Cosmic's MarketPlace Wrap - 9/1/2010

[cosmic]

Whew! No baby bear there. Catalyst is war end? Good numbers? Algos Gone Wild? ;D

Ah what a lovely day for a contest, is it not? Thanks to all who have entered, it's going to be a hell of a race. I look forward to the Ups and Downs with you.

Marketwise, what can I say? I'm still doomy, although I did not clear profit today. That suggests my attitude is... Let It Ride. I may come to regret the decision, however I am ready to hedge with Rydex Bear and TZA such that any countermove will have minor impact before the hedges go in. This is now available as an option due to an increased cash position gained yesterday. The market continues to demand that I play defensively until proven otherwise.

Hope everyone made some money today and will do so tomorrow. Members, please post your results along with your RDA of smileys!

[timber]

im making money now thats all i know....call it luck but im very aggressive now no more mr nice guy....

[tajmahal9898]

closed MU bullish option position this morning for $1,500 profit.

Sold CENX too early yesterday, left 15K on the table.. shorted 10K CENX at 10.42.. down 1.4K

[brosin]

Even I am stunned by how fast my FAS position has come back.

No trades, sub penny play MNDP (mentioned in yesterday's wrap) started out the day how I thought it was going to (there was news released this morning after the 77% move yesterday, hmmmm lol)... was +30% early, and then decided to take a dirt nap.

The Clinton Brosin bull is changing his name to the Clemson Brosin bull; hopefully with similar results!

[timber]

one soxl trade.....covered a little faz short not much though....and covered vxx short....and one exel trade.....will short vxx on any pop now....wish i kept the whole short now.....

[demanuel2001]

Like a blind squirrel I called for a quad-bull today and it finally happened! Stock accounts were up $58k - mutual funds haven't reported but probably another $18k or so. About half the P&L today was good old LVS - up $1.06 with more news to come out in the next couple of days. Didn't trade much. Sold some Oct $28 puts early in the day for nice premium - then late in the day bought back some Sep $27 puts - at about their lows and took a nice profit off the table. The net effective trade was rolling a short put position out a month with a move up in strike and executed via a very profitable legging. Very nice start to the month!

[ask2lern]

I want my mommy ...................not a great day trading.............kept averaging down on SPY 107 PUTs until I had more then I cared to ..............avg @ 1.96.........did sell some 105's against that position and closed that but did not sell my 107's so avg is now 1.85 on the 107's so unrealized loss of a whopping -27.5% based on last trade of 1.45...........I am still not convinced the worst is over is why I decided to hold o/n.........it will work or it wont...........we shall see..........I did get my INTC in my trading account out of Jail for a small bail fee .............The INTC in my LT account has decided to try its luck at trial ................Exalt for Cos..................live to trade another day..............GLTA

[cosmic]

I've been in exactly that spot Ask watching Q calls drive from 2.85 to 1.50 and just stunned. Knowing it was a current month call didn't help lol. Good luck.

[sp7015]

My portfolio was up 76% today.

AAPL $240 weekly calls cost basis $4.10 (bought yesterday)
Sold half at $8......95% gain
Sold other half at $10.70.......160% gain

Bought AAPL $250 weekly calls at $2.78 for swing trade during the conference
Sold at $3.00.......7% gain

Bought $100 worth MVIS $2.50 calls on small chance there would be a pico projector in the new Itouch. Boy I was wrong........ 100% loss

HOLDING LONG
aapl 240 sep 10 C
bac 12 sep 10 C
bac 12.5 jan 12 C
crus 15 sep 10 C
crus 17.5 sep 10 C

Overall I am proud of my execution today. I regret selling the first half of my aapl weekly's early but it was less risky to take some money off of the table. I can not tell you how many times I was up big on weekly calls to watch it retrace and give it all back.

Good luck in road to OPEX. Wish I would have put in my order at market open for CRUS.

[Rothschild]

Man, what a 1derful day; I booked my gains a little early but still managed to be up 10% on the day.

Todays development is NOT a good thing. I dont like 2% moves because it has always been the calling card of the bear and wouldnt ya know it closed right at the 38% fibonacci retracement. Bear markets are notorious for destroying not only bulls but bears as well through the process of inflation and deflation (that really hurts when playing with leveraged etfs) The MMs really know how to play the game. Im thinkin crap then gap for thursday; bought some tna,bgz,faz, and drv at the close. Im planning on selling it real quick before I get whipsawed.

Hope everyone made money like Bernanke and will continue to do so. ;D

[jack]

My FAS entry from the 19th is now green...oops just barely now in the AH...DOH!!! ...now red: LOL!!!

[ask2lern]

Sept 1, 2010 15:51:34 GMT -5 cosmic said:

I've been in exactly that spot Ask watching Q calls drive from 2.85 to 1.50 and just stunned. Knowing it was a current month call didn't help lol. Good luck.

Thanks COS.................as you know these things can turn fast and with the IV on the option and vix so low I expect I will be able to reconcile tomorrow for better then what I have now.....stay tuned .................GL

[cosmic]

Sept 1, 2010 15:56:07 GMT -5 Rothschild said:

Man, what a 1derful day; I booked my gains a little early but still managed to be up 10% on the day.

Todays development is NOT a good thing. I dont like 2% moves because it has always been the calling card of the bear and wouldnt ya know it closed right at the 38% fibonacci retracement. Bear markets are notorious for destroying not only bulls but bears as well through the process of inflation and deflation (that really hurts when playing with leveraged etfs) The MMs really know how to play the game. Im thinkin crap then gap for thursday; bought some tna,bgz,faz, and drv at the close. Im planning on selling it real quick before I get whipsawed.

Hope everyone made money like Bernanke and will continue to do so. ;D

I agree, the posts you made have quantified what I'm feeling, i.e. these large moves.

We are in the midst of a Clash of the Titans here, and trading this is especially tortuous. I think smaller is better position-wise.

[tfkness]

I just watched in wonder.... kicking myself now for not getting in it, but when things start moving where I'm not expecting... I'd rather sit in cash and wait for a more comfortable opening...

congrats to all who caught that wave! Nice One!

[trading4dough]

no trades today

watched all the gapper children running around in a panic as the trailer burnt down, they all got out alive although Grandma's hair got burnt off. She is OK though so no worries there

i will wait for my iwm mark might even be in PM

the spx is sitting right below the 20 and 50 ma on the daily and the bear cross of the 20 will hit tomorrow

no stopping that at all

unless we run above 1121 tomorrow

[Rothschild]

Sept 1, 2010 16:04:17 GMT -5 cosmic said:

Sept 1, 2010 15:56:07 GMT -5 Rothschild said:

Man, what a 1derful day; I booked my gains a little early but still managed to be up 10% on the day.

Todays development is NOT a good thing. I dont like 2% moves because it has always been the calling card of the bear and wouldnt ya know it closed right at the 38% fibonacci retracement. Bear markets are notorious for destroying not only bulls but bears as well through the process of inflation and deflation (that really hurts when playing with leveraged etfs) The MMs really know how to play the game. Im thinkin crap then gap for thursday; bought some tna,bgz,faz, and drv at the close. Im planning on selling it real quick before I get whipsawed.

Hope everyone made money like Bernanke and will continue to do so. ;D

I agree, the posts you made have quantified what I'm feeling, i.e. these large moves.

We are in the midst of a Clash of the Titans here, and trading this is especially tortuous. I think smaller is better position-wise.

You know it Cos! this is a tricky spot it could theoretically gap then crap but it seemed waaayyyy too obvious to play it that way. I try my darnest to get inside the heads of the money masters to figure the best way to play and not get smacked down too hard. The market always has a way of humbling me like no other person in my life ever could.

[sloop]

Saw BAC move up in AH trading yesterday and felt that after Obama spoke ( very Lame BTW)
the market might move up hoping he would throw us a bone as to what he was going to do (he didn't) stuck with 25K BAC shares but futures very green last night I had a feeling it would be an up day. Still holding at an average of 12.50 Market has given us a different reversal sign i believe. As far as BAC goes MACD just turned bullish so did RSI.

As far as the S&P 20 MA crossing over the 50 MA this could be a touch and go. and not happen.

[commodityypro]

Hope all those FAS holders booked their profits that they waited so long to get. Call today a gift. Back down tomorrow. Already off almost 1% AH. That's the MO lately, big up day followed by a down day. Only way for MM's to make $$$ on such pitiful volumes and lack of investors who still sit on the sidelines. SPX never overtook the 50sma so the bears still running the show, despite today's action. Anyone who pins their hopes on this action today is asking for it IMO. Loaded up FAZ a tad early but not nervous in the least as I always seem to get in too early. If we go from SPX 1048 to 1100 in 2 days then you better believe something is up and the trap has been set by the bears. IF Q4 of 2009 GDP was 5%, and Q1 of 2010 was 3.2% and Q2 of 2010 was 1.6% as reported....
..then is that not going in the wrong direction? Someone clue me in then please. I don't care about fed funds rate when I have this staring me in the face, not to mention over 500K initial claims still. No ones' buying diddly, as evidence in home sales and GM's report today on car sales. Obama comes on to say that withdraw of last combat troops yet over 50K military personnel will remain over there? lol What a joke this is seriously as we waste billions more supporting a country that will never be what we think it should be. Quote this, "things will be worse off in Iraq in 5 years time then they were when this war started." And what do we have to show for other than billions of "our" taxpayers dolars going to wasted efforts when they could have been put to use in this country to create jobs and confidence in our own economy. Better National Security? LOL that's a good one. If illegals immigrants are entering the US everyday from Mexico then you are nieve to think that terrorists aren't following them over as well. Meanwhile Iran is producing unman'd nuclear planes and N.Korea is testing nuclear missles. I would think they were much more of a threat than Iraq ever was. Not to mention all that the healthcare and financial reforms have done is to cause more job losses and escalting costs that will grip the consumer even more than they already do. Sorry for the rant but people need to look past these anomaly +250 DOW days to what really lies ahead. We as a country allow a non regulated entity run our country right now, the Fed, and we all just sit around and allow this? What has America come to? Scary, scary, scary I tell you. Good night and good luck and I hope ARNA gets approval on Sept. 16th and ARNA runs to $15 on the 17th and I win the OpEx contest.. lol

GL and goodnight!

[bellevuetrader]

I agree with commod! The other day I spoke to a few of my closest people to the market...they say there has been a mass exodus of funds from the market. So much so that insiders are alarmed. Is a 250+ day the Feds way of making people play? Or fear missing out on the next run? If this is the case, market will rise to S&P 1220+...making new highs only to have retail enter again. We're all greedy in our own little sense..the sheep will follow like they always do. What I want more than and up/down market is true price discovery. Fed needs to stop injecting money and having POMO days...Anyone who believes this is a free market should go check the color of your mommys undies!

[Rich]

Sept 1, 2010 16:12:58 GMT -5 trading4dough said:

no trades today

watched all the gapper children running around in a panic as the trailer burnt down, they all got out alive although Grandma's hair got burnt off. She is OK though so no worries there

i will wait for my iwm mark might even be in PM

the spx is sitting right below the 20 and 50 ma on the daily and the bear cross of the 20 will hit tomorrow

no stopping that at all

unless we run above 1121 tomorrow

The gapper children..oh man...too funny. ;D

[Ras]

No trades as the brokerage firm is messing with my account. Regret selling AAPL 240 sep 03 calls too early yesterday as they would have made me some 60k more today. Mad that my bank didn't allow me to buy back those right after I sold it for a lower price. Oh well, at least I haven't lost anything this week.

[exabi]

Unlost some more on PCX....just about .40 to b/e. Back in the green on HTS from a couple of weeks ago. Still about 90% cash in Dave$'s Picked the wrong time to buy EDZ for the contest...shoulda waited an hour or so. Thankfully its just $BB's

[puurfectten]

got stuck in my fazzz today...just watched...couple of days will tell....thinkin we might get 1085 or so but a couple of diji's or something of the like should do it.... ..nice bull day though...

[brosin]

Sept 1, 2010 16:51:40 GMT -5 commodityypro said:

IF Q4 of 2009 GDP was 5%, and Q1 of 2010 was 3.2% and Q2 of 2010 was 1.6% as reported....
..then is that not going in the wrong direction? Someone clue me in then please. I don't care about fed funds rate when I have this staring me in the face, not to mention over 500K initial claims still.
GL and goodnight!

Did you make it purposefully difficult to read without paragraphs?

As for the quoted portion, GDP can be revised, and past Qs are meaningless; what if the next Quarter is 3.2% - then what would you say? GDP, unemployment, you're always clinging onto lagging indicators.

I said ignore the Fed Funds Rate at your own peril, and you're already implying that you are ignoring it because it's meaningless or whatever. I'm not blowing smoke up your a$$ - I'm telling you that the most *Leading Indicator* out there (even more so than the stock market, I would argue) has exploded bullishly after not at all confirming the bearish move down the past 3 weeks.

Now you want to talk about bear traps being set. Sorry, traps don't get set 6% off the bottom. From 1150 - 1220, now THAT was the trap - and that was a LONG way off the bottom.



So assuming we get over 1080 tomorrow, I'm guessing you are still not going to pare back the bearishness? That was the number you mentioned, and we closed above it.

[brosin]

Sept 1, 2010 17:22:19 GMT -5 bellevuetrader said:

I agree with commod! The other day I spoke to a few of my closest people to the market...they say there has been a mass exodus of funds from the market. So much so that insiders are alarmed. Is a 250+ day the Feds way of making people play? Or fear missing out on the next run? If this is the case, market will rise to S&P 1220+...making new highs only to have retail enter again. We're all greedy in our own little sense..the sheep will follow like they always do. What I want more than and up/down market is true price discovery. Fed needs to stop injecting money and having POMO days...Anyone who believes this is a free market should go check the color of your mommys undies!

So it does not matter that even my Grandma called me up the other day and said she was shorting the market and that it was going to tank?

When 65% of the market is expecting a 10% DECLINE in short fashion, that is a pretty easy signal that there aren't that many people left to sell!!!

I give up with you guys. Gapper children lol, yep

[theMIST]

Mad the right call on the poll last night:

"Brosin Bull for tomorrow S&P basing with higher low. I'm thinking we start contra-trend."

Congrats Brosin! You've been waiting for this day. No trades for me today. I still remain skeptical and looking for lower high.

[bellevuetrader]

Sept 1, 2010 18:25:43 GMT -5 brosin said:

Sept 1, 2010 17:22:19 GMT -5 bellevuetrader said:

I agree with commod! The other day I spoke to a few of my closest people to the market...they say there has been a mass exodus of funds from the market. So much so that insiders are alarmed. Is a 250+ day the Feds way of making people play? Or fear missing out on the next run? If this is the case, market will rise to S&P 1220+...making new highs only to have retail enter again. We're all greedy in our own little sense..the sheep will follow like they always do. What I want more than and up/down market is true price discovery. Fed needs to stop injecting money and having POMO days...Anyone who believes this is a free market should go check the color of your mommys undies!

So it does not matter that even my Grandma called me up the other day and said she was shorting the market and that it was going to tank?

When 65% of the market is expecting a 10% DECLINE in short fashion, that is a pretty easy signal that there aren't that many people left to sell!!!

I give up with you guys. Gapper children lol, yep

Your grandma shorts the market? And she said it was going to tank? That's scary. You sure you're related to her? I thought everyone in the BrosinBull camp was long this market...

You know what....I give up with you bulls. You remind me of the bears in April and May of '09 when we would have 1 down day and all the shorts thought the market was finally falling apart.

[jn1520]

Late on this again. Feel like I've been late to class. Anyway, sold half my FAS position mid-day yesterday and bought into AVNR and FBP. So far, so good. If I see a breakdown in FAS, I may sell the remainder and buckle up with another rocket on the launchpad.

[cosmic]

Sept 1, 2010 17:59:01 GMT -5 exabi said:

Unlost some more on PCX....just about .40 to b/e. Back in the green on HTS from a couple of weeks ago. Still about 90% cash in Dave$'s Picked the wrong time to buy EDZ for the contest...shoulda waited an hour or so. Thankfully its just $BB's

I find with HTS I never really worry too much about share price. If it dips, buy some more. It's a longer term hold for me.

[exabi]

That's my intention also.....this one qualifies as a buy and hold.