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Post by brosin on Sept 1, 2010 0:36:39 GMT -5
Bespoke:US Dollar Chipping Away at the 50-DayThe US Dollar Index has rallied 4% from its August 5th low, but for the last week the currency has been trying (with little success) to break above its 50-day moving average (DMA). Given that the S&P 500 is down 7% since the dollar made its August low, any break above the 50-day for the greenback would likely spell trouble for the equity bulls. A Slow Month EndsLast Tuesday we noted how slow this August has been, and with the month coming to an end today, we have updated the numbers below. The first chart highlights the daily volume readings for the S&P 500 this month. Yesterday was one of four trading days during the month that saw less than 700 million S&P 500 shares traded. The average daily reading for the month is currently at 828 million. As shown below, the average daily reading this August is the lowest seen since 1999. Talk about a slow month. We've been hearing a lot this month about the "new normal" for the financial world. The low trading volume we're seeing right now is supposed to be part of the "new normal" for the market, because discouraged investors are simply stepping away from equities. The brokerage stocks that make their money on trading volume have even been hit lately because of the slowness on the street. But we wouldn't be so quick to accept that low volume is here to stay. In the chart below we highlight the S&P 500's average daily volume in August as well as over the final four months of the year. In 2008, August daily volume was very slow as well. That month turned out to be the calm before the market storm that occurred in the final months of the year, when daily volume got up to 1.37 billion. For those interested, below is a table of S&P 500 average daily volume in August and the rest of the year as well as index performance numbers over the same time period. We also highlight the ratio of "August volume" to "rest of year" volume for each year. As shown, the average ratio since 1993 has been 0.88. In all years but one (2007), average daily volume from September through December has been stronger than it was in August. Democrats Say Good Riddance to AugustEquity bulls aren't the only ones happy to see an end to August. Democrats in Congress have had a pretty rough month as well. While Treasury Secretary Geithner kicked off the month with a New York Times op-ed titled "Welcome to the Recovery", the data coming in hasn't exactly been positive. As August comes to an end, recovery is now the last thing on most Americans' minds. Deservedly or not, Democrats in Congress have been taking heat for the lack of strength in the economy. Based on the Intrade contracts to bet on Democratic control of the House and Senate, the Democratic Party collectively had its worst month of the year. At the start of August, the contract for Democratic control of the Senate was trading at 73.5 while the contract for control of the House was trading at 44. One month later, the contract for control of the Senate is down 10.2 points to 63.1, while the contract for control of the House is down 19.5 points to 24.5. It looks as though equity investors aren't the only ones hoping for a September surprise. August Asset Class PerformanceAugust wasn't a very good month for risky asset classes. Of the 58 key ETFs highlighted below, fixed income, gold, silver, the yen, utilities, and Hong Kong were the only ones in the green during the month. The S&P 500 tracking SPY ETF declined 4.50% in August, the Midcap 400 ETF (IJH) declined 4.89%, and the Smallcap 600 ETF (IJR) declined 7.60%. Financials and Industrials were the worst performing sectors in August, while Utilities, Telecom, Health Care, and Consumer Staples held up the best. Italy (EWI) was the worst performing country ETF in August with a decline of 8.89%, and France (EWQ) and Germany (EWG) weren't far behind. The major emerging market ETF -- EEM -- actually outperformed most developed countries with an August decline of 3.24%. Oil (USO) got hit hard during the month with a decline of more than 9%, while the natural gas ETF (UNG) did much worse at -22.78%. Gold (GLD) was up 5.71% in August and Silver (SLV) was up 7.68%. Of the major Treasury ETFs, TLT (20-years+) was up a whopping 8.04%.
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Post by brosin on Sept 1, 2010 0:36:46 GMT -5
Caldaro: Overnight all the Asian markets were lower. Europe opened lower but closed +0.35%. US index futures were lower overnight and at 9:00 Case-Shiller housing prices were reported positive: +4.2 % v +4.6%. The market opened lower at SPX 1046 and immediately retested support at 1041 in the first few minutes. At 9:45 the Chicago PMI was reported lower: 56.7 v 62.3. The market started to rally. At 10:00 Consumer confidence was reported higher: 53.5 v 50.4. The market hit SPX 1054 around this time and started to pullback. By 11:00 the SPX found short term support at 1049 and then tried to rally again. Around noon the SPX hit its high for the day at 1055 and started to pullback again. At 2:00 the FED released the FOMC minutes: www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcminutes20100810.htm. The market bounced a couple of points and then headed lower. At 3:00 the SPX hit 1044 and then rallied some into the close to end the day at SPX 1049. For the day the SPX/DOW were +0.05%, and the NDX/NAZ were -0.25%. Bonds gained 14 ticks, Crude lost $2.90, Gold rallied $10.00, and the USD was lower. Support for the SPX remains at 1041 and then 1032, with resistance at 1058 and then 1090. Short term momentum was extremely oversold this morning, rallied to neutral, and then stayed within that range into the close. Tomorrow, the ADP employment index at 8:15, Construction spending and ISM manufacturing at 10:00, then monthly Auto sales in the afternoon. We also have a Senate testimony and then a speech by FED members tomorrow. FED general council Alvarez gives Senate testimony at 9:00, then FED governor Duke gives a speech at 10:45. The market retested the OEW 1041 pivot early this morning and then tried to rally. This was the third test of this pivot in the past five trading days. The market then tried to rally in the morning, but the rise did nothing for the short term OEW charts - they remain negative. With market weakness since the second week of August it will not take much more downside to confirm an OEW downtrend. The DOW count is looking more and more probable every day. Important trend support remains at the OEW 1041 pivot. A break of this pivot and the downtrend will likely be confirmed. Resistance remains, as it has for six trading days, at the OEW 1058 pivot. Cobra: The bottom line the short-term trend is down and I hold no short position overnight. As for tomorrow, I don’t see any trick but since so far the seasonality worked pretty good (see 08/27 Market Recap), so I guess we might see an up day tomorrow according to the seasonality below: 1. According to Stock Trader’s Almanac, the first trading day in September, SPX up 11 of last 14. 2. See 08/27 Market Recap for the Labor Day seasonality chart, tomorrow should be bull friendly. With the help of the bullish seasonality on the first trading day of each month (See 08/27 Market Recap), I hope SPX could finally break the recent one day up one day down pattern. No matter how bullish you think the market is going to be, at least for the very first step, the SPX must be able to rise 2 days in a row, agree? So let’s see tomorrow. Overall, the daily chart doesn’t look good, especially the 1040 has been tested 3 times so the chances for it to hold the 4th test is remote. And once 1040 were broken, then according to the Measured Move, the 07/01 low would be the minimum target. Ritholtz:CrowdQuery: Will Ratings Agencies Escape Justice?The Bloomberg/BusinessWeek headline was enough to ruin your evening: SEC Declines to Sue Moody’s Over Inflated Ratings. The facts were even worse: Moody’s, the bond rating company, chose not to downgrade inflated ratings on almost $1 billion of debt in 2007. The reason? Concern for their own reputation. The decision came out of Moody’s Investors Service committee in Europe, raising jurisdictional issues. Our CrowdQuery for this evening: 1. Will the Rating Agencies ever be forced to pay for the massive damage they have inflicted? 2. Is the current system of NRSRO going to change? 3. What is structured finance and bond ratings likely to look like in the future? What should it look like? What say ye?
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Post by kryptos2009 on Sept 1, 2010 3:03:50 GMT -5
Here is the PP Daily Thread (PPDT) data. XLF PP=13.50 MP=13.59 R1=13.67 MP=13.73 R2=13.78 MP=13.92 R3=14.06 MP=14.20 R4=14.34 MP=13.45 S1=13.39 MP=13.31 S2=13.22 MP=13.08 S3=12.94 MP=12.80 S4=12.66 O=13.43 H=13.61 L=13.33 C=13.56 FAS PP=17.71 MP=18.01 R1=18.30 MP=18.50 R2=18.69 MP=19.18 R3=19.67 MP=20.16 R4=20.65 MP=17.52 S1=17.32 MP=17.03 S2=16.73 MP=16.24 S3=15.75 MP=15.26 S4=14.77 O=17.48 H=18.11 L=17.13 C=17.9 FAZ PP=16.93 MP=17.12 R1=17.30 MP=17.59 R2=17.88 MP=18.35 R3=18.83 MP=19.30 R4=19.78 MP=16.64 S1=16.35 MP=16.17 S2=15.98 MP=15.50 S3=15.03 MP=14.55 S4=14.08 O=17.16 H=17.5 L=16.55 C=16.73 SPY PP=105.26 MP=105.65 R1=106.03 MP=106.39 R2=106.75 MP=107.50 R3=108.24 MP=108.99 R4=109.73 MP=104.90 S1=104.54 MP=104.16 S2=103.77 MP=103.03 S3=102.28 MP=101.54 S4=100.79 O=104.92 H=105.98 L=104.49 C=105.31 SPG PP=90.01 MP=90.62 R1=91.23 MP=91.63 R2=92.02 MP=93.02 R3=94.03 MP=95.03 R4=96.04 MP=89.62 S1=89.22 MP=88.61 S2=88.00 MP=86.99 S3=85.99 MP=84.98 S4=83.98 O=89.55 H=90.79 L=88.78 C=90.45 GS PP=136.91 MP=137.47 R1=138.03 MP=138.58 R2=139.13 MP=140.24 R3=141.35 MP=142.46 R4=143.57 MP=136.36 S1=135.81 MP=135.25 S2=134.69 MP=133.58 S3=132.47 MP=131.36 S4=130.25 O=136.25 H=138.01 L=135.79 C=136.93 JPM PP=36.24 MP=36.50 R1=36.76 MP=36.96 R2=37.15 MP=37.61 R3=38.06 MP=38.52 R4=38.97 MP=36.05 S1=35.85 MP=35.59 S2=35.33 MP=34.88 S3=34.42 MP=33.97 S4=33.51 O=35.94 H=36.64 L=35.73 C=36.36 MS PP=24.58 MP=24.75 R1=24.92 MP=25.04 R2=25.15 MP=25.44 R3=25.72 MP=26.01 R4=26.29 MP=24.47 S1=24.35 MP=24.18 S2=24.01 MP=23.73 S3=23.44 MP=23.16 S4=22.87 O=24.39 H=24.81 L=24.24 C=24.69 C PP=3.69 MP=3.72 R1=3.75 MP=3.77 R2=3.79 MP=3.84 R3=3.89 MP=3.94 R4=3.99 MP=3.67 S1=3.65 MP=3.62 S2=3.59 MP=3.54 S3=3.49 MP=3.44 S4=3.39 O=3.68 H=3.73 L=3.63 C=3.71 VIX PP=26.60 MP=26.94 R1=27.28 MP=27.89 R2=28.50 MP=29.45 R3=30.40 MP=31.35 R4=32.30 MP=25.99 S1=25.38 MP=25.04 S2=24.70 MP=23.75 S3=22.80 MP=21.85 S4=20.90 O=27.58 H=27.83 L=25.93 C=26.05 UUP PP=24.11 MP=24.14 R1=24.16 MP=24.19 R2=24.21 MP=24.26 R3=24.31 MP=24.36 R4=24.41 MP=24.09 S1=24.06 MP=24.04 S2=24.01 MP=23.96 S3=23.91 MP=23.86 S4=23.81 O=24.08 H=24.15 L=24.05 C=24.12 FROM: www.econoday.comEconomic Events & Analysis - 9/01/2010 WednesdayMotor Vehicle Sales Released on 9/1/2010 For Aug, 2010 Prior Consensus Consensus Range Domestic Vehicle Sales 8.9 M 8.7 M 8.6 M to 9.0 M Market Consensus Before Announcement Sales of domestic light motor vehicles made a comeback in July, rising to an 8.7 million annual rate compared to June's 8.4 million. Combined light truck and auto sales of domestics and imports rose to 11.5 million units annualized from 11.2 million the month before. The biggest source of strength in July was a 4.8 percent jump in domestic light trucks which includes SUVs, vans, and minivans. According to industry sources, most of the July boost in sales came from fleet purchases by such as rental car agencies. So, sales in August may come off this boost in July. 7:00 AM ET MBA Purchase Applications 7:30 AM ET Challenger Job-Cut Report 8:15 AM ET ADP Employment Report 10:00 AM ET ISM Mfg Index Released on 9/1/2010 10:00:00 AM For Aug, 2010 Prior Consensus Consensus Range ISM Mfg Index - Level 55.5 53.0 51.5 to 54.5 Market Consensus Before Announcement The composite index from the ISM manufacturing survey eased to 55.5 from 56.2 in June – but still reflected moderate growth in activity as the reading topped the breakeven point of 50. Production slowed nearly 4-1/2 points in July to what for now is a still very strong 57.0. Looking ahead, we may see more moderation in the composite in August as the July new orders index fell to 53.5 from 58.5 in June. 10:00 AM ET Construction Spending Released on 9/1/2010 10:00:00 AM For Jul, 2010 Prior Consensus Consensus Range Construction Spending - M/M change 0.1 % -0.6 % -1.2 % to 0.3 % Market Consensus Before Announcement Construction spending in June edged up 0.1 percent, following a 1.0 percent drop in May. The June rebound was led by a 1.5 percent jump in public outlays, following a 0.3 percent decline the prior month. In contrast, the private residential component declined 0.8 percent and private nonresidential outlays slipped 0.5 percent in June. Looking ahead, there likely will be weakness in at least the residential component of outlays as housing starts have been on a downtrend April. The May and June starts declines of 13.4 percent and 8.7 percent, respectively, should weigh on outlays despite a 1.7 percent uptick in starts in July. 10:30 AM ET EIA Petroleum Status Report 10:45 AM ET Elizabeth Duke Speaks 12:30 PM ET Richard Fisher Speaks Additional World wide Economic Calendar information can be found at the following website. worldeconomiccalendar.com/NOTE: The previous days OHLC data for todays PPDT was gathered from finance.yahoo.com for each individual stock by a series of webquerys built into a spreadsheet. The formulas used by the www.mypivots.com website to create the Pivot Points were found in the sites help files. The formulas were built into the spreadsheet which acts on the previous days OHLC data gathered from Yahoo. The Pivot Points were created using the formulas from www.mypivots.com but NOT by using the site. Please let me know if you find any errors in the data. Use of this data is at your own risk.
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Post by ask2lern on Sept 1, 2010 5:47:59 GMT -5
Thanks for the info Bros and Kryptos ……….Here are the pivots……….…hope everyone has a great day …………………GLTA
GOLD
R4 1295.17 midpoint 1286.77 R3 1278.37 midpoint 1269.97 R2 1261.57 Midpoint 1258.35 R1 1255.13 midpoint 1249.95
PP 1244.77
midpoint 1241.55 S1 1238.33 midpoint 1233.15 S2 1227.97 midpoint 1219.57 S3 1211.17 midpoint 1202.77 S4 1194.37
SILVER
R4 20.73 midpoint 20.49 R3 20.24 midpoint 20.00 R2 19.75 midpoint 19.67 R1 19.59 midpoint 19.43
PP 19.26
midpoint 19.18 S1 19.10 midpoint 18.94 S2 18.77 midpoint 18.53 S3 18.28 midpoint 18.04 S4 17.79
IMW
R3 62.06 R2 61.48 R1 60.83
PP 60.25
S1 59.60 S2 59.02 S3 58.37
TNA
R4 39.97 midpoint 38.95 R3 37.92 midpoint 36.90 R2 35.87 midpoint 35.35 R1 34.82 midpoint 34.32
PP 33.82
midpoint 33.30 S1 32.77 midpoint 32.27 S2 31.77 midpoint 30.75 S3 29.72 midpoint 28.70 S4 27.67
TZA
R4 45.68 Midpoint 44.46 R3 43.25 midpoint 42.03 R2 40.82 midpoint 40.22 R1 39.61 midpoint 39.00
PP 38.39
midpoint 37.79 S1 37.18 midpoint 36.57 S2 35.96 midpoint 34.74 S3 33.53 midpoint 32.31 S4 31.10
SDS
R3 36.87 R2 36.42 R1 35.88 PP 35.43
S1 34.89 S2 34.44 S3 33.90
………………………..GLTA
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Post by ask2lern on Sept 1, 2010 5:51:32 GMT -5
From www.optionmonster.com ..........................................GL Jobs, autos, manufacturing on the calendarSeptember 1, 2010 Wed 5:46 AM CT Today is the busiest day of the week for economic releases, with important news about the auto sector, energy, employment, construction and manufacturing.Motor Vehicle Sales will be reported separately by each manufacturer, with the news typically beginning at noon eastern time. That hour is not fixed, and some companies can report much earlier. Ford Motor, Toyota Motor, and Honda Motor could move on the news. Uploaded with ImageShack.usThe Mortgage Banker Association will report Purchase Applications at 7 am. I only cover the purchases component of the report as it is indicative of new activity. Purchases last week came in at 170.5. A reading higher or lower by 5 percent or more would be bullish or bearish, respectively.The SPDR S&P Homebuilders (XHB), Financial Select Sector SPDR (XLF), iShares Dow Jones U.S. Homebuilders (ITB), and iShares Dow Jones U.S. Real Estate (IYR), along with their member stocks, could be active on this report. Given the big drop in interest rates recently, we can expect refinancing to be strong. Challenger Job Cut Report will be released at 7:30am. It will be the first report of the week concerning employment, and is considered a leading indicator of future employment trends. There are no consensus estimates available for this release, but August’s report came in at 41,676 jobs cut. If the number comes in higher than the prior month by 20 percent or more, it would be bearish. A reading lower by 20 percent or more would be bullish. The ADP Employment Report at 8:15am will be the main job-related news for the day, with payrolls expected to growing by just 19,000. The range is extremely wide, from a very bearish loss of 80,000 jobs at the low end to a very bullish gain of 65,000 jobs at the high end. If the report comes in close to or further than the extremes of the range, the reaction is likely to be equally dramatic. The Institute for Supply Management’s Manufacturing Index will be reported at 10am. Forecasts call for a small drop to 53 from the previous 55.5. The range is narrow, from a bearish 49.9 to a bullish 56 is. The Industrial SPDR (XLI), along with its member stocks, may be active on this release. Construction Spending will also be released at 10am, although it is likely that the ISM manufacturing index will take precedence. Consensus calls for a 0.5 percent contraction. The estimates range from a bearish -1.6 percent to a bullish gain of 0.8 percent. The SPDR S&P Homebuilders, along with its constituents, could be active. The last report of the day is the EIA Petroleum Status Report at 10:30am. On Tuesday night after market close, the American Petroleum Institute released its crude inventory data. The API is a private industry group, versus the government-run EIA. The API data and the EIA data do not always correlate. API forecast a build of 1.1 million barrels. This is the same estimate the EIA used. API reported a much larger build of 4.765 million barrels. Large builds are usually bearish for crude pricing. If the EIA inventory data shows an equally large build, it would likely be bearish. A smaller build or a negative number indicating a draw would likely be bullish for crude pricing. The United States Oil Fund (USO) and the Energy Select Sector SPDR (XLE), along with its underlying, may be active on this release. (Chart courtesy of tradeMONSTER) By: Bryan McCormick
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Post by ask2lern on Sept 1, 2010 5:52:55 GMT -5
From http://www.optionsmonster.com....................GL
Indexes at hair-trigger levels September 1, 2010 Wed 5:15 AM CT
Once again, there are no changes for levels today. Despite some fairly strong action in individual stocks, the indexes finished virtually flat on the day. It appears we will have to see each economic release digested before we will see any significant movement.
For the bulls, the concern will be that poor news with indexes near major support could see that support broken. For the bears, the issue is the opposite: Unexpected good economic news with indexes at lows would give the bulls plenty of room on the upside.
Nasdaq 100 (NDX)
First support is at 1765.36. First resistance is at 1793.43.
For the NASDAQ 100 Index Tracking Stock (QQQQ) first support is at $43.46. First resistance is at $44.12.
S&P 500 (SPX)
First support is at 1046.68. First resistance is at 1080.
For the Standard and Poor's Depository Receipts (SPY) first support is at $104.97. First resistance is at $108.
Russell 2000 (RUT)
First support is at 588.58. First major resistance is at 620.
For the iShares Trust Russell 2000 Index Fund (IWM) first support is at $58.88. First resistance is at $62.
By: Bryan McCormick
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Post by abdogman on Sept 1, 2010 7:08:56 GMT -5
Bros,Kryptos,and Ask thx for the info and nmbrs
Good Morning Gang......should be interesting....back for the Open..GLTA!
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Post by abdogman on Sept 1, 2010 7:16:02 GMT -5
0815 EDT August ADP Employment Change -10K vs +13K Briefing.com consensus
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Post by brosin on Sept 1, 2010 8:05:04 GMT -5
Posted on the board and in the Charts and Chats as well - did I mention I think it's significant? Something is definitely up guys. FFR popped .02% to .21% - that's a hugely bullish move (it had stayed at .19% like a rock the past 6 sessions even while the market was dropping). .21% is a new 4 month high and the most bullish its been since mid April.
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Post by ukarlewitz on Sept 1, 2010 8:28:01 GMT -5
SMB Morning Rundown – September 1, 2010 Sep 1st, 2010 | By smbcapital | Category: Trading Ideas
Today, the Market appears set to open higher. The levels we are watching in the SPYs are 107.20 and 107.60 (resistance), 106.30 and 106.00 (support).
Our best AM Idea for today, which we highlighted in our AM Meeting is to use 43.90 in X as an inflection point. As a bonus get long INTU above 43.25.
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Post by deadmoney95 on Sept 1, 2010 8:32:59 GMT -5
Guesstimates on September 1, 2010 from Carl Futia by Carl Futia
September S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate is 1055-1070. The ES is making another attempt at an upside breakout from its recent trading range. I think it will succeed and if it does the market will be headed for 1140 and higher
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Post by abdogman on Sept 1, 2010 8:34:41 GMT -5
xlf 13.76 on 1m
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Post by abdogman on Sept 1, 2010 8:39:23 GMT -5
BB's tight on UUP and eur/usd on 1m
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Post by ccash04 on Sept 1, 2010 8:45:19 GMT -5
x didn't stay above 43.90 for long, maybe it will make another run at it after ISM
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Post by ccash04 on Sept 1, 2010 8:46:57 GMT -5
Cloud names kicking ass, VMW, CRM, APKT..
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Post by abdogman on Sept 1, 2010 8:49:38 GMT -5
BB's on 1m xlf fas faz tna tza tight xlf 13.74 on 1m
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Post by abdogman on Sept 1, 2010 8:54:21 GMT -5
xlf 13.78 on 1m tight tight tight bb's for 1000EDT
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Post by theMIST on Sept 1, 2010 8:56:20 GMT -5
Watching Flash Low 1065.79. So far can't get sustained move above.
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Post by ask2lern on Sept 1, 2010 8:58:19 GMT -5
In SPY 107 PUTS @ 2.31................my SPY #'s currently R HOD S106.9.....................GL
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Post by abdogman on Sept 1, 2010 9:00:42 GMT -5
August ISM Manufacturing 56.3 vs 52.9 Briefing.com consensus, July 55.5
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Post by ukarlewitz on Sept 1, 2010 9:02:44 GMT -5
ZH: QE2 in as little as 3 weeks according to GS. Rip.
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Post by abdogman on Sept 1, 2010 9:02:54 GMT -5
xlf 13.86 on 1m vol over 3 mil shares xlf now 13.90 on 1m
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Post by brosin on Sept 1, 2010 9:03:18 GMT -5
Tick at +16326326234 there?
Wow
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Post by ask2lern on Sept 1, 2010 9:04:50 GMT -5
In SPY 107 PUTS @ 2.31................my SPY #'s currently R HOD S106.9.....................GL Ouch.................doubled avg is 2.03.........GL
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Post by abdogman on Sept 1, 2010 9:11:15 GMT -5
macd just went neg on 1m xlf fas xlf 13.90 on 1m
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Post by abdogman on Sept 1, 2010 9:16:47 GMT -5
xlf 13.93 on 1m
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Post by ccash04 on Sept 1, 2010 9:16:56 GMT -5
ZH: QE2 in as little as 3 weeks according to GS. Rip. Maybe QE2 will entail buying stocks specifically MU so I can win the OpEx Contest ;D ;D ;D
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Post by abdogman on Sept 1, 2010 9:18:48 GMT -5
BB's narrowing on 1m xlf fas tna faz tza
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Post by brosin on Sept 1, 2010 9:22:52 GMT -5
Anybody got the highest tick today? It had to have been through the roof I'm thinking.
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Post by ask2lern on Sept 1, 2010 9:27:27 GMT -5
In SPY 107 PUTS @ 2.31................my SPY #'s currently R HOD S106.9.....................GL Ouch.................doubled avg is 2.03.........GL Last add.......avg is now 1.96...................GL My current SPY #s....................R 108.02 S 107.84
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