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Post by jack on Feb 22, 2010 11:53:51 GMT -5
Scroll down on main page to Forum Stats and click on the 100 last Cash.
Did you get the news on CVM???
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Post by ukarlewitz on Feb 22, 2010 11:54:25 GMT -5
Cash: When I hit 'refresh' on my browser it goes to the most recent post.
Glad you're here. Newbie. Let's see how long that designation lasts.
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Mikey
Broker/Dealer
Posts: 581
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Post by Mikey on Feb 22, 2010 11:57:22 GMT -5
Short CREE $66.51 thanks UK
From http://www.fool.com:
Great company in a great and growing industry, but getting very, very pricey; particularly in an commoditized industry that should have a glut of capacity by 2011. The risk here is that growth in LED lighting increases CREE's revenues so much that earnings skyrocket upwards over the next 5 years and drive the price even higher than the current $62 price point. But I'm betting against that. My view is that revenues will grow, but margins will shrink over the next 5 years.
Free cash flows are probably in the $1 - $2 per share range currently and Net Tangible Assets are around $14 per share. That gives Cree a Price/NTA ratio of about 4.5, which seems very high in a commoditized industry. I wouldn't want to pay more than 2.5 - 3.0 times NTAs in this kind of industry.
The highest analyst project for 2011 I see is around $1.72 per share. That gives CREE a forward PE of around 36. If you assume that CREE can earn $2 per share with a strong revenue growth rate, I'm still not sure that it's worth $63+ per share. Let's say $3 per share before earnings level off --- that probably gives them a valuation of about $60 at best.
I could definitely be wrong and I do believe Cree is a spectacular company in an absolutely vital and growing industry. Just think that $62+ is getting very expensive.
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Post by jack on Feb 22, 2010 11:57:49 GMT -5
Hi all! Is there any way to see most current first on this? Thx! "Yaaaaaaaaaaaaay!!!!" Cash joined up - here's some good karma just atcha! ;D
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Post by kryptos2009 on Feb 22, 2010 12:05:13 GMT -5
Cashfilly,
Great to see you here!!!!
You've been Exalted!!
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Post by kryptos2009 on Feb 22, 2010 12:13:11 GMT -5
XLF @ HOD
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Mikey
Broker/Dealer
Posts: 581
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Post by Mikey on Feb 22, 2010 12:25:29 GMT -5
Short TIE $12.29 at its 50dma
Was watching this one in the high $10's around 2/12 for a long, but missed it - it's had over a 10% run since. With its 200dma down at $10, most of its MA's below, as well as two recent gaps up - I think it'll bounce off that 50dma and maybe pull back to the 20dma around $11.75 at the very least.
MVIS taking a beating, glad I got out of that - probably won't get back in until it breaks that downtrend on the 5-minute chart - looked like it was going to bounce but then broke down again. Will definitely get back in though...
Of the 5 short ETF's that I'm holding in my IRA, I'm green on ERY and EDZ but taking about 3-4% of heat on DRV/FAZ/TZA.
Lightened up on my DDR short around $9.90-9.91 this morning, SPG is looking like a good short here at $78.
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Post by cashfilly on Feb 22, 2010 12:27:53 GMT -5
Yep double top on 14.61 but GS and JPM a little momo here...need reits to finish their pullback ...spy back to 110.9 next small support 110.80....
DRN putting in a nice bottoming tail here if she holds
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Post by worldclass422 on Feb 22, 2010 12:27:56 GMT -5
Good Morning Kryptos, Thanks for the PP. Mikey, Thanks for the charts. Everyone, Have a good day.
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Post by ukarlewitz on Feb 22, 2010 12:30:14 GMT -5
MCZ - IT gem pick. Back in range. 0.45-0.49. Might be worth watching for a longer swing.
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Post by elle on Feb 22, 2010 12:33:20 GMT -5
Did anyone see the Ovechkin-Jagr dance yesterday? "KaBOOM!" lol, Jack, I knew you were a dance fan. I am close to dance and dancers, unbelievable athletes, very disciplined and mentally tough, they will push through any amount of pain if at all physically possible
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Post by elle on Feb 22, 2010 12:35:24 GMT -5
SRS at R again, trying to get through that line all day
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Post by kryptos2009 on Feb 22, 2010 12:41:02 GMT -5
XLF broke through 14.61....will it hold?
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Post by cashfilly on Feb 22, 2010 12:45:17 GMT -5
MS has joined the party....JPM looks to want more...going to do this the hard way...no buy programs today.... Double touch top on the 10's....small pullback...I don't think she's done yet... are these smiles really puking on each other? lol
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Mikey
Broker/Dealer
Posts: 581
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Post by Mikey on Feb 22, 2010 12:45:59 GMT -5
UK, I visited these guys at the Traders Expo and they gave me a free trial period on their service, they posted on Twitter that they're shorting CREE also: blog.t3live.com/2010/02/cree-busting-wedge-higher.htmlAlso looks like Dow $10.4K was support now resistance, and if you look at a 15-min chart of the Dow, the 20ema was above the 50ema all of last week - they're about to cross right here at $10,395. Hey Cash great to have you back!!
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Post by cashfilly on Feb 22, 2010 12:57:39 GMT -5
Great to see everyone! going to take some time to get used to all of this! Charts don't look so pretty here...on the dark side.....triple top xlf and fas.....lunchtime dip coming?
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Post by elle on Feb 22, 2010 13:02:14 GMT -5
everything else looks bullish, but SRS poking through R - they better not be messing with me
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Post by elle on Feb 22, 2010 13:03:06 GMT -5
CASH, I knew you'd miss us too much to stay away (or the market, but I prefer to think it's us)!
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Post by ukarlewitz on Feb 22, 2010 13:04:27 GMT -5
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Post by jack on Feb 22, 2010 13:07:36 GMT -5
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Post by cashfilly on Feb 22, 2010 13:13:16 GMT -5
I've let Itms educate me....have their daily on
DRN bottom in? looks like it--temporarily....
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Post by cashfilly on Feb 22, 2010 13:17:02 GMT -5
UUP needs to hold this 23.71
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Post by elle on Feb 22, 2010 13:33:17 GMT -5
BS TA
premise: ran the markets up without participation for opex
premise: need to get their money out now
therefore, a) squeeze shorts, b) hover at resistance selling into buyers looking for break higher or c) pullback to pick up volume
hmmmmmm
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Mikey
Broker/Dealer
Posts: 581
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Post by Mikey on Feb 22, 2010 13:33:17 GMT -5
Cash I think you have to be the only member on this board to have karma exceeding your # of posts...gotta feel the love on that stat...
UK the link worked but the chart didn't fill in - though I'm behind a firewall so it might be screwey
I'm sold on the HD short - just got in at $30.33
So I'm short HD, DDR, CREE, PCX, TIE, X, and long VXX in my trading acct
Long ERY, EDZ, FAZ, DRV, and TZA in my IRA
Nice balanced portfolio
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Post by elle on Feb 22, 2010 13:39:07 GMT -5
Mikey,
One can never say you fail to commit.
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Post by ukarlewitz on Feb 22, 2010 13:41:01 GMT -5
Spy range tightening. tick range super tight, with ma at zero line. Breadth neutral (getting more bearish on the nas). It's going to break big in one direction or the other.
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Post by ukarlewitz on Feb 22, 2010 13:42:30 GMT -5
I exalted Mikey on his portfolio.
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Post by cashfilly on Feb 22, 2010 13:45:43 GMT -5
Finally.....FAS new high....14.64 soon?
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Post by Rich on Feb 22, 2010 13:47:07 GMT -5
I'm having a lot of fun with my short position Whata wonderful !@#$$%^& world
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Post by Rich on Feb 22, 2010 13:52:47 GMT -5
Has anybody noticed tis is the 9th positive day for FAS in a row?
I'm beside myself.
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