XLF Pivot Points - Feb 22

[jack]

elle,

Sold my PCX @ 17.75 - made +10% I'm happy!

;D

[elle]

wish it would pop up a little more, have another fork from december and ye old 2008 line at 1113.20

[elle]

Nice trade, Jack, way to go.

[jack]

Thanks elle!

[ukarlewitz]

Here's our first < -800 tick. Two of 'em. Breadth still neutral.

Carl out at 1108. Plus 4 pts.

[elle]

I'm becoming a big Carl fan.

[elle]

I have 1107.55 SPX support, let's see how big a bounce we get. What does IT have for S, want to see how well they trained me?

[elle]

wow, .20 bounce and then fell right through, wish I could listen, times like this I miss them most.

[ukarlewitz]

IT - VXX at 26.43.

Chart looks like death but this is a good call, imo. Vix <20.

[ukarlewitz]

111.0 and then 110.5. Close below 111 and we have a 50dma failure and a black bar.

[kingdisco]

Feb 22, 2010 15:44:52 GMT -5 elle said:

I'm becoming a big Carl fan.

wow is carl bearish on oil and metals. LOLOLOL

[elle]

Uka, looks like our 61.8 held another day

R, you must be feeling a little better

Didn't get my PCX short, but liked the SRS bounce.

Running off a few minutes early. Nice day, friends and nice to have you back, Cash - feels like Mom has returned.

I better modify this - Mom in the sense of someone young and beautiful that we all count on, not age

[cashfilly]

Congrats to the shorts on the last 3 ticks! A lot stronger than I thought! and the move back up is too late for tda to handle my exit....

Sure missed you all! Nice thread you all have here!

Congrats Jack!

[abdogman]

thx all have a good nite

[cashfilly]

There she goes!

[cashfilly]

Nice bottom tail in DRN...was looking at drv for a swing, think it still goes lower....

Have a GREAT night al!

[ukarlewitz]

I like Carl as well. Very smart and accurate although not infallible. Oscar has gone way down hill. I notice in the videos that there is almost no one in the background clapping anymore. His business must be hurting.

So, black bars everywhere and UUP held the all important 23.68 by a whisker. Vix tested the sub 20 waters. I like it.

[jack]

Thanks cash...looks like its gonna go towards that new tempur-pedic tangerine-flaked streamlined high tech mattress arriving tomorrow.

;D

[elle]

Feb 22, 2010 16:04:49 GMT -5 ukarlewitz said:

So, black bars everywhere and UUP held the all important 23.68 by a whisker. Vix tested the sub 20 waters. I like it.

black bars! black bars! Yeah, thanks........................................Dad.

[Mikey]

I'm a big fan of Carl as well - I have MAD respect for his math and charting skills, he is a total geek who I could imagine sits around with a drafting desk, protractors, and slide rules figuring out how the next perfectly geometric box will set up on his charts.

He has been awfully accurate lately, but a word of caution - I've followed him long enough to know that he weighs the bullish side of his contrarian thesis a lot heavier than his bearish side. In other words, he is great at identifying those moments of max fear in the markets, when there's doom and gloom on the front of the magazines, as buying opportunities; however, he is not as solid at identifying the euphoric bulltard phases as potential tops - just check his posts from 2007-2008.

One thing's for sure - when Carl says the markets going to have a downward correction of xx points, which is roughly equal to the xx point retracement from xx-xx to xx-xx, you better pay attention.

UK, I'm not ready to give up on Oscar yet. He is in a massive slump, and I spoke with someone at the Traders Expo that says he is "dangerous" and has "ruined people," but for our purposes, when we're just evaluating certain strategies or views that he has, then making our own independent decisions - I don't think it can hurt to take his opinions into account - who knows, maybe he'll be our new contrary indicator instead of that Murphy guy.

Cheers all. Believe it or not, I'm happy with today - didn't lose any money on a day where I took some aggressive positions. I was VERY fortunate to scale out of my DDR short at $9.90 and $9.91 this morning (it popped to $10.20) and then put that money to work in over-inflated stocks such as X, PCX (great trade Jack), TIE (nice drop near the close) and HD. Only loser was that CREE call - whose dogsh!t pick was that??

[jack]

I'm a thanking ya Mike!

[doglover]

Welcome Cash
Great to have you over here, you have been missed.

[cashfilly]

Thanks DL! Nice to see you!
I'm looking at some long term charts and before we turn, I could see us going to the 16's in faz and spg double topping in the low 80's. Those are nice candles going up on SPG with no top in sight....I'm really weak when it comes to swings, but I know I pulled out of my drn too soon...may re-enter for a couple more days....with a stop. I've got a half position in VXX and looking for a bottom there...

We've pierced through and now closed above a key resistance/support level for drn...might be more on the upside before this pup turns. We've got Case Shiller tomorrow and Big Ben and new home sales weds. Any thoughts?

-"mom"

[cashfilly]

Even the financials have some catching up to do....I see the toppiness in SPY but FAS now convincingly above the 20/50/200 could go for more..I'm not challenging - just trying to read these charts....today with light volume it pulled back to the consolidation levels but didn't breach that...Kind of thinking that might be a good thing?

[ukarlewitz]

Mikey, I definitely agree with you on Carl and Oscar. Interesting comments on Oscar, I think. I continue to weigh the opinion of 5 punters: Itms, Carl, Oscar, Murphy, Cobra and Tony Caldaro. It seems to work.

Elle: I may have to smite you for that one.

I think VXX is going to be a winner.

[lookingherethere]

Feb 22, 2010 11:15:29 GMT -5 elle said:

Bye, L, good day to you as well. I thought you were a monk!

I did go monkish but I am thinking I need a girl friend.

[lookingherethere]

Feb 22, 2010 17:04:53 GMT -5 cashfilly said:

Thanks DL! Nice to see you!
I'm looking at some long term charts and before we turn, I could see us going to the 16's in faz and spg double topping in the low 80's. Those are nice candles going up on SPG with no top in sight....I'm really weak when it comes to swings, but I know I pulled out of my drn too soon...may re-enter for a couple more days....with a stop. I've got a half position in VXX and looking for a bottom there...

We've pierced through and now closed above a key resistance/support level for drn...might be more on the upside before this pup turns. We've got Case Shiller tomorrow and Big Ben and new home sales weds. Any thoughts?

-"mom"

Cash!!! Well I am glad ur back, these guy's are animals Good to see ya. Let's have coffee in the morning

[lookingherethere]

by the way would anyone be interested in trading desks?

[Mikey]

Trading desks?

Hey UK here's a video by the T3 guy that I referred to earlier, confirms our "short the Q's" thesis, he's looking at the divergence between a rising S&P and lagging "market leaders" such as AAPL, GOOG, and GS.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=CVj9goDz0Q4

As long as they're giving me a free membership I'll check their stuff out. They rock the reggae music at the beginning of the vid, maybe all these traders hit the sensimilla like that Cheech guy does.

Speaking of which, here's his latest:
www.youtube.com/watch?v=XwtP-eag_ag

Cheech is definitely bearish, noting the VIX<$20 as very interesting and identifying a "bearish thrusting pattern" and "tweezer top" that closed below the 50dma on the S&P.

Also they're doing a webinar on some of the indicators we use (TICK, A/D, VIX etc) - it's $200 though so I'd recommend it more for someone not familiar w/them that wants to learn. Personally I think you can find most of the info you need on Youtube for the most part, but just throwing it out there.

[Mikey]

Nice drop in the e-mini S&P over the past hour from a high of 1,112.75 (right at Rob's concrete wall and ITMS' iron curtain (?) at around 3:30am down to 1,105.0 at 5:50am.
quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=CME_ES.H10.E&v=w&w=60&t=c&a=10

Euro also came up to test its descending resistance and failed hard, completely reversing its overnight rally. See below for a chart of this year's price action in the Euro: