PP-XLF = 14.64 - 3/01 Monday

[kryptos2009]

Good Morning Gang,

Here are the PP numbers for Monday 03/01/2010

FROM: www.allpivotpoints.com

XLF PP=14.64
R1=14.77 R2=14.86 R3=14.99
S1=14.55 S2=14.42 S3=14.33
O=14.59 H=14.73 L=14.51 C=14.68

SPY PP=110.65
R1=111.2 R2=111.66 R3=112.21
S1=110.19 S2=109.64 S3=109.18
O=110.77 H=111.12 L=110.11 C=110.74

SPG PP=78.43
R1=79.16 R2=80.04 R3=80.77
S1=77.55 S2=76.82 S3=75.94
O=78.32 H=79.31 L=77.7 C=78.29

GS PP=156.2
R1=157.14 R2=157.93 R3=158.87
S1=155.41 S2=154.47 S3=153.68
O=156.26 H=156.99 L=155.26 C=156.35

JPM PP=41.62
R1=42.65 R2=43.33 R3=44.36
S1=40.94 S2=39.91 S3=39.23
O=40.69 H=42.31 L=40.6 C=41.97

MS PP=28.06
R1=28.52 R2=28.87 R3=29.33
S1=27.71 S2=27.25 S3=26.9
O=27.73 H=28.41 L=27.6 C=28.18

C PP=3.41
R1=3.44 R2=3.48 R3=3.51
S1=3.37 S2=3.34 S3=3.3
O=3.39 H=3.45 L=3.38 C=3.4

VIX PP=19.78
R1=20.24 R2=20.99 R3=21.45
S1=19.03 S2=18.57 S3=17.82
O=19.88 H=20.53 L=19.32 C=19.5

FROM: www.mypivots.com

UUP PP=23.65
R1=23.73 R2=23.83 R3=24.01
S1=23.55 S2=23.47 S3=23.29
O=23.71 H=23.74 L=23.56 C=23.64

FAS PP=74.62
R1=76.29 R2=77.61 R3=80.6
S1=73.3 S2=71.63 S3=68.64
O=74.04 H=75.95 L=72.96 C=74.96

FAZ PP=17.76
R1=18.07 R2=18.48 R3=19.2
S1=17.35 S2=17.04 S3=16.32
O=17.93 H=18.18 L=17.46 C=17.65

FROM: www.mypivots.com/DeltaT/economic-events.aspx

Monday, 01-Mar-2010
08:30 Personal Income and Outlays
10:00 ISM Mfg Index
10:00 Construction Spending
11:00 4-Week Bill Announcement
11:30 3-Month Bill Auction
11:30 6-Month Bill Auction


GLTA

[lookingherethere]

Personal Income and Outlays
8:30 AM ET


ISM Mfg Index
10:00 AM ET


Construction Spending
10:00 AM ET

[ukarlewitz]

Morning:

Oscar - he's back to being a bull now. He's sees lots of H&S patterns (so cautions for possible trouble down the road) but for now he's bullish as he also sees many bull flags. He'll be a buyer Monday.

Carl - long. Numbers in a moment.

Cobra - cycle turn date this week. Believes the Spx will trade lower, min to 109.

IT - same cycle turn date in the early part of this week. 111.5 solid R, 109 solid S (scalp both levels). Will add second 1/3 short to SDS,SRS, QID, VXX, EDZ at 112. Watch Palm below 6 for bounce.

[lookingherethere]

Good Moring everyone:

News reports may show direction

bloomberg.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=442451&cust=bloomberg&year=2010#top

[ukarlewitz]

Love this Cobra chart:
lh4.ggpht.com/_APmrYvpA45s/S4oNoxzqqwI/AAAAAAAAGpo/x3xzmkXa40o/s1600-h/RydexEnthusiasmIndex[2].png

Essentially, retail investors pushing market up. When they push too hard, the market reverses. Thursday was a big retail day.

[ukarlewitz]

DX pushing a 10 day high in PM. Either this reverses in the next hour or Mr Market will be a grouch this morning.

[ukarlewitz]

Oscar and Carl in agreement with identical marks. Let's see how well this works out.

Oscar - buy low single digit 1100's with target 1112-4.

Carl - Today's range estimate is 1103-1116. The 1130 level is the short term target and I expect the market to reach 1200 over the next three months.


ES now 1107. o/n low was 1104.

[Mikey]

Good morning all. I posted a bunch of monthly charts in a separate thread over the weekend, check them out if you have a minute. I'm watching PALM, CREE, SVA, FSLR, AAPL, and VXX closely today.

Here's the Evil Speculator overview:

EQUITY

Gartley is still a valid pattern - although SPX daily is insisting on running along the upper trend line ‘for the nonce’. A close above SPX = 1114 would definitely suggest a nascent bullish trend. Just as a refresher:

Here are the numbers I get for SPX:

X = 1150.45 (Jan 19)
A = 1044.50 (Feb 5)
B = 1109.98 (Feb 19, 22)
C = 1058.50 - 1069.50 (projected range)
D = 1124 - 1135 (projected range) Go short here if the pattern holds

Asia was green with the Hang Seng up over 2%. Only Karachi was red in all the markets of the region. Europe is gren with only Spain in the red. Breadth across individual markets is weak. The DAX gapped open and now looks weak - like it will try to close that gap. The gap goes from about 5600 up to 5650. This is interesting in that the EUR is being beaten badly in spite of supposed agency buying at 1.36 and again at 1.3580 /90. I guess that it’s the hedge funds against the CBs.

DAX leadership is across the board and most stocks are green. This was a fundamental lift - looking for distribution here if there are any commentors with volume insight. Once again we are faced with the potential of SPX opening up (driven by ES) with a strong USD. When correlations shift, they really do a 180.

ES moved up from the Asia open for most of the night, and then sold off post the Europe open to put in a new LOD reently - paralleling the EUR drop, which is what one would expect from the standard correlation. Pivots:

* R2: 1114 = This would put SPX into a different topping pattern (if not a bullish one, yet). Fujisan at SoH has some ideas about other patterns. My own opinion is that trying to fit a topping pattern over and over is symptomatic of trading with bias. I’m going to try to empty my mind of this (not as hard as it sounds given the relatively uncluttered and empty space up there).
* R1: 1108.75 = ES was comfortably above this most of the night. Some support was noticed before the drop through - so this could be resistance on any rally back up.
* Neutral: 1102.50 = This was a support level at the close on Friday. It was local resistance before that, so the level has some meaning.
* S1: 1097.25 = ES touched this level briefly on Friday. This also looks like it was support and resistance for the second half of last week.
* S2: 1091 = This was support last week, at times.

I really don’t know what to say about what we are saying, except I remain vigilant for signs of distribution. Volumes were higher on Friday and the closing price was near the opening price for SPX - usually a sign. More confirmation is needed but that’s a start.

FX

DXY is back within its local channel. There must have been some news from Europe this AM because it went from sideways action and bottoming to a nice 2 hour rocket move. It looks like each move up in EUR is being met by selling. Give a man a fish and he eats for a day. Give a hedge fund zero-cost money and it eats everyone’s lunch.

Every currency is weak against the USD suggesting that this is the currency of last resort under the present emotional context of the market. This is quite a switch from Friday, no?

EUR is testing the 62% FIB within the channel that began at the start of December. IF the TA on the chart is correct, I would expect upward pressure to come in around here - with the long run FIB of 62% just below at 134.83. There are some TD indicators on the daily chart that suggest that a material move up could happen - TD methodology suggests that if this doesn’t happen within the next 2 days (up to and including Wednesday) that the BUY set up and countdown are just whistle stops on the way further down.

If FIBs have any meaning and aren’t just random lines that work much the same as horoscopes (we see the times that FIBs are support or resistance and ignore those where it isn’t), then this general locale is as good a spot as any for support to come in. Part of it depends on how badly China needs a strong EUR- but not at the expense of the JPY.

[abdogman]

Good Morning gang Kryptos...thx for nmbrs and Gang thx for info GLTA

[lookingherethere]

Market Consensus Before Announcement
The composite index from the ISM manufacturing survey in January jumped more than 3 points to 58.4 for its sixth straight month in positive territory. Looking ahead, the index should remain strong in February as the January new orders index posted its third straight reading over 60, rising more than 1 point to 65.9.

[Mikey]

Here is Rob's "concrete level" on the S&P e-mini at $1,112 - check out all the tails/distribution on the daily chart when price approaches that level. He's looking to short the Euro if it pops up to $135.7-135.8

[ukarlewitz]

That 1112-4 level is on everyone's radar, it seems. I've exalted your awesome charts. 111.5 is scalp short level.

UUP and Spy both up big. Whatever.

[merrillstanley]

morning gang, no Merrill Morning Minute, off to a later start, rainning here and everyone was dropping their kiddos off

nothing to state here but the obvious, sell into strength, there still is not tute part, take some gains and use your best judgement

let me catch up to speed and i'll add more...excellent posts Mikey/UK/LH and again thx Krypt

[merrillstanley]

thinking today will be one of those step up gradualyl days...
step...pause...step...pause...bigger step...pause...pull back...step...pause...step...run

[jack]

Hi Dog & Gang!

I dunno if I should ;D or if I should yet, but GL to everyone!

LOL

[ukarlewitz]

IT - second 1/3 VXX 25.70. You want to be on the right side of that one.

Meanwhile, UUP holding at 23.78 S/R, but that's a monster gap below.

[ukarlewitz]

Palm - now on its 3/09 low.

[merrillstanley]

Maxx BUCY sales declined for the first time this past 4Q, tute rating "B+" and high supply/demand rating, 94, cup and handle appearing, but the volume is high, always get worried when a stock hits #1 in IBD top 100...usually a kiss of death and a good short play
depending on your entry, you may take some gains off the table

[Mikey]

Covered PAAS $21.4

With those funds I shorted AAPL $207.8 on that pop after the news

X/FCX in a nice downtrend, let's get that VXX going

[ukarlewitz]

IT - Palm 5.83 (1/2).

[Mikey]

Some cajones on that ITMS crew

I don't think I'm gonna touch PALM here, looks like it's gonna head lower

[Mikey]

Euro just TANKED

$134.86

[Mikey]

Euro still tanking - 134.60

May cover some FCX or X here on a nice dive

AAPL not budging!! $208.5

STEC breaking out a bit

JPM down 1%

Oil taking a nice dive

[kryptos2009]

XLF @ PP=14.64

[kryptos2009]

XLF 2 touches below PP @ 14.63

[ukarlewitz]

spy could not muster a close above R2 (111.67). Three tries. Now 111.5 R back in play.

If uup can close above 23.9, there is not much R until >24-24.08

[ukarlewitz]

a little in spirit of bull flag on intraday uup, perhaps.

I'm wondering how Chile now plays out in EEM/EDZ/EDC. Copper prices up (major producer). Is there a lasting effect, or is this a knee jerk reaction?

[jack]

Mar 1, 2010 10:52:26 GMT -5 ukarlewitz said:

a little in spirit of bull flag on intraday uup, perhaps.

I'm wondering how Chile now plays out in EEM/EDZ/EDC. Copper prices up (major producer). Is there a lasting effect, or is this a knee jerk reaction?

Bill Hopen's (sculptor in copper and bronze) profit margin just took a hit!

[ukarlewitz]

ES already hit Oscar and Carl's day target 0f 1114. Neither had a position.

[ukarlewitz]

Mar 1, 2010 11:00:03 GMT -5 jack said:

Mar 1, 2010 10:52:26 GMT -5 ukarlewitz said:

a little in spirit of bull flag on intraday uup, perhaps.

I'm wondering how Chile now plays out in EEM/EDZ/EDC. Copper prices up (major producer). Is there a lasting effect, or is this a knee jerk reaction?

Bill Hopen's (sculptor in copper and bronze) profit margin just took a hit!

He's a trader - I'm sure he was hedged.