PPDT - PP-XLF = 14.82 - 8/10 Tuesday

[brosin]

Caldaro: Friday afternoon's rally continued today as the market worked its way back to uptrend highs at SPX 1229. The recent pullback from SPX 1129 to 1107 can now be considered completed, and the next rally higher should be underway. OEW short term charts remain positive. FOMC meetings are historically volatile events, especially after the FED's statement around 2:00. We split the two potential short term counts, posting one one the SPX hourly and the other on the DOW hourly. Both suggest higher prices as Intermediate wave three unfolds. The two counts only pertain to the short term wave structure.


Cobra:
-Not much to say today. All are waiting for the Fed to announce the Quantitative Easing II tomorrow. Personally, I don’t think Fed will announce the Quantitative Easing II tomorrow, but I have no idea on how the market will react to this (if no announcement), although from the chart below, the Fed day was mostly bullish.

-The bottom line, short-term trend is up, but I hold no long position overnight and cut short position trapped last Friday at close simply because I have to follow my short-term model strictly (even though I still think a top of some kind is very close now). Don’t get confused by my short-term model with the SPY ST Model which long is still there but the stop loss has been adjusted several times, hope you’ve seen that. As I’ve mentioned several time before, the SPY ST Model is designed to hold the position as long as possible, so you have to find appropriate time to take partial profit by yourself, especially before tomorrow’s FOMC that may cause the market to move dramatically in nobody knows direction.


Bespoke:
-Things didn't look too promising entering afternoon trading on Friday, but by the end of the day, there was a reversal of fortunes. Below is a six-month daily price chart of the S&P 500 along with a 15-day intraday chart. As shown, the index dipped below its 200-day moving average on Friday but managed to rally back and close above it by the end of the day. Looking at the 15-day intraday chart, the index held the bottom of its uptrend channel nicely all day. Entering the new trading week, the S&P's technicals look pretty good. With futures pointing higher, it looks like traders are going to try and at least test the highs made last week.

-Early this year, we made numerous references to the S&P 500's notable strength on the first trading day of the week. From Labor Day '09 through mid-May, the index traded higher on the first trading day of the week 81% of the time. In late May, however, the Monday Bull ran into trouble, and the S&P 500 had six straight weeks where Monday (or Tuesday when Monday was a holiday) was a down day. Since the start of the second quarter, the Monday bull market has gotten back on track, and with today's rally the S&P 500 is on pace for its sixth straight up first day of the week.

Ritholtz:

(Have I mentioned I like this guy? I can't condense his stuff)

Economic “Do Not Fly” List

The Treasury Dept today announced that they had begun compiling a list of the economically insane, and will be publishing this list on a regular basis, according to a Washington Post article.

The reason for this: Commentaries regarding mortgage refinancing and/or forgiveness — from both political and investment players — that the Treasury department said could only be described as “ridiculous.”

WaPo:

“Don’t get your hopes up. And that’s a good thing, since ushering in a refinancing boom would only be a short-term fix for the housing market and the economy that would have long-term consequences. A widespread refinancing of loans would mean reverting to looser lending standards, one of the things that got us into this mess. It could also boost mortgage rates for new borrowers and force U.S. taxpayers to shoulder more risk, since they technically own Fannie and Freddie . . .

“We have been reading an increasing amount of absurd commentary from people who should know better,” said fictional Treasury spokesperson Ivan Tobyrael. “Much of this has crossed the line from economically implausible to criminally insane. As much as it is a waste of time, we thought it was time to clarify facts for the reality challenged.“

An unnamed Treasury official said the department was thinking of creating an economic “Do Not Fly” list. “Some of these people are dangerous to themselves and others. We want to keep them away from sharp objects.”

Treasury noted a few specific examples of what they described as “frickin’ crazy”:

-A major Wire House (and TARP recipient) suggestion we abandon loan to value standards to allow more refinancings of homes likely to default as “Uncle Sam is on the hook anyway.”

-Reuters suggestion that the GSEs are about to embark on a massive loan forgiveness program.

Said another fictional spokes-avatar: “We don’t know what they are smoking over at Reuters, but it is obviously some powerful shit.”

Either that, or the heat is frying their brains . . .

[kryptos2009]

Here is the PP Daily Thread (PPDT) data.


XLF PP=14.82
MP=14.88 R1=14.94 MP=14.98 R2=15.01 MP=15.11 R3=15.20 MP=15.30 R4=15.39
MP=14.79 S1=14.75 MP=14.69 S2=14.63 MP=14.54 S3=14.44 MP=14.35 S4=14.25
O=14.85 H=14.9 L=14.71 C=14.86

FAS PP=23.18
MP=23.42 R1=23.66 MP=23.83 R2=23.99 MP=24.39 R3=24.80 MP=25.20 R4=25.61
MP=23.02 S1=22.85 MP=22.61 S2=22.37 MP=21.96 S3=21.56 MP=21.15 S4=20.75
O=23.24 H=23.5 L=22.69 C=23.34

FAZ PP=13.37
MP=13.47 R1=13.56 MP=13.71 R2=13.85 MP=14.09 R3=14.33 MP=14.57 R4=14.81
MP=13.23 S1=13.08 MP=12.99 S2=12.89 MP=12.65 S3=12.41 MP=12.17 S4=11.93
O=13.35 H=13.67 L=13.19 C=13.26

SPY PP=112.83
MP=113.09 R1=113.34 MP=113.52 R2=113.69 MP=114.12 R3=114.55 MP=114.98 R4=115.41
MP=112.66 S1=112.48 MP=112.23 S2=111.97 MP=111.54 S3=111.11 MP=110.68 S4=110.25
O=112.92 H=113.18 L=112.32 C=112.99

SPG PP=93.48
MP=93.81 R1=94.13 MP=94.36 R2=94.59 MP=95.15 R3=95.70 MP=96.26 R4=96.81
MP=93.25 S1=93.02 MP=92.70 S2=92.37 MP=91.82 S3=91.26 MP=90.71 S4=90.15
O=93.55 H=93.94 L=92.83 C=93.67

GS PP=155.40
MP=155.80 R1=156.20 MP=156.61 R2=157.01 MP=157.81 R3=158.62 MP=159.42 R4=160.23
MP=155.00 S1=154.59 MP=154.19 S2=153.79 MP=152.98 S3=152.18 MP=151.37 S4=150.57
O=155.93 H=156.2 L=154.59 C=155.4

JPM PP=40.01
MP=40.19 R1=40.37 MP=40.64 R2=40.91 MP=41.36 R3=41.81 MP=42.26 R4=42.71
MP=39.74 S1=39.47 MP=39.29 S2=39.11 MP=38.66 S3=38.21 MP=37.76 S4=37.31
O=40.55 H=40.56 L=39.66 C=39.82

MS PP=27.53
MP=27.64 R1=27.75 MP=27.91 R2=28.06 MP=28.32 R3=28.59 MP=28.85 R4=29.12
MP=27.38 S1=27.22 MP=27.11 S2=27.00 MP=26.73 S3=26.47 MP=26.20 S4=25.94
O=27.8 H=27.83 L=27.3 C=27.45

C PP=4.07
MP=4.10 R1=4.13 MP=4.16 R2=4.18 MP=4.24 R3=4.29 MP=4.35 R4=4.40
MP=4.05 S1=4.02 MP=3.99 S2=3.96 MP=3.91 S3=3.85 MP=3.80 S4=3.74
O=4.08 H=4.12 L=4.01 C=4.08

VIX PP=22.12
MP=22.51 R1=22.89 MP=23.26 R2=23.63 MP=24.39 R3=25.14 MP=25.90 R4=26.65
MP=21.75 S1=21.38 MP=21.00 S2=20.61 MP=19.86 S3=19.10 MP=18.35 S4=17.59
O=21.85 H=22.87 L=21.36 C=22.14

UUP PP=23.45
MP=23.48 R1=23.50 MP=23.51 R2=23.52 MP=23.56 R3=23.59 MP=23.63 R4=23.66
MP=23.44 S1=23.43 MP=23.41 S2=23.38 MP=23.35 S3=23.31 MP=23.28 S4=23.24
O=23.42 H=23.48 L=23.41 C=23.47

FROM: www.econoday.com

Economic Events & Analysis - 8/10/2010 Tuesday


7:30 AM ET NFIB Small Business Optimism Index
7:45 AM ET ICSC-Goldman Store Sales


8:30 AM ET Productivity and Costs

Released on 8/10/2010 8:30:00 AM For Q2:10
Prior Consensus Consensus Range
Nonfarm productivity - Q/Q change - SAAR 2.8 % 0.0 % -0.8 % to 2.5 %
Unit labor costs - Q/Q change - SAAR -1.3 % 1.5 % -1.0 % to 2.0 %

Market Consensus Before Announcement
Nonfarm business productivity for the first quarter came in at a moderately healthy 2.8 percent annualized gain. Meanwhile, unit labor costs declined 1.3 percent annualized. The second quarter numbers are not likely to be as favorable given the slowing in GDP growth for the same period. The output component of productivity and unit labor costs is based on many of the same sources as GDP. Real GDP growth slowed to 2.4 percent from an annualized 3.7 percent in the first quarter.


8:55 AM ET Redbook
10:00 AM ET Wholesale Trade
11:30 AM ET 4-Week Bill Auction
1:00 PM ET 3-Yr Note Auction


2:15 PM ET FOMC Meeting Announcement

Released on 8/10/2010 2:15:00 PM
Prior Consensus
Federal Funds Rate - Target Level 0 to 0.25 % 0 to 0.25 %

Market Consensus Before Announcement
The FOMC announcement for the August 10 FOMC policy meeting is expected to leave the fed funds target unchanged at a range of zero to 0.25 percent. Traders will be picking apart the statement for any wording hinting of additional quantitative easing and for changes in the Fed's view of the economy.


NOTE:
The previous days OHLC data for todays PPDT was gathered from finance.yahoo.com for each individual stock by a series of webquerys built into a spreadsheet.
The formulas used by the www.mypivots.com website to create the Pivot Points were found in the sites help files.
The formulas were built into the spreadsheet which acts on the previous days OHLC data gathered from Yahoo.
The Pivot Points were created using the formulas from www.mypivots.com but NOT by using the site.
Please let me know if you find any errors in the data.
Use of this data is at your own risk.

[ask2lern]

Thanks for the info ……….Here are the pivots……….…hope you all have a good day …………………GLTA


GOLD

R4 1237.60
midpoint 1231.90
R3 1226.20
midpoint 1220.50
R2 1214.80
Midpoint 1211.65
R1 1208.50
midpoint 1205.95

PP 1203.40

midpoint 1200.25
S1 1197.10
midpoint 1194.55
S2 1192.00
midpoint 1186.30
S3 1180.60
midpoint 1174.90
S4 1169.20

SILVER

R4 19.44
midpoint 19.27
R3 19.09
midpoint 18.92
R2 18.74
midpoint 18.65
R1 18.55
midpoint 18.47

PP 18.39

midpoint 18.30
S1 18.20
midpoint 18.12
S2 18.04
midpoint 17.87
S3 17.69
midpoint 17.52
S4 17.34

IMW

R3 67.62
R2 66.86
R1 65.36

PP 65.60

S1 65.10
S2 64.34
S3 63.84



TNA

R4 50.19
midpoint 49.24
R3 48.29
midpoint 47.34
R2 46.39
midpoint 46.00
R1 45.60
midpoint 45.05

PP 44.29

midpoint 44.10
S1 43.70
midpoint 43.15
S2 42.59
midpoint 41.64
S3 40.69
midpoint 39.74
S4 38.79

TZA

R4 34.77
Midpoint 34.08
R3 33.39
midpoint 32.70
R2 32.01
midpoint 31.61
R1 31.20
midpoint 30.92

PP 30.63

midpoint 30.23
S1 29.82
midpoint 29.54
S2 29.25
midpoint 28.56
S3 27.87
midpoint 27.18
S4 26.49

SDS

R3 31.72
R2 31.53
R1 31.24

PP 31.05

S1 30.76
S2 30.57
S3 30.67

………………………..GLTA

[ask2lern]

From http://www.optionmonster.com.....................GLTA

Nasdaq 100 edges above resistance
August 10, 2010 Tue 6:26 AM CT


There was only one major change for levels as a result of the price action yesterday. The Nasdaq 100 managed to edge above its resistance by a handful of points, so today it gets new upside levels and updated support.

The S&P 500's support will be updated as well, but the Russell 2000 levels remains the same.

The big event today, of course, is the FOMC announcement at 2:15 p.m. ET. How traders react to that report could dramatically alter the course of the tape and its velocity. Until that news is out of the way, trading may remain thin and relatively subdued barring other new events.

Nasdaq 100 (NDX)

First support is at 1890.87, the 10-day moving average. First resistance is now at 1918.78.

For the Nasdaq 100 Index Tracking Stock (QQQQ) first support is at $46.47. First resistance is at $47.27.

S&P 500 (SPX)

First support is now at 1117.19, the 10-day moving average. First resistance is at 1131.23.

For the Standard & Poor's Depository Receipts (SPY) first support is at $111.91. First resistance is at $113.20.

Russell 2000 (RUT)

First support is now at 649.72. First resistance is now at 677.15, the June high.

For the iShares Trust Russell 2000 Index Fund (IWM) first support is at $65.24. First resistance is at $67.99.

By: Mike Yamamoto

[ask2lern]

From http://www.optionmonster.com...........................GL

Fed will likely dominate busy calendar
August 10, 2010 Tue 6:11 AM CT


There are five reports on today's economic calendar, but all are likely to be overshadowed by the Federal Open Market Committee's meeting announcement at 2:15 p.m. ET. Numbers would need to come in well away from consensus to create a surprise strong enough to push traders into significant action beforehand.

The ICSC-Goldman Store Sales report will be released at 7:45 a.m. ET. There are two components to the report, the week-over-week and the year-over-year changes. Most traders focus on the year-over-year reading, which makes for clearer comparisons.

The last week-over-week change was -0.1 percent. The previous year-over-year data came in at 3.9 percent. Stronger-than-expected positive numbers would be seen as bullish, while negative numbers would be bearish.

Productivity and Costs will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET. Consensus calls for productivity to come in flat, while costs are expected to rise by 1.5 percent. Technically speaking, this would be an inflationary scenario. A drop in productivity and a further rise in costs would be the most inflationary scenario. The ranges for both components are wide.

Expectations for productivity range from a bearish -0.8 percent to a bullish 2.5 percent. Costs also have a wide range, from a bullish -1 percent to a bearish 2 percent.

Redbook Store Sales will be reported at 8:55 a.m. ET. There are two parts to the report, the month-over-month and the year-over-year comparisons. As with the ICSC release, most traders focus on the year-over-year numbers.

The last month-over-month change came in at -0.6 percent. The previous report's year-over-year data registered 3 percent. Negative numbers in either series would be bearish, while positive results in the year-over-year number are particularly bullish.

The SPDR S&P Retail (XRT) and Retail HOLDRS (RTH) exchange-traded funds, along with their underlying assets, may be active before and after the ICSC-Goldman and Redbook results.

Wholesale Trade will be released at 10 a.m. ET after markets are open. Consensus expectations call for a bullish scenario, with inventories gaining by 0.4 percent and sales rising by a larger 0.5 percent. The most bullish outcome would be for inventories to rise at a significantly lower level than sales do. The most bearish scenario would be for inventories to grow while sales fall.

The ranges of possible values for each component are wide. Inventories at the extreme end are seen either coming in flat or rising by as much as 1 percent. Expectations for sales range from a bearish -0.9 percent to a bullish 1.1 percent.

The big event of the day, and possibly of the last several weeks, will be the Fed's announcement. No one is expecting a change in rates, but the focus will be on the language of the release and any details of possible "quantitative easing" or further monetary stimulus measures.

As discussed yesterday, expectations have grown large for the Fed to do something to stimulate spending and hiring. Traders and investors both have a long list of things they would like to see done. An announcement of a large Treasury purchase, for example, could have profound effects in currency and bond markets.

The reactions around the announcement are likely to be quite volatile as the release is parsed and interpreted. A stand-pat or gradualist approach is not likely to be well received. A strong quantitative easing program, however, would be seen as very bullish.

(Chart courtesy of tradeMONSTER)

By: Mike Yamamoto

[ask2lern]

Yesterdays Volitily Sonar report from www.optionmonster.com ...................



...........................GLTA

[abdogman]

Good Morning Gang....Bros,Kryptos, Ask thx for all the info and nmbrs and Good Luck to All of Us today!!!!!!!

Back for the open

[Dualism]

Wal-Mart Stores has raised average prices at its stores by about 6 percent in a month, according to a recent study in Virginia.

A check by J.P. Morgan Securities said average prices at the Wal-Mart [WMT 52.06 --- UNCH ] Supercenter in Virginia were upped by 5.8 percent, the most significant sequential increase since it started the study in January 2009.

www.cnbc.com/id/38637167

Deflation?

[Dualism]

Unit labor costs, a gauge of potential inflation pressures closely watched by the Federal Reserve, edged up at a 0.2 percent annual rate after shrinking at a revised 3.7 percent rate in the first three months this year.

www.cnbc.com/id/38638080

How long before we start hearing 'stagflation'?

[steel]

U.S. non-farm productivity declined for the first time in 1-1/2 years during the second quarter this year and labor costs barely edged up, according to a report that underlined a slowing pace of recovery.

[steel]

Carl Futia

Real Time e-mini S&P Trading, plus contrarian commentary on all the markets, all the time
Tuesday, August 10, 2010
Guesstimates on August 10, 2010

September S&P E-mini Futures: I think the market's action yesterday and early this morning is telling us that a 50 point drop is in the works. A close today below the 1111 level would confirm this prognosis. Today's range estimate is 1102-1122. Even so, I still think that a new upward leg in the bull market started from the 1003 low made July 5.

[Dualism]

Equity prices may remain under pressure today if dollar holds up like this.



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[deadmoney95]

Aug 10, 2010 8:07:39 GMT -5 steel said:

Carl Futia

I think the market's action yesterday and early this morning is telling us that a 50 point drop is in the works. A close today below the 1111 level would confirm this prognosis.

I can't figure out if this is to Carl's credit, as being nimble and quick to react, or if it means we can rightly ask, "WTF?" I don't recall him recently mentioning even the possibility of such a significant step back in the last several sessions. Feh.

Thanks, everyone, for the morning data and analysis.

[ask2lern]

Out of SPY PUTS +32% .......................GLTA

[abdogman]

xlf on 1m is just below R at S1 now at 14.74

[abdogman]

1 mil share grn candle in the 6th min on th 1m for xlf did not move it above R

[steel]

SPY holding just above S3

Just broke below

[abdogman]

BB's on 1m xlf fas faz just starting to turn in
xlf 14.70 on 1m

[abdogman]

BB's tight on 1m for xlf fas faz on 1m
xlf 14.69 on 1m

[ask2lern]

Aug 10, 2010 8:33:49 GMT -5 ask2lern said:

Out of SPY PUTS +32% .......................GLTA

Once again Left a LOT of meat on the bone but my goal was 30% and I am really trying to stay disciplined on my targets .............So as a result of my fear of seeing the "dips" get bought I sold early and just for kicks picked up some SPY 112 Calls only 10 contracts......but what the heck .................GLTA

[crumbdon]

Smells vaugely of an attempt to scare retail out & collect cheap shares before the rise into this afternoon's fed release. Then more whipsaw to scare out the stragglers. Think I'll go long & hold on here.

[steel]

DAX and CAC is still green!

[abdogman]

BB's on xlf fas faz starting to spread now
xlf fas on lower channel
xlf 14.68 on 1m
all above on 1m

[abdogman]

eur/usd at lod
aud/jpy at lod

both on 1m

[brosin]

Nice play Ask!


I don't like this one bit! If yesterday turns out to have been the high, I am not a fan of now 2 lower highs and higher lows.

We'd need quite a push today.

[Dualism]

Despite all the anticipation over today's Federal Reserve meeting, there's little else the central bank can do now to help the economy recover, Pimco's co-CEO Mohamed El-Erian told CNBC.


CNBC.com
Mohamed El-Erian

Speaking just hours before a much-anticipated meeting of the Fed's Open Market Committee, El-Erian said the central bank can only do so much to foster growth and avoid deflation. The Fed has spent the past three years on a route of aggressive rate cuts and purchases of trillions in various securities but is running out of measures it can take.

El-Erian helps run the world's biggest bond fund with more than $1 trillion in assets under management.

"Fed policy is not enough. You need to do more than that to get off that road," he said.

Asked what needs to be done, he said, "First, selling a vision, a long-term vision as to what the policy response is to restore growth and employment. And second, to fill it out with proper structural policies."

The Tuesday Fed meeting is likely to end with the central bank assuring markets it will use "all viable instruments" to prop up the economy, El-Erian said.

However, it is less certain "the extent to which the Fed will push banks to lend and will push investors to take more risks."

He also expects the Fed to use the "unusually uncertain outlook" for the economy that Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke recently coined to describe the times ahead. El-Erian cited three reasons for the uncertainty.

"First, it's very difficult to get consensus on the FOMC. Second, there's a realization that policy effectiveness is going down. You get less outcomes for the same unit of reaction. And third, it's the wrong thing to focus on," he said.

"The country is facing structural issues and it needs structural solutions," he added. "Just focusing on the Fed is like sending in a wide receiver to play quarterback. Yes, the wide receiver is a good athlete. But he's not a quarterback and we need to focus on structural issues."

[abdogman]

BB's very tight on 1m vix now
BB's narrowing on 1m xlf fas faz
xlf 14.68 on 1m

[brosin]

He makes all good points, but I think he may be overlooking the most important part of the FOMC - because of how influential the FOMC is, what they are seeing and relaying to us has a dramatic effect on market action.

Even if other places like PIMCO can come up with projections that are much more accurate in the end, what the FOMC does and says has a lot more influence overall.

The economic system is based largely on faith in that very system. This is why I believe they should have raised rates in April with it right there in front of them. If you convince the markets things are getting better, they will - especially if the stock market is more of a cause than an effect.

[Dualism]

Aug 10, 2010 9:52:07 GMT -5 brosin said:

He makes all good points, but I think he may be overlooking the most important part of the FOMC - because of how influential the FOMC is, what they are seeing and relaying to us has a dramatic effect on market action.

Even if other places like PIMCO can come up with projections that are much more accurate in the end, what the FOMC does and says has a lot more influence overall.

The economic system is based largely on faith in that very system. This is why I believe they should have raised rates in April with it right there in front of them. If you convince the markets things are getting better, they will - especially if the stock market is more of a cause than an effect.

Excellent post. Laudable.

[brosin]

And - why would PIMCO want to relay a sense of cautiousness and for the FOMC to relay that as well? They are only one of the biggest bondholders in the world.