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Post by kryptos2009 on Aug 23, 2010 22:10:02 GMT -5
Here is the PP Daily Thread (PPDT) data. XLF PP=13.80 MP=13.83 R1=13.86 MP=13.93 R2=13.99 MP=14.08 R3=14.18 MP=14.27 R4=14.37 MP=13.74 S1=13.67 MP=13.64 S2=13.61 MP=13.51 S3=13.42 MP=13.32 S4=13.23 O=13.9 H=13.92 L=13.73 C=13.74 FAS PP=18.88 MP=19.01 R1=19.13 MP=19.37 R2=19.61 MP=19.97 R3=20.34 MP=20.70 R4=21.07 MP=18.64 S1=18.40 MP=18.28 S2=18.15 MP=17.78 S3=17.42 MP=17.05 S4=16.69 O=19.31 H=19.35 L=18.62 C=18.66 FAZ PP=16.10 MP=16.30 R1=16.49 MP=16.60 R2=16.70 MP=17.00 R3=17.30 MP=17.60 R4=17.90 MP=16.00 S1=15.89 MP=15.70 S2=15.50 MP=15.20 S3=14.90 MP=14.60 S4=14.30 O=15.73 H=16.3 L=15.7 C=16.29 SPY PP=107.59 MP=107.85 R1=108.10 MP=108.60 R2=109.09 MP=109.84 R3=110.59 MP=111.34 R4=112.09 MP=107.10 S1=106.60 MP=106.35 S2=106.09 MP=105.34 S3=104.59 MP=103.84 S4=103.09 O=108.04 H=108.57 L=107.07 C=107.12 SPG PP=88.60 MP=88.90 R1=89.19 MP=89.78 R2=90.36 MP=91.24 R3=92.12 MP=93.00 R4=93.88 MP=88.02 S1=87.43 MP=87.14 S2=86.84 MP=85.96 S3=85.08 MP=84.20 S4=83.32 O=89.37 H=89.76 L=88 C=88.03 GS PP=147.28 MP=147.62 R1=147.96 MP=148.57 R2=149.18 MP=150.13 R3=151.08 MP=152.03 R4=152.98 MP=146.67 S1=146.06 MP=145.72 S2=145.38 MP=144.43 S3=143.48 MP=142.53 S4=141.58 O=148.12 H=148.5 L=146.6 C=146.74 JPM PP=37.04 MP=37.15 R1=37.25 MP=37.43 R2=37.61 MP=37.90 R3=38.18 MP=38.47 R4=38.75 MP=36.86 S1=36.68 MP=36.58 S2=36.47 MP=36.19 S3=35.90 MP=35.62 S4=35.33 O=37.21 H=37.41 L=36.84 C=36.88 MS PP=25.79 MP=25.97 R1=26.14 MP=26.25 R2=26.35 MP=26.63 R3=26.91 MP=27.19 R4=27.47 MP=25.69 S1=25.58 MP=25.41 S2=25.23 MP=24.95 S3=24.67 MP=24.39 S4=24.11 O=25.93 H=26.01 L=25.45 C=25.92 C PP=3.78 MP=3.79 R1=3.80 MP=3.83 R2=3.86 MP=3.90 R3=3.94 MP=3.98 R4=4.02 MP=3.75 S1=3.72 MP=3.71 S2=3.70 MP=3.66 S3=3.62 MP=3.58 S4=3.54 O=3.79 H=3.83 L=3.75 C=3.75 VIX PP=25.42 MP=25.82 R1=26.21 MP=26.49 R2=26.77 MP=27.44 R3=28.12 MP=28.79 R4=29.47 MP=25.14 S1=24.86 MP=24.47 S2=24.07 MP=23.39 S3=22.72 MP=22.04 S4=21.37 O=25.97 H=25.97 L=24.62 C=25.66 UUP PP=24.15 MP=24.19 R1=24.22 MP=24.25 R2=24.27 MP=24.33 R3=24.39 MP=24.45 R4=24.51 MP=24.13 S1=24.10 MP=24.07 S2=24.03 MP=23.97 S3=23.91 MP=23.85 S4=23.79 O=24.12 H=24.19 L=24.07 C=24.18 FROM: www.econoday.comEconomic Events & Analysis - 8/24/2010 Tuesday7:45 AM ET ICSC-Goldman Store Sales 8:00 AM ET Charles Evans Speaks 8:55 AM ET Redbook 10:00 AM ET Existing Home Sales Released on 8/24/2010 10:00:00 AM For Jul, 2010 Prior Consensus Consensus Range Existing Home Sales - Level - SAAR 5.37 M 4.650 M 3.960 M to 5.200 M Market Consensus Before Announcement Existing home sales in June dropped 5.1 percent, following a 2.2 percent decline the month before. Sales for the latest month came in at a 5.37 million annual rate and are up 9.8 percent on a year-ago basis, compared to up 19.2 percent in May. Sales could dip further in July as MBA purchase applications were weak. 11:30 AM ET 4-Week Bill Auction 11:30 AM ET 52-Week Bill Auction 1:00 PM ET 2-Yr Note Auction NOTE: The previous days OHLC data for todays PPDT was gathered from finance.yahoo.com for each individual stock by a series of webquerys built into a spreadsheet. The formulas used by the www.mypivots.com website to create the Pivot Points were found in the sites help files. The formulas were built into the spreadsheet which acts on the previous days OHLC data gathered from Yahoo. The Pivot Points were created using the formulas from www.mypivots.com but NOT by using the site. Please let me know if you find any errors in the data. Use of this data is at your own risk.
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Post by brosin on Aug 24, 2010 1:28:46 GMT -5
Caldaro: Today's follow through rally from friday's low at SPX 1064 took the market to SPX 1082. The pullback that followed, to SPX 1069, closed the opening gap and then the market tried to rally again. When the rally failed to gather any upside momentum after hitting only SPX 1075 the market headed lower again and closed near the lows for the day at SPX 1067. This was not much of a rally after a good technical setup on friday. Important support remains at the 1058 pivot, and uptrend support at the 1041 pivot. Cobra: The bottom line: 1. A short-term rebound still is possible. I’m not very sure though because 0.2.5 NYSE Total Volume is still very low, doesn’t look like a bottom pattern. 2. Since I see another not so bull friendly intermediate-term signal, so I’m relatively sure that intermediate-term is bearish. Bespoke: *So much* good stuff here and on Ritholtz's blog on a daily basis - while they are long and take a few minutes to soak in, I gain so much from them. I encourage the regulars to actually click the link and go to the page because of the images provided with the commentary. I don't want to make this post ridiculously long and thus try to avoid uploading the images and putting them in here when they are too big or cumbersome. -A Long Row to HoeWe recently calculated the distance from all-time highs for the stocks in the S&P 500. For the entire index, the median stock would have to rise 77.25% to get back to its all-time high. Below we have broken down the median distance from all-time highs by sector. As shown, the Technology sector, which obviously bubbled up and burst in 2000, has the highest median distance from all-time highs at 207%. Telecom ranks second worst at 123.15%, and then Energy and Financials -- which got hit hard during the 2008 crash -- rank 3rd and 4th worst at 104.71% and 108.84% respectively. Stocks in the Consumer Staples sector are closest to their all-time highs. The median stock in Consumer Staples is 36.71% away from its all-time high. Surprisingly, Industrials ranks second best at 52.03%, followed by Health Care, Utilities, Consumer Discretionary, and then Materials. So which stocks in the S&P 500 are closest to their all-time highs? Below are all names in the index that need to gain 15% or less to get to all-time highs. There are 15 that are basically trading at all-time highs right now (within 5%). Airgas (ARG), McDonald's (MCD), AutoZone (AZO), and Wisconsin Energy (WEC) are the closest at less than 1%. -Q2 Earnings Growth Beats ExpectationsBelow is a chart of actual versus estimated year-over-year earnings growth in the second quarter of 2010. The estimates are from early July just before earnings season started. As shown, earnings for the entire S&P 500 grew just under 50% in Q2 versus Q2 2009. This is 15 percentage points higher than the estimate of 34% just before reports started getting released. The Financial sector had the biggest growth at 119.2%, which was also the widest gap versus expectations. Analysts were looking for growth of 80.8%. Materials had the second highest growth at 104.5%, followed by Energy at 99.5%. Consumer Discretionary had the second best reading versus expectations with a difference of +32.2%. Telecom, Consumer Staples, and Health Care all had growth of less than 10%, but they all came in better than expected. In fact, every sector came in stronger than expected. The Technology sector saw strong growth at 53.6%, but it was also closest to what analysts expected, meaning the earnings numbers for this sector didn't surprise people to the upside at all. -Existing Home Sales Expected to Be Down in the DumpsJuly Existing Home Sales are set to be released tomorrow morning at 10 AM ET. If the actual number comes in at the estimate of 4.65 million homes, it will be the weakest reading since March 2009 when 4.61 million existing homes were sold. As shown below, this will basically be right at the levels seen at the crisis lows in late '08 and early '09. And there's no guarantee that the actual number will come in close to expectations. Many think sales will come in much worse than expected. This is coming at a time when 30-year fixed mortgage rates are well below 5%. -Asia's Daily Impact on US MarketsLast Thursday we posted an interesting chart that basically highlighted the correlation between the market futures before the open and the action during regular trading hours. We showed that historically, the S&P 500 SPY ETF has basically gone in the same direction at the open as it has from the open to the close 50% of the time. The other half of the time, the market went in the opposite direction during the day as it went in the pre-market. Some of the comments on that post suggested we look at the correlation between the previous day's action and the next day's action as well as the daily correlation between Europe's markets and the US. To compare Europe and the US, we would have to see where Europe's markets were trading when the US opens, and since that's in the middle of Europe's trading day, we need intraday pricing. Unfortunately, we don't have intraday pricing for most foreign indices. We can, however, see how often the US trades in the same direction as Asian markets since they close before the US opens. Below we highlight the number of times over rolling 50 trading day periods that the S&P 500 has gone in the opposite direction of the S&P Asia 50 Index. Historically, the average number of trading days that the US has gone in the opposite direction of Asia over a 50-day period is 22. That means that the US trades in the same direction as the Asian markets on a daily basis about 56% of the time. As shown in the chart, this indicator does fluctuate from low levels of correlation to high levels of correlation, and we just ended a period where the two were trading in tandem with each other more often than not. Over the last 50 days, however, the two have gone in the opposite direction 22 times, which is right inline with the historical average. Ritholtz: Is the Fed Pushing on a String ?Yield Heading Lower ? The following via Ron Griess of The Chart Store *ABOUT US!* How much do you think Barron's paid Mr. O'Brien to write an article about something we discuss daily? ;D Beware Leveraged ETF Slippage Good article from Bob O’Brien in Barron’s warning about the dangers of 2X Short funds: Beware of Leveraged Short ETFs. Its not just the short leveraged ETFs, its all of the leveraged ETFs that have the same slippage characteristic over time. As anyone who has ever traded them can tell you, they fail to track their benchmark dollar for dollar. This is because they use futures contracts and swaps, and are reset each day. The slippage from their targets us anywhere from 200 to 500 basis points — the longer the time held, the greater the potential slippage. (We use the 2 for 1 leveraged ETFs, both long and short). Barron’s: “These short ETF funds – and there are 39 of them available – afford investors the opportunity to capitalize on a market decline in a relatively inexpensive, accessible fashion. Like all ETFs, these products are listed, so they trade like stocks. Their associated fees are half – or less – than the cost of comparable mutual funds. And because many of these products use leverage – mainly through the use of swaps – investors can effectively double or triple their exposure to a market decline at no additional cost or risk. So if you’re betting that the market is going to fall, leveraged short ETFs have a lot of appeal, at least conceptually. Their performance in the last three months testifies to that appeal. Since the S&P 500 topped out this year on April 23rd, the ProShares UltraShort S&P 500 has gained 20%. By comparison, the S&P 500 itself has lost 12%.” Note that the ProShares UltraShort S&P 500 (SDS) has about $3.7 billion of AUM, and is the most popular ETF of its kind . . .
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Post by ask2lern on Aug 24, 2010 6:50:54 GMT -5
Thanks for the info Bros and Krypto ……….Here are the pivots……….…hope you all have a good day …………………GLTA
GOLD
R4 1251.37 midpoint 1247.12 R3 1242.87 midpoint 1238.62 R2 1234.37 Midpoint 1232.50 R1 1230.63 midpoint 1228.25
PP 1225.87
midpoint 1224.00 S1 1222.13 midpoint 1219.75 S2 1217.37 midpoint 1213.12 S3 1208.87 midpoint 1204.62 S4 1200.37
SILVER
R4 18.56 midpoint 18.47 R3 18.37 midpoint 18.28 R2 18.18 midpoint 18.14 R1 18.10 midpoint 18.05
PP 17.99
midpoint 17.95 S1 17.91 midpoint 17.86 S2 17.80 midpoint 17.71 S3 17.61 midpoint 17.52 S4 17.42
IMW
R3 63.04 R2 62.48 R1 61.40
PP 60.84
S1 59.76 S2 59.20 S3 58.12
TNA
R4 43.47 midpoint 42.05 R3 40.64 midpoint 39.22 R2 37.81 midpoint 36.87 R1 35.93 midpoint 35.46
PP 34.98
midpoint 34.04 S1 33.10 midpoint 32.63 S2 32.15 midpoint 30.73 S3 29.32 midpoint 27.90 S4 26.49
TZA
R4 46.65 Midpoint 45.17 R3 43.69 midpoint 42.21 R2 40.73 midpoint 40.22 R1 39.71 midpoint 38.74
PP 37.77
midpoint 37.26 S1 36.75 midpoint 35.78 S2 34.81 midpoint 33.33 S3 31.85 midpoint 30.37 S4 28.89
SDS
R3 35.59 R2 34.97 R1 34.64 PP 34.02
S1 33.69 S2 33.07 S3 32.74
FWIW I like oil at 69-70 and I will add to my LT holdings if we get there………………………..GLTA
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Post by ask2lern on Aug 24, 2010 6:52:18 GMT -5
From http://www.optionmonster.com.........................GLTA
Indexes break support August 24, 2010 Tue 4:27 AM CT
The action on Monday was relatively muted, but it was still an important day. With the exception of the Nasdaq 100, both the S&P 500 and the Russell 2000 broke support. As I noted in an article on the Russell 2000, a bearish head and shoulders pattern near triggering. A lower close tomorrow would confirm that the pattern is active. The Nasdaq 100 missed breaking support at the close by less than a point.
New support levels are in place for Tuesday, but I have left resistance where it is for the moment. With some macro news hitting the tape, any positive surprise could see us move back toward the upper end of the range. With the indexes near the multi-month trading lows, it would not be a shock to see the bulls attempt to spring a bear trap. What isn't clear is whether such a move would get traction in a decidedly thin-volume environment.
Nasdaq 100 (NDX)
First support is at 1801.74. First resistance is at 1846.20, the 50-day moving average.
For the NASDAQ 100 Index Tracking Stock (QQQQ) first support is at $44.30. First resistance is at $45.39.
S&P 500 (SPX)
First support is at 1063.91. First resistance is at 1088.59, the 50-day moving average.
For the Standard and Poor's Depository Receipts (SPY) first support is at $106.75. First resistance is at $109.05.
Russell 2000 (RUT)
First support is at 595.39. First major resistance is at 618.02.
For the iShares Trust Russell 2000 Index Fund (IWM) first support is at $59.42. First resistance is at $61.92.
(Chart courtesy of tradeMONSTER)
By: Bryan McCormick
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Post by abdogman on Aug 24, 2010 7:44:57 GMT -5
Good Morning Gang....Kryptos ,Ask and Bros Thx for info and nmbrs back for the open.....
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Post by cashfilly on Aug 24, 2010 8:21:41 GMT -5
Good Morning All and thanks for all the great input....don't u love pre-open when the moves overnight were so big that they have to move the charts to allow the shorts more room for gains and longs to go down...hmmm
Good Luck!
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Post by ccash04 on Aug 24, 2010 8:26:38 GMT -5
Its that USDJPY, not pretty.. I say markets rally when Japan devalues, I mean does some QE of their own.
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Post by ccash04 on Aug 24, 2010 8:31:10 GMT -5
Time to drop then climb?? Or is everyone waiting for housing numbers
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Post by abdogman on Aug 24, 2010 8:34:03 GMT -5
xlf 13.59 on 1m
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Post by Clinton SPX on Aug 24, 2010 8:34:21 GMT -5
El Diablo!!!
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Post by ccash04 on Aug 24, 2010 8:34:35 GMT -5
Carl F:
Today I'll be watching the market's action relative to the May 6 low at 1056 and the July 20 low at 1051. I am expecting a low to form today and from that low a rally above the 1127 level. Today's range estimate is 1047-1067. I think that a new upward leg in the bull market started from the 1003 low made July 5.
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Post by abdogman on Aug 24, 2010 8:34:56 GMT -5
Time to drop then climb?? Or is everyone waiting for housing numbers waiting.....some baked in already?
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Post by ccash04 on Aug 24, 2010 8:35:50 GMT -5
LVS has shaved off quite a bit in the past 2 days.
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Post by ccash04 on Aug 24, 2010 8:38:24 GMT -5
Time to drop then climb?? Or is everyone waiting for housing numbers waiting.....some baked in already? I was thinking the same thing.. Now that this drop has already occurred might rally.. Seems crazy when they expect such a sharp month to month decline.
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Post by ccash04 on Aug 24, 2010 8:39:00 GMT -5
Hindenberg Omen believers must be smiling somewhere
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Post by Clinton SPX on Aug 24, 2010 8:40:07 GMT -5
this going lower, i see nothing on spy
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Post by abdogman on Aug 24, 2010 8:43:06 GMT -5
BB's narrowing on 1m for aud/jpy eur/usd vix opened at 28.08 and went sideways from there xlf still 13.585 on 1m
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Post by Clinton SPX on Aug 24, 2010 8:45:45 GMT -5
some brave dip buyers
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Post by abdogman on Aug 24, 2010 8:48:28 GMT -5
BB's narrowing on 1m for xlf fas faz xlf 13.56 on 1m
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Post by abdogman on Aug 24, 2010 8:49:26 GMT -5
on the edge....which way
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Post by cashfilly on Aug 24, 2010 8:51:22 GMT -5
XLF 7/1 low was 13.34.....fyi
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Post by abdogman on Aug 24, 2010 8:53:29 GMT -5
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Post by jack on Aug 24, 2010 8:53:36 GMT -5
...patience - will know in 5-6mins
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Post by ccash04 on Aug 24, 2010 8:53:52 GMT -5
Treasuries just going bonkers.
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Post by ukarlewitz on Aug 24, 2010 8:55:07 GMT -5
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Post by ccash04 on Aug 24, 2010 8:57:42 GMT -5
Should have listened to my own advice 3 months ago when I talked about the 114-116 Dec. call spread in TLT for like .1
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Post by abdogman on Aug 24, 2010 9:00:27 GMT -5
xlf dropping now 13.51 big vol
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Post by abdogman on Aug 24, 2010 9:01:11 GMT -5
July Existing Home Sales 3.83 mln vs 4.72 mln Briefing.com consensus; M/M change -27.2%
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Post by ukarlewitz on Aug 24, 2010 9:04:54 GMT -5
Spy - 105 is both horizontal pivot support as well as the back test of the April down trend line fsc.bz/64Z
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Post by ccash04 on Aug 24, 2010 9:05:20 GMT -5
Yeah, I was wrong oh well not the first time..
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