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Post by abdogman on Mar 8, 2010 15:11:53 GMT -5
Elle what was Cash's system?
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Post by elle on Mar 8, 2010 15:19:20 GMT -5
TSO still bumping up against its 200, but I switched from short to long because it looks like it could go through, maybe even snap its downtrend line at 14, but if it pulls back, again, I think I'll add as once through that line, it could go 15 or possibly get back to Apr/May levels. But that's not for today, so I'm off again
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Post by ukarlewitz on Mar 8, 2010 15:22:23 GMT -5
Elle what was Cash's system? Trade 50 times and make 13% per day. Elle, the low vix implies that you'll have to take larger positions and trade more aggressively to make the near same returns as last year. It'll be a challenge. I'm also more patient and waiting for set ups and letting things ride. Most important is to avoid f*c$ ups like this Vxx!
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Post by abdogman on Mar 8, 2010 15:24:09 GMT -5
thx UK
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Post by ukarlewitz on Mar 8, 2010 15:24:21 GMT -5
TSO still bumping up against its 200, but I switched from short to long because it looks like it could go through, maybe even snap its downtrend line at 14, but if it pulls back, again, I think I'll add as once through that line, it could go 15 or possibly get back to Apr/May levels. But that's not for today, so I'm off again Where did TSO come from? It's new to me.
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Post by merrillstanley on Mar 8, 2010 15:28:26 GMT -5
elle i concur on a couple points, I have limited my d/t to larger moves spread out over 5 plays per day...scalp at 4-10% up and cut at 3% loss...
I know this looks bullish and if I was wrong, so be it, every day is a reset anyway for me...only holding VXX from Th/Fr...not yet at sell threshold, but very close
I just can't see a continued run here w/o tutes, but stragner things have happened
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Post by merrillstanley on Mar 8, 2010 15:31:14 GMT -5
The S&P 500 has traded within a five-point range for the entire session. The lack of action comes as participants allow this past week's gains to consolidate.
Last week's advance totaled 3.1%; it was the second weekly gain in three weeks. During that three week period, the stock market tacked on almost 6%.
Trading volume has suffered as participants sit on the sidelines. With just one hour left in this session, little more than a half billion shares have exchanged hands on the NYSE.
Trading volume, or the lack thereof, has also been influenced by the absence of any major headlines or catalysts, which would often pull in participants.DJ30 -6.50 NASDAQ +6.36 SP500 +0.32 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1437/1.59 bln/1242 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1809/561 mln/1206
While the broader market remains stuck in range bound trade with mixed results, homebuilders have put together a strong session. In fact, the SPDR Homebuilders exchange traded fund, XHB (XHB 16.76, +0.19), has hit a new 52-week high. Pulte Homes (PHM 11.45, +0.22), Toll Brothers (TOL 19.77, +0.24), and Meritage Homes (MTH 22.70, +0.20) are among the better performers in the group.
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Post by ukarlewitz on Mar 8, 2010 15:31:19 GMT -5
Spain: That will put a spear into the market. I don't know when that will hit the fan, but it will be huge when it does. One of these days, we will have a hell of a gap down to wake up to.
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Post by merrillstanley on Mar 8, 2010 15:32:17 GMT -5
NASDAQ 100 (NDX) leaders & laggards moving into today's final hour of trading (RIMM) : NDX 100 Best % Performers: RIMM +6.25%, CSCO +3.25%, YHOO +3.25%, WYNN +3.0%, BIDU +2.75%, BMC +2.25%, PCLN +2.0%, CTAS +1.75%, CTXS +1.50%, NTAP +1.25%, FWLT +1.25%
NDX 100 Worst % Performers: WCRX -4.0%, NIHD -2.0%, TEVA -2.0%, LOGI -1.75%, LINTA -1.75%, GILD -1.50%, NVDA -1.50%, ESRX -1.50%, SRCL -1.25%, CYSH -1.25%, VMED -1.25%
NASDAQ TRIN @ +0.70 NASDAQ A/D @ +210
Dow 30 (INDU) leaders & laggards moving into today's final hour of trading (CSCO) : INDU 30 Best % Performers: CSCO +3.25%, MCD +2.75%, VZ +1.50%, T +1.25%, DD +1.0%, CVX +0.75%
INDU 30 Worst % Performers: MMM -1.25%, AXP -1.0%, BA -1.0%, PG -0.75%, PFE -0.75%, KFT -0.50%
NYSE TRIN @ +1.05 NYSE A/D @ +545
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Post by merrillstanley on Mar 8, 2010 15:35:07 GMT -5
wow someone just dumped 1.5M vxx shares
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Post by ask2lern on Mar 8, 2010 15:36:08 GMT -5
Spain: That will put a spear into the market. I don't know when that will hit the fan, but it will be huge when it does. One of these days, we will have a hell of a gap down to wake up to. Wake me up from my drunken short stuper when this occurs please....LOL
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Post by ask2lern on Mar 8, 2010 15:44:52 GMT -5
Looks like this will be the lowest volume day in the last 12 months with the exception of the week between Xmas and New years.......................where is the conviction on this rally?..................seems to me people just sitting waiting for a reason to go one way or the other................GL
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Post by abdogman on Mar 8, 2010 15:49:15 GMT -5
Looks like this will be the lowest volume day in the last 12 months with the exception of the week between Xmas and New years.......................where is the conviction on this rally?..................seems to me people just sitting waiting for a reason to go one way or the other................GL Absolutely!
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Mikey
Broker/Dealer
Posts: 581
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Post by Mikey on Mar 8, 2010 15:50:32 GMT -5
Hey Merrill I have to disagree with the terminology in this last development in the VXX saga, the "dumping" of 1.5M shares (now 3M shares). I think it's extremely bullish that someone just bought/accumulated 3M shares.
When I see big volume there's one of three ways you could read it - people are dumping, people are accumulating, or both. Here's my non-scientific opinion on what's what:
On a long red candle, that's when I consider it to be "dumping," heading for the exits at whatever price a buyer will accept
On a long green candle, institutions are accumulating at whatever price they can get from sellers...think GS/SPG from 3:45-4pm.
High volume on a doji - healthy battle of bulls/bears
With that in mind, if a stock/ETF is trading at it's all-time low and I see 3M shares come out of nowhere, are the price goes up, I see that as one dude (or institution) deciding its a pretty good idea to get in, and buys up all the outstanding sell orders...
Good luck with the VXX my friend
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Post by abdogman on Mar 8, 2010 16:01:02 GMT -5
farewell until tomorrow my friends ...i hope it is more interesting Have a good Night
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Post by ukarlewitz on Mar 8, 2010 16:02:10 GMT -5
Hey Merrill I have to disagree with the terminology in this last development in the VXX saga, the "dumping" of 1.5M shares (now 3M shares). I think it's extremely bullish that someone just bought/accumulated 3M shares. When I see big volume there's one of three ways you could read it - people are dumping, people are accumulating, or both. Here's my non-scientific opinion on what's what: On a long red candle, that's when I consider it to be "dumping," heading for the exits at whatever price a buyer will accept On a long green candle, institutions are accumulating at whatever price they can get from sellers...think GS/SPG from 3:45-4pm. High volume on a doji - healthy battle of bulls/bears With that in mind, if a stock/ETF is trading at it's all-time low and I see 3M shares come out of nowhere, are the price goes up, I see that as one dude (or institution) deciding its a pretty good idea to get in, and buys up all the outstanding sell orders... Good luck with the VXX my friend I like high vol red at what looks like the bottom of a trading range. This to me signifies a possible turning point. (Add this to the turning pts I saw in Vix 4 times last week as well). time to look at some eod candles.
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Mikey
Broker/Dealer
Posts: 581
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Post by Mikey on Mar 8, 2010 16:14:36 GMT -5
Speaking of volume check out EDZ, highest all-time one-day volume today, I'm thinking it might be a bottom. I like the MACD turning positive also:
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Post by ukarlewitz on Mar 8, 2010 16:19:49 GMT -5
OK, BS meter is set for high; Bear that in mind as you read this. To me, USO, GLD and UUP seem to be confirming each other, i.e., DX to rise with GLD and USO to retreat.
Spy – perfect doji at gap window. Indecision. Everyone on the planet is expecting a gap fill to 115. Expect the unexpected! Small caps (IWM) – Doji. Still looks bullish given we confirmed a close above the b/o. Qs – We have a flat/double top forming at this level with today’s tight range. XLF – Very close to double top at 15.4. Quite critical given leadership here in the past week or so. USO – black bar close to important 40 R level (touched 40 at open, then sold down). GLD – Long red candle. Lowest close in a week. UUP – hollow red (close>open but below prior close). Often continues up the next day(s). VIX – Inside day. At two year low double bottom.
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Post by merrillstanley on Mar 8, 2010 16:21:15 GMT -5
i respect your point mikey, my guess is the MMs held/accum orders for the large buy over the last 30 mins of trading, VXX did nothing but rise from that buy/sell exchange...i was simply viewing the VXX accum/distrib hourly and noticed it the significant red distrib on the chart, didn;t have the bars up at that point, i was flipping thru the 1 minute hourlies and only saw red, in that respect i should have noted...macd/momo/price/stoch rose from that moment on
don;t mean to confuse anyone, just didn;t have the 15 min on, I was looking for runners on the last 30 min of trade,
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Post by jack on Mar 8, 2010 16:24:37 GMT -5
Thanks for the feedback D-money, that IS interesting about ITMS. His weekend webinar was really good - he's clearly bearish but tries to explore reasons why the market will continue to float up - I liked his Larry Summers sandbag story on the jobs number, how he prepped the market for a disappointing jobs #, giving the market a meatball of a pitch to knock one out of the park, slow pitch softball style - it was almost guaranteed the number would be "better than expected." Another great video to watch, since it's such a slow day: www.youtube.com/watch?v=SWmH-BFDXtsThis one from the "optionslinebacker" describes 4 stages of market moves that continuously repeat themselves: 1) Euphoria 2) Disgust 3) Disbelief 4) Acceptance then back to 1) Euphoria UK I also liked that disciplined investor link, good stuff Mike: Two things 1) I've been disgusted with Mr Market since last Nov, 2) I found your pirate's eyepatch outside the REI in Bailey's Crossroads, VA a couple hours ago. I kid you not - Arghhhhhhhhh!
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Post by ukarlewitz on Mar 8, 2010 16:27:27 GMT -5
Spy vol was 113m today. The 4 lowest vol days this year were Jan 11, today, Jan 14 and Jan 19. Those three days in Jan were the three days we touched the 115 high (cue dramatic music). You do have to kind of love things like this.
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Post by ukarlewitz on Mar 8, 2010 16:32:02 GMT -5
Russell 2k closed at 667 today. Spx low in March was 667.
(Number 9, number 9, number 9).
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Post by elle on Mar 8, 2010 16:36:27 GMT -5
TSO still bumping up against its 200, but I switched from short to long because it looks like it could go through, maybe even snap its downtrend line at 14, but if it pulls back, again, I think I'll add as once through that line, it could go 15 or possibly get back to Apr/May levels. But that's not for today, so I'm off again Where did TSO come from? It's new to me. I know naught about TSO except it was basing. Missed the buy, and trying to make up for it, went short to scalp and then buy. And it was going down AH Friday, then suddenly reversed. Found out it was mentioned on Fast Money. Just in it because it was oversold and I think there is good upside potential (crossed 200 AH Looking for replacements for PCX - stocks around $10 that move a lot in a day up or down.
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Post by elle on Mar 8, 2010 16:49:09 GMT -5
Tahnks, Uka, for the candle report. Not sure I care too much if higher price stocks sell off - usually that is when the low ticket ones that the po' folks (like me) own tend to go up as the money looks for oversold bargains.
Glad to have my BFF back.
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Post by Dualism on Mar 8, 2010 17:15:17 GMT -5
Even though the (A:D) breadth was positive and NYSE and NASDAQ closed higher, the McClellan oscillators closed lower; -6 and -7, respectively.
A substantive pull back is imminent in the next 2 sessions, in my view.
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Post by deadmoney95 on Mar 8, 2010 17:18:43 GMT -5
Thanks everyone. Mikey and Uka, glad to have you back.
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Post by ukarlewitz on Mar 8, 2010 18:16:30 GMT -5
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Post by ukarlewitz on Mar 8, 2010 20:27:20 GMT -5
There was a thread somewhere over the weekend that referred to valuations on the market being average or below. I'm posting follow up information here for anyone interested. This is a nifty analysis. My personal experience is that valuations make almost no difference to share prices near term, but are important longer term.
Quote: "Last week, we observed a subtle shift in yield pressures, which has historically been associated with fairly abrupt "air pockets" in which stocks have typically lost 10% or more within the span of about 6 weeks.
Consider the following conditions: 1) market valuations above their historical norm by any amount at all - for example, a dividend yield on the S&P 500 anything less than 3.7%, and; 2) The 10-year Treasury bond yield and the year-over-year CPI inflation rate higher than their levels of 6 months earlier (regardless of whether their absolute levels have been high or low). If you look at market history since 1940, this condition has been in effect nearly 20% of the time. Yet this set of factors alone has made an enormous difference in the returns achieved by the market. When the above conditions have been in effect at the same time, the S&P 500 has actually lost ground on a price basis, and has delivered an annualized return of just 0.28%. In contrast, when those conditions have not been in effect, the market has advanced at an average annualized rate of 14.94%. Of course, these averages mask a lot of volatility, but it is clear that even the most basic combination of low stock yields and rising yield pressures is hostile to total returns.
To the above conditions, if Treasury bill yields are also higher than 6 months earlier (again, regardless of the absolute level of yields), the annualized return drops to -0.83%. Add a discount rate higher than 6 months earlier, and the annualized return drops to -2.22%.
Now add overbought conditions (say, a 12-month advance in the S&P 500 of greater than 30%), and the annualized return turns sharply negative, to -39.17%. Overvalued, overbought, conditions with rising yield pressures are trouble. Given those conditions, excessive bullishness only worsens the situation. Now, this combination of conditions has never persisted for an entire year, so the actual loss sustained by the market is not so extreme, but suffice it to say that the typical loss has been in excess of 10%. Based on the current overbought status of the market, there are only three similar periods that we can identify in post-war data: August-October 1999 (which was followed by an abrupt air pocket of greater than 10%), September-October 1987 (no comment required), and September-December 1955 (which was followed by a 10% correction, a brief recovery, and a secondary decline to re-test the initial low)."
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Mikey
Broker/Dealer
Posts: 581
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Post by Mikey on Mar 9, 2010 5:00:03 GMT -5
Great article again, UK, exalts. Here is this week's update...bookmarking this guy: www.hussman.net/wmc/wmc100308.htmI know that you once posted a list of our daily "oracles" that you check like Cobra, Futia, etc - at some point when we have a sleepy market day like today, I'd love to see a full UK bookmark list, split by who you review on a daily basis, weekly basis, etc. Do you have a system, or just bounce around the blog-o-sphere and share the good links? I could do a similar thread on the Youtube analysts that I subscribe to - how often I review them, etc. Actually there may be a sticky out there which would work. Let me know, I'm very interested if you have a list or system.
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Post by kryptos2009 on Mar 9, 2010 7:43:03 GMT -5
Great article again, UK, exalts. Here is this week's update...bookmarking this guy: www.hussman.net/wmc/wmc100308.htmI know that you once posted a list of our daily "oracles" that you check like Cobra, Futia, etc - at some point when we have a sleepy market day like today, I'd love to see a full UK bookmark list, split by who you review on a daily basis, weekly basis, etc. Do you have a system, or just bounce around the blog-o-sphere and share the good links? I could do a similar thread on the Youtube analysts that I subscribe to - how often I review them, etc. Actually there may be a sticky out there which would work. Let me know, I'm very interested if you have a list or system. Mike & Uka, This type of info should be placed in the FME sticky "Trading Strategy (Indicators, Etc.)"
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