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Post by abdogman on Sept 16, 2010 10:28:41 GMT -5
macd neg now on 1m xlf fas BB's spreading slowly on 1m xlf fas faz xlf fas on lower band xlf 14.653 on 1m
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Post by abdogman on Sept 16, 2010 10:31:47 GMT -5
Going to do dogs and lunch back as usual ......Good Luck !!!!!
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Post by theMIST on Sept 16, 2010 10:49:18 GMT -5
SP 1120 barely holding up
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Post by sp7015 on Sept 16, 2010 10:49:26 GMT -5
I have been watching aapl put prices on the $270's. The contract is trading at .66. I keep seeing random buys for 1.16 or1.10. Has anyone ever seen that before? What does it mean? I dont trade weeklys or watch them but when that happens on monthlys it is most times a bad print or a market order getting screwed IMO..................GL Ya it was the september monthly options that it was happening in
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Post by Rich on Sept 16, 2010 10:56:48 GMT -5
I think this is a wait and see day for me.
I can see a move going either way.
As long as the spx stays around 1120, it's within striking distance of 1130 and above.
A gap and run would make bulls of all of us and it's not out of the question.
Monday?
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Post by brosin on Sept 16, 2010 11:01:01 GMT -5
Posted in my good morning FFR thread, but this is a short term trading idea: I repeat: 4/15/2010: .20% to .22% (**market would be flat 4/15, move way down 4/16, and resume higher to new highs starting 4/17 - **counterintuitive example here in the very short term)
7/15/2010: .17% to .19% (**another counterintutive example, mkt flat 7/15, down big 7/16, but would again resume onto new highs beginning the next week 7/19) - both these counterintuitive moves occured on Thursdays with headfakes Friday, only to see the explosion the following Monday.Today is Thursday and we saw a .02% move. By the previous 2 examples, we will be flat today, down large tomorrow, and then explode Monday and next week to newer highs.
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Post by theMIST on Sept 16, 2010 11:15:05 GMT -5
need to watch SP 200MA (1116)
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Post by ask2lern on Sept 16, 2010 12:05:22 GMT -5
If you are bullis good value on the SPY 112 calls currently at .85 with SPY @ 112.75 only .10 and nice leverage if thats the way you play
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Post by ask2lern on Sept 16, 2010 12:07:32 GMT -5
If you are bullis good value on the SPY 112 calls currently at .85 with SPY @ 112.75 only .10 and nice leverage if thats the way you play And on the other side PUTS they are at .50 and its all air.........GL
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Post by ask2lern on Sept 16, 2010 12:31:49 GMT -5
From http://www.optionmonster.com...............................GLTA
Unusual spread on Nasdaq 100 ETF September 16, 2010 Thu 11:51 AM CT
It's not often that we see unusual option volume in the PowerShares QQQQ Nasdaq 100 exchange-traded fund, but today our systems have detected a diagonal spread that exceeds open interest.
The average options volume in the QQQQ over the last month has been 319,000 contracts, which makes it No. 5 on the volume list. Today has 250,000 already traded, but a put trade has exceeded open interest at both strikes. More than 33,000 of the October 48 and November 47 puts trade, with the biggest blocks of 25,000 going off at the same time. The 48 puts were sold for $1.36 and the 47 puts were bought for $1.60.
The trade is a diagonal spread that will take a maximum gain if the QQQQ is around $48 at expiration. There is a bullish bias to the trade, but the trade will show a loss if shares move sharply down or too far up. In a diagonal spread, however, those losses are known and limited.
QQQQ currently trades at $47.61, down fractionally on the day. The ETF took a break today as the price has run sharply up from $43 at the end of August. Yesterday was the highest close since May 13, but there is solid resistance at $48.
(Chart courtesy of tradeMONSTER)
By: Chris McKhann
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Post by sp7015 on Sept 16, 2010 13:42:07 GMT -5
aapl seems like it just broke out
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Post by abdogman on Sept 16, 2010 13:44:30 GMT -5
macd pos last 10 m on 1m xlf fas xlf 14.695 on 1m
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Post by abdogman on Sept 16, 2010 13:54:12 GMT -5
BB's narrowing on xlf fas faz 1m xlf 14.68 on 1m macd neg on xlf fas on 1m
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Post by brosin on Sept 16, 2010 14:11:39 GMT -5
Is there any chance those SPY $112 puts get into the money by the end of the day?
I wrote them at .52 - so SPY would have to go under 111.48 for me to lose money on them, correct?
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Post by abdogman on Sept 16, 2010 14:11:39 GMT -5
xlf 14.70 on 1m BB's just starting to spread on 1m xlf fas faz
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Post by abdogman on Sept 16, 2010 14:19:19 GMT -5
xlf 14.7185 on 1m
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Post by ask2lern on Sept 16, 2010 14:23:35 GMT -5
Is there any chance those SPY $112 puts get into the money by the end of the day? I wrote them at .52 - so SPY would have to go under 111.48 for me to lose money on them, correct? I doubt they go ITM today...........there were just some monster buys on the offer @ .41..................... anyway in most cases you will get assigned shares if it even a penny below your strike so your cost basis on your assignment will be lower making your cost basis 111.48.........you need to have the funds to cover the assignment or you will get a margin call...............GL
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Post by abdogman on Sept 16, 2010 14:24:04 GMT -5
xlf 14.69 on 1m macd neg now on 1m xlf fas
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Post by brosin on Sept 16, 2010 14:26:50 GMT -5
Oh right I see what you mean. That's what I meant but I guess I was looking at it a little backwards.
If it finishes sub $112, I will get filled at that price minus .52 which I received in premiums. Yep the account has enough buy power for the assignment should it happen. I started slow and small because I have never written an option in my life (fantasy world or real world).
Thanks Ask
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Post by brosin on Sept 16, 2010 14:29:00 GMT -5
Ok so I need to confess that I'm losing my mind. I thought today was opex Friday.
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Post by brosin on Sept 16, 2010 14:31:39 GMT -5
Which is why I couldn't figure out why the Sep $112 puts were still at .50. I thought it was free money!! Or well, so far it *has* been. Time to close out the position as I knock on wood.
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Post by abdogman on Sept 16, 2010 14:33:01 GMT -5
macd pos last 3 mins on 1m xlf fas xlf 14.72 on 1m
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Post by Rich on Sept 16, 2010 14:34:28 GMT -5
The writers have to be making money on both sides the last few days.
Good show, Bros.
When I grow a pair I'll try it too ;D
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Post by brosin on Sept 16, 2010 14:36:30 GMT -5
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Post by ask2lern on Sept 16, 2010 14:42:17 GMT -5
Looks like bot trading onm the 5min.................oh Matttttttt!!
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Post by ccash04 on Sept 16, 2010 14:43:39 GMT -5
Bros, for you to start out with I would suggest writing put spreads this limits your potential losses to the value of the spread. This same can be said for call spreads if you are bearish or bullish (use short call spreads on bearish 3x etfs). Using spreads gives the writer a hedge against a sudden rise in volatility while still the benefit of a time decay or theta..
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Post by brosin on Sept 16, 2010 14:46:09 GMT -5
This is definitely a stupid question Cash, but can you provide a quick example of a call spread?
This morning, I sold the $112 Sep puts and also the $113 Oct calls. I bought the puts back for nice profits and added to the short calls for tomorrow. This wouldn't be a call or a put spread though would it?
Thanks for the help
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Post by ccash04 on Sept 16, 2010 14:47:05 GMT -5
Another useful strategy is a risk reversal with spreads (selling the put spreads and with the debit received from that buy/long a call spread). This works great at times when you think there is a turn b/c you will receive extra leverage in the direction of your bet. Your downside is limited b/c of the put spread.
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Post by ccash04 on Sept 16, 2010 14:50:51 GMT -5
That's a calendar spread I am refering to a vertical spread i.e. selling the 113 call and buying the 112 call (bull spread) and a short or bull put spread would be selling the 112 put and buying the 111 put. Lets say the premiums for the puts are .73 and .42 thus your debit would be .31 minus transaction costs. However you are limited to a max loss of .69 (spread minus debit received).
you can do calendar spreads with puts and calls which would be i.e. selling sept 112 and then buying 112 call (this is considered covered as value of later month will always be greater than current month). and diagonal spreads would be selling 112 and buying 113 (margin requirements here are different).
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Post by abdogman on Sept 16, 2010 14:55:35 GMT -5
Do Wah Do Wah Do Wah Ditty.......Talk About the BOT from New York City!!!!!!!
Have a Good Night Gang.......and again Happy Birthday Rich!!!!!!
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