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Post by abdogman on Jul 21, 2010 9:05:39 GMT -5
BB's still tight on 1m xlf xlf 14.382 on 1m
BB's narrowing on vix 1m
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Post by jack on Jul 21, 2010 9:08:58 GMT -5
UK, that's a custom - if you use TOS let me know I'll send you the script. It's nothing too fancy - I took a 'tickbehindprice' algo I found and modified it to add that weighted tick. What's interesting is ... because the average weighted tick uses the MACD of the symbol, what it shows is how much a particular stock/etf was affected by the tick. So we have tick, in and of itself, for the market, but average weighted tick says "What does this look like for SPY" and shows the intensity of the move for SPY. If the chart is LVS, there may be less of a mountain, if it didn't respond the same way. I use TOS Cos. I would love the code... We got a helluva lotta brilliant people on this board - I'm continually awed by the input! Thanks Gang!
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Post by abdogman on Jul 21, 2010 9:18:21 GMT -5
xlf 14.41 on 1m at top of narrow BB's on 1m
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Post by crumbdon on Jul 21, 2010 9:25:42 GMT -5
[/quote] We got a helluva lotta brilliant people on this board - I'm continually awed by the input!
Thanks Gang![/quote]
Which is why I only return to to the Yahoo board for the occasional comic relief.
Seriously, though, so many gifted AND generous people on this board. Can't say enough good about 'em.
Come to think of it, this board has comic relief too. Can anyone think of any reason I should look at the old YMB? Hmmm... me neither.
(Wow- I really jacked up Jack's quote, didn't I? Apologies, Jack!)
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Post by deadmoney95 on Jul 21, 2010 9:25:46 GMT -5
greetings everyone from the amtrak acela to new york. free wifi service is suprisingly good.
read last night that there is a rumor the fed will spur bank lending by dropping the interest paid on reserves held at the fed.
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Post by cosmic on Jul 21, 2010 9:32:02 GMT -5
I'm pretty sure I saw a news item on it, DM, but it could have been just a blog post or something. Until then it's a rumor.
I think it might have been related to a dream someone had about what Ben B's testimony might sound like...
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Post by abdogman on Jul 21, 2010 9:32:25 GMT -5
macd on 1m for xlf fas just neg xlf 14.40 on 1m .......BB's tight BB's closing on vix 1m again
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Post by elkuta0380 on Jul 21, 2010 9:35:29 GMT -5
Spy - remarkable how similar these two time periods are - cci, rsi and macd in almost the exact same position as in early March. And Spy has also hit the 50dma, deflected down and then returned to the 50dma again. If the script holds, we clip it this time. Uploaded with ImageShack.usI think we have two options right now... 1) The one above 2) The one I outlined last night (see below) I wish you all the best! LAST NIGHT'S COMMENT: My last bearish case... Uploaded with ImageShack.usToday I mentioned that the weak trendline I was watching was at SPY 107.10. It bounced off of that mark a couple of times and then shot through it like a firework. Well... we are now at my correction continuation trendline (1087ish). That breaks to the upside and it is smooth sailing. However, there is one structure that I am worried about. The little circle on the left side of the chart has the exact same structure as the big circle on the right. We have the exact same setup as the setup before the flash crash. Also, a comparison with the 2007-2009 charts indicate we are in Sept 08... This is why I am worried. Bull's case: Tomorrow or Thursday decisively break through 1087... Bear's case: Tomorrow close below 1087... Thursday close below 1080... Friday at the latest a drop begins. Best of luck all. I am lighter on the short side and will be watching 1087. If 1080 breaks, I will start adding more shorts.
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Post by abdogman on Jul 21, 2010 9:36:39 GMT -5
at 1030EDT
Dept of Energy reports that:
* Crude oil inventories had a build of 360K (consensus is a draw of 1200K) * Gasoline inventories had a build of 1118K (consensus is a build of 650K) * Distillate inventories had a build of 3935K (consensus is a build of 1500K) * Change in the US refinery utilization rate was 1.00% (consensus is -0.43%)
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Post by abdogman on Jul 21, 2010 9:38:50 GMT -5
xlf 14.375 on 1m
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Post by abdogman on Jul 21, 2010 9:43:00 GMT -5
BB's on 1m xlf fas faz spreading now xlf fas on lower channel BB's on 1m vix spreading and vix rising xlf 14.37 on 1m vix up on 5m last 15 mins
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Post by Dualism on Jul 21, 2010 9:44:31 GMT -5
I'm pretty sure I saw a news item on it, DM, but it could have been just a blog post or something. Until then it's a rumor. I think it might have been related to a dream someone had about what Ben B's testimony might sound like... Uploaded with ImageShack.us
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Post by brosin on Jul 21, 2010 9:57:51 GMT -5
There are self correcting consequences for having rates remain too low. If bond buyers are worried about a slowing recovery, they need to tame or measure their doomish feelings. Otherwise they may find themselves suddenly in an economy that may be too hot. Post of the day, thanks Dual!
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Post by abdogman on Jul 21, 2010 9:58:50 GMT -5
macd went neg on 1m for xlf fas 2 min ago xlf 14.345 on 1m
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Post by ukarlewitz on Jul 21, 2010 10:00:51 GMT -5
Personally, I think consolidation after the big move is positive and to be expected. The skeptics are looking for price to be held, not sold into. So far this is working. Vix came down to its 200dma, waiting to see if it weaken intraday for a fifth time. Mr Bond is still in curious nonconfirmation mode. Breadth is basically neutral/pos and tick is doing nada. Time to do some research and tell jokes.
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Post by abdogman on Jul 21, 2010 10:06:37 GMT -5
BB's spreading on 1m for xlf fas faz xlf fas on lower channel xlf 14.295 on 1m
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Post by Dualism on Jul 21, 2010 10:07:07 GMT -5
Here are my five key questions he needs to answer for the markets. Number one: Why did the Fed downgrade their assessment of the economy and what sectors are generating to diminished outlook? This stems from their latest report on the economy that slightly reduced their ranges of growth and raised concerns over a double dip recession. Number two: Why did the Fed say that the recovery in jobs will take longer than expected? We have seen strong growth in non-defense capital goods and this generally leads to good things for jobs. The recent drop in consumer confidence could lead to reduced consumer spending and therefore wipe out the traditional capex link to job growth. Number three: If there is a double-dip recession, what is the Fed going to do from a monetary policy standpoint to aid growth? The Fed still has arrows in its monetary quiver, but cutting the interest rate on reserves doesn’t seem to have the fire power that will be needed. Number four: What will the Fed buy if it re-engages in quantitative easing? The Feds QE program compressed CMBS spreads when it bought most of the new issuance and helped stabilize lending for housing. However should the Fed buy more US Treasury securities, they may drive rates down, but they will also drive funds out of the money market sector. The follow up: Is the Fed ready to extend QE out to more risky assets and is this a good idea? Number five: Why are US firms reluctant to invest and hire when their balance sheets are swollen with cash? Is it lack of sales, lack of revenue, or lack of a clear future for growth? How is the uncertainty over new regulations from health care and financial regulatory reform influencing decision making? How large of a role will the potential increases in taxes reduce company’s confidence for profits and jobs? www.cnbc.com/id/38342366
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Post by ukarlewitz on Jul 21, 2010 10:09:31 GMT -5
-1040. Let's check 108.
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Post by elkuta0380 on Jul 21, 2010 10:10:12 GMT -5
Personally, I think consolidation after the big move is positive and to be expected. The skeptics are looking for price to be held, not sold into. So far this is working. Vix came down to its 200dma, waiting to see if it weaken intraday for a fifth time. Mr Bond is still in curious nonconfirmation mode. Breadth is basically neutral/pos and tick is doing nada. Time to do some research and tell jokes. Consolidation after a big move is very important and should not be discounted. One worry that I have is that the move yesterday is consolidation in response to a big sell-off and once people realize that the big buyers aren't stepping in, that 'consolidation' acts as fuel to lower lows (sub 1000)...
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Post by abdogman on Jul 21, 2010 10:14:27 GMT -5
xlf 14.26 on 1m
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Post by abdogman on Jul 21, 2010 10:23:27 GMT -5
macd pos last 8 mins on 1m for xlf fas BB's narrow xlf fas faz xlf 14.29 on 1m
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Post by ukarlewitz on Jul 21, 2010 10:24:46 GMT -5
Here are my five key questions he needs to answer for the markets. Number one: Why did the Fed downgrade their assessment of the economy and what sectors are generating to diminished outlook? This stems from their latest report on the economy that slightly reduced their ranges of growth and raised concerns over a double dip recession. Number two: Why did the Fed say that the recovery in jobs will take longer than expected? We have seen strong growth in non-defense capital goods and this generally leads to good things for jobs. The recent drop in consumer confidence could lead to reduced consumer spending and therefore wipe out the traditional capex link to job growth. Number three: If there is a double-dip recession, what is the Fed going to do from a monetary policy standpoint to aid growth? The Fed still has arrows in its monetary quiver, but cutting the interest rate on reserves doesn’t seem to have the fire power that will be needed. Number four: What will the Fed buy if it re-engages in quantitative easing? The Feds QE program compressed CMBS spreads when it bought most of the new issuance and helped stabilize lending for housing. However should the Fed buy more US Treasury securities, they may drive rates down, but they will also drive funds out of the money market sector. The follow up: Is the Fed ready to extend QE out to more risky assets and is this a good idea? Number five: Why are US firms reluctant to invest and hire when their balance sheets are swollen with cash? Is it lack of sales, lack of revenue, or lack of a clear future for growth? How is the uncertainty over new regulations from health care and financial regulatory reform influencing decision making? How large of a role will the potential increases in taxes reduce company’s confidence for profits and jobs? www.cnbc.com/id/38342366Despite my market cheer leading, I'm a macro bear. Bottom line: I think we have a tug of war between growth (which will blow) and corporate b/s, which are attractive. I think the market will zig zag without substantial progress in either direction for a long time as it reconciles these two. Growth will be weak, imo. The issue is not liquidity, its demand and capacity. The output gap is 30%. Firms don't need to invest to meet demand. I think there is a tech upgrade cycle but that's about it. RE has 10 years of excess capacity to work off and RE has typically been an area that leads the economy out of a recession. So, the issue is structural, not cyclical. Weak growth means weak employment. I think it will be in the 10% range for quite a period of time. Politics aside, unemployment benefits is smart economic policy due to the multiplier effect (this money gets spent, creates some employment and generates tax revenue). The Fed is running out of room to maneuver. It's keeping its powder dry as long as possible. Again, politics aside, fiscal policy is needed here because the monetary side is up against the zero bound. I think most investors will get chopped to pieces in this environment; you need to be able to play the edges and that's brutally hard as we've seen. But I think the strength in corp b/s creates a great environment for capturing very solid inflation adjusted yield.
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Post by abdogman on Jul 21, 2010 10:31:45 GMT -5
big red candle on 1m in xlf last min xlf 14.23 macd neg
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Post by ukarlewitz on Jul 21, 2010 10:32:28 GMT -5
Carl long 1076. Market will now tank.
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Post by cosmic on Jul 21, 2010 10:37:49 GMT -5
UK, I don't think investors will get shredded (unless you see a long term bear market that will outlast most of when the boomers need their money the most). Traders, on the other hand, are getting smoked left and right.
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Post by ukarlewitz on Jul 21, 2010 10:44:31 GMT -5
UK, I don't think investors will get shredded (unless you see a long term bear market that will outlast most of when the boomers need their money the most). Traders, on the other hand, are getting smoked left and right. I guess I meant to say traders not investors. Traders will be shredded and investors will get frustrated as their accounts go up and down and never sustain the gains they need to retire on. That unfortunately feeds into the economic malaise. I think there is band between 96 and 115 that we will stay within. Those have been significant levels for the past 10+ years.
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Post by Dualism on Jul 21, 2010 10:45:51 GMT -5
Very well stated, UK.
And I am in agreement with the prospect of weak, slow growth and its myriad consequences.
Slow growth I feel is just what the doctor ordered after years of frenzied borrowing and over consumption; over-indulgence really.
At the risk of sounding myopic and self-centered, I feel that the more it is allowed to 'chop to pieces' the small investor and small capital holders in favor of the big investment banks, the worse it will be in the long run.
My say is, "don't decimate the active small capitalists in favor of dull massive wealth holders."
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Post by cosmic on Jul 21, 2010 10:47:22 GMT -5
It's a nice trading band. Problem for the market is when we move slowly between, there's not a lot of money to be made without trickery.
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Post by cosmic on Jul 21, 2010 10:49:26 GMT -5
Very well stated, UK. And I am in agreement with the prospect of weak, slow growth and its myriad consequences. Slow growth I feel is just what the doctor ordered after years of frenzied borrowing and over consumption; over-indulgence really. At the risk of sounding myopic and self-centered, I feel that the more it is allowed to 'chop to pieces' the small investor and small capital holders in favor of the big investment banks, the worse it will be in the long run. My say is, "don't decimate the active small capitalists in favor of dull massive wealth holders." That would assume that dull massive wealth holders have humanity, which they don't, because humanity is bestowed upon us by our creator. These are the people who will kill you and yours to crap on a golden toilet in this life. They either actively dismiss or are unaware of the long-body of time.
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Post by abdogman on Jul 21, 2010 10:54:48 GMT -5
Dogs and lunch ...usual gig.....Thx
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