Cosmic's MarketPlace Wrap - 12/21/2010

[cosmic]

Did some major work today on the portfolio and am sweeping profits way up here on a few funds. Market action was grind up. MeatPop says maybe gravy, but good time to reposition.

Sold X puts for .22 gain, which is 11%
Bought SQNM shares at 7.25, sold 7.50 calls for .36
Swept 3 funds: BMEAX, ITHAX, and OPSIX for rebalancing. I really like BMEAX and ITHAX. Both are solid performerss since I bought around SPX 925, and both were up quite substantially, over 50% on BMEAX. I'm keeping a core position of both.

Hope everyone made some money today and will do so tomorrow. Members, please post your results along with your RDA of smileys!

[demanuel2001]

Slooow day for me. Got some time decay on LVS. Got the strange idea to buy some MGM stock. Looks like I'm up about 1/4% of my portfolio.

[Rich]

nice gain on lvs

averaged down on bidu....fairly large position now

still holding ksu which showed signs of life today.

The market is going higher, not too sure about bidu

[timber]

buy to cover tza ung atm machines
sell siri
sell ddss
sell gld
sell mdvn
sell xoma
sell vlnc

only losS was i had to sell prwt because of the reverse split coming...BASTARDS

[timber]

forgot actc....that was a big wintoo

[Rich]

i think I had xoma....man that was a long time ago

[timber]

kess HATED XOMA.....LOL....anyway i held it for a long time now....everyone thinks i sell stocks the same day or close too...mostly true but i hang on to the ones with hope....prwt i had to sell reverse splits suck

[papasloth]

HGSI, SVNT, and LDK all up nicely today. I'm short a lot of Jan. 10 and 11 LDK puts, which are very green right now. Added short SVNT Jan 14 calls, for a covered short strangle. New high water mark in my trading account - up 77% since April.

[exabi]

Still riding the coal train....PCX 7.6%, CLD 1.1% for today. Just keep in on the tracks engineer.

[brosin]

Real Life

FFR was bullish to .21% from .20% - the bullish trend continues to build on itself. Not only is it well into the "all clear" levels for the bulls, but it is only .01% away from a new 8 month high as .22% was last seen only one time on 4/16/10 and before that one would have to go back to July 2009.

.23% would be a 20 month high (previously seen 2/19/09).

Monopoly World / real time entries in my blog - 2nd straight day of no moves, which is a personal record since 9/7/10 inception ;D

Big Cap - no moves, account breakeven / -.1% on the day

I remain 40% long, 60% short

scalp trades - no moves, account down -6.8% on the day

Options acct - no moves, account down -12.4%


All in all, accounts were down -2.9%

[ppppp3571113]

Sold PCX.
Bought CPX at the open (thanks 2 Rich). Stop at 30.00
Moved up my stop on TNA to 74.19 and it tripped late day.
Set a limit buy for TNA at 74.00 and it tripped 6 mins before the close. Stop at 74.05.

[Rich]

Dec 21, 2010 20:08:54 GMT -5 @ppppp3571113 said:

Sold PCX.
Bought CPX at the open (thanks 2 Rich). Stop at 30.00
Moved up my stop on TNA to 74.19 and it tripped late day.
Set a limit buy for TNA at 74.00 and it tripped 6 mins before the close. Stop at 74.05.

I put in a bid for jan calls but it never hit. I shoulda bit the bullet and bought the ask.

[actuarynomore]

Still holding my FAZ but was able to manage a FAS scalp for $500+ today - Grabbed another 3,000 shares of ZTHO sub-$1 and am hoping that'll be the last time we're under $1 - I believe food manufacturers are gonna want what ZTHO makes in a big way - Hope everyone has a great evening and I may not be around much tomorrow as I have to tend to Christmas shopping - Dave

[ppppp3571113]

Bros take a look at the "hot" stocks people talk about here. At least half of them are in the Russell 2000. Including CPX.

[jack]

I did some of that today Dave - ugh!

[ppppp3571113]

Dave the actuary I am surprised you are on FAZ. Your historical data for SPX (in a message you made last month but I cant find dangit) showing december had to be a bull was a CLASSIC and convinced Mr P to go all out long. Best tip I have gotten in months!

[actuarynomore]

Congrats on your great month and this may be the post you were thinking about...I believe we had a negative result for period 1 which put our chances for a negative December at just a little under 50% - That being said, I started selling(buying) FAS(FAZ) after a great first week in December because we were already up something like 25% and I was and still am very concerned about the mother-pumping Fed - Unfortunately, I have lost out on some great upside and I may fall short of my FAS/FAZ arbitrage trade montly profit goal...But then again, I may experience something far greater - Only time will tell...Good luck to you while I sit twidling my thumbs - Dave

Nov 13, 2010 15:04:49 GMT -5 actuarynomore said:

Nov 12, 2010 18:48:00 GMT -5 timber said:

Christmas Rally, or Santa Claus Rally, refers to a phenomenon of stock prices going up in the week between Christmas and New Year (or more generally, in the month of December). Numerous explanations abound, the most popular include: general happiness in the festive season, tax considerations, people investing the Christmas bonuses, and mutual fund managers “dressing up” their portfolio by pushing up the stocks right before the year end cut off date

Hey Timber - Of all the Fastopia Posters, you probably invoke my analytical urges more than anyone with your thought provoking market statements such as the above - I know I am seriously considering the wisdom of my currently bearish position in the face of the Holiday Season and Fed support - So I decided to look at some analysis that might address your assertion and based on the results, HISTORY SUPPORTS YOUR ASSERTION.

What I did was look at the SPX ROR for all years from 1950 through 2009 (60 years) from the first trading day after November 15th of each year through:

• Period 1 - The last trading day of November
  
• Period 2 - The last trading day before Christmas
  
• Period 3 - The last trading day of December
  

Here's what I found regarding positive versus negative periods:

• Period 1 - 36 positive and 24 negative
  
• Period 2 - 42 positive and 18 negative
  
• Period 3 - 42 positive and 18 negative
  

As far as consistency of returns over periods by year, there were:

• 11 years where all periods were negative
  
• 7 years where 2 periods were negative and 1 positive
  
• 13 years where 2 periods were positive and 1 negative
  
• 29 years where all periods were positive
  

I have attached pdf file showing the 1, 2, 3 as well as all Period results and while the All Period results chart is pretty busy, you can look at the difference between:

• Period 2 and 1 to see what happened from December 1 through Christmas
  
• Period 3 and 2 to see what happened after Christmas through the end of December
  

One other result that I found interesting is relative to how Period 1 set the tone for December - When Period 1 was:

• Negative (24 times) - December saw 11 positive returns
  
• Positive (36 times) - December saw 31 positive returns
  

Pretty compelling stuff that does suggest the Holiday Season proves to be a good time to be Bullish and that how the last half of November goes, so goes December.

I would think how the Fed has intervened would skew the results more to the positive but just not sure - It is amazing to me how the sentiment of our community has changed after the Flash Crash - There will always be Bulls and Bears and while we all naturally will miss run-ups and run-downs, I wonder how many of you are like me in that I am more concerned about how the Fed intervention may be setting us up for a more devasting deeper, longer Flash Crash - Don't know and as they say, only time will tell.