Post by brosin on Oct 5, 2010 8:18:27 GMT -5
Courtesy of Brian Shannon at www.alphatrends.net
Caldaro: Overnight the Asian markets were mostly higher. Europe opened higher but closed -0.95%. US index futures were lower overnight but moved up nearing the open of trading. At the open the SPX traded at 1145 for several minutes. It had closed at SPX 1146 on friday. After a push to SPX 1148 in the opening half hour the market started to drift lower. At 10:00 Factory orders were reported lower: -0.5% v +0.1%, and Pending home sales were reported positive: +4.3% v +5.2%. Around 10:30 the pullback started to accelerate to the downside. Just past noon the SPX hit 1132, matching last week's low. That was the low for the day. For the rest of the afternoon the market inched its way higher to close at SPX 1137.
For the day the SPX/DOW were -0.75%, and the NDX/NAZ were -1.10%. Bonds gained 12 ticks, Crude added 5 cents, Gold was off $2.00, and the USD was higher. Support for the SPX slips back to 1136 and then 1107, with resistance at 1146 and then 1168. Short term momentum hit oversold at today's low. Tomorrow, ISM services at 10:00.
Overnight there was some selling in Europe, but their markets rebounded by time the US market opened. Nevertheless, the SPX weakened after about an hour and pulled back to last week's low at 1132. If our short term count is to continue on track this should have been the low for this pullback. This would create an irregular flat for Minute wave two. Should this level fail to hold and the SPX declines to the 1122 area. Then the Minute waves one and two scenario would be nulled, and we may be looking at an irregular Minor 2 or a Minor 1 completion at SPX 1157. The market has a few options here for the short term wave structure. Important support remains at the 1107 and 1090 pivots. The short term OEW charts have turned negative, and it will take a rally clearing the 1136 pivot to turned them positive again.
Cobra:
The bottom line, the short-term trend is down but I hold no short position overnight. Well, strictly according to my setup, I should have no overnight short position, but I figured that if SPY has yet another gap up unfilled tomorrow, that’d be its 19th unfilled gap, so maybe it’s safe for a tiny small short position overnight?
One trick for tomorrow, when CPC <= 0.81, 44 out of 68 times (65%) a green day tomorrow. Well, yes, I’ve noticed it has been failed 5 times in a row…
SHORT-TERM: DIRECTION NOT CLEAR, COULD BE A BEAR FLAG IN THE FORMING THOUGH
The drop today may mean nothing as the price is still within the consolidation area I’ve been blah blah those days, so the short-term direction still is not clear. I won’t be surprised if the market is up huge tomorrow because during a trend transition period a reversal of reversal of reversal (add another hundred of reversal of reversal here if you like) is very common. So before the market could keep going on one direction at least for a few days, all I can say are that market is in a topping process and right now bear is attacking because a Bear Flag could be in the forming which means the price more likely will continue on the downside.
Caldaro: Overnight the Asian markets were mostly higher. Europe opened higher but closed -0.95%. US index futures were lower overnight but moved up nearing the open of trading. At the open the SPX traded at 1145 for several minutes. It had closed at SPX 1146 on friday. After a push to SPX 1148 in the opening half hour the market started to drift lower. At 10:00 Factory orders were reported lower: -0.5% v +0.1%, and Pending home sales were reported positive: +4.3% v +5.2%. Around 10:30 the pullback started to accelerate to the downside. Just past noon the SPX hit 1132, matching last week's low. That was the low for the day. For the rest of the afternoon the market inched its way higher to close at SPX 1137.
For the day the SPX/DOW were -0.75%, and the NDX/NAZ were -1.10%. Bonds gained 12 ticks, Crude added 5 cents, Gold was off $2.00, and the USD was higher. Support for the SPX slips back to 1136 and then 1107, with resistance at 1146 and then 1168. Short term momentum hit oversold at today's low. Tomorrow, ISM services at 10:00.
Overnight there was some selling in Europe, but their markets rebounded by time the US market opened. Nevertheless, the SPX weakened after about an hour and pulled back to last week's low at 1132. If our short term count is to continue on track this should have been the low for this pullback. This would create an irregular flat for Minute wave two. Should this level fail to hold and the SPX declines to the 1122 area. Then the Minute waves one and two scenario would be nulled, and we may be looking at an irregular Minor 2 or a Minor 1 completion at SPX 1157. The market has a few options here for the short term wave structure. Important support remains at the 1107 and 1090 pivots. The short term OEW charts have turned negative, and it will take a rally clearing the 1136 pivot to turned them positive again.
Cobra:
The bottom line, the short-term trend is down but I hold no short position overnight. Well, strictly according to my setup, I should have no overnight short position, but I figured that if SPY has yet another gap up unfilled tomorrow, that’d be its 19th unfilled gap, so maybe it’s safe for a tiny small short position overnight?
One trick for tomorrow, when CPC <= 0.81, 44 out of 68 times (65%) a green day tomorrow. Well, yes, I’ve noticed it has been failed 5 times in a row…
SHORT-TERM: DIRECTION NOT CLEAR, COULD BE A BEAR FLAG IN THE FORMING THOUGH
The drop today may mean nothing as the price is still within the consolidation area I’ve been blah blah those days, so the short-term direction still is not clear. I won’t be surprised if the market is up huge tomorrow because during a trend transition period a reversal of reversal of reversal (add another hundred of reversal of reversal here if you like) is very common. So before the market could keep going on one direction at least for a few days, all I can say are that market is in a topping process and right now bear is attacking because a Bear Flag could be in the forming which means the price more likely will continue on the downside.