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Post by cosmic on Sept 14, 2010 15:17:52 GMT -5
Interesting spot. Obviously your exit is a close below 1120. Green Arrow completed a 9 count blue, meaning that this is the first exit point of the Green Arrow play.  However, what I find most interesting is exactly where we ended up as the Fed continues it's POMO's. We are literally right at the shelf overhang of shares created by the flash crash. The typical market behavior here is to push up into the overhang to release inventory, (sell it to some sucker), and then drag the shares down to a lower price to be capitulated upon, then bought up lower and run up again. Wash, rinse repeat. Once the overhang has been removed, you can again try to overtake that spot. Can take many dragdowns first though. But this time, there and waiting at the mouth of the overhang, is Benny. Is he buying the overhang? I don't know. Is the market trying to outrace the bond bubble, so when it does collapse you ahve to enter the market at a higher price? (They ARE market makers...)  So lots to think about. I'm personally selling close below 1120. Today's trades include selling old Kohl's Sep 42 calls I bought a while back, and a few SPY puts as a hedge - currently green on those. (I didn't like the action on FAZ and thought it was a bad omen of an eventual sell-down.)  Details by clicking the pretty picture:  Hope everyone made some money today and will do so tomorrow. Members, please post your results along with your RDA of smileys!  |
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Post by tajmahal9898 on Sept 14, 2010 15:34:42 GMT -5
No trades today...portfolio slightly up
--- notes from other thread ----
FWIW, I am bearish with ~50% cash, ~40% short (CENX and SDS) and 10% long on ATEC...
I am waiting for a 5% correction for week now ... tomorrow is 15th of the month and I might close some position as I need to move money between accounts.. this has been a tough month for me.
I made few silly mistakes...
Sold 30K CENX shares at 10 -- left 45K on the table
Closed MU combo options -- left 22K on the table
Shorted 20K CENX shares at 10.62 (average) - down 16K...
swing of 83K... instead of up 67K, down 16K...
though I am mad with 83K swing, luckily I am still up for the month (15th Aug to 15th Sep)
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Post by demanuel2001 on Sept 14, 2010 15:35:36 GMT -5
Pretty close to a zero day for me - down $5k. Wrote an LVS Sep $32 straddle and bought the $31-$33 strangle. Bought a couple of K more shares.
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Post by brosin on Sept 14, 2010 15:37:03 GMT -5
In real life: My biggest news of the day is that I am finally free of the UNG death trap in my IRA . I sold it for a big loss; I also sold my profits (the Cosmic way) on VALE and FCX to get me back at my original positions there. They were nice profits from my 7/7/09 buys. I purchased CHK ($21.62) and RIMM ($45.10) with those funds. Fed Funds Rate was level at .18% and is even for the week so far. My FAS in real life is green for the 8th close in a row  In the fantasy world: Big Cap Growth Portfolio took a hit (-2.2%) in a few different areas. It is still +1.2% in a week since inception though. My 3 scalps in the Scalp Trading Portfolio have turned into few day long holds (ughhh, stupid to have forgotten to close them Friday, not playing the strategy correction) - still up on them overall - HPQ +2.80% / +$5350, BP +.9% / +$850, RIG -2.4% / -$1470. That account is at $253K for a 3K gain so far (1.2%). As a reminder, if you have not signed the eCard for Dual and his wife and you are planning to, make sure to do it before Friday's market close (4 pm ET)! |
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Post by ask2lern on Sept 14, 2010 15:42:30 GMT -5
yipeee....another day of ..................Only change for me was started to scale into a SDS position................. 2 buys 4K shares total @ 30.64 avg................do have a mental stop in case this thing blows through 1130-1135 and then the index boys will have to chase................I really do not think it will go that way and I will add to the position on continued strength in SPY to that level...................Also I think the vix is WAY TO LOW...............but as we all know it can not only go lower it can go MUCH lower.........................I would have loved to play some puts today but with things so busy(everyone wants to buy gold and silver now) I can not scalp in and out that is why I went the SDS route....................real interesting that we closed well above LT resistance on Gold and an all time high (before adjusting for inflation.......inflation adjusted would be around $2250 YIKES ).............Exalt for Cos...................live to trade another day..................GLTA  |
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Post by bellevuetrader on Sept 14, 2010 15:51:37 GMT -5
Bought more Bear Poop....then again, you all already knew this. I have 1 more small bullet to fire....2 bullets if I liquidate some MVIS. Can't believe it just keeps falling....lol!
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Post by drtracyb on Sept 14, 2010 16:06:29 GMT -5
My FAS in real life is green for the 8th close in a row What is your plan with your FAS? Are you holding it for the long term, or do you have a (mental) stop on it? |
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Post by brosin on Sept 14, 2010 16:15:13 GMT -5
My plan as it was set was to get in with 4-5 entries as close to $60 ($20 post-split #) as possible (I ended up with $20.16 on 5 entries) and ride it up towards $100 ($33) again. A smaller portion of the plan was to at least consider selling some near $75 ($25) as that was a key horizontal range for FAS for many months in the Spring ($60-75).
So that's where I'm at - trying so hard to play this one according to plan. I will reconsider where the market is headed in the $24-$25 range. At worst, I would lighten up half because I think this market has a lot of room to head up in the next 12 months. FAS could eventually get near $120 again ($40) and I'd be looking at a 100% profit. Those 100% moves have been there for the taking over the past 18 months in the 3xs (DRN, FAS, CZM, EDC, etc), but they are usually very difficult to hold that long. I'm going to see if I can do it.
Wish me luck! lol
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Post by Rothschild on Sept 14, 2010 16:17:05 GMT -5
Great trading day for everyone I bet-short and long lots of money to be made and I hope everyone made a bundle. Made money on the short side beginning of the day and on the long side eod with the usual suspects faz and dfs,bac,and usb. initiated another round of shorts before the close with bear etfs faz,dpk, and bgz. Get your seatbelt on; whipsaw wednesday is next! I hope everyone made money like Sir Evelyn De Rothschild and will continue to do so. |
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Post by sloop on Sept 14, 2010 16:27:37 GMT -5
I see the pullback coming..I'm not selling my BAC.. The pull back will be small then up we go. The pattern is about to be broken soon.
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Post by tajmahal9898 on Sept 14, 2010 16:28:00 GMT -5
Bros, good luck... alternatively you can consider five 20% round trips instead of one 100% round trip.
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Post by sloop on Sept 14, 2010 16:30:52 GMT -5
been here before. I smell a huge break in pattern to the up side. but the market has to do its ebb and flow.
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Post by puurfectten on Sept 14, 2010 16:51:02 GMT -5
hey bros..was looking at nat gas stuff after your post..they're draggin it through the mud....a while back ..remember the news story that they were gonna start getting factories to start switching over to nat gas....watch....soon as some policy thing comes out..that'll be the time....but it probably will get a brutal beat down first.. 8-)jmho...
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Post by brosin on Sept 14, 2010 16:54:31 GMT -5
Hey thanks I agree Puur - I won't be able to time it though and it's already taken a shalacking of massive degree. With 5-10 year time horizon, I should be more than ok with it. The nat gas run of the prev 2 decades was nothing short of remarkable.
And should crude continue outperforming, that's ok too because I do own Petrobras and BP in that account.
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Post by exabi on Sept 14, 2010 18:59:29 GMT -5
No trades....slightly down on PCX, but cushioned with the sell of the covered calls last week . Little HTS keeps chugging. Still about 85% cash. This summarizes my market sentiment:  |
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