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Post by brosin on Nov 16, 2010 16:26:16 GMT -5
(filling in for Cos) The bears filled their hungry stomachs today on bull meat. I find that a little perplexing given the solid bear jamboree session we had going in the poll last night. Add the Fed Funds Rate action, and it appears to be nothing more than the newest version of the bear death trap. The $VIX move mentioned yesterday (showing complacency) did a full 180 degree turn today with a +14% showing  That complacency seems gone, and even potentially skewed to the bears now. A bi-polar market is not surprising, especially during opex -- aka "whiffle" week  Don't expect a straight line in either direction! Hope everyone made some money today and will do so tomorrow. Regulars, please post your results along with your RDA of smileys!  |
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Post by Rich on Nov 16, 2010 16:28:09 GMT -5
my first bad trade in weeks! Maybe I was pushing my luck.... I think we filled 3 of the 600 gaps  |
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Post by sloop on Nov 16, 2010 16:32:50 GMT -5
Holding. Sold tza...so I have no more green on my screen.
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Post by papasloth on Nov 16, 2010 16:47:43 GMT -5
Not counting my chickens, but I just made around 90K being short HGSI puts. Woohoo.
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Post by jack on Nov 16, 2010 16:51:53 GMT -5
Not counting my chickens, but I just made around 90K being short HGSI puts. Woohoo. My sincerest "Congrats!!!" papa! ;D |
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Post by papasloth on Nov 16, 2010 16:53:46 GMT -5
My sincerest "Congrats!!!" papa! ;D Thanks, Jack! I was really sweating it when Blumenthal from the Arthritis Advisory committee went on a diatribe about efficacy, but it all came out in the wash. Much relief. |
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Post by cosmic on Nov 16, 2010 17:03:24 GMT -5
Great job!
No trades but I'm getting ready to pull the trigger on a few.
I still think we may go a little lower, although today sure seemed a little over-the-top. Some follow through selling into opex.
I have to say I'm glad I get rid of those BAC calls - it was one of those positions were you end up buying so close to the top you just have to get out with the 'least loss' possible.
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jn1520
Broker/Dealer
Posts: 719
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Post by jn1520 on Nov 16, 2010 17:08:56 GMT -5
Held my 535 HGSI shares strong...not sure where they'll open at, but I'm assuming way up, given the positive panel vote today. Also held my AMRN position, currently up about 5%. ;D Feeling good! Even better knowing that many blue chips took a beating and gives me and all of us an opportunity to get back in for the next leg up soon.  Back at it tomorrow! |
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jn1520
Broker/Dealer
Posts: 719
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Post by jn1520 on Nov 16, 2010 17:10:11 GMT -5
Not counting my chickens, but I just made around 90K being short HGSI puts. Woohoo. Awesome trade Papa! Nicely done. In addition to my shares, I also picked up 4 Dec $40 calls yesterday for about $0.30 (forget exactly how much)..I wonder what they'll open at tomorrow? Congrats again! |
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Post by timber on Nov 16, 2010 17:11:22 GMT -5
wow you guys did really good.....ive been on both sides of this trade....lol
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Post by papasloth on Nov 16, 2010 17:16:26 GMT -5
wow you guys did really good.....ive been on both sides of this trade....lol I started with a short strangle and closed out the short call side a week or two ago for a nice profit. Then I added to the short put side ahead of this vote. So, I made some money on both sides too |
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Post by brosin on Nov 16, 2010 17:37:34 GMT -5
Bear with me here... make that the 2nd Very Interesting day in a row Real Life FFR was uberbullish for the 2nd day in a row to .21% from .19% - this is .04% explosion in 2 days; we are no longer even near "cautious" territory, and are now in bullish breakout land. .23% and higher has not been seen since 2008 when the target range went this low. Ignoring this type of move from a bear perspective would be disastrous in my opinion. I'm back in my full FAS position, exactly true to the $22.50-$23 plan. I grabbed half of the half at $23 on the dot, and the other half at $22.49. Now back up to my full position, the first half avg $20.16 from mid Aug, and the 2nd half today avg $22.75 for a total of a $21.46 avg. Onward! Monopoly World / real time entries tracked in the blog - by far the busiest day I've had in here, which made for an exciting one for me; helped that all 3 accounts closed at new highs again despite it being a HUGE reallocation day for me  Big Cap had great day of +7.4% on the day today to hit new high of +40%; I really didn't give any of it back as I dumped out almost ALL shorts in exchange for some shiny new long positions Covered: SLW $31.82 (+6%) POT $135.85 (+4.3%) CRM $113.05, $112.78, $109.78 (+1.9%) PCLN $405, $399.20, $400.51 (-1.8%) GOLD $95.45, $93.82 (+1.9%) CMG $230.75, $223.25, $225.58, $225.75 (-2.2%) AAPL $303.10 (+4.7%) F $16.62 (+2.6%) Bought: RIMM $56.75, $56.25, $56.12 CHK $22.01, $21.80 BIDU $104.12, $103.54 BAC $11.90, $11.76 MS $25.71 SLW $31.16 AAPL $302.25 RIG $65.30 CLF $65.10 BP $41.58 SOL $9.90 SIRI $1.36 DRN $46.05, $45.27, $46 What a day - went from 100% short (and terrified when I saw the FFR when I first woke up) to 71% LONG, 4% SHORT, 25% CASH Scalp Trades - couple moves, only a slight up day +1.3%, but built on a new high again thanks to the FAZ that I sold too early this am img442.imageshack.us/img442/1710/scalptradesasof1116.png-Sold my FAZ at the open $11.80 for +5.3% -bought RIMM $57.37, holding unrealized -1.9% (yuck) -bought FAS $22.33, holding unrealized +.8% Options Acct - VERY busy day here as well, but finished +11.8% on the day to hit new high of +400% on realized gains [slightly under counting the current unrealized losses]; I was loaded with 75% of my SPY Dec $123 put position [sold 25% at the close yesterday] which made me worried. But not to fear - -closed it all out in the first couple hours for $5.18, $5.27, $5.30, $5.20, $5.30, $5.33, $5.31, $5.38, $5.46, $5.56 (still left some money on the table) to finish the position with a total of a 27% gain -opened up a small amount of Nov $116 spy calls (avg $2.66, unrealized -5.6%) and bigger amount of Dec $118 spy calls (avg $2.69, unrealized -2.7%) Date Opened Contracts Buy Price Sell Price Total Cost 11/16/2010 SPY Dec $118 calls 200 $2.65 $53000 11/16/2010 SPY Dec $118 calls 200 $2.71 $54200 11/16/2010 SPY Dec $118 calls 200 $2.71 $54200 11/16/2010 SPY Dec $118 calls 200 $2.83 $56600 11/16/2010 SPY Dec $118 calls 200 $2.67 $53400 11/16/2010 SPY Dec $118 calls 200 $2.59 $51800 11/16/2010 SPY Nov $116 calls 150 $2.36 $35400 11/16/2010 SPY Nov $116 calls 150 $2.72 $40800 11/16/2010 SPY Nov $116 calls 150 $2.83 $42450 11/16/2010 SPY Nov $116 calls 150 $2.67 $40050 11/16/2010 SPY Nov $116 calls 150 $2.72 $40800 All in all, accounts were up +12.7% on the day |
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Post by Rothschild on Nov 16, 2010 17:39:05 GMT -5
Nice day for me. I sold my bear etfs too soon and bought bull plays too soon also but it is all part of the fortunes of war I guess. made 2% short side and down 1% on the long side today ;D Weve been talking for weeks about specific points where the market may go on a correction; would you believe that it hit exactly at 1166s?  I even saw it go lower and the bots came in and bought. Whipsaw Wednesday is next. Im through on the short side for now but I will sell if we dont bounce. Hope everyone made some money today and will do so tomorrow |
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Post by demanuel2001 on Nov 16, 2010 17:46:47 GMT -5
I picked the wrong day to decide to hold the line and support the "floor" in LVS. Traded like an idiot - basically my worst day this year - down more than $100k. It happens.
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Post by papasloth on Nov 16, 2010 17:55:23 GMT -5
I picked the wrong day to decide to hold the line and support the "floor" in LVS. Traded like an idiot - basically my worst day this year - down more than $100k. It happens. Sorry to hear it, Deman. You're one of the traders I watch most closely, and if you can have a bad day, then anyone can. Kill it tomorrow! |
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Post by demanuel2001 on Nov 16, 2010 18:02:11 GMT -5
I picked the wrong day to decide to hold the line and support the "floor" in LVS. Traded like an idiot - basically my worst day this year - down more than $100k. It happens. Sorry to hear it, Deman. You're one of the traders I watch most closely, and if you can have a bad day, then anyone can. Kill it tomorrow! Thank you. Looked at dispassionately, I am still up for the quarter. The big question for me is whether or not I can continue to mine LVS |
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Post by papasloth on Nov 16, 2010 18:06:19 GMT -5
Thank you. Looked at dispassionately, I am still up for the quarter. The big question for me is whether or not I can continue to mine LVS Well, you did say last week that you were thinking of taking a break from LVS, since it was getting squirrelly... I'm sure you'll make the right decision either way. |
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Post by tajmahal9898 on Nov 16, 2010 18:12:05 GMT -5
no trades again today..
lost another 8K 6.7K on CSCO.. lost 4K yesterday...
Watching from sideline for now...
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Post by tajmahal9898 on Nov 16, 2010 18:33:43 GMT -5
Not counting my chickens, but I just made around 90K being short HGSI puts. Woohoo. Congrats Man... What was your position (#of contracts) I am really happy for you... |
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Post by actuarynomore on Nov 16, 2010 19:01:23 GMT -5
WooHoo - Finally got to a point where I could unload some of my FAZ holding - In all sold 4,500 shares for a $1,200 profit which seemed so unlikely 2 days ago - Still holding 3K more shares - Snagged 500 FAS at $22.20 but hoping we see more downside so I can unload more FAZ - Hope everyone has a great evening and look forward to seeing you tomorrow - Dave
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Post by papasloth on Nov 16, 2010 19:22:32 GMT -5
Congrats Man... What was your position (#of contracts) I am really happy for you... Thanks! It was the biggest position I've had this year - short 100 Nov. 23's, 50 Nov 24's, and 100 Nov 25's. I wouldn't have been wiped out if it went the other way, but I would have been seriously dented. |
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Post by exabi on Nov 16, 2010 19:26:17 GMT -5
No trades, hoped to get out of my AA puts at b/e today...did not happen, but the week ain't over yet.
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Post by popistoc on Nov 16, 2010 19:27:33 GMT -5
Papasloth,
Congrats! I would have shorted both CSCO and HGSI, one for two. Amazing trade indeed, 90k is lots of money!
popistoc
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Post by exabi on Nov 16, 2010 19:30:43 GMT -5
Congrats Man... What was your position (#of contracts) I am really happy for you... Thanks! It was the biggest position I've had this year - short 100 Nov. 23's, 50 Nov 24's, and 100 Nov 25's. I wouldn't have been wiped out if it went the other way, but I would have been seriously dented. Badly bent is another term |
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Post by papasloth on Nov 16, 2010 19:40:03 GMT -5
You got it, Exabi.
Never bet more than you can afford to lose, but you can't be too scared to play when you have a winning hand (even though you will lose with four aces, sometimes).
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Post by tajmahal9898 on Nov 16, 2010 19:41:33 GMT -5
Congrats Man... What was your position (#of contracts) I am really happy for you... Thanks! It was the biggest position I've had this year - short 100 Nov. 23's, 50 Nov 24's, and 100 Nov 25's. I wouldn't have been wiped out if it went the other way, but I would have been seriously dented. Brave call.. even i had known the outcome, I might not have been able to place this trade... Hats off to you.. Based on the outcome, it was a perfect trade, because of the premium on the calls, your % return would have been limited.. Well done.. Exalt.. |
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Post by papasloth on Nov 16, 2010 19:53:22 GMT -5
Brave call.. even i had known the outcome, I might not have been able to place this trade... Hats off to you.. Thanks Taj. I did a lot of DD on this one, and added to my initial position four times as the panel date approached. I really feel like the majority of put buyers this time around were longs who wanted to buy insurance, and I was in a position to sell it to them . Usually, you expect that put buyers expect the price to go down and want to make a buck out of it - it really felt different this time. Anyway, I hope not to have such a large exposure again any time soon, but it feels good to have this one over and done with. |
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Post by milpower on Nov 18, 2010 5:08:26 GMT -5
Impressed (and I'm "nearly" clueless about options). Would you mind providing some insight as to why you chose those specific numbers for your options on HGSI? Thanks |
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Post by papasloth on Nov 18, 2010 15:26:36 GMT -5
Would you mind providing some insight as to why you chose those specific numbers for your options on HGSI? OK, here's the chronology and my thinking behind each step. First off, given the size of my trading account, I generally size a position in options around 200K-300K in underlying value. That way, if I'm right I get enough upside to be worth the effort, but if a disaster happens I'm not hurt too badly. HGSI was in the 25-30 range, and I like round numbers, so my position size would be around 100 contracts. It's important to realize that you will be wrong sometimes, and to not get wiped out when that happens. "Live to trade another day" should always be your motto. Also, pigs get fat but hogs get slaughtered. My first trade was to sell 100 Nov 32 calls for $2.95 a share at 2:18 on 9/20. At that point, HGSI was trading right around 30, close to its recent highs, but starting to top-out. In addition, implied volatility in Nov call options were extremely high, and I knew the reason was the panel meeting on Nov. 16th. My initial thinking was as Follows: I expected HGSI to remain relatively flat going into the panel meeting. In the meantime, since HGSI was close to its recent high at 30 and close to its all-time high of 32, I figured I would 1). Sell calls to benefit from the decay in option value as the panel approached, 2). Sell those calls at a 32 strike to protect a little against the stock starting to pick up again. My intent was to watch HGSI over the next month and to most likely cover the position before the panel meeting. Heading into 10/19, HGSI had fallen from 30ish to 26ish and my calls were doing well. HGSI was starting to look bottomish. Once again, going into the panel I expected HGSI would trade flatish with maybe a little runup in the last few weeks before the panel. Implied volatility in Nov. options, both puts and calls, was very high. So, once again leaving myself a little margin for error, I sold 100 Nov. 25 puts for $3.10 each. While I still intended to get out of the calls before the panel, everything I had read about Benlysta and HGSI indicated to me that the panel would be between weakly positive to strongly positive. On the other hand, this was widely known. Everyone thought that Benlysta would get a good vote from the panel, so the price had to be baked in somewhat. In other words, I felt pretty safe that the panel would be positive, but I wasn't very positive about the stock price going up after the positive vote. On the other hand, I was pretty sure that the stock price wouldn't go _down_ after a positive vote (I was a tiny bit wrong about that). Anyway, the long and the short of it was to sell near the money puts. That way, if the stock stayed flat or went up after approval, I could pocket the entire premium. If, on the other hand, something scary happened before the panel and I wasn't sure I wanted to take the risk, I would be able to cover my puts before the panel and hopefully make a little in decay. Cut to 10/26. HGSI was definitely trading flat. The panel was starting to get close. My Nov 32 calls were now trading at $0.80 when I had got $2.95 for selling them. I still felt pretty confident that the panel would recommend approval for Benlysta, but that most of the upside was baked in, so the calls were safe. On the other hand, I'd already got 2/3rds the profit from the position, and better safe than sorry, so I decided to cover. So, I closed out my short call position. Net profit on that side was 100*100*(2.95-0.80)=$21,500. Cut to 11/5 (Friday). HGSI had been trading flat all week, but there was a relatively big drop in price to 25.31. I continued to see positive indicators that Benlysta would get recommended. Also, there seemed to be a lot of institutional ownership. But, I wasn't that confident in the bottom. So, I sold a half position, 50 contracts, of Nov 23 puts for $2.62/share, looking to either add more puts if HGSI kept going down, or to just wait out the panel if it stayed flat. On Monday, 11/8, HGSI had another big drop to 24.41 with a big surge in volume at the bottom and a bounce back up to 24.50 some odd. It looked bottomish to me, and I added the other half position short 50 Nov 24 puts at $3.40/share. On 11/12, the FDA preliminary review documents were released and everyone got scared by the suicide and suicidal ideation news. I carefully reviewed the released documents, and decided that the numbers being discussed were too small to be meaningful. In addition, the numbers did not seem out of line with base suicide rates in Lupus patients as a whole, outside of the study. On the positive side, the composition of the Arthritis Advisory Committee was released, and there looked to be at least 9 or 10 "sure" votes in favor (the rheumatologists on the committee, as well as the patients advocate). In whole, I didn't see anything that was particularly scary. However, the market disagreed with me and HGSI was trading in the low 23's. So, I decided to add one more half position and sold another 50 Nov. 23 puts at $3.75/share. And, that's how I ended up with 100 Nov 23 puts, 50 Nov 24 puts and 100 Nov 25 puts. In all, that's about 2 1/2 times my usual trading position, but I felt very strongly about this one and I had already picked up some profit from the short call side. Still, I hope not to find myself quite that committed to a trade any time soon. |
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Don't expect a straight line in either direction!
I even saw it go lower and the bots came in and bought. Whipsaw Wednesday is next. Im through on the short side for now but I will sell if we dont bounce.
