Cosmic's MarketPlace Wrap - 1/21/2011

[cosmic]

Happy Opex! lol Wow, considering how the Dow and SPX looked you'd think it was a good day. I'm showing a LOT of red for those green indexes. Most of the moves were not horrendous, that already happened.

My SQNM position will close today automatically with the 7.50's expiring OTM. I have collected 100% of the premium. It is interesting to note that while I received the maximum on the premium side, there were several 'arbitration opportunities' when the stock was surging up towards 8+ that could have given me similar (read: slightly less) profit. However the difference is I would not still have shares. So it would have technically been a more profitable position in the shorter run.

RCL puts gave back a little today and I lightened the load... still holding DEEP ITM puts.

Hope everyone made some money today and will do so on Monday. Members, please post your results along with your RDA of smileys!

[demanuel2001]

Ah well - finished off a perfect 0 for 4 for the week. Down about 1/2% today leaving me up just 2% ytd. Wrote some 1 day puts today and will get assigned some more LVS stock - not a problem. Decided to go downtown today as in Downtown Vegas and bought 3k shares of BYD. They should survive.

[Rich]

I got sham-wowed on the fas....dirty no good opexers!

Mr P, you were correct about the djt backtest. I owe you a Shlitz...

or the karmic equivalent. 2 or 3

[papasloth]

BLECH!

Bad day for biotechs today, at least the ones I follow. At the moment:
HGSI -2.23%
SVNT -2.99%
OREX -3.21%
ITMN -0.45%
MNKD -8.10%

I only have positions in SVNT and HGSI right now for bios, so it could be worse. But, yech.

LDK:
Naked short Jan 10 puts at .77/sh, will expire out of the money, net +.77/sh
Naked short Jan 11 puts at 1.45/sh, will expire out of the money, net +1.45/sh
I am completely out of my LDK position for now.

HGSI:
Naked short Jan 24 puts at 1.33/sh, will expire out of the money, net +1.33/sh
Sold short Feb 24 puts at .68/sh
Naked short Apr 26 calls at 3.54/sh, bought to cover today at 2.09/sh, net +1.45/sh
Still holding long the stock.

SVNT:
Naked short Jan 11 puts at .505/sh. Will expire in the money. Stock is currently at 10.22, so I will take assignment net -.275/sh.
Naked short Jan 14 calls at .21/sh. will expire out of the money. Net +.21/sh
Sold short Feb 11 puts at 1.05/sh.
Still holding naked short Feb 10 puts at .47/sh.

My expectation is that lots of puts will get assigned over the weekend for HGSI and SVNT, so there should be buying pressure on Monday as people buy back in (or buy to cover). If so, I'll probably lighten up on my SVNT long position and/or my HGSI. HGSI has been pretty good for me over the last six months, and it would feel good to be out cleanly at this point before the extended PDUFA date. Buying to close out the Apr 26 covered calls was the first step toward closing the position.

[timber]

whats the hgsi news i heard floating around

[papasloth]

Nothing much, just appointed former Wyeth CFO to HGSI BoD.
Nothing to cause the stock to go down, really. I think it was pure Opex action after HGSI's pop following the JP Morgan healthcare conference.

[timber]

hgsi looks like a buy right here

[papasloth]

Jan 21, 2011 17:05:58 GMT -5 timber said:

hgsi looks like a buy right here

I've made a lot of money trading HGSI sideways. I'm actually pretty neutral on the stock right now, though 24.59 is probably a good price. Here's my take:

PRO
Almost certain to get FDA approval for Benlysta.
Successful partnership with GSK gives HGSI reach as well as a potential acquirer.
Nice pipeline.
Management seems good.

CON
Market cap around 4-5B. That's a lot for a company who hasn't gotten FDA approval. Benlysta may be in the 1B/yr range after they split proceeds with GSK, but that's subject to FDA approval and labelling issues.
Also, the efficacy of Benlysta is just not that great. It will be an expensive biologic, and they have the same up-hill battle to get insurance reimbursement as the other biologics.
Stock price was flat to down after Advisory Committee voted for approval 13-2. This, to me, is proof that FDA approval was already factored in to a large extent. So, not much of a pop if approval arrives, but major devastation if HGSI gets a CRL.

So, on the whole, I like the stock but the risk/reward ratio to me is starting to get too scary.

This from a man who keeps losing money on SVNT, so what do I know? You'll hear me crowing in six months if SVNT actually gets patients on Krystexxa successfully

[rebel]

riding the short bus
40% short
20% long
i think the big dogs are raising cash......i see the bulls at 3rd & 50






GLTA

[brosin]

FFR was level at .18% - it was a wild and crazy week for the intrabank lending markets. Not sure what to make of it, but the FFR closed the week in "get your parachutes on watch" territory and should easily be into the .20%s by now.

My FAZ re-lost yet a little more

Monopoly World / tracked in the blog

Big Cap - while the 3rd straight day of >$100K in gains was not to be, I'll still take half of that as the account still did very well; acct +2.4% on the day even with the market up pretty strongly as my BAC, CLF, and AAPL shorts and TZA did very well... closed at +89.3% since inception-- barely off a new high as it hit +90.5% intraday today which was my peak. Only a couple moves:

Sells:
(all) MOBI @ $6.58, $6.61, $6.62, $6.66, $6.74, $6.83 for +7.7% on the whole trade (was almost a -20% loss at one point but was only a 1.5x long position)

I am now 0% long, 95% short, 5% cash

scalp trades - no moves, acct -3.2% with FAZ being red

options acct - no moves, account (what was left of it) down -100% and is no more as my SPY $126 Jan puts expired worthless. All in all, it is good that I moved $500K out of it at the start of December; I started with $150K, got up to just over $1M very quickly, and now have nothing to show for it except the $500K in profits that were moved to the big cap. Not sure I'm going to start this account up again with some funds from the Big Cap, but we'll see - I do need more options experience.

All in all, accts were +.9% on the day

[benvestor]

Stopped out this morning and just went back to bed.

Just a break even day, Google sure got smashed so that trade didn't work out as planned.. The chart says atleast 750 tho, but 20% can be made in a few minutes in small caps or options anyways so kiss my arse GOOG

Have a good weekend guys and gals!

[exabi]

No trades, just watched in fascination the action on GOOG, especially today's options. If you bought any of the NTM options yesterday (C or P), you lost money, except for the 630 and 635 Puts, and those were only in the green very late in the day. Some got very lucky buying the 625 Puts at the low of .05, which closed at 12.80....I wonder if anyone actually got that lucky?

[benvestor]

Isn't just amazing to see plays like that Exabi.. Even a $1 to $7 or something is insane..

[brosin]

Jan 21, 2011 19:17:49 GMT -5 exabi said:

No trades, just watched in fascination the action on GOOG, especially today's options. If you bought any of the NTM options yesterday (C or P), you lost money, except for the 630 and 635 Puts, and those were only in the green very late in the day. Some got very lucky buying the 625 Puts at the low of .05, which closed at 12.80....I wonder if anyone actually got that lucky?

Whoever did probably sold them at $.15 or .20 and said "thanks!" Only later to say and

[exabi]

T3F probably made the .05 to 12.80 trade, for about a 1000 contracts.

[tajmahal9898]

Got lucky with long VLNC (overnight position) and short ISRG postion (@333.18) for overall profit of ~6k..

As usual left couple of Ks on the table.. this time i was in a meeting..