PPDT - PP-XLF = 14.81 - 9/21 Tuesday

[ask2lern]

Can someone please move to sticky area.................................

Here are the pivots……….…hope everyone has a great day …………………GLTA


GOLD

R4 1306.23
midpoint 1301.88
R3 1297.53
midpoint 1293.18
R2 1288.83
Midpoint 1286.50
R1 1284.17
midpoint 1282.15

PP 1280.13

midpoint 1277.80
S1 1275.47
midpoint 1273.45
S2 1271.43
midpoint 1267.08
S3 1262.73
midpoint 1258.38
S4 1254.03

SILVER

R4 21.64
midpoint 21.50
R3 21.36
midpoint 21.22
R2 21.08
midpoint 21.00
R1 20.92
midpoint 20.86

PP 20.80

midpoint 20.72
S1 20.64
midpoint 20.58
S2 20.52
midpoint 20.38
S3 20.24
midpoint 20.10
S4 19.96

IMW

R3 70.86
R2 68.63
R1 67.82

PP 66.40

S1 65.59
S2 64.17
S3 61.94



TNA

R4 57.86
midpoint 55.67
R3 53.49
midpoint 51.30
R2 49.12
midpoint 48.34
R1 47.55
midpoint 46.15

PP 44.75

midpoint 43.97
S1 43.18
midpoint 41.78
S2 40.38
midpoint 38.19
S3 36.01
midpoint 33.82
S4 31.64

TZA

R4 37.09
Midpoint 35.57
R3 34.05
midpoint 32.53
R2 31.01
midpoint 30.03
R1 29.05
midpoint 28.51

PP 27.97

midpoint 26.99
S1 26.01
midpoint 25.47
S2 24.93
midpoint 23.41
S3 21.89
midpoint 20.37
S4 18.85

SDS

R3 31.85
R2 30.85
R1 30.23

PP 29.85

S1 29.23
S2 28.85
S3 27.85

………………………..GLTA

[ask2lern]

From www.optionmonster.com .............................GL

Indexes turn bullish before earnings
September 21, 2010 Tue 12:14 AM CT


In sequence, each of the indexes has made moves to break out of the trading range that has persisted since May. The Nasdaq 100 was the first to clear that hurdle last week, followed yesterday by the S&P 500.

The one index still trailing is the Russell 2000. It finished just shy of the top of its range, which is at the pivot high of June at 677.15. Levels have changed for all the indexes today as a result of the larger-than-usual range day and breakouts.

The big test now is whether each index can hold above that range and build on it.

It is interesting to see traders push the indexes through the top of the range as we head into the relative unknown of earnings season. The last time that happened was from March into April of this year.

As we can recall, the indexes reversed after earnings season news peaked late in April. And that was with very positive earnings for the most part that beat consensus expectations handily, on very easy comparisons to the previous year.

Nasdaq 100 (NDX)

First support is at 1964.10. First resistance is at 2003.59.

For the Nasdaq 100 Index Tracking Stock (QQQQ) first support is at $48.32. First resistance is at $49.32.

S&P 500 (SPX)

First support is at 1131.23. First resistance is at 1148.66.

For the Standard & Poor's Depository Receipts (SPY) first support is at $113.20. First resistance is at $115.22.

Russell 2000 (RUT)

First support is at 661.16. First resistance is at 672.16, and thereafter at the June pivot high at 677.15.

For the iShares Trust Russell 2000 Index Fund (IWM) first support is at $66.21. First resistance is at $67.27, and thereafter at $67.99.

[ask2lern]

From www.optionmonster.com ..................................GLTA

Fed, retail, housing reports on slate
September 21, 2010 Tue 12:02 AM CT


Retail will be a focus today, as it is every Tuesday with the release of the ICSC-Goldman Store Sales and Redbook Store Sales data. Housing Starts will also be reported.

The big event of the day is likely to be the FOMC Meeting Announcement at 2:15 p.m. ET, in which some traders expect to hear additional news about quantitative easing. Treasuries could react negatively to any indication that no easing measures will be taken. That ultimately could be quite bullish for stocks as capital might turn to stocks as traders exit bonds.

The ICSC-Goldman Store Sales report will be released at 7:45 a.m. ET. There are two components to the report, the week-over-week and the year-over-year changes. Most traders focus on the year-over-year reading, which makes for clearer comparisons.

The last week-over-week change came in at a gain of 0.8 percent. The year-over-year data in the previous report showed a gain of 2.6 percent. Stronger-than-expected positive numbers would be seen as bullish, while negative numbers would be bearish.

Housing Starts will be posted at 8:30 a.m. ET. Consensus calls for starts to rise moderately to 550,000 units, up from the previous 546,000. The range of expected outcomes is from a bearish drop to 510,000 units, to a very bullish rise to 600,000 units.

Redbook Store Sales will be reported at 8:55 a.m. ET. There are two parts to the report, the month-over-month and the year-over-year comparisons. As with the ICSC release, most traders focus on the year-over-year numbers.

Most traders focus on the year-over-year portion of the report for that reason. The last month-over-month change showed a loss of -0.1 percent. The previous report's year-over-year data showed a gain of 2.9 percent. Negative numbers in either series would be bearish.

By: Bryan McCormick

[abdogman]

Ask Thx for nmbrs and info !! Exalt!

[abdogman]

Good Morning Gang!!

FOMC day....back for the open ...GLTA

[ccash04]

Carl F:

December S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate is 1130-45. The ES has broken out of a 1002-1127 trading range formed over the past four months. This is very bullish action. It means that the ES will move above 1216 over the coming months. In the meantime support stands in the 1125-30 range. 1175 is the next upside target.

[ccash04]

Cobra:

SHORT-TERM: MINI PRICE TARGET SPX 1158, TIME TARGET 09/21

No argue, the market chose to breakout on the upside, therefore if we’re still on earth then since a forward accelerating car must slow down before it can be reversed so we should see more up days ahead, until a small bar consolidation area (means slow down) is formed before a top of some kind could be seriously considered. The chart below shows the mini price and time target in the most bearish view. I don’t mean that the market will follow this bearish view, I mean if the market sill has some upside room even in the most bearish view, then bulls should be pretty safe before the price and time target are met. As the 09/21 in the chart fits well with the 09/21 to 09/23 time window I mentioned in 09/17 Market Recap, so if the trend really is about to be changed, then most likely it should be in 09/21 to 09/23 time window instead of 10/05. Again, this is the most bearish view, assuming 09/21 to 09/23 is THE TOP. If you believe that the intermediate-term should be 2 to 3 leg up, then 09/21 to 09/23 time window is nothing, although market may still pullback around this time window but that could be an overbought pullback happens to be within this time window.

The last but not the least, still suggest not getting too bullish in the short-term, as although the market up huge today but all the negative divergences in chart 1.0.0 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 60 min) are not fixed. The chart still looks bearish to me.

[ccash04]

NYTimes:

To make a lot of money in the stock market this year, all you had to do was invest on just the first two days of every month.

And get the hell out of the market every other day.

Here are the numbers.

If you invested on the first two days of each month from January through September, you would have had a 10.40 percent return on your investment in Standard & Poor's 500 stocks. If you invested on just the first day of each month, your return wouldn't have been too shabby either: 7.78 percent.

To put it into perspective, if you had placed money in the S&P at the beginning of the year and held firm, you would be up only about 2.48 percent at this point.

And you are only doing that well because stocks rallied nicely over the past two weeks. Without the September rally, you would be down 2.5 percent.

A gain of 10.40 percent versus 1 percent. For doing less work!

[maxi]

Barchart.com U.S. Morning Call for Tuesday, September 21, 2010
Overnight Developments
European stocks are slightly higher with the European DJ Stoxx 50 up 0.13% and Dec S&Ps up 0.40 points due to reduced concerns about the European debt crisis. Ireland today sold 1.5 billion worth of 8-year bonds at 6.023% and 500 million worth of 4-year bonds at 4.767%. Spain today sold 7 billion euros worth of 12-month bills at 1.908%, which was the maximum allotment for the auction. Ireland's auctions were five times oversubscribed, showing strong demand and general confidence in Ireland's ability to repay the bonds. The favorable auction results caused the spread of Irish 10-year bonds over German bonds to fall by 21 bp to 381 bp. Sovereign credit default swap prices today fell by 24 bp to 421 bp for Ireland, by 2 bp to 234 bp for Spain, by 11 bp to 833 for Greece, and by 1 bp to 193 bp for Italy.
The Asian markets today closed narrowly mixed: Japan -0.25%, Hong Kong +0.11%, China +0.27%, Taiwan +0.12%, Australia -0.30%, Singapore +0.47%, Bombay +0.48%. President Obama in his town hall meeting that aired last night on CNBC said that China's leaders have not done "everything they said would be done" to allow the yuan to appreciate. The recent pressure by Washington on China to allow the yuan to rise seems to be having some impact. The yuan today rose slightly for the ninth day and hit a new 7-year high against the dollar. The 12-month forward for the yuan appreciated sharply by 0.5%, the largest gain in 3 months. The stronger yuan is negative for Chinese exporters but is positive for U.S. exporters. Japanese stocks were hurt by the diplomatic row with China over the Chinese fishing boat captain that is being held by Japanese authorities for being in disputed waters and colliding with two Japanese coast guard ships.
Overnight U.S. Stock News
Dec S&Ps this morning are trading slightly higher by 0.40 points (+0.04%) as the market awaits the outcome of today's FOMC meeting . The stock market yesterday rallied the entire day and finished sharply higher (Dow +1.37%, S&P 500 +1.52%, Nasdaq Composite +1.74%). The S&P 500 and the Dow rallied to 4-month highs while the Nasdaq climbed to a 4-1/4 month high. Bullish factors included (1) carry-over strength from a rally in European stock markets after Moody's Investors Service and Fitch Ratings affirmed their top-tier credit ratings on the UK and Germany, respectively, along with reduced European sovereign-debt concerns after Irish Finance Minister Lenihan said that his country won't require a EU bailout and Irish Central Bank Governor Honohan said that costs related to the country's banking system remain "manageable," (2) gains in homebuilder stocks led by Lennar after the fourth-largest US homebuilder reported Q3 earnings that topped estim ates as margins widened, (3) increased M&A activity after IBM announced a $1.7 billion takeover of Netazza Corp., and (4) data from research form Birinyi Associates that said US companies have announced $258 billion in stock buybacks so far this year, higher than the $52 billion in the first three quarters of 2009, and the largest increase for any Jan-to-Sep period since at least 2000 when Birinyi first began tracking the data.
Bearish factors included (1) concerns the European economy may be slowing after the monthly report from the Bundesbank said that growth in Germany, Europe's largest economy, slowed "markedly" in Q3 as the global recovery weakened, (2) the unexpected stagnation in the Sep NAHB housing market index which remained unchanged at a 1-1/2 year low of 13 versus expectations of +1 to 14, (3) weakness in producers of pulp and paper after Deutsche Bank AG said containerboard prices didn't increase as previously expected in August, and (4) the action by Deutsche Bank AG to cut their year-end estimate for the S&P 500 Index to 1,275 from an earlier estimate of 1,375, citing a slowing economy.
Today's Market Focus
December 10-year T-notes this morning are trading higher by 7.5 ticks going into today's FOMC meeting. Dec 10-year T-note prices yesterday traded on either side of unchanged into mid-morning when they rallied the remainder of the day and settled up +8.5 ticks at 124-130. Bullish factors included (1) the Sep NAHB housing market index which remained at a 1-1/2 year low (unchanged at 13 versus expectations of +1 to 14), (2) the Fed's purchase of $5.19 billion of Treasuries maturing between Sep 2016 to Aug 2019 as it keeps its balance sheet stable and prevents money from being drained from the financial system in an attempt to keep long-term interest rates low, and (3) the prediction from PIMCO that the Fed at Tuesday's FOMC meeting will "get the markets ready for expanding the balance sheet at a later meeting." Bearish factors included (1) reduced safe-haven demand for Treasuries after an easing of European sovereign-debt concerns helped propel the S&P 500 Index to a 4-month high, and (2) the prediction from CMC Markets that the FOMC in unlikely to announce new bond purchases on Tuesday because the Fed will not "want to trigger a fresh decline in the dollar/yen."
The dollar index this morning is down 0.25 cents with the dollar/yen down 0.24 yen and the euro/dollar up 0.71 cents. The euro received a boost today from reduced European debt crisis concerns. The dollar index yesterday closed slightly lower. Bearish factors included (1) speculation the FOMC on Tuesday may announce additional quantitative easing measures to keep borrowing costs low, and (2) strength in the euro after Moody's Investors Service and Fitch Ratings affirmed their top-tier credit ratings on the UK and Germany, respectively, along with reduced European sovereign-debt concerns after Irish Finance Minister Lenihan said that his country won't require a EU bailout and Irish Central Bank Governor Honohan said that costs related to the country's banking system remain "manageable." Bullish factors included (1) the monthly report from the Bundesbank which was euro-negative by saying that growth in Germany, Europe's largest economy, slowed "markedly&q uot; in Q3 as the global recovery weakened, and (2) the recommendation from Citigroup for investors to sell the euro against the dollar on its prediction that technical indicators point for the euro to decline to $1.2588 from $1.3079 today.
October crude oil prices this morning are down 61 cents a barrel on some long liquidation pressure after yesterday's rally. October gasoline this morning is up 0.15 cents per gallon. Oct crude oil prices yesterday closed higher for the first time in the last five sessions, up +$1.20 a barrel. Oct gasoline closed higher by +3.04 cents per gallon. Bullish factors included (1) a weaker dollar, and (2) the rally in the S&P 500 Stock Index to a 4-month high, which increases optimism in the economic outlook and energy demand. Bearish factors included (1) the action by Credit Suisse Group AG to cut their 2011 crude oil price forecast to $72.50 per barrel, down from an earlier estimate of $80 a barrel, citing the "high levels of spare capacity and a better performance from non-OPEC supply," (2) the action by Societe Generale SA to cut its 2011 crude oil price forecast to $85 a barrel from $92 as they predict that growth in global crude consumption in 2011 will decrease to 1.4 million barrels a day from 1.8 million a day this year, and (3) the prediction from Bache Commodities Ltd. that crude oil prices may begin to fall now that the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season has passed its peak.

Today's U.S. Earnings Reports
Earnings reports (confirmed releases, sorted by mkt cap) CCL-Carnival (BEST earnings consensus $1.47), ADBE-Adobe Systems (0.49), AZO-AutoZone (5.45), CAG-ConAgra Foods (0.39), DRI-Darden Restaurants (0.77), CTAS-Cintas (0.38), FDS-Factset Research Systems (0.80), PRGS-Progress Software (0.55), ALOG-Analogic (0.39).
Global Financial Calendar
Tuesday 9/21/10
United States
0745 ET ICSC (Int'l Council of Shopping Centers) weekly retailer sales.
0830 ET Aug housing starts expected +0.7% to 550,000, Jul +1.7% to 546,000. Aug building permits expected +0.2% to 560,000, Jul -4.1% to 559,000.
0855 ET Redbook weekly retailer sales.
0900 ET FOMC begins one day policy meeting.
1130 ET Weekly 4-week and monthly 1-year T-bill auctions.
1415 ET FOMC announces interest rate decision (expected no change to the 0.00% to 0.25% Fed Funds rate).
1700 ET ABC U.S. weekly consumer confidence, previous unchanged at -43.

[maxi]

Asian Banks Big Picture

The Mid-Autumn Review

India, China to Continue Robust GDP Growth into 2011

Our real GDP growth estimates for 2010 show stellar GDP growth for Singapore, mainly attributed to a rebound from a low base. However, on a sustained basis, China and India are expected to continue robust GDP growth well into 2011. Indonesia is also expected to maintain strong growth in the 6.1%-6.2% range.

Q10 Loan and Deposit Growth Trends

Loan growth at 2Q10 was moderate for Taiwan, Thailand, Singapore and Malaysia and strong for India, China, Indonesia and HK. Korea was the only market with low (~3%) loan growth YoY. Deposits growth was also strong (with the exceptions of HK, Thailand and Taiwan). However, loan growth surpassed deposit growth for all markets except Korea. Also, the loan / deposit ratio was <100% for all markets except Korea (116%).

Consumer Loans/GDP Lower Than Non-Consumer Loans / GDP

Consumer loans as a % of nominal GDP lag the business loans / nominal GDP ratio for most markets (except Malaysia). Consumer loans as a % of GDP are lowest for Indonesia (8.4%), India (9.5%) and China (16.5%). However, a recent steep rise in household debt across Asia also hints at asset/property bubble formations.

Policy Rate Trends Suggest Uptick

With central banks pressing the brakes, monetary tightening across the region is expected to push up interest rates. So far, India (+100bps), Korea (+25bps), Taiwan (+12.5bps), Thailand (+25bps) and Malaysia (+75bps) have increased rates since Dec 2009. For the remainder of 2010, Citi¡¦s macro team expects no hikes in China, Indonesia and Malaysia; 1 hike in TW (+12.5bps) and Korea (+25bps), 2 hikes in India (+50bps) and 3 hikes in Thailand (+75bps).

Credit Multiplier and Market Cap / GDP Studies

India, Korea, Thailand and Singapore banks are close to the low end of their respective credit multiplier range (credit multiplier = loan growth / nominal GDP growth). HK and Malaysia are at the top ends of their similar range. However, low recent credit multipliers for some markets may also be attributed to a stellar 1H10 GDP rebound from a low base and hence may understate the actual credit multiplier. Banking sector size in equity value terms relative to local economy (i.e. banking sector market cap / GDP %) is low for India, Indonesia and Korea compared to others, highlighting possible scope for improvement in banking sector market caps over time.

[ask2lern]

SPY went from 113.94 to 114.31 on 526K shares in 60 seconds................

[kryptos2009]

Here is the PP Daily Thread (PPDT) data.


XLF PP=14.81
MP=14.91 R1=15.01 MP=15.07 R2=15.13 MP=15.29 R3=15.45 MP=15.61 R4=15.77
MP=14.75 S1=14.69 MP=14.59 S2=14.49 MP=14.33 S3=14.17 MP=14.01 S4=13.85
O=14.63 H=14.93 L=14.61 C=14.89

FAS PP=23.02
MP=23.46 R1=23.89 MP=24.14 R2=24.39 MP=25.08 R3=25.76 MP=26.45 R4=27.13
MP=22.77 S1=22.52 MP=22.09 S2=21.65 MP=20.97 S3=20.28 MP=19.60 S4=18.91
O=22.3 H=23.53 L=22.16 C=23.38

FAZ PP=12.62
MP=12.78 R1=12.93 MP=13.19 R2=13.44 MP=13.85 R3=14.26 MP=14.67 R4=15.08
MP=12.37 S1=12.11 MP=11.96 S2=11.80 MP=11.39 S3=10.98 MP=10.57 S4=10.16
O=13.05 H=13.13 L=12.31 C=12.42

SPY PP=113.73
MP=114.34 R1=114.94 MP=115.31 R2=115.67 MP=116.64 R3=117.61 MP=118.58 R4=119.55
MP=113.37 S1=113.00 MP=112.40 S2=111.79 MP=110.82 S3=109.85 MP=108.88 S4=107.91
O=112.88 H=114.46 L=112.52 C=114.21

SPG PP=96.78
MP=97.36 R1=97.94 MP=98.29 R2=98.64 MP=99.57 R3=100.50 MP=101.43 R4=102.36
MP=96.43 S1=96.08 MP=95.50 S2=94.92 MP=93.99 S3=93.06 MP=92.13 S4=91.20
O=95.89 H=97.48 L=95.62 C=97.24

GS PP=151.40
MP=152.15 R1=152.90 MP=153.41 R2=153.91 MP=155.16 R3=156.42 MP=157.67 R4=158.93
MP=150.90 S1=150.39 MP=149.64 S2=148.89 MP=147.63 S3=146.38 MP=145.12 S4=143.87
O=150.98 H=152.4 L=149.89 C=151.9

JPM PP=40.84
MP=41.25 R1=41.66 MP=41.89 R2=42.12 MP=42.76 R3=43.40 MP=44.04 R4=44.68
MP=40.61 S1=40.38 MP=39.97 S2=39.56 MP=38.92 S3=38.28 MP=37.64 S4=37.00
O=40.24 H=41.31 L=40.03 C=41.19

MS PP=26.65
MP=26.89 R1=27.13 MP=27.27 R2=27.41 MP=27.79 R3=28.17 MP=28.55 R4=28.93
MP=26.51 S1=26.37 MP=26.13 S2=25.89 MP=25.51 S3=25.13 MP=24.75 S4=24.37
O=26.53 H=26.94 L=26.18 C=26.84

C PP=3.98
MP=4.00 R1=4.01 MP=4.03 R2=4.04 MP=4.07 R3=4.10 MP=4.13 R4=4.16
MP=3.97 S1=3.95 MP=3.94 S2=3.92 MP=3.89 S3=3.86 MP=3.83 S4=3.80
O=3.95 H=4 L=3.94 C=3.99

VIX PP=21.78
MP=22.04 R1=22.30 MP=22.71 R2=23.11 MP=23.77 R3=24.44 MP=25.10 R4=25.77
MP=21.38 S1=20.97 MP=20.71 S2=20.45 MP=19.78 S3=19.12 MP=18.45 S4=17.79
O=22.47 H=22.58 L=21.25 C=21.5

UUP PP=23.56
MP=23.58 R1=23.60 MP=23.62 R2=23.64 MP=23.68 R3=23.72 MP=23.76 R4=23.80
MP=23.54 S1=23.52 MP=23.50 S2=23.48 MP=23.44 S3=23.40 MP=23.36 S4=23.32
O=23.59 H=23.59 L=23.51 C=23.57

FROM: www.econoday.com

Economic Events & Analysis - 9/21/2010 Tuesday


7:45 AM ET ICSC-Goldman Store Sales

Released on 9/21/2010 7:45:00 AM For wk9/18, 2010
Prior Actual
Store Sales - W/W change 0.8 % -1.4 %
Store Sales - Y/Y 2.6 % 3.3 %

Highlights
September store sales are swinging back and forth according to ICSC-Goldman's tally which fell 1.4 percent in the September 18 week following a 0.8 percent rise in the prior week. The year-on-year rate is also swinging back and forth, up a very strong seven tenths in the week to plus 3.3 percent. The report offers no explanation for the year-on-year strength which is the strongest in five weeks. Despite the swings, ICSC-Goldman says September is on track for a plus 3.0 percent year-on-year result. Redbook is up at 8:55 ET.


8:30 AM ET Housing Starts

Released on 9/21/2010 8:30:00 AM For Aug, 2010
Prior Consensus Consensus Range Actual
Starts - Level - SAAR 0.546 M 0.550 M 0.520 M to 0.575 M 0.598 M
Permits - Level - SAAR 0.565 M 0.569 M

Highlights
Housing starts showed unexpected strength in August with even the single-family component increasing. Housing starts in jumped 10.5 percent after rising a modest 0.4 percent in July. The August annualized pace of 0.0.598 million units clearly topped analysts' expectations for 0.550 million units and is actually up 2.2 percent on a year-ago basis. The gain in August was led by a 32.2 percent surge in multifamily starts, following a 36.0 percent increase in July. The single-family component rebounded 4.3 percent after dipping 6.7 percent in July.

By region, the gain in starts was led by a 34.3 percent rebound in the West. Also gaining were the Midwest, up 23.3 percent, and the South, up 7.0 percent. The Northeast dropped 24.3 percent.

Permits improved in the latest month, rising 1.8 percent after declining 4.1 percent in July. Overall permits came in at an annualized rate of 0.569 million units and are down 6.7 percent on a year-ago basis.

Today's report is probably better news for construction workers than for real estate brokers. The single-family component is up but still at a low pace but hard hats will be glad to get work at the improving apartment market. The latest single-family starts are consistent with the National Association of Homebuilders housing market index which is still depressed. But at a minimum, it appears that housing has stabilized and this is good news for equities which showed modest gains in futures on the release. Meanwhile, rates nudged up.


8:55 AM ET Redbook

Released on 9/21/2010 8:55:00 AM For wk9/18, 2010
Prior Actual
Store Sales Y/Y change 2.9 % 2.2 %

Highlights
Chain store sales were soft in the September 18 week, at a plus 2.2 percent pace that in part reflects the wind down to what Redbook describes as a "very" promotional back-to-school season. Month-to-month, sales are down 0.4 percent vs. Redbook's forecast for a 0.2 percent decline. The outlook for the September retail sales report is still unfolding.


11:30 AM ET 4-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET 52-Week Bill Auction


2:15 PM ET FOMC Meeting Announcement

Released on 9/21/2010 2:15:00 PM
Prior Consensus
Federal Funds Rate - Target Level 0 to 0.25 % 0 to 0.25 %

Market Consensus Before Announcement
The FOMC announcement for the September 21 FOMC policy meeting is expected to leave the fed funds target rate unchanged at a range of zero to 0.25 percent. The big question is whether any additional quantitative easing measures will be announced. Also, analysts look for signs of dissent over the timing of changes in the Fed's balance sheet as well as the size of changes and even the planned composition of assets (mainly Treasuries versus non-Treasury assets).



Additional World wide Economic Calendar information can be found at the following website.
worldeconomiccalendar.com/

NOTE:
The previous days OHLC data for todays PPDT was gathered from finance.yahoo.com for each individual stock by a series of webquerys built into a spreadsheet.
The formulas used by the www.mypivots.com website to create the Pivot Points were found in the sites help files.
The formulas were built into the spreadsheet which acts on the previous days OHLC data gathered from Yahoo.
The Pivot Points were created using the formulas from www.mypivots.com but NOT by using the site.
Please let me know if you find any errors in the data.
Use of this data is at your own risk.

[abdogman]

xlf 14.91 on 1m

[abdogman]

macd has been and is neg on the 1m for xlf fas
xlf 14.89 on 1m

[abdogman]

BB's on 1m uup narrowed to tight

xlf 14.91 and macd just pos it and fas on 1m

[abdogman]

macd neg now on 1m xlf fas
BB's narrowing on 1m xlf fas faz
xlf 14.90 on 1m

[ask2lern]

Pretty slow...............my current SPY #'s R114.29 PP113.96 S113.78 for now..................GL

[abdogman]

macd neg now on 1m for xlf fas
xlf 14.89 on 1m

[abdogman]

xlf 14.9126 on 1m macd pos/ it and fas

[abdogman]

xlf 14.91 on 1m
macd appx 0/0 on 1m xlf fas faz

[brosin]

from Brian Shannon at www.alphatrends.net

[brosin]

www.bespokeinvest.com

Most Overbought Stocks in the S&P 500

At the open today, 313 of the 500 stocks in the S&P 500 were trading in overbought territory (more than 1 standard deviation above their 50-day moving averages). Below are the stocks in the index that are the most overbought. In the screen below, the right side of the dark red zone represents 3 standard deviations above the 50-day moving average, and many of these names are trading right at this level. Qwest Communications (Q) is the most overbought stock in the S&P 500 at the moment, trailed closely by Travelers (TRV), CenturyLink (CTL), Oracle (ORCL), Discovery Communication (DISCA), and Forest Labs (FRX). Apple (AAPL) is right up there as well. And big retail names like Kohl's (KSS), Wal-Mart (WMT), and Best Buy (BBY) are also on the most overbought list. All of these names have clearly had a nice run over the last couple of weeks, but at these levels it's tough to make an aggressive bet on the long side. It's probably worth waiting until they get a little closer to their normal trading ranges before putting on a long trade.

[brosin]

End of the Recession. You Heard it Here First.

While it took the NBER over a year to conclude that the recession was over, Bespoke Premium clients have been reading our comments for well over a year now that the recession ended in June 2009. We have done a number of reports on this topic, but below are two that were made in June 2009 and July 2009:

June 25, 2009: Friday's Michigan Confidence: Is the Recession Over?

July 30, 2009: Initial Jobless Claims Predicting End of Recession

[abdogman]

xlf 14.892 on 1m
BB's spreading on 1m xlf fas faz
macd has been neg on 1m for xlf fas fo over 10 min

[abdogman]

xlf 14.87on 1m

[ccash04]

From ZH (I know its ZH but still its a great article on the 2s10s and a lot of the spreads/popular):

Today the Fed may or may not announce a new outright dollar debasing venture, or may merely hint one is coming. And while the impact on stocks is pretty binary (post embargo, break stocks will either surge or slump) as very few are left trading equities, the real question is what will happen to rate and rate derivative products. Conveniently, Morgan Stanley's Igor Cashyn has compiled a historical analysis of how prior episodes of QE have impacted Treasury-based products. Igor looks at front and back-end rates, at curves, butterflies, swap spreads and agencies. Here are the results.

As Cashyn prefaces his report: "In the chance that something does get announced today, this report offers the guidance to what we can expect based on historical market reactions" and here are the products that readers can decide offer the best bang for the buck should QE2 come:

In front-end rates: The impact should be minimal, even as it has been quite bullish before.

In back-end rates: 10y USTs rallied 24bp, 51bp and 7bp on the day LSAPs were announced in 2008, 2009 and 2010. If LSAPs are resumed, we can retest the 2.50% resistance level – a fair outcome, in our view. If no new LSAP language is added, however, the market is likely to be disappointed, and may reduce the probability of the Fed acting in November as well.

In curves/flies: 2s10s flattened a consistent 26bp, 22bp and 25bp in the week after the ‘08, ‘09, and ‘10 LSAP announcements, respectively, while 10s30s tend to steepen initially. Belly tends to rally, led by 7s.

In swap spreads: 7y and 10y spreads widened 13bp and 8bp, respectively, the day UST QE was announced in 2009 (albeit they were quick to revert). Given how narrow spreads are now, however, putting on wideners is a good way to hedge the initial move, in our view.

In Agencies: Spread moves are unlikely to be large, although they may lag any move in Treasuries.

And here is how it looks in all its graphic splendor:


For the article and all the charts: www.zerohedge.com/article/charting-treasury-reactions-prior-qe-episodes

[abdogman]

macd pos last 6 mins on 1m for xlf fas
xlf 14.905 on 1m

[abdogman]

macd neg last 3 mins on 1m xlf fas
xlf 14.88 on 1m

[abdogman]

BB's spreading now on xlf fas faz
xlf 14.85 on 1m

[abdogman]

xlf 14.83 on 1m