Post by ukarlewitz on Jul 14, 2010 17:39:02 GMT -5
After 6 days of strong gains, this was a pretty good day. We consolidated above the gap and closed strong. Breadth was close to neutral on Ny and Nq vol was positive. While Nymo pauses, nysi is very close to going positive, putting market health back on the good side. Again, oversold markets can remain overbought for a long time as the chart below shows (blue circles). Bearish sentiment is strong fuel in this case as previously.
Xlf is leading, as is Smh. Out of the down channel but it still needs to make a higher H to look very solid. A lot of impetus from earnings could certainly do it.
DJT is now back over its 200dma and it touched its 50dma. It been lagging but rose today when most of the market was soft.
Smh, xlf, DJI, Qs, EEM, Oih, Uso all closd above their 50dma. And, did anyone notice, Spy closed above today for the first time since May 4. Iwm has been outperforming but is really the only major index looking weak.
Vix rose - its opex. Its 5dma is still declining and it closed below it. After touching the 200dma yesterday, it bounced weakly.
Earnings calendar: www.briefing.com/GeneralContent/Investor/Active/ArticlePopup/PagePopup.aspx?PageId=3270
Bespoke - Over the last week, pretty much every asset class is up with the exception of Treasuries and the Dollar. In terms of US stocks, smallcaps (IJR, IWM) are outperforming largecaps (SPY, DIA), while Materials (XLB) and Financials (XLF) have been the top two performing sectors. Canada (EWC) and Australia (EWA) have been the best performing international ETFs of those highlighted over the last week. Natural Gas (UNG) is the one commodity ETF that is down over the last week.
Cobra - As for tomorrow, a little little little little bullish biased as the SPY intraday Rectangle pattern has a little bit bullish edge (68%) as a continuation pattern.
Caldaro - During the 2002-2007 bull market the SPX sectors that outperformed the market were the XLE and XLU, along with the cyclical XLB, XLI and XLK. During this bull market those two leaders are laggards, and the new leaders have been the XLF and XLY along with the same three cyclicals. We make note of this again because the XLF has already confirmed an uptrend, along with the major bank sector KBE, during this current rally. So far this week we're had three successive pullbacks of 11 points, while last week we had three pullbacks between 13 and 25 points. During this 88 point rally, SPX 1011 to 1099, the pullbacks have been moderate.
Prag Cap - There is a lot of chatter regarding the recent action in the VIX. The index is by no means a holy grail, but a lot of smart money tends to hang out in the options markets so it’s not an indicator that you want to shun. Anyhow, the VIX terms structure is in a steep contango which is implying a summer slow-down in volatility followed by a massive ramp in October. pragcap.com/is-the-vix-a-signal-of-further-selling-to-come
Alphatrends - Likes some of the solar companies, Jaso and Sol. Thinks strong long or short is not advisable here overall. Gap fill down to 108 is possible as well as a touch of the 200sma at 111. Encouraged that xlf and smh have essentially retraced all of the late June fall, and the Qs getting back to the 50dma.
Xlf is leading, as is Smh. Out of the down channel but it still needs to make a higher H to look very solid. A lot of impetus from earnings could certainly do it.
DJT is now back over its 200dma and it touched its 50dma. It been lagging but rose today when most of the market was soft.
Smh, xlf, DJI, Qs, EEM, Oih, Uso all closd above their 50dma. And, did anyone notice, Spy closed above today for the first time since May 4. Iwm has been outperforming but is really the only major index looking weak.
Vix rose - its opex. Its 5dma is still declining and it closed below it. After touching the 200dma yesterday, it bounced weakly.
Earnings calendar: www.briefing.com/GeneralContent/Investor/Active/ArticlePopup/PagePopup.aspx?PageId=3270
Bespoke - Over the last week, pretty much every asset class is up with the exception of Treasuries and the Dollar. In terms of US stocks, smallcaps (IJR, IWM) are outperforming largecaps (SPY, DIA), while Materials (XLB) and Financials (XLF) have been the top two performing sectors. Canada (EWC) and Australia (EWA) have been the best performing international ETFs of those highlighted over the last week. Natural Gas (UNG) is the one commodity ETF that is down over the last week.
Cobra - As for tomorrow, a little little little little bullish biased as the SPY intraday Rectangle pattern has a little bit bullish edge (68%) as a continuation pattern.
Caldaro - During the 2002-2007 bull market the SPX sectors that outperformed the market were the XLE and XLU, along with the cyclical XLB, XLI and XLK. During this bull market those two leaders are laggards, and the new leaders have been the XLF and XLY along with the same three cyclicals. We make note of this again because the XLF has already confirmed an uptrend, along with the major bank sector KBE, during this current rally. So far this week we're had three successive pullbacks of 11 points, while last week we had three pullbacks between 13 and 25 points. During this 88 point rally, SPX 1011 to 1099, the pullbacks have been moderate.
Prag Cap - There is a lot of chatter regarding the recent action in the VIX. The index is by no means a holy grail, but a lot of smart money tends to hang out in the options markets so it’s not an indicator that you want to shun. Anyhow, the VIX terms structure is in a steep contango which is implying a summer slow-down in volatility followed by a massive ramp in October. pragcap.com/is-the-vix-a-signal-of-further-selling-to-come
Alphatrends - Likes some of the solar companies, Jaso and Sol. Thinks strong long or short is not advisable here overall. Gap fill down to 108 is possible as well as a touch of the 200sma at 111. Encouraged that xlf and smh have essentially retraced all of the late June fall, and the Qs getting back to the 50dma.