PPDT -XLF = 15.12 - 11/05 Friday

[ask2lern]

Morning Gang!! ……here are the pivots……….…hope everyone has a great day ………GLTA

XLF

R3 15.88
R2 15.50
R1 15.37

PP 15.12

S1 14.99
S2 14.74
S3 14.36


SPY

R3 126.22
R2 123.87
R1 123.06

PP 121.52

S1 120.71
S2 119.17
S3 116.82


GOLD

R4 1434.37
midpoint 1426.87
R3 1419.37
midpoint 1411.87
R2 1404.37
Midpoint 1401.75
R1 1399.13
midpoint 1394.25

PP 1389.37

midpoint 1386.75
S1 1384.13
midpoint 1379.25
S2 1374.37
midpoint 1366.87
S3 1359.37
midpoint 1351.87
S4 1344.37


SILVER

R4 27.86
midpoint 27.58
R3 27.31
midpoint 27.03
R2 26.76
midpoint 26.67
R1 26.57
midpoint 26.39

PP 26.21

midpoint 26.12
S1 26.02
midpoint 25.84
S2 25.66
midpoint 25.38
S3 25.11
midpoint 24.83
S4 24.56



IMW

R3 74.64
R2 73.88
R1 73.62

PP 73.12

S1 72.86
S2 72.36
S3 71.60



TNA

R4 64.36
midpoint 63.48
R3 62.60
midpoint 61.72
R2 60.84
midpoint 60.53
R1 60.22
midpoint 59.65

PP 59.08

midpoint 58.77
S1 58.46
midpoint 57.89
S2 57.32
midpoint 56.44
S3 55.56
midpoint 54.68
S4 53.80

TZA

R4 21.99
Midpoint 21.66
R3 21.32
midpoint 20.99
R2 20.65
midpoint 20.44
R1 20.22
midpoint 20.10

PP 19.98

midpoint 19.77
S1 19.55
midpoint 19.43
S2 19.31
midpoint 18.98
S3 18.64
midpoint 18.31
S4 17.97

SDS

R3 26.86
R2 26.33
R1 25.98

PP 25.80

S1 25.45
S2 25.27
S3 24.74

………………………..GLTA

[ask2lern]

From www.optionmonster.com ..........................GLTA

Index charts show some rare gaps
November 5, 2010 Fri 12:52 AM CT


The major indexes finally broke out in yesterday's rally, leaving some gaps on the charts.

Gaps in indexes are relatively rare and a hallmark of a reset in trader thinking. With new information--in this case, details of the Fed's quantitative-easing program--prices didn't labor to reach new levels. They simply jumped to them in one step overnight.

The key now is for prices to maintain their new altitude without filling that gap to the downside later on.

Interestingly the Nasdaq 100 which has outperformed the other indexes, lagged the Russell 2000 and the S&P 500. The SPX finally managed to break and hold above its April high, something that only the NDX had been able to do.

All the indexes get new levels today, with areas closer to current prices now replacing the 10-day moving averages as support.

Nasdaq 100 (NDX)

First support is at 2165.57. First resistance is at 2193.66.

For the Nasdaq 100 Index Tracking Stock (QQQQ) first support is at $53.14. First resistance is at $53.86.

S&P 500 (SPX)

First support is at 1197.50. First resistance is at 1233.81.

For the Standard & Poor's Depository Receipts (SPY) first support is at $119.03, the 10-day moving average. First resistance is at $123.83.

Russell 2000 (RUT)

First support is at 719.70. First resistance is at 738.63.

For the iShares Trust Russell 2000 Index Fund (IWM) first support is at $72.10. First resistance is at $73.93.

By: Bryan McCormick

[ask2lern]

From www.optionmonster.com ..........................GLTA

What's behind the plunging VIX?
November 5, 2010 Fri 12:43 AM CT


Volatility has been sucked out of the option market with the VIX losing 15 percent of its value in just the last two days.

The volatility index finished yesterday at 18.50, down 5.3 percent and adding to the nearly 10 percent loss that occurred after the Fed's quantitative-easing announcement on Wednesday. The VIX hit 22 just as the announcement came out and fell as low as 18 this morning before rallying even as the S&P 500 continued to gain ground. The two indexes usually move inversely.

A VIX of 18.50 prices in daily moves of roughly 1.1 percent a day. Clearly the actual move in the SPX was much more than that as it picked up 1.93 percent on the day.

But the 10-day historical volatility coming into the day was an amazing 4 percent, as low as I have ever seen it. Even the 20-day figure--which is the most commonly compared to the VIX--was at 9, less than half the volatility index. (The VIX is calendar days, and historical volatility is trading days) .

So even if the VIX is down to 18.50, that still means that traders expect the actual volatility in the market to double in the next 30 days. And it doesn't end there. While the November VIX futures were down 6.5 percent to put them in line with the spot index reading, the rest of the VIX futures still carry premiums.

December futures finished at 20.95, down 6.3 percent, while January futures were up at 23.95, down 5.5 percent but indicating that traders expect volatility to climb 30 percent over the coming months. If we were to compare the 10-day historical volatility of the SPX to the VIX futures (not really fair, but fun nonetheless) the expectation is for volatility to increase 500 percent.

My first concern is that volatility is mean-reverting, so it probably won't stay at 4 percent. And I don't foresee big gaps up for days on end.

So the volatility is likely to come back into this market on the downside. Second, the volume over the last two days has only been OK; it would have been nice to see some real volume behind this break higher.

And last, to see the VIX and SPX rise together through the day is disconcerting, especially when the realized volatility is so low and should act as an anchor for the volatility index.


By: Chris McKhann

[ask2lern]

From www.optionmonster.com .....................................GLTA

Job report, 7 Fed speakers on tap
November 5, 2010 Fri 12:30 AM CT


The Employment Situation Report will likely to dominate a short economic calendar today. Also, if you are a fan of Federal Reserve speakers, you're in luck because there are no fewer than seven scheduled, many at the Jekyll Island Fed conference.

I have assembled a brief digest of speakers and time at the end of this post. Given that the markets have already gotten what they hoped for with details of the Fed's quantitative-easing initiative, the economic reports and speakers may have less impact.

With the Fed's commitment to step on the gas at further signs of economic weakness, bad news may paradoxically be good as far as the markets are concerned.

The Employment Situation Report will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET. Consensus expectations are for payrolls to expand by 60,000. The range of expected values is from -2,000 to 120,000.

Private payrolls are expected to increase by 75,000. The range in that sub-component of the report is from 15,000 to 150,000.

The Pending Home Sales Index comes out at 12:30 p.m. ET. Consensus expectations are for growth of 3 percent. The range is from -1 percent to 5 percent.

Consumer Credit will be reported at 3 p.m. ET. Most economists expect a contraction of -$3 billion. The range of forecasts runs from a bearish -$7 billion to a very bullish -$200 million.

The Fed speeches begin at 8:30 a.m. ET with with Charles Plosser, president of the Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank, as a moderator of a panel at the Atlanta Fed's conference on Jekyll Island, Georgia.

Thomas Hoenig, president of the Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank, will speak to the National Association of Realtors at 9:30 a.m. ET. Sandra Pianalto, chair of the Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank, will speak at Jekyll Island starting at 9:45 a.m ET. Richard Fisher, president of the Dallas Federal Reserve Bank, speaks at Jekyll Island at 11:15 a.m. ET.

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke will speak at Jacksonville University at 2 p.m. ET. James Bullard, president of the St Louis Federal Reserve Bank, speaks at Jekyll Island at 2:45 p.m. ET. Jeffrey Lacker, president of the Richmond Federal Reserve Bank, is the last speaker at Jekyll Island at 4:15 p.m. ET
By: Bryan McCormick

[ask2lern]

From stocktwits ...........................................GLTA

ukarlewitz
NFP from Bespoke: If Friday’s report comes in significantly stronger and $SPY opens up, history says not to chase it...

Nov. 4 at 10:28 PM

[abdogman]

Good Morning Gang....Ask thx for info......GLTA!!!

[clearwaters]

Thanks for all the info, Ask!

[abdogman]

0830EDT

October Unemployment Rate 9.6% vs 9.6% Briefing.com consensus, Sept 9.6%

October Nonfarm Payrolls 151K vs 60K Briefing.com consensus, prior revised to -41K from -95K

October Hourly Earnings +0.2% vs +0.1% Briefing.com consensus, September revised to % from 0.0%

October Average Workweek 34.3 vs 34.2 Briefing.com consensus, September 34.2

October Nonfarm Payrolls- private 159K vs 60K Briefing.com consensus, September revised to 107K from 64K


back for the open

[clearwaters]

Ok, futures are down, what caused (who?) FAZ and TZA to tank?

[kryptos2009]

Here is the PP Daily Thread (PPDT) data.


XLF PP=15.12
MP=15.25 R1=15.37 MP=15.44 R2=15.50 MP=15.69 R3=15.88 MP=16.07 R4=16.26
MP=15.06 S1=14.99 MP=14.87 S2=14.74 MP=14.55 S3=14.36 MP=14.17 S4=13.98
O=14.89 H=15.26 L=14.88 C=15.23

FAS PP=24.61
MP=25.14 R1=25.66 MP=25.95 R2=26.23 MP=27.04 R3=27.85 MP=28.66 R4=29.47
MP=24.33 S1=24.04 MP=23.52 S2=22.99 MP=22.18 S3=21.37 MP=20.56 S4=19.75
O=23.58 H=25.19 L=23.57 C=25.08

FAZ PP=11.29
MP=11.45 R1=11.60 MP=11.88 R2=12.15 MP=12.58 R3=13.01 MP=13.44 R4=13.87
MP=11.02 S1=10.74 MP=10.59 S2=10.43 MP=10.00 S3=9.57 MP=9.14 S4=8.71
O=11.84 H=11.84 L=10.98 C=11.05

SPY PP=121.52
MP=122.29 R1=123.06 MP=123.47 R2=123.87 MP=125.04 R3=126.22 MP=127.39 R4=128.57
MP=121.12 S1=120.71 MP=119.94 S2=119.17 MP=117.99 S3=116.82 MP=115.64 S4=114.47
O=121.28 H=122.32 L=119.97 C=122.26

SPG PP=102.80
MP=103.90 R1=104.99 MP=105.56 R2=106.13 MP=107.80 R3=109.46 MP=111.13 R4=112.79
MP=102.23 S1=101.66 MP=100.57 S2=99.47 MP=97.81 S3=96.14 MP=94.48 S4=92.81
O=101.88 H=103.95 L=100.62 C=103.84

GS PP=165.16
MP=166.40 R1=167.63 MP=168.25 R2=168.87 MP=170.73 R3=172.58 MP=174.44 R4=176.29
MP=164.54 S1=163.92 MP=162.69 S2=161.45 MP=159.60 S3=157.74 MP=155.89 S4=154.03
O=163.62 H=166.4 L=162.69 C=166.39

JPM PP=39.17
MP=39.83 R1=40.48 MP=40.82 R2=41.16 MP=42.16 R3=43.15 MP=44.15 R4=45.14
MP=38.83 S1=38.49 MP=37.84 S2=37.18 MP=36.19 S3=35.19 MP=34.20 S4=33.20
O=38.14 H=39.85 L=37.86 C=39.8

MS PP=26.19
MP=26.44 R1=26.68 MP=26.84 R2=26.99 MP=27.39 R3=27.79 MP=28.19 R4=28.59
MP=26.04 S1=25.88 MP=25.64 S2=25.39 MP=24.99 S3=24.59 MP=24.19 S4=23.79
O=25.78 H=26.5 L=25.7 C=26.37

C PP=4.28
MP=4.33 R1=4.38 MP=4.40 R2=4.42 MP=4.49 R3=4.56 MP=4.63 R4=4.70
MP=4.26 S1=4.24 MP=4.19 S2=4.14 MP=4.07 S3=4.00 MP=3.93 S4=3.86
O=4.22 H=4.33 L=4.19 C=4.33

VIX PP=18.43
MP=18.66 R1=18.89 MP=19.08 R2=19.26 MP=19.68 R3=20.09 MP=20.51 R4=20.92
MP=18.25 S1=18.06 MP=17.83 S2=17.60 MP=17.19 S3=16.77 MP=16.36 S4=15.94
O=18.03 H=18.8 L=17.97 C=18.52

UUP PP=21.96
MP=21.99 R1=22.02 MP=22.04 R2=22.06 MP=22.11 R3=22.16 MP=22.21 R4=22.26
MP=21.94 S1=21.92 MP=21.89 S2=21.86 MP=21.81 S3=21.76 MP=21.71 S4=21.66
O=21.95 H=22.01 L=21.91 C=21.97

FROM: www.econoday.com

Economic Events & Analysis - 11/05/2010 Friday


8:30 AM ET Employment Situation

Released on 11/5/2010 8:30:00 AM For Oct, 2010
Prior Consensus Consensus Range Actual
Nonfarm Payrolls - M/M change -95,000 60,000 -2,000 to 97,000 151,000
Private Payrolls - M/M change 64,000 159,000
Unemployment Rate - Level 9.6 % 9.6 % 9.6 % to 9.7 % 9.6 %
Average Hourly Earnings - M/M change 0.0 % 0.2 % 0.1 % to 0.2 % 0.2 %
Av Workweek - All Employees 34.2 hrs 34.2 hrs 34.2 hrs to 34.3 hrs
Average Workweek - level 34.3

Highlights
Payroll jobs finally returned to positive territory as the impact of layoffs of temporary Census workers has dwindled. Payroll employment in October rebounded 151,000, following a revised 41,000 decline in September and a 1,000 decrease in August. The October gain came in higher than analysts' projection for a 60,000 increase. The August and September revisions were net up 110,000.

The October jobs report saw the last notable drop in temporary Census workers. But the government sector was not as negative as feared. Government employment fell 8,000 after decreasing 148,000 in September.

Private nonfarm employment posted another gain, advancing 159,000 in October, following a revised boost of 107,000 in September. The consensus called for an 85,000 boost for private payrolls.

Average hourly earnings gained 0.2 percent in October after rising 0.1 percent in September. The October number matched the market forecast. The average workweek for all workers edged up to 34.3 hours from 34.2 hours in October, marginally topping expectations for 34.2 hours.

Turning to the household survey, the unemployment rate was unchanged at 9.6 percent, equaling analysts' median forecast.

Today's report shows the labor sector healing more than anticipated. This is good news for the economy, though there is still a long way to go to return to pre-recession unemployment. On the release, equity futures rose modestly.


8:30 AM ET Charles Plosser Speaks
9:30 AM ET Thomas Hoenig Speaks
9:45 AM ET Sandra Pianalto Speaks
11:15 AM ET Richard Fisher Speaks
12:30 PM ET Pending Home Sales Index
2:00 PM ET Ben Bernanke Speaks
2:45 PM ET James Bullard Speaks

3:00 PM ET Consumer Credit

Released on 11/5/2010 3:00:00 PM For Sep, 2010
Prior Consensus Consensus Range
Consumer Credit - M/M change $-3.3 B $-3.0 B $-7.0 B to $-2.4 B

Market Consensus Before Announcement
Consumer credit outstanding continued to decline in August, shrinking $3.3 billion in August with revolving credit down a sizable $5.0 billion. Non-revolving credit, led by car loans, rose $1.7 billion in
August. For September, the non-revolving component should post a gain as unit new motor vehicle sales rose 2.5 percent for the month, with the caveat that price discounts and other factors can affect the
impact of auto sales on non-revolving credit.


4:15 PM ET Jeffrey Lacker Speaks


Additional World wide Economic Calendar information can be found at the following website.
worldeconomiccalendar.com/

NOTE:
The previous days OHLC data for todays PPDT was gathered from finance.yahoo.com for each individual stock by a series of webquerys built into a spreadsheet.
The formulas used by the www.mypivots.com website to create the Pivot Points were found in the sites help files.
The formulas were built into the spreadsheet which acts on the previous days OHLC data gathered from Yahoo.
The Pivot Points were created using the formulas from www.mypivots.com but NOT by using the site.
Please let me know if you find any errors in the data.
Use of this data is at your own risk.

[Clinton SPX]

wow look at SD

[deadmoney95]

Good morning everyone.

Carl F:

December S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate is 1210-1225. I think this first attempt at a breakout above the April top at 1216 will fail and be followed by a break of 30-40 points. After that the march to 1300 will resume.

Caldaro:

SHORT TERM: inflection point resolved, DOW +220

Overnight (Wednesday night) the Asian markets were all higher. Europe opened higher and closed +1.85%. US index futures were higher overnight as well. At 8:30 the weekly jobless claims were reported higher: 457K v 434K, but Q3 Productivity turned positive: +1.9% v -1.8%. The market gapped up at the open to SPX 1206, breaking out of the recent trading range and resolving the inflection point. The rally continued until around 11:00 when the SPX ran into the OEW 1222 pivot range - hitting 1218. A small pullback followed until around noon when the SPX hit 1214. Then the market tried to rally higher. Also at noon the FED issued the following press release: www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/other/20101104a.htm. For the rest of the afternoon the market worked its way higher, hitting SPX 1221 in the last hour where it closed.

For the day the SPX/DOW were +1.95%, and the NDX/NAZ were +1.40%. Bonds were up 41 ticks, Crude gained $2.00, Gold soared $55.00, and the USD was lower. Support for the SPX remains at 1187 and then 1176, with resistance at 1222 and then 1240. Short term momentum hit an extremely overbought condition this morning and closed there. Tomorrow, the monthly Payrolls report at 8:30 with the Unemployment rate. Then at 10:00 Pending home sales, and at 3:00 Consumer credit.

Today’s gap up opening cleared away the market inflection point as a decision was made. The market then made a sharp upward move right into the OEW 1222 pivot range. This rally cleared out the short term alternate count on the DOW hourly chart, and the alternate count on the DOW daily chart as well. In fact, all four major indices made new bull market highs today. The DOW now reflects the same count as the SPX/NDX. For now, the long term alternate, (1937-1942 scenaro), NAZ count remains.

With today’s market action Intermediate wave three has hit our initial target: the OEW 1222 pivot. This is the same pivot that stopped Major wave 5 of Primary wave I in April. Also, this pivot’s range, (1215-1229), provides a 1.618 fibonacci relationship between Intermediate wave three and Intermediate wave one. With the hourly/daily RSI the most overbought it has been since the middle, (Intermediate wave three), of the last uptrend: Major wave 5. And, the weekly RSI is quite overbought as well. It’s no time for traders to be complacent. The short term OEW charts will remain positive on friday as long as SPX 1200 holds. To clear this pivot the SPX needs to reach 1230. Best to your trading!

[abdogman]

xlf 15.24 on 1m and macd neg

[abdogman]

macd + now on 1m xlf fas ....but neg on 1m drn
xlf 15.30 on 1m

[abdogman]

xlf 15.33 on 1m

[abdogman]

xlf 15.39 on 1m

[abdogman]

macd now + on 1m drn as well as 1m xlf fas
xlf 15.42 on 1m

[abdogman]

macd neg now on 1m xlf fas .....drn on 1m still macd +
xlf 15.40 on 1m

[abdogman]

BB's narrowing on 1m xlf fas faz
xlf 15.45 on 1m

[abdogman]

macd now + on 1m xlf fas and drn
BB's stopped narrowing on 1m xlf fas
xlf 15.49 on 1m

[abdogman]

xlf 15.51 on 1m

[deadmoney95]

Exalt, abdog. Keep that XLF going up for me, will ya?

[abdogman]

BB's spreading on 1m xlf fas and they are on the upper band
xlf 15.52 on 1m

[abdogman]

Nov 5, 2010 9:00:29 GMT -5 deadmoney95 said:

Exalt, abdog. Keep that XLF going up for me, will ya?

GEEE I had no idea Fins were doing so well!?%$

[actuarynomore]

I find this truly amazing that when you normalize FAS/FAZ for all splits that have occured since March 9, 2009:

• FAS is 33% below the 4/14/10 high of $39.12
  
• FAZ is lower (vs 33% higher) than the 4/14/10 low of $10.96
  

Translated - If FAS moves up to $39.12 - FAZ falls to $7.06 or thereabouts!!!

[abdogman]

macd is now neg on 1m xlf fas //drn still +
xlf 15.49 on 1m

[abdogman]

xlf 15.52 on 1m and drn macd just went neg on 1m

[abdogman]

xlf 15.55 on 1m

[abdogman]

macd on 1m xlf fas is +//macd on 1m drn is neg
xlf on 1m 15.60

[abdogman]

xlf 15.64 on 1m