|
|
Post by brosin on Jan 18, 2011 23:30:04 GMT -5
It's a tough spot here Janey - I think it is significant that we have reached fairly extreme levels of call buying compared to put buying, and even more significant that the last time we reached this level was in April of 2010. The market would top on 4/26 after a similar -- but now much smaller -- rally and the flash crash would happen on May 2010. Things may be different now - I'm not sure. But it worries me at a basic level for just this indicator.
|
|
|
|
Post by ccash04 on Jan 18, 2011 23:50:54 GMT -5
a couple of questions, .. along the spirit of "asktolearn" What parts of the graph are the most significant? Is the critical signal the lower extent of the last weekly bar at 0.37, or is it the number of weeks where the weekly bar does not cross the MA, or are these too specific and mainly just consider the trend of significantly less puts? In the last weekly bar it ranges from 0.37 to 0.55-- the upper end doesn't seem that concerning, but the lower is When I compare the time before the May 2010 pull back there are about 7 weeks starting in March where the values are all below the MA, but only at the very end is the extreme value of 0.32 I'm asking b/c I was moving towards mostly cash in early Dec, but am now more invested. thx Janey Typically anything under .5/.6 is extreme, now its .4 is the level to watch.. I dont know how many people here watch the ISEE Equities Only Index but it shows a similar thing (overly bullish market) and it has gone above 300 (which you never see). Typically anytime it hit close to 300 the market would pull back. It has done this 11 times since Dec. That's unheard of and has had its all time high readings. Bottom line is trying to top tick the market has proved disastrous and usually these indicators work but recently that hasn't been the case so relying solely on them is not a good strategy. Obviously jumping into the market with both feet probably not a good strategy but trying to short the market might be worse. |
|
|
|
Post by brosin on Jan 19, 2011 13:03:19 GMT -5
|
|
|
|
Post by janedoji on Jan 19, 2011 23:24:23 GMT -5
Thx for the information on the charts brosin and ccash,
next time you say you're scared, I'm going to run first and ask questions later. ;-)
janey
|
|
