46:46 GMT -5
Yep here is the market we know and love! (sic!)
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Post by abdogman on Jul 27, 2010 8:47:08 GMT -5
BB's just starting to narrow on xlf fas faz xlf 14.94 on 1m
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Post by maxi on Jul 27, 2010 8:48:07 GMT -5
I do think market is waiting for consumer confidence number tho...
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Post by ukarlewitz on Jul 27, 2010 8:48:09 GMT -5
AKS giving an excellent example of sell the news. Sniff.
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Post by maxi on Jul 27, 2010 8:48:50 GMT -5
TLT at HOD
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Post by ukarlewitz on Jul 27, 2010 8:49:48 GMT -5
If this rally is dependent on consumers being confident, we're screwed
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Post by ukarlewitz on Jul 27, 2010 8:55:01 GMT -5
Yesterday's 100 point advance in the DJIA was the third straight day in a row where the index posted triple digit advances, over which time the index has rallied 4%. As shown in the table below, there have been seven prior occurrences where the index posted three straight triple digit advances. Based on those prior occurrences the Dow has averaged a decline of 0.44% the following day and a decline of 1.17% over the next week. The index posted gains in three out of seven of the day and week periods.
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