Post by ukarlewitz on Jul 21, 2010 17:30:56 GMT -5
Spy - A higher low is still in place and the index is in a wedge. Watch for a break below 106.75 (20dma) and then 105.8 (Tues lod). On the upside, its the dang 50dma at 109!
Vix - despite the drama today, it closed at its 5dma (first time in 10 days) and well below the falling 20dma. Its still clearly making lower highs until it can break above 28-29.
UST - smart Mr Bond was on to this the whole time. Yields didn't confirm the push up yesterday and were muted today until 2p. TNX now sitting at major S at 2.88. Tomorrow is key.
Copper - up another 3%. Hmm. Its Mr Bond vs Dr Copper.
Leaders - Overall, pretty medium with today being a failed opportunity to b/o for several. Smh still looks the best. Qs failed at the 50/200dma today. SSEC stalled at its 50dma o/n. EEM stalled to b/o its 200dma. Iwm and DJT are both wedging, generally below key MAs. Xlf is a woof.
Caldaro - The gap up this morning took the SPX right to the OEW 1090 pivot and then the market started to pullback. After Bernanke's testimony the market headed straight down past the 1075 level and back to the OEW 1058 pivot range again. Looking back, this market has now spent the past two weeks essentially between these two pivots. We continue to believe the market is currently building a base after the initial rally from SPX 1011 to 1099. The next couple of days should be important for this potential new uptrend scenario. Remember support at is the 1058 pivot and key support at the 1041 pivot. The short term OEW charts have flipped to a negative bias again.
Bespoke
- Last earnings season, stocks reacted very poorly to earnings reports, averaging a one-day decline of 0.7%. This was tied with Q2 '07 and Q3 '08 for the worst reading since at least 2002. So far this season, things haven't gotten much better. The average stock that has released earnings has gone down 0.4% on its report day (the next day if the company reports after the close). There's still a long way to go before the reporting period ends, but in terms of price movements, things haven't gotten off to a good start.
- In Thursday's release of initial jobless claims, economists will be watching to see if the report can make it three weeks in a row of better than expected results. Just to highlight how disappointing the labor market has been so far in 2010, the last time we had three consecutive weeks of better than expected jobless claims was in the last two weeks of '09 and the first week of this year. For tomorrow's report, initial claims will have to come in below 445K in order to make it three for three.
Alphatrends - The potential h/s has been invalidated but there is an i/h/s that is still in play. Spy is still holding the Tues lod and so a higher low is still in play as well. 107.5 is key R. If it fails, then the next S is 106 and then 104.5. Odds favor the downside. GLD remains weak and expects 113 to be hit.
Vix - despite the drama today, it closed at its 5dma (first time in 10 days) and well below the falling 20dma. Its still clearly making lower highs until it can break above 28-29.
UST - smart Mr Bond was on to this the whole time. Yields didn't confirm the push up yesterday and were muted today until 2p. TNX now sitting at major S at 2.88. Tomorrow is key.
Copper - up another 3%. Hmm. Its Mr Bond vs Dr Copper.
Leaders - Overall, pretty medium with today being a failed opportunity to b/o for several. Smh still looks the best. Qs failed at the 50/200dma today. SSEC stalled at its 50dma o/n. EEM stalled to b/o its 200dma. Iwm and DJT are both wedging, generally below key MAs. Xlf is a woof.
Caldaro - The gap up this morning took the SPX right to the OEW 1090 pivot and then the market started to pullback. After Bernanke's testimony the market headed straight down past the 1075 level and back to the OEW 1058 pivot range again. Looking back, this market has now spent the past two weeks essentially between these two pivots. We continue to believe the market is currently building a base after the initial rally from SPX 1011 to 1099. The next couple of days should be important for this potential new uptrend scenario. Remember support at is the 1058 pivot and key support at the 1041 pivot. The short term OEW charts have flipped to a negative bias again.
Bespoke
- Last earnings season, stocks reacted very poorly to earnings reports, averaging a one-day decline of 0.7%. This was tied with Q2 '07 and Q3 '08 for the worst reading since at least 2002. So far this season, things haven't gotten much better. The average stock that has released earnings has gone down 0.4% on its report day (the next day if the company reports after the close). There's still a long way to go before the reporting period ends, but in terms of price movements, things haven't gotten off to a good start.
- In Thursday's release of initial jobless claims, economists will be watching to see if the report can make it three weeks in a row of better than expected results. Just to highlight how disappointing the labor market has been so far in 2010, the last time we had three consecutive weeks of better than expected jobless claims was in the last two weeks of '09 and the first week of this year. For tomorrow's report, initial claims will have to come in below 445K in order to make it three for three.
Alphatrends - The potential h/s has been invalidated but there is an i/h/s that is still in play. Spy is still holding the Tues lod and so a higher low is still in play as well. 107.5 is key R. If it fails, then the next S is 106 and then 104.5. Odds favor the downside. GLD remains weak and expects 113 to be hit.
".....................time to buy calls(actually should have seen this coming like you other gurus 
and held the 107's I flipped yesterday during the Bernanke circus).....LOL.........well I did buy AIB for the stress test results.........hey UK what pushed DDSS yesterday?.........did you sell? ;D.....GLTA
