Cosmic's MarketPlace Wrap - 3/5/10

[cosmic]

Ok I suck at the poll.

Most of my stuff ran Wednesday and Thursday, or so I thought until around Noon today, when suddenly they started to move with the larger market... ELON is a good example. HTS also ran a little today.

Watched as APWR gobbled up a 14% gain in a few days, down to a 1.2% gain on it, and normally I'd be looking at it hard, but not too worried at this point.

MVIS went right to the breaking point and fell back. Feels like it could break the $3 barrier at any point.

Made a .15 scalp on URE today but that was my only trade.

Hope everyone made money today and will do so on Monday. Regulars, please post your results with the RDA of smileys.

[ask2lern]

Nice kick in the nuts today................vix lowest been all year.......I am still holding all SPY 110 PUTS and added 100 SPY 113 March puts @ 1.00 and 2K VXX @ 24.14 avg..............Sold out an AIB position for a real nice gain......my SPY 110 Put is down 23K .................I now get to go to my accountant to do taxes .............hope everyone has a good weekend...............exalts for cos.......................Live to trade another day.................GLTA

[brosin]

I had mentioned to Cos last night that the FFR had gotten up to .15% yesterday morning (I'm always half asleep since it's always the only new email I have on my phone when I wake up). That was the highest it has been in MANY months (I'll have to consult my computer when I get home from work, but I think it's since at least last summer if them).

This morning it had gone up overnight to .16% - credit is loosening up.

And if you hadn't noticed my posts in the past about the FFR, I have found it to be a great indicator as it very often plays out exactly that way for the full market day. Sure played out true today.

APWR had a rough day - this political noise seems to have created a chance for the MMs to run out the weak hands prior to the impending run-up towards the $14s and maybe even $15 prior to March 19 opex. I almost sold my shares to get back in lower, but I've messed up that kind of thing before and decided to hold it regardless now.

Excited for this weekend, and also excited that some FOMC firepower may potentially make me right on my call for a new high as early as next week and a top just before the March 16 meeting:

Mar 4, 2010 19:34:09 GMT -5 brosin said:

Why mess with a good thing? FOMC around the corner and I still think this has all the makings of a large-scale squeeze to put us up near new highs by the middle of next week. 8 trading days and 39 pts SPX to go... definitely possible.

Bull for Friday.

Gotta love it!

[cosmic]

I am not a week hand you turkey

I simply bought back the APWR Mar 15 puts (for a minor profit) and resold the Apr 15 puts... which I sold for more than I sold the Mar 15's.

[brosin]

Mar 5, 2010 16:23:21 GMT -5 cosmic said:

I am not a week hand you turkey

I simply bought back the APWR Mar 15 puts (for a minor profit) and resold the Apr 15 puts... which I sold for more than I sold the Mar 15's.

Do you feel weak or something?

Who said you were a weak hand? I think that was a smart move you made.

[rockbo77om]

I can't take it anymore... I AM the weak hand!! Sold it earlier in the week

[brosin]

Mar 5, 2010 16:29:41 GMT -5 rockbo77om said:

I can't take it anymore... I AM the weak hand!! Sold it earlier in the week

Hey that was the play as it turns out!

I wish I had sold in AH at $13.59 a few days ago. Shouldawouldacoulda bought it yesterday and today. Oh well. Good things come to those who wait.

[rockbo77om]

Yup, I was merely attempting to trade between 13.25 and 13.70. Meant to get back in sooner, but it works this time (and it's rare, trust me lol)

[sloop]

Where do I start!! Yesterday MRVL earnings came out and they were GREAT!! But the stock went down a whole point . I was down 11K in a millisecond. I had no idea why it went down. I bought another 6K AH. All night I just tossed and turned wondering why the stock would dump. In the AM it was up and I sold and made a lousy 500 bucks. BUT I was out with a gain and not a loss. then it went up more. o'well.... So I waited till it went under 20 it did that twice and I each time I bought and sold it at 20.20 The third time never came so I was locked out of the stock. I am now holding 10K of TDMA and DF each. A great day after all. Have a great weekend.

[Rich]

I sold those LVS puts for a loss. couple a hundred bucks. Scalped that eod flag on FAS for about 50 cents. Shares, no calls.

I gotta pick up the kids, but I'll tell you what, we have a lot to discuss this weekend.

This is a very important time for the markets. Financials. Check out GS and WFC again.

This could be very good.

[ccash04]

BIDU continues to rock my world. Unfortunately I should only trade this upside in this stock b/c everytime I do I make a big profit and when I try to short & buy puts I lose. Did nothing today except got more RHT 35 march calls @ .05 cents. Rumors have this as a takeover candidate for IBM and it makes sense. Pretty good day for financials thought about buying some faz after the run-up but I think it still has legs and Mondays have been particularly strong. I look forward to next week and so far it seems easy for the vote just vote baby bull/bull and you will be right.

Finally thought about buying the VXX calls but held off until Monday where I will look at it. The VIX just seems to low in the environment we are in, can it stay this low for that long?

[tajmahal9898]

Excellent last few days...

My FAS short puts are finally ITM.. hurray.. I will buy protection on Monday... I was down 200K on these puts at one time..

AA short puts are up...

traded MRVL for 55 cents.. decent return...
traded STEC for 67 cents.. very decent return

Holding MU over the weekend..

[torrentio1]

I saw a rather juicy who's your daddy market up portfolio up session...

SEMIs are lagging. This will be an exciting weekend of analysis!

Hope all made lots of money to roll around nude in!

;D

[Dualism]

Today’s action had the hallmarks of capitulating short covering. This intermediate bull run is unquestionably entering its maturing phase.

The T-bond futures liked the early morning economic news and reversed course sharply from 119.5 to 118.

The overall breadth was freakishly in favor of advancers: 5557 to 1416.

The VIX penetrated the all important 17.33 level briefly but closed above it. So we have to keep an eye on 17.33 next week. Below that, we are left with one more level at 16.86.

Opened FAZ Apr 18 and 19 calls
Added to FAS Apr 70 puts
Closed out FAS Mar 65 puts for .25
Closed out FAZ Mar 20 calls for .13

With the VIX down 7% today, I had the unusual case where my account lost .7% value. I currently hold 4.5% gain since end of Feb opex. Needed that last sentence to fit a smiley in.-)

I remain mildly bearish for Monday; this market is in need of retracement like its life depends on it.

[timber]

as long as i have some sort of hedge i do much better and can use more fire power long...so thats my stategy from now on always hedge at certain points in the market.....shorted more faz early and bought apwr today....sold gro and thats about all.....still short nflx....it was down on a huge up day...time is ticking on that one

[DaveContrarian]

Mar 5, 2010 16:44:21 GMT -5 sloop said:

Where do I start!! Yesterday MRVL earnings came out and they were GREAT!! But the stock went down a whole point . I was down 11K in a millisecond. I had no idea why it went down.

I posted this before, as I used to play earnings announcements quite a bit.

Assuming that you interpreted the earnings correctly (by the way, this is no easy task and people get it wrong all the time), sometimes, earnings announcements are used by fund managers as opportunities to take profits, because they think things cannot improve in the near future.

Whether a stock moves up or down on an earnings announcements is 50-50 proposition. To put it differently, the market will continue to adjust the price of a stock up to the very moment before the earnings announcement, so that the odds BECOME 50-50.

[Dualism]

Good work Taj.

You wrote: "My FAS short puts are finally ITM.. hurray.."

Those 82 puts are now OTM; long journey. But you certainly are a survivor.

[tajmahal9898]

Thanks Dual....

Actually, I am now holding short FAS 80 puts.. I changed the strike price when I rolled over from Feb to Mar. I really really got lucky this time.

[DaveContrarian]

Sold 300 shares of BAC for a small profit.

Otherwise, just waiting for my other holdings to continue to gain ...

[drtracyb]

Got out of VSTNQ for the day with a 10% profit. Coulda made 30% but missed the only run-up.

Had sold my final shares of BAC yesterday so I'd have free cash if VSTNQ dipped. As it turned out, shoulda held onto BAC cuz VSTNQ never dipped, and BAC went up from where I sold it.

Enjoying the penny stock thing but am not doing my day job ("mommy") well since this VSTNQ thing started, so I'll have to show some self-discipline next week.

I'm still holding MVIS, APWR, DDSS and SPNG. Got rid of IMGG yesterday also to free up cash, which I ended up spending buying too early in APWR today.

[kryptos2009]

Was away for most of the day with errands.

Gave back most of the last 2 weeks profits
Holding 100 FEW Mar 20 2010 18.0 Calls @ 0.56 avg (closed @0.24)
So I'm down $3400 (60%) today.

Started checking out CH's pick VSTNQ, may try for a scalp with it on Monday.

Otherwise looking for a pullback to get out of the FAZ calls.

[exabi]

No trades, nice port up day, I wish I could smite myself for not buying PCX....oh well, this will have to do

[benvestor]

Finished the week strong with my largest weekly gain ever!

Big thanks to CH, Cosmic, Bros, Torr and everyone else here for the coaching and all the pointers given lately.

Still holding previous positions positions, added 3k VSTNQ as a big speculation

Also added to APWR because it has to break out sooner or later.

Some dry powder for monday, just in case we don't get a typical Monday Rally.

GL to all for Monday

-Side note- I wonder how many trading communities there are like this? :Pthis is kind of like trade nirvanna lol, its free to get in and we all share for the good of all; i guess that is why you guys call it fastopia, as in utopia--end ramble--

[alphacpa]

OK, this week reminded me of August run. Up nicely every day thanks to my new love MVIS. Either this stock goes to the moon next week or I have bought into one of the largest, most elaborate con games ever. Potential deals with Microsoft, Intel, Apple ect....Value of company is patent based IMO. No sales today, but up $49,000 from last Friday. Monday after hours guidance will put all of this paper gain at risk if not favorable so no celebrating tonight- well not much anyway. Good guidance on Monday will move the stock large IMO. Holding 100,596 shares.

[emergencytwo]

Sure looks tempting with the steady rise in FAS. I guess we all would have bought into the same game from time to time. I think its psychologically damaging to chase a stock for a slow rise...and then it drops 3 days worth of gain in a day [So im hedged for a slower gain] FEAR seems to beat GREED on the teetor-totter. I think the recent and previous drops are a humbling experience. I wonder if the general sentiment after a volatile period is to take on more risk or to reduce it.
Here is one for thought: Is it greed to take on more risk after losing? Could one take more risk out of fear?

[cosmic]

Mar 5, 2010 20:58:41 GMT -5 emergencytwo said:

Sure looks tempting with the steady rise in FAS. I guess we all would have bought into the same game from time to time. I think its psychologically damaging to chase a stock for a slow rise...and then it drops 3 days worth of gain in a day [So im hedged for a slower gain] FEAR seems to beat GREED on the teetor-totter. I think the recent and previous drops are a humbling experience. I wonder if the general sentiment after a volatile period is to take on more risk or to reduce it.
Here is one for thought: Is it greed to take on more risk after losing? Could one take more risk out of fear?

Losing in this game is a natural occurrence. The goal is to lose less than you gain. Thus great entries based on patterns, solid stops based on trendlines, and DD on what's moving things and why.

There is no greed per se. Only risk.

[alphacpa]

My take is No Falls No Balls!

[tajmahal9898]

Mar 5, 2010 16:44:21 GMT -5 sloop said:

Where do I start!! Yesterday MRVL earnings came out and they were GREAT!! But the stock went down a whole point . I was down 11K in a millisecond. I had no idea why it went down. I bought another 6K AH. All night I just tossed and turned wondering why the stock would dump. In the AM it was up and I sold and made a lousy 500 bucks. BUT I was out with a gain and not a loss. then it went up more. o'well.... So I waited till it went under 20 it did that twice and I each time I bought and sold it at 20.20 The third time never came so I was locked out of the stock. I am now holding 10K of TDMA and DF each. A great day after all. Have a great weekend.

Congrats Sloop.. Great call on MRVL