PPDT - PP-XLF = 14.03 - 7/08 Thursday

[kryptos2009]

Here is the PP Daily Thread (PPDT) data.


XLF PP=14.03
MP=14.22 R1=14.40 MP=14.50 R2=14.59 MP=14.87 R3=15.15 MP=15.43 R4=15.71
MP=13.94 S1=13.84 MP=13.66 S2=13.47 MP=13.19 S3=12.91 MP=12.63 S4=12.35
O=13.69 H=14.23 L=13.67 C=14.2

FAS PP=19.94
MP=20.64 R1=21.34 MP=21.72 R2=22.09 MP=23.17 R3=24.24 MP=25.32 R4=26.39
MP=19.57 S1=19.19 MP=18.49 S2=17.79 MP=16.72 S3=15.64 MP=14.57 S4=13.49
O=18.58 H=20.7 L=18.55 C=20.58

FAZ PP=16.53
MP=16.90 R1=17.27 MP=17.96 R2=18.65 MP=19.71 R3=20.77 MP=21.83 R4=22.89
MP=15.84 S1=15.15 MP=14.78 S2=14.41 MP=13.35 S3=12.29 MP=11.23 S4=10.17
O=17.88 H=17.91 L=15.79 C=15.89

SPY PP=105.12
MP=106.18 R1=107.23 MP=107.79 R2=108.34 MP=109.95 R3=111.56 MP=113.17 R4=114.78
MP=104.57 S1=104.01 MP=102.96 S2=101.90 MP=100.29 S3=98.68 MP=97.07 S4=95.46
O=103.13 H=106.24 L=103.02 C=106.11

SPG PP=79.95
MP=81.29 R1=82.62 MP=83.31 R2=84.00 MP=86.03 R3=88.05 MP=90.08 R4=92.10
MP=79.26 S1=78.57 MP=77.24 S2=75.90 MP=73.88 S3=71.85 MP=69.83 S4=67.80
O=77.8 H=81.33 L=77.28 C=81.24

GS PP=134.68
MP=135.98 R1=137.28 MP=138.01 R2=138.74 MP=140.77 R3=142.80 MP=144.83 R4=146.86
MP=133.95 S1=133.22 MP=131.92 S2=130.62 MP=128.59 S3=126.56 MP=124.53 S4=122.50
O=132.44 H=136.13 L=132.07 C=135.83

JPM PP=37.60
MP=38.20 R1=38.79 MP=39.11 R2=39.43 MP=40.35 R3=41.26 MP=42.18 R4=43.09
MP=37.28 S1=36.96 MP=36.37 S2=35.77 MP=34.86 S3=33.94 MP=33.03 S4=32.11
O=36.64 H=38.24 L=36.41 C=38.15

MS PP=23.68
MP=23.99 R1=24.30 MP=24.48 R2=24.65 MP=25.14 R3=25.62 MP=26.11 R4=26.59
MP=23.51 S1=23.33 MP=23.02 S2=22.71 MP=22.23 S3=21.74 MP=21.26 S4=20.77
O=23.09 H=24.03 L=23.06 C=23.95

C PP=3.86
MP=3.91 R1=3.95 MP=3.98 R2=4.00 MP=4.07 R3=4.14 MP=4.21 R4=4.28
MP=3.84 S1=3.81 MP=3.77 S2=3.72 MP=3.65 S3=3.58 MP=3.51 S4=3.44
O=3.82 H=3.91 L=3.77 C=3.9

VIX PP=27.75
MP=28.20 R1=28.65 MP=29.56 R2=30.47 MP=31.83 R3=33.19 MP=34.55 R4=35.91
MP=26.84 S1=25.93 MP=25.48 S2=25.03 MP=23.67 S3=22.31 MP=20.95 S4=19.59
O=29.56 H=29.56 L=26.84 C=26.84

UUP PP=24.42
MP=24.45 R1=24.48 MP=24.51 R2=24.54 MP=24.60 R3=24.66 MP=24.72 R4=24.78
MP=24.39 S1=24.36 MP=24.33 S2=24.30 MP=24.24 S3=24.18 MP=24.12 S4=24.06
O=24.48 H=24.49 L=24.37 C=24.41

FROM: www.econoday.com

Economic Events & Analysis - 7/08/2010 Thursday

Chain Store Sales

8:30 AM ET Jobless Claims

Released on 7/8/2010 8:30:00 AM For wk7/3, 2010
Prior Consensus Consensus Range
New Claims - Level 472 K 465 K 450 K to 475 K

Market Consensus Before Announcement
Initial jobless claims rose 13,000 in the June 26 week to 472,000, lifting the four-week average by 3,250 to 466,500 for the highest level since March. Layoffs of temporary Census workers may be a factor as some may qualify for unemployment benefits, but the Labor Department did not offer insight on this in its report. Continuing claims have been edging lower in what is probably a good sign though it may reflect to a degree discouraged workers leaving the workforce or simply running out of benefits.


9:00 AM ET 3-Yr Note Announcement
9:00 AM ET 10-Yr Note Announcement
9:00 AM ET 30-Yr Bond Announcement


10:30 AM ET EIA Natural Gas Report

Definition
The Energy Information Administration (EIA) provides weekly information on natural gas stocks in underground storage for the U.S., and three regions of the country. The level of inventories helps determine prices for natural gas products.

Why Investors Care
Natural gas product prices are determined by supply and demand - just like any other good and service. During periods of strong economic growth, one would expect demand to be robust. If inventories are low, this will lead to increases in natural gas. If inventories are high and rising in a period of strong demand, prices may not need to increase at all, or as much. During a period of sluggish economic activity, demand for natural gas may not be as strong. If inventories are rising, this may push down oil prices.

11:00 AM ET EIA Petroleum Status Report

Definition
The Energy Information Administration (EIA) provides weekly information on petroleum inventories in the U.S., whether produced here or abroad. The level of inventories helps determine prices for petroleum products.

Why Investors Care
Petroleum product prices are determined by supply and demand - just like any other good and service. During periods of strong economic growth, one would expect demand to be robust. If inventories are low, this will lead to increases in crude oil prices - or price increases for a wide variety of petroleum products such as gasoline or heating oil. If inventories are high and rising in a period of strong demand, prices may not need to increase at all, or as much. During a period of sluggish economic activity, demand for crude oil may not be as strong. If inventories are rising, this may push down oil prices.

Crude oil is an important commodity in the global market. Prices fluctuate depending on supply and demand conditions in the world. Since oil is such an important part of the economy, it can also help determine the direction of inflation. In the U.S. consumer prices have moderated whenever oil prices have fallen, but have accelerated when oil prices have risen.


11:00 AM ET 3-Month Bill Announcement
11:00 AM ET 6-Month Bill Announcement
1:00 PM ET 10-Yr TIPS Auction


3:00 PM ET Consumer Credit

Released on 7/8/2010 3:00:00 PM For May, 2010
Prior Consensus Consensus Range
Consumer Credit - M/M change $1.0 B $-2.0 B $-5.0 B to $2.0 B

Market Consensus Before Announcement
Consumer credit outstanding edged up $1.0 billion in April-the first increase in three months. However, the original estimate for March of a $2.0 billion rise was revised downward by $7.4 billion and now shows a $5.4 billion contraction. For the latest month, non-revolving credit, reflecting strong car sales, jumped $9.4 billion in April but was offset by a nearly as large of a fall in revolving credit.


4:30 PM ET Fed Balance Sheet
4:30 PM ET Money Supply


NOTE:
The previous days OHLC data for todays PPDT was gathered from finance.yahoo.com for each individual stock by a series of webquerys built into a spreadsheet.
The formulas used by the www.mypivots.com website to create the Pivot Points were found in the sites help files.
The formulas were built into the spreadsheet which acts on the previous days OHLC data gathered from Yahoo.
The Pivot Points were created using the formulas from www.mypivots.com but NOT by using the site.
Please let me know if you find any errors in the data.
Use of this data is at your own risk.

[ukarlewitz]

Pundits all see further gains - to between 1075-1090 - and then further downside from there.

The 5dma for Spy and the Qs turned positive today for the first time since 6/22. Their 20dmas are still negative. However, several leaders are continuing to look decent, with upward sloping 20dmas: JPM (for the first time since late April); Smh; copper (since 7/1); and EEM, FXI, EWZ (Brasil) and EPI (India) since early June. Both Jpm and GS closed above their 20dmas today. It's a start, perhaps.

TNX closed at 2.98%, its highest close in 7 sessions. Its 5dma has curled positive for the first time in one month.

Nymo climbed back to the zero line. With a follow through day, it would turn positive for the first time since mid June. It has made a higher low. A follow through day would do the same for nysi (see Charts and Chat).

Cobra -
1. So to combine all above and applying the multiple Fib confluences area, the most conservative price target should be around 1075ish and the time target should be around 07/07 to 07/12.
2. Last but not the least, let me remind you the seasonality in the following several days – they mostly look very bull friendly. lh6.ggpht.com/_APmrYvpA45s/TDUnJfmLf8I/AAAAAAAAH8E/3WN_Gtw8ajo/s1600-h/Seasonality[2].png
3. I’m a little little little bit bearish toward tomorrow, at least not expecting the same huge up like today, for 3 reasons:
- NYADV closed above 2,600, 16 out of 26 times (62%) recently a red close the next day.
- TICK closed above 1,000, very unlikely a huge up day the next day if not red.
- ChiOsc on SPY 60 min chart is a little bit too high which usually means at least 4 hours pullback so we could see some weakness tomorrow morning.

Caldaro - Support for the SPX jumps three levels to 1058 and then 1041, with resistance at 1090 and then 1107. Short term momentum is extremely overbought. The typical retracement level of counter-rallies during this Primary wave II correction has been about 80 SPX points. This should give us a target near the correction swing pivot at SPX 1090. Fibonacci retracement levels are as follows: SPX 1057 0.382% (hit today), SPX 1071 0.50.0%, and SPX 1085 0.618%. Since all the counter-rallies have been about 61.8% retracements the OEW 1090 pivot range fits in nicely again.

Carl - I think the market has embarked on the first rally in a new bull market up leg. As you can see the market established an extensive sideways range during the past week right at the bottom of a trend channel. A count across this range projects to 1095. A rally as big as the last rally (97 points) would carry the market to 1100 (blue rectangles). This 1095-1100 target area (green oval) will probably be at the upper channel line by the time it is reached.

Bulkowski - I see the major indexes continuing their bounce upward, mostly retracing between 38% and 62% of the recent down move, but then resuming the bearish down trend. I see the index climbing to a 62% retrace of the recent down move, to stop at 1085 by August 1.

Alphatrends - still skeptical. Daily/weekly MAs in downtrend, still lower Ls and Hs. Advises not to chase this rally. Today, he went long when price held above the vwap (this is his d/t model, apparently). Spy S is now 104.8 and he's looking for a possible move to 107 (50% fib). His basic l/t approach is to get intermediate term long when the 5dma is trending up and to get long term long when the 200dma is trending up.

Bespoke -
1. This week's survey of advisor sentiment from Investors Intelligence showed that bearish sentiment increased by 1.5 percentage points to 34.8%. This represents the highest level since 7/22/09. It's a bit ironic that on the day bearish sentiment nearly hit a 52-week high, the S&P 500 is up over 2%.
2. Earnings season starts Monday with Alcoa's (AA) report after the close. People are hoping earnings season will get all of the other issues out there right now off the minds of investors, but that means earnings have to come in strong. If the numbers come in weak, it could be a long reporting period. Below we highlight the performance of the S&P 500 during earnings seasons and off-seasons since the bull market began in March 2009. As shown, the last earnings season was the worst in terms of performance since the recovery began, and the current off-season has also been the worst. Heading into this earnings season, one positive is that expectations don't seem too bullish.

[jack]

I count 2 positive to 3 neg on that chart...last 3 being neg: NUTS

[ukarlewitz]

Murphy: comment below is interesting.



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[deadmoney95]

aloha, ppdt'ers.
checking in from the fastopia oahu field office. this place rocks my face off. and no, i am not in godforsaken waikiki, but in small, secluded waimanalo, with water so blue and warm its like returning to some sort of primordial womb.

anyway, fiancee and i are having an unbelievable time. so nice to be missed, though, or at least to have one's absence acknowledged. i figured i'd keep quiet to avoid jinxing this rise in the market.

you guys all rock. i'll bring you all back lei's and macadamia fotolias.

[ask2lern]

Morning gang…………thanks for the info UK and, Krpyptos……….Here are the pivots…………

GOLD

R4 1256.27
midpoint 1246.62
R3 1236.97
midpoint 1227.32
R2 1217.67
Midpoint 1214.30
R1 1210.93
midpoint 1204.65

PP 1198.37

midpoint 1195.00
S1 1191.63
midpoint 1185.35
S2 1179.07
midpoint 1169.42
S3 1159.77
midpoint 1150.12
S4 1140.47

SILVER

R4 19.44
midpoint 19.19
R3 18.94
midpoint 18.69
R2 18.44
midpoint 18.35
R1 18.26
midpoint 18.10

PP 17.94

midpoint 17.85
S1 17.76
midpoint 17.60
S2 17.44
midpoint 17.19
S3 16.94
midpoint 16.69
S4 16.44

IMW

R3 63.99
R2 62.57
R1 61.83

PP 60.41

S1 59.67
S2 58.25
S3 57.51



TNA

R4 45.14
midpoint 43.54
R3 41.94
midpoint 40.34
R2 38.74
midpoint 38.19
R1 37.64
midpoint 36.59

PP 35.54

midpoint 34.99
S1 34.44
midpoint 33.39
S2 32.34
midpoint 30.74
S3 29.14
midpoint 27.54
S4 25.94

TZA

R4 11.01
Midpoint 10.56
R3 10.11
midpoint 9.66
R2 9.21
midpoint 8.92
R1 8.63
midpoint 8.47

PP 8.31

midpoint 8.02
S1 7.73
midpoint 7.57
S2 7.41
midpoint 6.96
S3 6.51
midpoint 6.06
S4 5.61

SDS

R3 39.36
R2 38.54
R1 36.99

PP 36.17

S1 34.62
S2 33.80
S3 32.25

………………………..GLTA

[ask2lern]

Morning update from www.optionmonster.com

Indexes break resistance levels
July 8, 2010 Thu 12:27 AM CT


Yesterday's trading action on Wednesday was extreme to say the least. Positive earnings news from State Street ignited a rally in the financial sector, which quickly spilled over into everything else.

As a result of the move, upside resistance levels were broken, leaving yesterday's resistance as today's support. All the indexes get fresh levels as a result.

Nasdaq 100 (NDX)

First support is at 1752.31. First resistance is now at 1807.09.

For the Nasdaq 100 Index Tracking Stock (QQQQ) first support is at $43.23. First resistance is at $44.46.

S&P 500 (SPX)

First support is now at 1040. First resistance is at 1071.10.

For the Standard & Poor's Depository Receipts (SPY) first support is at $104.38. First resistance is at $107.10.

Russell 2000 (RUT)

First support is now at 587.67, the low from February. First resistance is now at 616.34.

For the iShares Trust Russell 2000 Index Fund (IWM) first support is at $58.66. First resistance is at $61.63.
By: Bryan McCormick

............................GLTA

[ask2lern]

From http://www.optionmonster.com.........................GL

Retail, jobs, oil reports on calendar
July 8, 2010 Thu 12:04 AM CT


The economic calendar has three important reports today, and any or all of them could make or break the rally that began yesterday.

First up is Chain Store Sales, also more commonly known as same-store sales. There is no particular timetable for the releases, with many coming out early in the pre-market. Expectations are high for this particular data.

The SPDR S&P Retail (XRT) and Retail HOLDRS (RTH) exchange-traded funds and their underlying assets may be active before and after this report. Given that expectations are high, any slip or upside surprise could have larger-than-usual impact.


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Jobless Claims will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET. Initial claims are expected to drop to 460,000 from last week's 472,000. The range of expectations is extremely wide, from a bullish 445,000 to a very bearish 565,000. Continuing claims are also expected to drop to 4.6 million from last week's 4.616 million.

The EIA Petroleum Status Report will be released at 11 a.m. ET. A competing report from the American Petroleum Institute, which does not always correspond with the EIA data, was released last night.

Expectations for both reports were for a draw of -2.3 million barrels. The API data, however, showed a much larger draw of -7.26 million barrels.

If the EIA data confirms this draw or shows an even larger supply reduction, it could be be bullish for crude pricing. If the number is a smaller than the expected negative value--or a positive number, indicating a build--it would likely be bearish for oil.

The U.S. Oil Fund (USO) and the Energy Select Sector SPDR (XLE), as well as its comonent holdings, will likely be active on the EIA data, especially if there is a surprise in either direction.

(Chart courtesy of tradeMONSTER)

[Rich]

FAS is up 1% pm, MGM is up 2%.

The latter is at 10.09. If the rally continues, it could be a runner.

[Rich]

Now that's a broken chart.

Descending wedge.

I like it.



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[abdogman]

Good Morning Gang

Kryptos,UK,Ask Thx very much for info and nmbrs

DM........Rock On!!


Back for the Open,,,GLTA

[ukarlewitz]

Oscar, back from his 7 day 4th of July w/e - OMNI says to buy the ESU10 in the mid to low 1040.00(s). OMNI profit objective = the low to mid 1070.00(s) with the possibility of seeing the low 1080.00(s) if the buying spree continues.

Trade ideas: beta.chart.ly/users/zortrades

[Dualism]

8:50a
Trichet: Still providing unlimited liquidity

That is some statement.

[ukarlewitz]

Carl -
September S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate is 1055-1075. A new upward leg in the bull market has started from the 1003 low. Initial target is 1100 or so

QQQ: A new upward leg in the bull market has started. Initial target is 47.50.

TNX has broken above 3.0%; some R at 3.1%

[Dualism]

10yearT popped above 3% and the 30yearT is right on 4%.

online.wsj.com/public/page/news-fixed-income-bonds.html

[ccash04]

And thank goodness its back above 3% this week, I was going to have to roll my TLT option positions at a loss and was planning on doing it Friday but now I might wait until mid-week.

[Dualism]

The four-week average of initial claims -- a better gauge of employment trends than the volatile weekly number - fell 1,250 to 466,000.

www.marketwatch.com/story/jobless-claims-fall-21000-to-454000-2010-07-08

[ukarlewitz]

Spy - we gapped up over the prior gap.

[abdogman]

xlf 14.377 on 1m
macd rolling over to 0/0

[ccash04]

Looks like it could hit 1075 soon..

[ukarlewitz]

I show tick at 1100. I can say that I have not seen a high tick like that this early.

Spy between 107-08 is a mess with no clear prior R and S. The 200hma is near 108 and the 20dma is 107.9. Seems like a logical place to pause on the upside. On the downside, the double gap might want to close.

TNX is now 3.05%, halfway to R.

[abdogman]

macd's for xlf fas on 1m now neg
xlf 14.32

both on 1m

[abdogman]

BB's starting to narrow on 1m for xlf fas faz
xlf 14.33 on 1m

[abdogman]

BB's coming in on 1m Eur and 1m Vix

[jack]

Jul 8, 2010 8:40:08 GMT -5 ccash04 said:

Looks like it could hit 1075 soon..

...now revisiting the Battle of Hastings (1066) the Brits are still trying to forget that one.

[abdogman]

BB's began spreading 4 mins ago on 1m Eur and Vix
eur falling slightly
vix climbing

BB's still tight on xlf fas faz 1m
xlf at 14.28

[abdogman]

xlf 14.22 on 1m

[ukarlewitz]

GS once again struggling at its falling 20dma. It closed above yesterday but it has not had more than two consecutive closes above since The Event.

MENT has a nice daily chart. Clear channel with bounce yesterday off bottom rail. MAs look good, mostly. Icahn is trying to buy it.

[jack]

I actually just used technical charts to buy something (INTC)...this is a major breakthrough for me(!)

It is, of course, DOWN now from where I entered - lol!!!

[jack]

Parabolic formed BELOW SPY's 1min & abv VIX's