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Post by ukarlewitz on Mar 1, 2010 11:18:08 GMT -5
Note the return to the late autumn range. Also, the perfect symmetry with between the wave high (mid Jan) and wave low (mid Feb) around the 110.4 pivot. I think we'll see frequent mean reversion.
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Post by triggerhappy on Mar 1, 2010 11:37:41 GMT -5
UK,
Does this mean you think we get back up to SPY 115?
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Post by jack on Mar 1, 2010 11:38:08 GMT -5
"Mean reversion" gives me, personally, a great deal of revulsion.
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Post by ukarlewitz on Mar 1, 2010 11:53:54 GMT -5
If we break 112.5, then I think's quite possible. If Mikey's DX chart is right, and I think it is, then I think it is not likely near term.
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Post by triggerhappy on Mar 1, 2010 11:57:17 GMT -5
Does the DX give us a SPY conducive to swinging around 110.5? To me we go lower with the DX showing strength...
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Post by merrillstanley on Mar 1, 2010 12:42:32 GMT -5
This session's advance has put the stock market up to its best levels in more than one month. The move has also taken the S&P 500 back above its 50-day moving average. However, the benchmark index seems to have run into a bit of resistance at the 1115 line.
Materials stocks have made a recent run to fresh session highs. The sector is now up 1.3% as diversified metals players climb to a 2.0% gain. Metals stocks also fared well in overseas trade as many reacted to speculation that the recent earthquake in Chile will disrupt the supply of copper to the world. DJ30 +75.35 NASDAQ +30.57 SP500 +10.16 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1875/1.02 bln/716 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2355/386 mln/583
Stocks recently made their way to fresh session highs, but they have since eased back a bit. Financials continue to lag with a loss of 0.1%, but the rest of the stock market is up with broad-based gains.
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Post by merrillstanley on Mar 1, 2010 12:43:01 GMT -5
NYSE & NASDAQ volume pacing higher than Friday's tally at this point with NASDAQ noticeably stronger (SPY) : Through the 1st two hours of trading today, total volume on both primary stock exchanges is pacing better than Friday's total with NASDAQ well above yesterday's pace. The increased volume could signal some 'bullish accumulation', especially in the tech. laden & more speculative NASDAQ to open the new month & at the same time end the quarter with quadruple expiration later this month. Additionally, Friday's lighter totals could be attributed to inclement weather in the Northeast. As of 11:30a.m. ET, nearly 334.5M shares have changed hands on NYSE vs. 320.5M on Friday, while over on NASDAQ, nearly 932M shares have turned over vs. 740M on Friday.
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Mikey
Broker/Dealer
Posts: 581
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Post by Mikey on Mar 1, 2010 12:51:24 GMT -5
Covered FCX earlier for 1% loss
Short DAL $13.49
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Post by ukarlewitz on Mar 1, 2010 13:02:04 GMT -5
UUP - 23.73 will be good S. 5dma and both 20 and 50hma. It also likes to trade on the 15m 20ma, as noted on Friday. Coming into that level now.
ITws (not ITms) - SNDK short $32.03; F short $12.26.
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Post by ukarlewitz on Mar 1, 2010 13:06:09 GMT -5
MS back to flat from up 1.6%.
Last week, only fins and cons discretionary were positive; all other sectors red. Fins of course had been laggards; no longer.
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Post by abdogman on Mar 1, 2010 13:09:48 GMT -5
Crude oil has dropped sharply in the last few minutes, down a beaner. Anyone know why?
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Mikey
Broker/Dealer
Posts: 581
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Post by Mikey on Mar 1, 2010 13:15:05 GMT -5
Check out Delta Airlines at a 2-year high today, check out this chart:
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Mikey
Broker/Dealer
Posts: 581
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Post by Mikey on Mar 1, 2010 13:22:14 GMT -5
UNG is tempting here:
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Post by ukarlewitz on Mar 1, 2010 13:44:53 GMT -5
Those airlines have been great longs on oil shorts.
IT - Have The Commercial Real Estate Stocks Bounced Too Far In February? (NYSE:SPG), (NYSE:VNO), (NYSE:IYR) In late December 2009, one of the clues that the major stock indexes were going to decline in the month of January 2010 was the commercial real estate stocks. Leading commercial real estate stocks such as Vornado Realty Trust (NYSE:VNO), and Simon Property Group (NYSE:SPG) headed the rally in 2009 and forshadowed the decline January 2010.
Many traders and investors have thought throughout 2009 that commercial real estate was going to be the next shoe to drop on the stock market. However, that was not the case in 2009 as these stocks not only held up well, but, actually outperformed. In late December 2009 these stocks started to show weakness. The ishares Dow Jones Real Estate ETF (NYSE:IYR), which is a basket of many different real estate companies rolled over at the same time and confirmed that the January decline was industry specific and not company specific.
Now we are back at interesting levels again for most of these commercial real estate stocks. Currently the February move higher has been nothing short of impressive for commercial real estate and the overall stock indexes. However, it has lacked several factors for a sustaining rally. Many of these stocks in this commercial real estate group are trading below their daily 50 moving average. This is something that many institutional traders watch very closely. Then the volume on this rally in February has been somewhat on the weak side. This is also another sign that many institutional traders will take note of. The last factor that we have noticed is that this industry group is now trading into good retracement levels which will usually serve as good resistance area.
These stocks and this sector have been excellent stock market barometers over the past year. The commercial real estate sector is now nearing a very important level. If these stocks start to fall soon the overall market may not be too far behind. Today these stocks are behaving just fine, however, this type of action could change on a dime and might be worth monitoring.
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Mikey
Broker/Dealer
Posts: 581
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Post by Mikey on Mar 1, 2010 13:52:32 GMT -5
Sold 1/2 of my VXX on that pop at $25.82, might get back in if it goes lower
Short more AAPL $209.2 on this pop cost basis now $208.55, it was under $196 just last Tuesday
DAL has some nice neg momo, down from $13.50 to $13.32 in past hour
Dow $10,400 and SPX $1,115 have both been solid resistance levels (on a closing basis) over the past 3-4 months, I think we pull back this afternoon
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Post by ukarlewitz on Mar 1, 2010 14:13:42 GMT -5
Spy - I think we can surmise that 111.9 is some very good R. Of course, the more times that level gets hit, the more likely it is to break. Pierced 3 times today, but no closes above. On the downside, the vwap is providing good S (so far).
UUP - 23.73 mentioned earlier has so far held.
Good A/D today - holding 3:1 (issues and vol). tick has been peaking at 1100 (3 peaks) and we've had nice Spy pullbacks on each. Bounces at tick -700 to -800.
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Post by ukarlewitz on Mar 1, 2010 14:20:39 GMT -5
Carl F
Here is an hourly chart showing day session trading in the e-minis. I think the market is climbing through a stack of 36 point boxes. Today it is in the process of moving into the third box. I think it will rally to the midpoint of the box near 1130, then react to the bottom of the box near 1113, and finally climb to the top of the box near 1150. By the time it reaches the latter level I expect to see the market kissing the top of the green dash trend channel I have drawn.
I still think we shall see the ES trade above the 1200 level sometime during the next three months.
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Post by ukarlewitz on Mar 1, 2010 15:00:20 GMT -5
This is a chart is worth watching. It shows the percentage of stocks in the SPX trading above their 50dma. We peaked close to 90% in January. The bounce has taken us to a high of 60% on 2/18. We made a lower high (52%) last week. We want to see the number of stocks above the 50dma expanding (breadth) with surges in the indices. This shows broad participation. We'll check this again at the close, but so far the internals are showing weakness.
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Post by merrillstanley on Mar 1, 2010 15:01:20 GMT -5
The S&P 500 recently crossed the 1115 line, which put it into positive territory for the year, but it has since eased back a bit to settle along the line. In turn, gains remain strong and broad based.
With a 1.6% gain, consumer discretionary stocks are up the most at the moment. The sector has been helped by strength among retailers (+1.6%). Spending data for January was largely without surprise, though. According to the latest data, personal spending increased a 0.5% in January and core personal consumption expenditures were flat. Financials have made their way to an afternoon high after lagging for the first half of the session. The sector is up 0.3%, but that's still shy of its opening level.
Meanwhile, the dollar continues to drift downward, such that it has now seen its gain halved to 0.5%. Despite the greenback's pullback, commodities continue to trade with weakness. Pressure against commodities has the CRB Commodity Index near its session low with a loss of 0.8%.
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Post by kryptos2009 on Mar 1, 2010 15:02:18 GMT -5
Slow day here in FAStopia........
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Post by ukarlewitz on Mar 1, 2010 15:05:46 GMT -5
Dang. Have a meeting to run to. Be back in a few hours.
Low of day tick here.
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Post by merrillstanley on Mar 1, 2010 16:19:44 GMT -5
hey all, sorry for my lack of focus today, mind was elsewhere
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Post by ukarlewitz on Mar 1, 2010 18:39:35 GMT -5
hey all, sorry for my lack of focus today, mind was elsewhere Damn it, do a better job tomorrow Merrill! That spy vol was the lowest since Jan 19 (yeah, the day the spy peaked). Adding some Vxx in the am.
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Post by Rich on Mar 1, 2010 18:48:36 GMT -5
Ukarl, that chart is a thing of beauty.
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Post by commodityypro on Mar 1, 2010 19:28:35 GMT -5
I knew volume was low Ukar but lowest since the last SPY peak? That's all I needed to know. I am now feeling confident I covered my FAZ short at the right time. GLTY tomorrow!
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