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Post by ukarlewitz on Jul 20, 2010 17:05:31 GMT -5
Spy - back over the 20 and 5 dma with the top rail and the 50dma at 109. Volume today was 260m, the biggest green volume in 6 weeks. RSI on the daily closed >60 and at the highest level since April. A lot of complacent bears got their ass bitten off.
After a lot of hammers yesterday, we have a number of engulfing candles today. Q has the best (and most important) but also look at DJT and IWM. Two good candles in a row after a brutal Friday. SMH, down more than 3% early on, closed small red with a massive hallow candle. That sector leads and its 50dma is now sloping up (is that a bwahahaha?).
Dr. Copper led from the opening (up nearly 3%) and finished above its 50dma. We've been pointing out that the 20dma has been sloping upwards since July began. Similarly, SSEC is a hair away from its 50dma.
Vix is just off its 200dma. That was a pitiful bounce. Four days straight it has not held its morning pop. That 200dma should crack this time.
Three watchouts: Mr Bond didn't confirm the move today (TNX at 2.93%, off its hod); monster +1630 tick today like the one last Thursday before the Fryday sell off; I hear CPC fell to 0.53, which could trigger a s-t sell.
Caldaro - Short term momentum continued to move higher after friday's oversold condition and hit slightly overbought near today's highs. Today's gap down took the SPX down to the OEW 1058 pivot again, at 1057. Third day in a row the SPX had made a low at this pivot. In the afternoon the market rallied above the SPX 1075 level, as noted yesterday, turning the short term OEW charts positive again. This market may have completed Intermediate wave two, of the new potential uptrend we've been tracking, at today's low. To continue this scenario the market will next need to take out friday's high at SPX 1091, and then, the recent high at SPX 1099. Again the 1058 pivot is support and the 1041 pivot is key support. Once the market clears the 1107 we'll probably get an OEW uptrend confirmation. Tomorrow, FED chairman Bernanke's two day, semi-annual, Congressional Monetary Policy Testimony begins.
Cobra - The bottom line, the short-term trend is up and the Firework may go on for a few days until a big down gap open one day, if the same year 2008 pattern repeats. For tomorrow, a little little little little bearish biased. In case you’ve noticed, yes, it’s about the extremely high TICK readings happened intraday. Most likely the market won’t up much tomorrow if not red, because TICK was closed above 1,000.
Bespoke - The recent commentary coming out of talking heads has been that weak top-line numbers this earnings season have been a main culprit for the declines we've seen since the reporting period began last Monday. The actual numbers dispute this argument. So far this earnings season, 73% of companies have beaten their top-line revenue estimates. As shown below, 73% is at the high end of the range seen during quarterly earnings seasons going back to 1999. The average revenue beat rate since then has been 62%.
Alphatrends - said yesterday that if we got >108.2 for more than 30' that he would be biased long. Got it today.
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Post by ukarlewitz on Jul 20, 2010 17:28:22 GMT -5
Qs really have a good chance to get back on the right side of the market. Closed 0.1 below both the 50 and 200dma and just shy of the April top rail. Its already above its 10wma. Here too, RSI closed at 65, its highest level since April and above the top of the range associated with downtrends. Big R at 46.7.
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Post by ukarlewitz on Jul 20, 2010 17:53:03 GMT -5
Murphy - - gold bull. Chart 7 shows the Gold Trust (GLD) bouncing off chart support near its May low. Chart 9 shows the Market Vectors Gold Miners (ETF) bouncing off similar support and its 200-day line. We've taken the view that gold and gold shares are correcting within a major uptrend. If that's the case, this is about where both should start finding new support. - bond bull. I've written in several messages that bonds are usually the top-performing asset class in a deflationary environment (while stocks and commodities are not). A number of readers asked which bond categories I was talking about. Most of my historical intermarket research has focused on Treasury bonds. That's the bond category that is considered the safest and the one that has the biggest negative correlation with stocks. At the moment, however, all bond categories are rising as well. Chart 5 shows relative strength lines for four bond ETFs since the start of 2010 (measured against the S&P 500 which is the flat black line). Not surprising, the two strongest bond categories this year have been the 20- and 10-Year T-Bond ETFS (TLT and IEF). However, investment grade (red line) and high yield (green line) corporate bond ETFS have also done better than stocks. There's a tradeoff with the two last bond categories which has to to with reward versus risk. In a climate of relatively low interest rates, investors looking for higher yield can look to high-yield and investment grade corporates (in that order) for higher yield. Problem is those two categories also carry more risk. The good news is all bond caterogies are in the black during 2010 while the S&P 500 has lost -4%. That isn't always the case however.
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Post by Dualism on Jul 20, 2010 18:05:21 GMT -5
Murphy - - gold bull. Chart 7 shows the Gold Trust (GLD) bouncing off chart support near its May low. Chart 9 shows the Market Vectors Gold Miners (ETF) bouncing off similar support and its 200-day line. We've taken the view that gold and gold shares are correcting within a major uptrend. If that's the case, this is about where both should start finding new support. - bond bull. I've written in several messages that bonds are usually the top-performing asset class in a deflationary environment (while stocks and commodities are not). A number of readers asked which bond categories I was talking about. Most of my historical intermarket research has focused on Treasury bonds. That's the bond category that is considered the safest and the one that has the biggest negative correlation with stocks. At the moment, however, all bond categories are rising as well. Chart 5 shows relative strength lines for four bond ETFs since the start of 2010 (measured against the S&P 500 which is the flat black line). Not surprising, the two strongest bond categories this year have been the 20- and 10-Year T-Bond ETFS (TLT and IEF). However, investment grade (red line) and high yield (green line) corporate bond ETFS have also done better than stocks. There's a tradeoff with the two last bond categories which has to to with reward versus risk. In a climate of relatively low interest rates, investors looking for higher yield can look to high-yield and investment grade corporates (in that order) for higher yield. Problem is those two categories also carry more risk. The good news is all bond caterogies are in the black during 2010 while the S&P 500 has lost -4%. That isn't always the case however. That is absolutely remarkable that he is bond bullish at these incredibly lofty levels in treasurys.
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Post by ukarlewitz on Jul 20, 2010 18:17:21 GMT -5
In 2 years, I haven't gotten one good trading idea from Murphy. He seems to be perpetually three steps behind. Personally, I think high yield is pretty interesting: corp balance sheets are strong, interest rates are low so I think you'll get paid a high real return with low credit default risk.
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Post by cosmic on Jul 20, 2010 23:22:46 GMT -5
Here's the SPY chart from yesterday. We see bullish extremes everywhere. UK, you may like my TickBehindPrice graph. A green arrow is a tick over 1000. Yellow bars measure average tick. The purple line represents 'weighted tick' which I think I mentioned once before - it's designed to show skews in intensity of tick (and thus the intensity of the advance or decline) by using MACD in the calculation. Notice the spikes around 1:30-2:00. Uploaded with ImageShack.us
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Post by ccash04 on Jul 20, 2010 23:26:19 GMT -5
To UK's point of extreme tick.. We haven't this high of a tick in over a year.
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Post by cosmic on Jul 20, 2010 23:27:16 GMT -5
Those are the largest I have EVER seen in the average weighted tick.
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Post by elkuta0380 on Jul 20, 2010 23:30:58 GMT -5
To UK's point of extreme tick.. We haven't this high of a tick in over a year. hmm... VIX OPEX manipulation in play... that would make for 2 weeks of OPEX manipulation... Thursday rally up to insane heights... Friday's collapse... and now Tuesday's elevator up... let's see what Wed-Friday bring this week... watching 1087 real close.
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Post by elkuta0380 on Jul 20, 2010 23:34:16 GMT -5
Alright... Good night all. Another big day tomorrow. Wait a minute, seems like every day has been a big decisive day lately! Got to love volatile markets
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Post by Dualism on Jul 21, 2010 0:05:55 GMT -5
To UK's point of extreme tick.. We haven't this high of a tick in over a year. hmm... VIX OPEX manipulation in play... that would make for 2 weeks of OPEX manipulation... Thursday rally up to insane heights... Friday's collapse... and now Tuesday's elevator up... let's see what Wed-Friday bring this week... watching 1087 real close. I don't think too much of an extreme outlier tick. I think it is fair to say that individual stock trading by traders and hedge funds over time has gradually diminished in favor of trading relatively safer indexes and ETF's. This substitute 'basket' trading is making the market appear more uniform with waves or surges of buying and selling being ever more collective and hence the extreme ticks. Tick is the net instantaneous number of stocks in price uptick and downtick mode.
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Post by kryptos2009 on Jul 21, 2010 3:41:06 GMT -5
PPDT - PP-XLF = 14.13 - 7/21 Wednesday Here is the PP Daily Thread (PPDT) data. XLF PP=14.13 MP=14.28 R1=14.43 MP=14.51 R2=14.58 MP=14.81 R3=15.03 MP=15.26 R4=15.48 MP=14.06 S1=13.98 MP=13.83 S2=13.68 MP=13.46 S3=13.23 MP=13.01 S4=12.78 O=13.86 H=14.29 L=13.84 C=14.27 FAS PP=20.23 MP=20.86 R1=21.49 MP=21.82 R2=22.15 MP=23.11 R3=24.07 MP=25.03 R4=25.99 MP=19.90 S1=19.57 MP=18.94 S2=18.31 MP=17.35 S3=16.39 MP=15.43 S4=14.47 O=18.99 H=20.9 L=18.98 C=20.82 FAZ PP=15.72 MP=15.99 R1=16.25 MP=16.75 R2=17.24 MP=18.00 R3=18.76 MP=19.52 R4=20.28 MP=15.23 S1=14.73 MP=14.47 S2=14.20 MP=13.44 S3=12.68 MP=11.92 S4=11.16 O=16.72 H=16.72 L=15.2 C=15.25 SPY PP=107.62 MP=108.52 R1=109.42 MP=109.89 R2=110.36 MP=111.73 R3=113.10 MP=114.47 R4=115.84 MP=107.15 S1=106.68 MP=105.78 S2=104.88 MP=103.51 S3=102.14 MP=100.77 S4=99.40 O=105.87 H=108.56 L=105.82 C=108.48 SPG PP=83.54 MP=84.47 R1=85.39 MP=85.90 R2=86.40 MP=87.83 R3=89.26 MP=90.69 R4=92.12 MP=83.04 S1=82.53 MP=81.61 S2=80.68 MP=79.25 S3=77.82 MP=76.39 S4=74.96 O=82.04 H=84.55 L=81.69 C=84.38 GS PP=146.73 MP=149.32 R1=151.91 MP=153.41 R2=154.91 MP=159.00 R3=163.09 MP=167.18 R4=171.27 MP=145.23 S1=143.73 MP=141.14 S2=138.55 MP=134.46 S3=130.37 MP=126.28 S4=122.19 O=142.18 H=149.73 L=141.55 C=148.91 JPM PP=39.18 MP=39.64 R1=40.09 MP=40.32 R2=40.54 MP=41.22 R3=41.90 MP=42.58 R4=43.26 MP=38.96 S1=38.73 MP=38.28 S2=37.82 MP=37.14 S3=36.46 MP=35.78 S4=35.10 O=38.32 H=39.64 L=38.28 C=39.63 MS PP=24.84 MP=25.25 R1=25.66 MP=25.89 R2=26.11 MP=26.74 R3=27.38 MP=28.01 R4=28.65 MP=24.62 S1=24.39 MP=23.98 S2=23.57 MP=22.93 S3=22.30 MP=21.66 S4=21.03 O=24.13 H=25.28 L=24.01 C=25.22 C PP=3.98 MP=4.03 R1=4.07 MP=4.11 R2=4.14 MP=4.22 R3=4.30 MP=4.38 R4=4.46 MP=3.95 S1=3.91 MP=3.87 S2=3.82 MP=3.74 S3=3.66 MP=3.58 S4=3.50 O=3.91 H=4.06 L=3.9 C=3.99 VIX PP=25.04 MP=25.67 R1=26.29 MP=27.47 R2=28.65 MP=30.46 R3=32.26 MP=34.07 R4=35.87 MP=23.86 S1=22.68 MP=22.06 S2=21.43 MP=19.63 S3=17.82 MP=16.02 S4=14.21 O=27.35 H=27.4 L=23.79 C=23.93 UUP PP=24.08 MP=24.11 R1=24.13 MP=24.16 R2=24.18 MP=24.23 R3=24.28 MP=24.33 R4=24.38 MP=24.06 S1=24.03 MP=24.01 S2=23.98 MP=23.93 S3=23.88 MP=23.83 S4=23.78 O=24.14 H=24.14 L=24.04 C=24.07 FROM: www.econoday.comEconomic Events & Analysis - 7/21/2010 Wednesday7:00 AM ET MBA Purchase Applications 10:30 AM ET EIA Petroleum Status Report 2:00 PM ET Ben Bernanke SpeaksFederal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke Testifying before the Senate Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs, U.S. Senate for the Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to the Congress NOTE: The previous days OHLC data for todays PPDT was gathered from finance.yahoo.com for each individual stock by a series of webquerys built into a spreadsheet. The formulas used by the www.mypivots.com website to create the Pivot Points were found in the sites help files. The formulas were built into the spreadsheet which acts on the previous days OHLC data gathered from Yahoo. The Pivot Points were created using the formulas from www.mypivots.com but NOT by using the site. Please let me know if you find any errors in the data. Use of this data is at your own risk.
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Post by ask2lern on Jul 21, 2010 6:45:11 GMT -5
Morning gang…………thanks for the info ……….Here are the pivots………… GOLD
R4 1239.80 midpoint 1231.25 R3 1222.70 midpoint 1214.15 R2 1205.60 Midpoint 1202.50 R1 1199.40 midpoint 1193.95
PP 1188.50
midpoint 1185.40 S1 1182.30 midpoint 1176.85 S2 1171.40 midpoint 1162.85 S3 1154.30 midpoint 1145.75 S4 1137.20
SILVER
R4 18.54 midpoint 18.40 R3 18.25 midpoint 18.11 R2 17.96 midpoint 17.90 R1 17.84 midpoint 17.76
PP 17.67
midpoint 17.61 S1 17.55 midpoint 17.47 S2 17.38 midpoint 17.24 S3 17.09 midpoint 16.95 S4 16.80
IMW
R3 65.41 R2 63.94 R1 63.15
PP 61.68
S1 60.89 S2 59.42 S3 58.63
TNA
R4 49.32 midpoint 47.31 R3 45.29 midpoint 43.28 R2 41.26 midpoint 40.55 R1 39.84 midpoint 38.54
PP 37.23
midpoint 36.52 S1 35.81 midpoint 34.51 S2 33.20 midpoint 31.19 S3 29.17 midpoint 27.46 S4 25.14
TZA
R4 51.07 Midpoint 48.92 R3 46.76 midpoint 44.61 R2 42.25 midpoint 41.05 R1 39.65 midpoint 38.90
PP 38.14
midpoint 36.74 S1 35.34 midpoint 34.59 S2 33.83 midpoint 31.68 S3 29.52 midpoint 27.37 S4 25.21
SDS
R3 36.70 R2 36.09 R1 34.93 PP 34.32
S1 33.16 S2 32.55 S3 31.39
………………………..GLTA
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Post by ask2lern on Jul 21, 2010 6:49:13 GMT -5
from optionmonster.com.......................
Index levels hang on moving averages July 21, 2010 Wed 12:19 AM CT
The indexes rose right out of the gate yesterday and kept climbing throughout the session. As of now, all of the indexes are poised near moving averages, which could act either as resistance or support for the next move.
With the bulk of earnings still ahead over the next couple of weeks, those results--rather than the technicals of the indexes--will be the main drivers in the markets.
Nasdaq 100 (NDX)
First support is at 1824.2, the 10-day moving average. First resistance is now at 1844.60 -- the 50-day moving average.
For the Nasdaq 100 Index Tracking Stock (QQQQ) first support is at $44.83. First resistance is at $45.37.
S&P 500 (SPX)
First support is now at 1079.38, the 10-day moving average. First resistance is at 1088.53, the 50-day moving average.
For the Standard & Poor's Depository Receipts (SPY) first support is at $108.07. First resistance is at $109.12.
Russell 2000 (RUT)
First support is now at 620. First resistance is now at 638.68, the 10-day moving average.
For the iShares Trust Russell 2000 Index Fund (IWM) first support is at $61.93. First resistance is at $63.89.
By: Bryan McCormick
..............................GLTA
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Post by ask2lern on Jul 21, 2010 6:55:55 GMT -5
From optionmonster.com Goldman shows it can lose on VIX tooJuly 21, 2010 Wed 12:08 AM CT Goldman Sachs is one of the largest players in volatility products, but it too can lose money when it comes to VIX options. Goldman was apparently betting that volatility would drop in the second quarter but, of course, it didn't. We know that many institutions have been buying VIX calls to hedge the risk of big market selloffs, and Goldman has often been taking the other side of those trades. "Primarily in response to our client needs, our equity derivatives business was short volatility entering the second quarter and posted poor results," CFO David Viniar said in a conference call yesterday. Of course, short volatility had been a great trade for many years before the financial crisis of 2008. And the VIX had been falling since October 2009. But the volatility index tripled from around 16 to almost 50 from April to May. It finished June above 30, which is 50 percent higher than the historical average. I am definitely biased toward volatility trading. But this is a stark reminder that even the supposedly smartest guys at the table--the guys who some retail traders think game the VIX on a regular basis--can lose money too. Uploaded with ImageShack.us(Chart courtesy of tradeMONSTER) .......................................GLTA
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Post by ukarlewitz on Jul 21, 2010 7:49:36 GMT -5
Carl - Today's range estimate is 1075-1094. The drop from last week's ended at yesterday's 1050.75 low. The market is now headed for 1145-50.
Oscar - OMNI says to buy the ESU10 in the mid to low 1070.00(s). OMNI profit objective = the high 1090.00(s).
Two bulls.
This PM move will jump Spy over the 50dma (109.1) and the top rail.
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Post by ukarlewitz on Jul 21, 2010 7:58:19 GMT -5
Here's the SPY chart from yesterday. We see bullish extremes everywhere. UK, you may like my TickBehindPrice graph. A green arrow is a tick over 1000. Yellow bars measure average tick. The purple line represents 'weighted tick' which I think I mentioned once before - it's designed to show skews in intensity of tick (and thus the intensity of the advance or decline) by using MACD in the calculation. Notice the spikes around 1:30-2:00. Now I've got tick envy. Is that the standard platform or something you programed? It's very nice. You've seen that study of the unusually high correlation among stocks and also between asset classes. Must be a factor behind these two high ticks.
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Post by Dualism on Jul 21, 2010 8:04:42 GMT -5
MBA Purchase Applications Released on 7/21/2010 7:00:00 AM For wk7/16, 2010 Prior Actual Purchase Index - W/W Change -3.1 % 3.4 % Refinance Index - W/W Change -2.9 8.6 % Composite Index - W/W Change -2.9 7.6 % Highlights Homeowners are trying to lock in record low mortgage rates. The Mortgage Bankers Association's refinancing index jumped 8.6 percent in the July 16 week, making for a nearly 30 percent gain over the past four weeks. The average 30-year mortgage fell 10 basis points in the week to 4.59 percent, the lowest ever in the survey. Low rates are one of the few positives for home sales. The badly depressed purchase index rose 3.4 percent driven by demand for government loans which have low down-payments. Today's report, along with yesterday's rise for housing permits, are rare bits of good news for the housing sector.
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Post by Dualism on Jul 21, 2010 8:13:49 GMT -5
There are self correcting consequences for having rates remain too low.
If bond buyers are worried about a slowing recovery, they need to tame or measure their doomish feelings.
Otherwise they may find themselves suddenly in an economy that may be too hot.
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Post by cosmic on Jul 21, 2010 8:17:00 GMT -5
UK, that's a custom - if you use TOS let me know I'll send you the script. It's nothing too fancy - I took a 'tickbehindprice' algo I found and modified it to add that weighted tick.
What's interesting is ... because the average weighted tick uses the MACD of the symbol, what it shows is how much a particular stock/etf was affected by the tick. So we have tick, in and of itself, for the market, but average weighted tick says "What does this look like for SPY" and shows the intensity of the move for SPY. If the chart is LVS, there may be less of a mountain, if it didn't respond the same way.
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Post by ukarlewitz on Jul 21, 2010 8:27:01 GMT -5
SSEC did in fact pierce its 50dma o/n but closed just below.
FCX - has been trading up with copper prices and will jump its 50dma today. Its up to 68 (from 65) in PM. Wow. Copper futures up 3% today after ripping yesterday.
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Post by abdogman on Jul 21, 2010 8:29:46 GMT -5
Good Morning Gang.......Thanks for the Work and continuing my education!!!!!!
GLTA!!
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Post by abdogman on Jul 21, 2010 8:36:08 GMT -5
xlf 14.45 on 1m above R1
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Post by ukarlewitz on Jul 21, 2010 8:40:03 GMT -5
Spy - remarkable how similar these two time periods are - cci, rsi and macd in almost the exact same position as in early March. And Spy has also hit the 50dma, deflected down and then returned to the 50dma again. If the script holds, we clip it this time. Uploaded with ImageShack.us
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Post by abdogman on Jul 21, 2010 8:40:56 GMT -5
Aud/Jpy Falling Xlf 14.41 both on 1m
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Post by ukarlewitz on Jul 21, 2010 8:44:39 GMT -5
MS just created an 8% gap. You won't miss that on the daily chart.
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Post by abdogman on Jul 21, 2010 8:46:43 GMT -5
xlf 14.42-14.41 on 1m acts like that is R1........
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Post by abdogman on Jul 21, 2010 8:49:08 GMT -5
BB's narrowing on 1m for xlf fas faz xlf 14 .38 on 1m
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Post by triggerhappy on Jul 21, 2010 8:50:46 GMT -5
UK, that's a custom - if you use TOS let me know I'll send you the script. It's nothing too fancy - I took a 'tickbehindprice' algo I found and modified it to add that weighted tick. What's interesting is ... because the average weighted tick uses the MACD of the symbol, what it shows is how much a particular stock/etf was affected by the tick. So we have tick, in and of itself, for the market, but average weighted tick says "What does this look like for SPY" and shows the intensity of the move for SPY. If the chart is LVS, there may be less of a mountain, if it didn't respond the same way. I use TOS Cos. I would love the code...
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Post by abdogman on Jul 21, 2010 8:55:02 GMT -5
xlf 14.35 on 1m BB's still tight
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