Cosmic's MarketPlace Wrap - 8/18/2010

[cosmic]

Interesting day, need to do some homework tonight to see if we can get a tell for the next 2 days. It will depend on the Option Greeks, but I think we're down to the individual stock level now, with the indexes just tagging along. Stocks like LVS, JAZZ, and a few others I track have a significant amount of TP still stored in them in both puts and calls, so they are going to have a huge amount of abrasion going on the next 2 days. That TP has to go to 0 by Friday 4pm, so it's going to be interesting.

Still holding my entire JAZZ configuration, and if you look, they successfully siphoned off about $1 in TP between the calls and puts today - yesterday, the 10's were $2.40 combined... today they are 2.10 combined, an dthat included a meteoric rise in the stock of over 13% at it's height. Let 'em do as they will, my position is set through Friday. ;D

As a fun Spec Play, I initiated a position in GOOG 510 calls at .12, and of course they've tanked to .05. It is still a good risk/reward should GOOG move closer to 500 for Opex, but the worst case is $75 loss. I'm not worried about it. GOOG crapped the bed in late day trading, so who knows for Friday.

You can see the trades in my blog by clicking the pretty picture:


That's about it. I did read today that Israel was given 8 days to attack Iran's new nuclear power reactor. I don't know what kind of effect that may have on markets.

Hope everyone made some money today and will do so tomorrow. Members, please post your results along with your RDA of smileys!

[tajmahal9898]

Interesting day... two round trips

shorted LVS twice at 30.4 for 30 cents and 15 cents respectively.. $9K (45 cents) realized profit on 20K shares.

no movement on ATEC today

~85% cash.

Update:

forgot to mention that still holding 200 long Sep TBT calls. down 5 cents or so..

[demanuel2001]

A quiet day today for me. Bought some BP. Sold some LVS. As you mentioned TP is declining rapidly on August options. My screen tells me that my expiring Aug short options will make me $800 tomorrow if the market doesn't move. Up a nice amount today >$10k.

[yjfang]

Bought back FAS Aug $21 covered calls (shorted on 8/12) for a gain 0.31-0.33. Not sure if this was so smart.
Bought back FAS Aug $20 covered calls (shorted on 8/13) for a gain of 0.18.
Most FAS now unhedged.
Shorted FAS Aug $21 covered calls against some FAS for 0.31. Not sure if this was smart.

[Rothschild]

Well, I thought yesterday we would get a nice gap down followed by an up move to baby bull status and fortunately for me it worked out. Sold BGZ&FAZ for gains I didnt buy anything else but Fas @20.26 during AH trading and hope to dump it for a thursday gap up.

Cos, this parabolic move in bonds told me that something was a miss in the markets. Looks like the big boys from behind the door already know about a possible attack on Iran. I hope that doesnt happen. it will be bad for the economy and ultimately put our soldiers in harms way.

[cosmic]

I don't know what to think on Iran. They could get so much further getting rid of Imadinnerjacket. I know they have a profitability issue with their oil, and must sell it in the $80-90 area to make a profit. I don't want anyone in harm's way, no matter how it goes.

[blueskies]

Had a nice little wheat short and a nice little euro short so that made me

Tomorrow might be a bean or bond day. but as my cousin says "look out for beans, bonds, and bellies.!" LOL. haven't traded bellies yet..............

good trading to all!
blue

[sp7015]

Aug 18, 2010 15:37:28 GMT -5 cosmic said:

I don't know what to think on Iran. They could get so much further getting rid of Imadinnerjacket. I know they have a profitability issue with their oil, and must sell it in the $80-90 area to make a profit. I don't want anyone in harm's way, no matter how it goes.

Tidbit of info. Iran has the largest amount of natural gas ran vechicles. The reason for it is because they do not have enough refineries to keep up with demand and there isn't many companies willing to help them build any.

[cosmic]

Agreed, they don't really need the oil for domestic purposes, they need it to sell. The reason they have refinery issues also is because it's *very* expensive to build the type they need - ones that can crack crappy crude. Companies like VLO have the technology to do it, but retrofitting an old plant is too expensive.

[deadmoney95]

Aug 18, 2010 15:37:28 GMT -5 cosmic said:

I don't know what to think on Iran. They could get so much further getting rid of Imadinnerjacket. I know they have a profitability issue with their oil, and must sell it in the $80-90 area to make a profit. I don't want anyone in harm's way, no matter how it goes.

exalt, if for no other reason than calling that idiot "imadinnerjacket"!

[torrentio1]

Still reviewing the session; however...

--looks like it was a bullish consolidating market slightly up portfolio up session with an undercurrent of options expiration activity...

Prognosis remains bullish... I suspect the Euro painting an interim bottom for the last week is now about ready to rumble!

Hope all did well!!!

;D ;D ;D ;D

[exabi]

Added to some SPY puts I'm trying to salvage....may be a lost cause, but I have to try..not a big loss if I do not. My JAZZ shares I sold the ITM covered calls on have not been called yet, but the week ain't over yet.

[cosmic]

I doubt those would get called till Saturday. Even though there's the possibility for an early call, it's very rare. I think you mentioned 1K shares, but given the volume I don't think they'll need yours at $1.60 (I think that's where you were at) vs. someone today's at 2.15 if they shorted the calls near the top.

[Rich]

No trades today again, being a playboy. No work, just play.

Bobby's birthday, fun, cake and ice cream.

Bought him a M16.,,,

I know, I know, but he loves guns

Bad parent, shame shame shame.

[exabi]

I'm at 1k shares, 10 covered calls at 1.36. Looks like I'm lower on the totem pole

[cosmic]

What are your thoughts on the opex close? I'm actually leaning to slightly < 10, which is fine. Although I would turn around and sell quickly or resell calls on that thing. Maybe even the 9's since that's where you'd be at on a basis value.

[cosmic]

Although I'd say the beauty of the close < 10, I'd end up with shares at avg. of 9 from the short puts, I'd keep my original shares at 9.37 (or whatever it is but close), PLUS the calls would close OTM so those 9.37 shares are now basis 8.31, so my combined load avg. will be 8.65. So if I turn around and then sell at a pop to $10, profit is 1.35 on 2X the shares so technically for comparison 2.70/share vs. close > 10 at about $1.63/share. Although the 1.63 is guaranteed, whereas the 2.70 is a little more risky.

[timber]

Aug 18, 2010 19:31:54 GMT -5 Rich said:

No trades today again, being a playboy. No work, just play.

Bobby's birthday, fun, cake and ice cream.

Bought him a M16.,,,

I know, I know, but he loves guns

Bad parent, shame shame shame.

lol..that is bad....i could have never got away with that...hahahahaha

now you need to get him these 100 round magazines....and convert it to full auto

[timber]

[exabi]

Aug 18, 2010 19:36:54 GMT -5 cosmic said:

What are your thoughts on the opex close? I'm actually leaning to slightly < 10, which is fine. Although I would turn around and sell quickly or resell calls on that thing. Maybe even the 9's since that's where you'd be at on a basis value.

It all depends on the timing and results of the meeting, which coincides with opex. Best case - favorable results released after 1630 hrs

[timber]

;D

[Rich]

tres cool, timber.

[puurfectten]

opexy..delay of game..