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Post by brosin on Nov 29, 2010 10:18:06 GMT -5
We're very close (if not there already) to having put in a big time bottom. You know, the one that in hindsight looks like a 'duh' moment. In a month or two, we may be looking back at these last few sessions and saying "wow" as I fully expect us to be into the mid to high 1200s soon enough.
1/26/11 update: good call / thumbs up.. but too bad I didn't get all that much out of it as I got bearish far too early
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Post by demanuel2001 on Nov 29, 2010 10:19:56 GMT -5
Be greedy when others are fearful
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Post by cosmic on Nov 29, 2010 10:20:29 GMT -5
Hmmmmmm
/Channeling Meat-Pop
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Post by herceg1967 on Nov 29, 2010 10:20:58 GMT -5
Love the positive outlook................now we need Comm and Belle to come out with their disappointing outlook............  BOL to all !!!!!!!! |
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Post by clearwaters on Nov 29, 2010 10:23:29 GMT -5
Be fearful when others are greedy!
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Post by Clinton SPX on Nov 29, 2010 10:24:51 GMT -5
So your calling a bottom on the euro then?
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Post by brosin on Nov 29, 2010 10:27:01 GMT -5
So your calling a bottom on the euro then? I don't see where I said that. |
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Post by brosin on Nov 29, 2010 10:34:28 GMT -5
Hmmmmmm /Channeling Meat-Pop Let's be honest here - while Meat may be correct, is that extra 2.5% to 1150 *worth it* as a countertrend move with all the buying power sitting just waiting to come on board? We already started seeing the panic up move... why fight it more than they already have? The move from 1225 to 1175 was NOT easy to get - NO ONE wanted to go short up there. Remember my "how much of your account is short" poll? And how much people were telling me I should've been worried about my "death to shorts" portfolio that had a 100% short allocation in the biggest runners? |
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Post by cosmic on Nov 29, 2010 10:36:54 GMT -5
Meat would say that it depends on how you were going to play along.
If you are doing options, Meat thinks your positions would wind up 'well done' and cooked - not very happy.
If you are buying and holding long, Meat thinks your positions will eventually pan out... Some day.
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Post by brosin on Nov 29, 2010 10:41:30 GMT -5
Meat would say that it depends on how you were going to play along. If you are doing options, Meat thinks your positions would wind up 'well done' and cooked - not very happy. If you are buying and holding long, Meat thinks your positions will eventually pan out... Some day. LOL - 'some day?' You really don't think they will pan out within a couple weeks at maximum? FOMC meeting is brosin bday 12/14... going to most likely hit a new high right around then. Not even sure the volume will be around at that time to take us down... more likely we don't even put in a pivot and just keep going up through the first FOMC meeting of 2011 if you ask me |
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Post by cosmic on Nov 29, 2010 10:53:53 GMT -5
It would obviously depend on what you pick, Bros. If you are playing mainstream indexes like SPY or whatever, then more possible. But pick an individual stock and you never know.
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Post by brosin on Nov 29, 2010 11:08:02 GMT -5
Seems easy enough - pick a few (or more than a few would be even better) high beta names, and how could you lose?
I'm not finding it all that difficult to catch a good portion of the moves by playing upwards of 10 stocks at a time. I've got 5 shorts and 10 longs right now for example
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Post by bellevuetrader on Nov 29, 2010 11:44:35 GMT -5
Love the positive outlook................now we need Comm and Belle to come out with their disappointing outlook............ BOL to all !!!!!!!! LOL!! Hey....I've been long BAC for the past week or so...underwater a little, but no concerned. I feel we'll be 1250+ by end of year. Christmas rally is about to begin any day now! |
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Post by herceg1967 on Nov 29, 2010 12:07:19 GMT -5
Belle - Just to hear you are long is intriguing in itself.............LOL....
BOL to you !!!!
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Post by novice08 on Nov 29, 2010 12:24:26 GMT -5
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Post by brosin on Nov 29, 2010 12:27:27 GMT -5
Wow good point N, hadn't heard anything about POMO lately! (Another good sign for the bulls?)
There seem to be a lot of them for the next 1-2 weeks.
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Post by novice08 on Nov 29, 2010 12:35:47 GMT -5
By my count, at least $36 Billion coming between now and Dec. 9th. And could be as much as $66 Billion...
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Post by brosin on Nov 29, 2010 12:41:53 GMT -5
And that's only the *extra* money the Fed wants to pump in. We get the latest Excess Reserve numbers (money that is ALREADY in reserves waiting to be "created" and entered into the economy in the form of new loans) on Thursday this week. This picture is still worth a trillion words as to how much there still is to go on the inflationary front:  |
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Post by commodityypro on Nov 29, 2010 14:39:55 GMT -5
I've had more credit card offers the last few weeks in the mail than in the last few years. This is like it was in the 07' height with multiple CC offers in the mail daily. Let's ramp up the engine again. lol
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Post by brosin on Nov 29, 2010 15:31:07 GMT -5
I've had more credit card offers the last few weeks in the mail than in the last few years. This is like it was in the 07' height with multiple CC offers in the mail daily. Let's ramp up the engine again. lol Now that's the spirit Comm. ;D |
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Post by brosin on Nov 29, 2010 16:00:34 GMT -5
Is it safe to say the answer is that "we were there already?"
I was only about 10 minutes off ;D
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Post by timber on Nov 29, 2010 18:27:23 GMT -5
i lovethose tiny houses
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Post by jack on Nov 29, 2010 19:14:08 GMT -5
I've had more credit card offers the last few weeks in the mail than in the last few years. This is like it was in the 07' height with multiple CC offers in the mail daily. Let's ramp up the engine again. lol you aint buying much stuff to ramp up in one of these. news.yahoo.com/s/ap/us_tiny_housestiny budgets are here to stay 1st Year Architectural problem: Design a house w/ just 1000 cubic feet - the solutions were really pretty amazing! |
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Post by Clinton SPX on Nov 30, 2010 1:27:07 GMT -5
Asian Stocks Extend Falls as China, Europe Concerns Temper U.S. Sales Data
By Shani Raja and Jonathan Burgos - Nov 30, 2010 12:50 AM ET
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Asian stocks dropped, erasing gains for the month, amid concerns Europe’s debt crisis may spread and China may raise interest rates to curb inflation. Exporters rose after a report showed U.S. consumers increased holiday spending.
China Construction Bank Corp., the nation’s second-biggest lender, decreased 1.6 percent after a Chinese Academy of Social Sciences economist said the government needs to raise borrowing costs by another 2 percentage points. Komatsu Ltd., a Japanese maker of mining trucks and excavators that gets about 19 percent of sales from China, slipped 2.2 percent. Li & Fung Ltd., the biggest supplier to retailers such as Wal-Mart Stores Inc., climbed 2 percent in Hong Kong.
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 0.7 percent to 128.72 as of 2:05 p.m. in Tokyo, with more than two stocks falling for each that rose. The measure earlier climbed as much as 0.4 percent.
Today’s decline means the gauge has dropped 0.5 percent this month, the first retreat in three months. China ordered banks to set aside larger reserves twice this month after raising interest rates in October to fight inflation.
“Interest rates in China are still too low,” said Pauline Dan, Hong Kong-based chief investment officer at Samsung Investment Trust, which oversees about $72.1 billion in assets. “I’d rather see China normalize interest rates sooner rather than later. Inflation is not good for the economy over the longer term.”
China’s Shanghai Composite Index slumped 3 percent, headed for its biggest decline since Nov. 16. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index slipped 1.1 percent. China’s recent increases in banks’ reserve requirement ratio won’t be enough to reverse excessive liquidity in the system, Zhong Jiyin, an economist with the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, wrote in a commentary in the China Daily today.
Chinese Lenders Drop
China Construction Bank slipped 1.6 percent to HK$6.97 in Hong Kong. Industrial & Commercial Bank China Ltd., the nation’s No. 1 lender, lost 1.3 percent to HK$5.88. Bank of China Ltd., the third-biggest lender, fell 1 percent to HK$4.14.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Average lost 1.8 percent, the most since Oct. 12, as a report showed the nation’s unemployment rate climbed. The share measure rose 10 percent this month to yesterday, the fastest pace among gauges for the world’s 40 largest equity markets.
Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index fell 0.7 percent. South Korea’s Kospi Index gained 0.2 percent, rebounding from two straight days of declines in the wake of an artillery attack by North Korea last week.
“Some investors feel relieved that there’re no further provocations by North Korea,” said Seo Jung Ho, a fund manager at UBS Hana Asset Management Co. in Seoul. “Jitters may linger for a while, but there seems to be an increasing perception that this geopolitical issue won’t spread further.”
Ireland’s Problem Spreads
Futures on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index fell 0.4 percent today. The index slid 0.1 percent yesterday in New York as Ireland’s bailout failed to ease investor concern that Europe’s debt crisis may spread.
Ireland, swamped by the bursting of a decade-long real- estate bubble and unemployment approaching 14 percent, became the second country to tap European assistance this year, following Greece. Officials meeting last weekend in Brussels agreed to an 85 billion-euro ($111 billion) bailout package.
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index dropped 2.1 percent last week on concern the European Union will fail to contain the spread of Europe’s sovereign debt crisis and as North Korea bombarded South Korea.
“I don’t think the geopolitical risks have been priced in,” Samsung Investment’s Dan said. “This risk is more difficult to measure than Europe’s credit crisis. In the case of a sovereign debt crisis, you will have some idea on the time frame on how this is going to roll out.”
Biggest Declines
Gauges of industrial companies as well as energy and raw material supplies led declines among the 10 industry groups in the MSCI Asia Pacific Index on concern economic growth in China will slow as the government intensifies efforts to curb inflation.
Komatsu, the world’s No. 2 supplier of construction and mining equipment, dropped 2.2 percent to 2,323 yen. BHP Billiton Ltd., the world’s biggest mining company dropped 1.2 percent to A$42.74. Jiangxi Copper Co., China’s largest producer of the metal, decreased 2.6 percent to HK$22.30 in Hong Kong. Cnooc Ltd., an offshore oil producer, slid 0.8 percent to HK$17.02.
Japanese steelmakers dropped in Tokyo after Mizuho Securities Co. cut investment ratings. Nippon Steel Corp. declined 2.4 percent to 283 yen, while JFE Holdings Inc. slipped 2 percent to 2,678 yen.
Japan’s Jobless
Separately, Japan’s unemployment rate in October rose to 5.1 percent from the previous month’s 5 percent, the statistics bureau said today in Tokyo. The median forecast of 25 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News was 5 percent.
Hynix Semiconductor Inc., the world’s second-largest computer-memory chipmaker, slumped 4.8 percent to 23,600 in Seoul. KTB Securities Co. cut its share-price estimate to 23,000 won, saying the company will probably post operating losses through the end of next year’s third quarter.
Among advancing stocks, exporters climbed after a report showed U.S. consumers spent more over the Thanksgiving weekend than last year, signaling fuel demand may increase in the biggest crude-consuming nation.
The average shopper in the U.S. spent 6.4 percent more over Thanksgiving weekend than last year as more people picked up jewelry and toys, heartened by the economic rebound.
Exporters Advance
Li & Fung, which counts the U.S. as its biggest market, climbed 2 percent to HK$48.70 in Hong Kong. Techtronic Industries Co., maker of Ryobi power tools and Hoover vacuum cleaners, gained 2.1 percent to HK$8.40 in Hong Kong. Nintendo Co., maker of Wii video game consoles, rose 3.9 percent to 22,830 yen.
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index increased 7.6 percent this year through yesterday, compared with gains of 6.5 percent for the S&P 500 and 3.3 percent for the Stoxx Europe 600 Index. Stocks in the Asian benchmark are valued at 14.3 times estimated earnings on average, compared with 14 times for the S&P 500 and 11.6 times for the Stoxx 600.
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Post by brosin on Nov 30, 2010 13:19:25 GMT -5
Is it safe to say the answer is that "we were there already?" I was only about 10 minutes off ;D The ole bots were trying to make me wrong, but they better try a little harder  LOD yesterday 1173.64, LOD today 1174.14 Made avg +30% / .83 on SPY weekly $116 calls from avg $2.77 - did not at all plan on this working out so well today. Probably should've held, but these were too far ITM and I wanted to roll into some a bit closer... a gap down tomorrow would be great ;D Thank you |
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Post by Clinton SPX on Nov 30, 2010 13:38:01 GMT -5
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Post by brosin on Nov 30, 2010 14:12:04 GMT -5
Are you trying to say that's a good thing or a bad thing Clinton - what sticks out to me is where the spikes were. Biggest one was right at 9/1/10 - that turned out to be a GREAT buy spot
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Post by Clinton SPX on Nov 30, 2010 14:15:55 GMT -5
LOL - its just a thing Bros
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Post by benvestor on Nov 30, 2010 14:35:59 GMT -5
CPCE intraday is not valid.. wait till eod
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Post by brosin on Dec 1, 2010 20:15:20 GMT -5
this is the opposite of what i wanted to see when looking at this, but still gotta post it ;D  |
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