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Post by jack on Aug 17, 2010 10:52:48 GMT -5
....knew I shouldna invoked the Rally Monkey sorry
XLF & SPY macd's rolling over on the 5min (already did on the xlf's 1min)
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Post by brosin on Aug 17, 2010 10:55:20 GMT -5
It looks like I'm either going to have to settle for only 3 out of 5 units FAS or I'll have to avg up at some point, which doesn't seem as fun.
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Post by abdogman on Aug 17, 2010 10:56:22 GMT -5
Going to do Dogs and lunch .......GLTA....back as usual
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Post by cosmic on Aug 17, 2010 10:58:17 GMT -5
It looks like I'm either going to have to settle for only 3 out of 5 units FAS or I'll have to avg up at some point, which doesn't seem as fun. I'm so unused to that... |
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Post by brosin on Aug 17, 2010 10:59:16 GMT -5
It looks like I'm either going to have to settle for only 3 out of 5 units FAS or I'll have to avg up at some point, which doesn't seem as fun. I'm so unused to that... Me too, except for when I'm short something! |
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Post by jack on Aug 17, 2010 11:03:42 GMT -5
Dude on CNBC's talking about his "House of Cards" Bros. Did he steal your thesis?
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Post by brosin on Aug 17, 2010 11:07:10 GMT -5
lol, those crooks. David Faber was the first CNBC head to steal it  |
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Post by sloop on Aug 17, 2010 11:08:26 GMT -5
Hey what happened? I just woke up.....I put in a buy order for 5000 FAS at 19.95 last night and I could not believe my eyes when I saw my account just now. Whats up with the market?  |
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Post by brosin on Aug 17, 2010 11:10:22 GMT -5
Hey what happened? I just woke up.....I put in a buy order for 5000 FAS at 19.95 last night and I could not believe my eyes when I saw my account just now. Whats up with the market? Obama resigned Sloop! ;D Nah, but really nothing other than POT rejecting a buyout offer at 20% premium to yest's closing price. Congrats on the trade, you were .02 off the bottom! |
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Post by cosmic on Aug 17, 2010 11:12:56 GMT -5
Feels a little toppy here, at least for the day, everything withering according to plan.
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Post by deadmoney95 on Aug 17, 2010 11:13:44 GMT -5
Carl F update: He's getting excited (I just wish he's acknowledge OPEX and the need for caution here)
Here is a 30 minute bar chart showing regular hours trading in the e-minis. After spending three days trading below the last low at 1083.50 (horizontal green dash line) the market today opened well above it. So far it has traded as high as 1090.75 which puts it right at the top of a small trading area that formed late on August 11 (red arrows).
Any strength above 1092 and especially a close today above 1085 will be very bullish. It would represent an upside breakout from the lower blue dash trading area, one that is almost as big as the one which started this break (blue rectangles). Such action would make me abandon my 1050-60 target and start looking for continuation upward to 1140 and higher.
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Post by ccash04 on Aug 17, 2010 11:17:17 GMT -5
To go along with Cos a trade that's been working for me past 3 trading days is long X in the morning sesh and then fade the move up. Today was a monster move so maybe a tight stop but looks like it could fall.
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Post by Dualism on Aug 17, 2010 11:19:55 GMT -5
The final nail was the parabolic move in USTs yesterday (3 std deviations from the mean; essentially unprecedented). The move in the T's over the last 2 weeks has been astounding to say the least. I believe the relentless uptrend however was exhausted yesterday. The long put spreads, IMO, in TLT are very attractive. For example, long Sep 104 puts + short 103 puts (long put spread) is around $.46 |
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Post by ccash04 on Aug 17, 2010 11:20:40 GMT -5
Carl F update: He's getting excited (I just wish he's acknowledge OPEX and the need for caution here) Here is a 30 minute bar chart showing regular hours trading in the e-minis. After spending three days trading below the last low at 1083.50 (horizontal green dash line) the market today opened well above it. So far it has traded as high as 1090.75 which puts it right at the top of a small trading area that formed late on August 11 (red arrows). Any strength above 1092 and especially a close today above 1085 will be very bullish. It would represent an upside breakout from the lower blue dash trading area, one that is almost as big as the one which started this break (blue rectangles). Such action would make me abandon my 1050-60 target and start looking for continuation upward to 1140 and higher. I like it when Carl gets excited, but youre right never acknowledges OpEx. |
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Post by exabi on Aug 17, 2010 11:23:19 GMT -5
IWM doing a cliff dive??
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Post by natsalilfly on Aug 17, 2010 11:27:31 GMT -5
hope so - I had a buy order kicked in at 35.01 earlier |
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Post by cosmic on Aug 17, 2010 11:28:46 GMT -5
The final nail was the parabolic move in USTs yesterday (3 std deviations from the mean; essentially unprecedented). The move in the T's over the last 2 weeks has been astounding to say the least. I believe the relentless uptrend however was exhausted yesterday. The long put spreads, IMO, in TLT are very attractive. For example, long Sep 104 puts + short 103 puts (long put spread) is around $.46 Dual, I took a look at that and here was my chart/analysis:seems a very tight payoff range, or did I do something wrong (note I made this as close to delta-neutral as possible... if you did equal numbers of contracts it would be delta-negative.)  Uploaded with ImageShack.us |
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Post by natsalilfly on Aug 17, 2010 11:29:37 GMT -5
hope so - I had a buy order kicked in at 35.01 earlier for TZA I mean! |
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Post by cosmic on Aug 17, 2010 11:32:11 GMT -5
Now when I redid this with equal contracts, I think it's the kind of curve you were thinking of... (Imageshack has it's normal lunch congestion so this one is an attachment) Attachments:
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Post by brosin on Aug 17, 2010 11:34:24 GMT -5
Hey Cos, if you wouldn't mind, could you go through a quick rundown as to how one analyzes that chart you have pictured?
I see people posting those types of things, but I'm not going to lie - it is completely Chinese to me. Thanks! No hurry either.
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Post by ukarlewitz on Aug 17, 2010 11:34:50 GMT -5
Spy is back to ye olde yellow line at 109.9. Hence the pause. Bears should be mindful that there are now three clear higher Hs and Ls since the July bottom. Bulls now have to put in a higher H above 113 to make their case, while holding the last pivot L at 108. A very nice 5/50dma necktie at 109 holds good S.
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Post by Dualism on Aug 17, 2010 11:37:37 GMT -5
Cosmic, your analysis page shows the Sep104/103 long put spread has a cost of $.51 The right side of the chart looks correct to me. But the left side does not.  But the P/L is very simple for this example. Max loss is .51 Max gain is .49; realizable when TLT is under 103 at expiry. |
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Post by Dualism on Aug 17, 2010 11:42:16 GMT -5
Now when I redid this with equal contracts, I think it's the kind of curve you were thinking of... (Imageshack has it's normal lunch congestion so this one is an attachment) Your second analysis is right on. (Missed that you had unequal # of contracts.) I would not suggest naked short puts in TLT. But the other way around may work even better. 12 long puts for first leg to 10 short puts for the second leg. |
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Post by jack on Aug 17, 2010 11:47:03 GMT -5
As some more circumstantial evidence of a bullish move up consider that Mr Chauncey Gardner would like the POTash dealings in connection with the economy of course:
LOL!
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Post by brosin on Aug 17, 2010 11:51:17 GMT -5
Sooooooooooo...whadday'all think: Is FAS 20.50 the trading PP for the day??? lol!!! I'd love to know that too. I want to at least get my 4th FAS entry before it takes off on me. Wanted either 4 or 5, but I think I might be running out of time. I just made what could be a poor move - just took on unit #4 @ $20.40 (technically not really avging up since my avg was $20.38 already). Only way I'll go to #5 is if it goes under my $19.50 lowest entry so far, but I don't really think it will. |
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Post by natsalilfly on Aug 17, 2010 11:51:24 GMT -5
Spy is back to ye olde yellow line at 109.9. Hence the pause. Bears should be mindful that there are now three clear higher Hs and Ls since the July bottom. Bulls now have to put in a higher H above 113 to make their case, while holding the last pivot L at 108. A very nice 5/50dma necktie at 109 holds good S. the last 3 trading days have all traded below the July 30 low, and given the MAs that seems to be a lot of drag. However, I will be mindful! |
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Post by sp7015 on Aug 17, 2010 12:07:24 GMT -5
Don't you hate when you play conservative and lock in profits only for something to run up more.
I.E. Bought aapl $250 Aug calls for $1.68 yesterday. Sold them at $3.87 today when aapl stock was 252.33. Now the stock has ran up to 253.77 and the calls are worth $5.
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Post by jack on Aug 17, 2010 12:22:50 GMT -5
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Post by elle on Aug 17, 2010 12:23:39 GMT -5
iwm thru fib 38.2, 60' 50 - channel and fib 50 about 63.50 eod, but slanting upward
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Post by jack on Aug 17, 2010 12:25:41 GMT -5
xlf's 1min macd just rolled over - LOL!!!
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