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Post by maxi on Jul 22, 2010 13:25:32 GMT -5
Thanks so much for all the work in these last few posts UK. I have no feeling for direction so please keep up the input. One thing that is suspect to me is the VIX not falling more today....
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Post by ukarlewitz on Jul 22, 2010 13:30:11 GMT -5
tick +1360 on the 110/R2 punch
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Post by ukarlewitz on Jul 22, 2010 13:37:37 GMT -5
this option guy on stocktwits.tv is very good imo.
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Post by ask2lern on Jul 22, 2010 13:42:13 GMT -5
Thanks so much for all the work in these last few posts UK. I have no feeling for direction so please keep up the input. One thing that is suspect to me is the VIX not falling more today.... This morning at 9:50 CST SPY hit 109.85 and VIX drooped to 23.73...............at 1:25 CST SPY hit 109.94 and VIX at 24.32...................I bought PUTS and SDS.......................FWIW...............GL
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Post by brosin on Jul 22, 2010 13:44:51 GMT -5
Today looks like one of Sanjay's 'The Chart' Inverse days. Meaning FAS would close at the HOD.
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Post by maxi on Jul 22, 2010 13:52:08 GMT -5
Did anyone just lose their TDA connection? Never mind I timed out I guess. I have not been monitoring like i usually do.
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Post by abdogman on Jul 22, 2010 14:01:10 GMT -5
BB's tight on vix 1m xlf 14.48 on 1m
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Post by sp7015 on Jul 22, 2010 14:03:05 GMT -5
I am thinking about buyint the spy 110 weekly put for next week for 1.59 a contract
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Post by ukarlewitz on Jul 22, 2010 14:05:33 GMT -5
If the analog with March continues to work (so far it has) then a possible scenario is a 2-3 consolidation following today's big break of the 50dma. In March, 2/3 of those were black bars (open>close>prior close) in a very tight range. The freestockscharts shows macd set to go positive on the daily, another indication in addition to the b/o in rsi and the pos divergences.
The options guy on stocktwits is getting more bullish. Like all the TA guys, he's been skeptical. He thinks 110 will bring in fresh sellers but says at this point all the bulls need is a higher low. The diamond pattern is a typical bottoming pattern, he says. He wants to see TLT and FXY weaken (join the crowd, buddy). He thinks Vix is close to a bottom, that the flash crash has created a higher floor. Net bias is bullish at this point.
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Post by abdogman on Jul 22, 2010 14:18:00 GMT -5
BB's spreading on 1m fo xlf fas faz fas on upper channel xlf 14.50 on 1m
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Post by Dualism on Jul 22, 2010 14:23:59 GMT -5
SSEC above its 50 dsma as UK stated earlier this morning. Uploaded with ImageShack.us
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Post by ukarlewitz on Jul 22, 2010 14:24:57 GMT -5
Vol breadth is 12:1 on both. Issues is 5:1 Nq and 7:1 Ny. We're getting last hour high ticks (+1200) and we're pushing up at the hod after a +2% rally. All in all, this is impressive.
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Post by brosin on Jul 22, 2010 14:29:09 GMT -5
Vol breadth is 12:1 on both. Issues is 5:1 Nq and 7:1 Ny. We're getting last hour high ticks (+1200) and we're pushing up at the hod after a +2% rally. All in all, this is impressive. All this on the heels of a bad economic report too - further proof that you can't trade daily news.
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Post by ukarlewitz on Jul 22, 2010 14:31:00 GMT -5
DJT, Qs and EEM have all put in both higher Hs and Ls now, as of today. Iwm is having a strong day but needs to do more. Xlf is still the doggy. Smh is killing them all.
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Post by jack on Jul 22, 2010 14:33:49 GMT -5
Vol breadth is 12:1 on both. Issues is 5:1 Nq and 7:1 Ny. We're getting last hour high ticks (+1200) and we're pushing up at the hod after a +2% rally. All in all, this is impressive. All this on the heels of a bad economic report too - further proof that you can't trade daily news. Actual earnings reports apparently trump questionable eco reports (not to mention 2% gains in Euro Mkts).
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Post by Dualism on Jul 22, 2010 14:33:56 GMT -5
ZB ( 30year T-bond futures) was rejected from holding above its well-defined resistance at around 128.65 128 seems to be the gravitating strike for tomorrow's expiration. Uploaded with ImageShack.us
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Post by brosin on Jul 22, 2010 14:35:42 GMT -5
All this on the heels of a bad economic report too - further proof that you can't trade daily news. Actual earnings reports apparently trump questionable eco reports (not to mention 2% gains in Euro Mkts). Not sure though - IBM/TXN disappointed, mkt surged next day. Apple & Morgan Stanley surprised big, mkt tanked next day. Not a great correlation I don't think.
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Post by abdogman on Jul 22, 2010 14:37:06 GMT -5
xlf 14.42 on 1m
macd neg xlf fas on 1m
BB's spread xlf fas on 1m
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Post by deadmoney95 on Jul 22, 2010 14:38:24 GMT -5
well this is a pissy little flush in FAS occurring now.
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Post by abdogman on Jul 22, 2010 14:38:31 GMT -5
xlf 14.39 on 1m
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Post by abdogman on Jul 22, 2010 14:46:09 GMT -5
macd back pos on xlf and fas 1m xlf 14.45 on 1m
just a pissy little flush
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Post by elle on Jul 22, 2010 14:49:59 GMT -5
Rather would like a little drop here at the end, seems more bullish than run to the close.
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Post by jack on Jul 22, 2010 14:51:46 GMT -5
Rather would like a little drop here at the end, seems more bullish than run to the close. 5 wave day "Hoahh!"
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Post by jack on Jul 22, 2010 14:53:32 GMT -5
Oh Lord - now the SEC is broadening some investigation w/ them...(Bloomberg)
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Post by abdogman on Jul 22, 2010 14:58:53 GMT -5
Good Evening Gang.......Thanks for letting me participate....you are a wealth of knowledge
See Ya in the AM..
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Post by ukarlewitz on Jul 22, 2010 15:02:12 GMT -5
It seems very hard to use macro econ data in investing or trading. Look at Hussman. Super bright guy that has been a big bear forever. Is he better off having a detailed macro view? Macro, by definition, is big picture and therefore longer term and therefore the data is subject to revision and reversals from week to week and month to month. Then there is the interpretation of the data; in 2009, the headline was different than the actual data being reported, so you don't know which to use. Plus, should I follow the US or Europe or China or all of the above? And the news is never all good nor all bad but a blend, so how do I weigh the various bits? Finally, macro tends to surprise us as often as not so how can that be used as an edge. Keeping on top of all this information and then getting it right is undoable.
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Post by ukarlewitz on Jul 22, 2010 15:20:02 GMT -5
Well, final breadth was awesome and many key stocks and sectors are above both their 20 and 50dmas and are making higher highs. SPX is now back above the apparently key 12 month ma. I'm sure someone can find fault in all this and so the trend is likely still up until they are on board. Then we'll tank.
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Post by brosin on Jul 22, 2010 15:24:43 GMT -5
After Tuesday's close above all the key levels and then the tank job the day after, people are probably going to try and expect that to happen again. I think tomorrow will be another Bull day.
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steel
Futures Trader
5th Place - Road to Opex 4
Posts: 370
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Post by steel on Jul 22, 2010 15:34:57 GMT -5
Amazon misses and down $18 a/h
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