|
Post by brosin on Jan 18, 2011 18:43:52 GMT -5
I guess I'm just a yogi bear... BUT this is frightening 2/18/11 update: thumbs down, clearly another bad call with the market having flown to SPX 1340+
|
|
|
Post by cosmic on Jan 18, 2011 18:47:06 GMT -5
Exactly Bros - all insurance sales have been designed to not pay off. The market responds by not taking insurance.
When there are enough uninsured...
|
|
|
Post by Rich on Jan 18, 2011 18:48:47 GMT -5
No fear.
just pomo.
|
|
|
Post by brosin on Jan 18, 2011 18:51:56 GMT -5
Doesn't even one person think that the POMO bots would LOVE to start this all over again from a WAY lower level?
I just think back to 4 months ago, and then to 8 months ago, and can't come to any other conclusion than one suggesting the market and everyone in it is bi-polar to the 160867460347624908th degree
Is my frustration starting to show? ;D must be close
|
|
|
Post by Rich on Jan 18, 2011 18:56:59 GMT -5
there is no other answer, bros.
I don't like it either.
descending triangles breaking upward, over and over again.
balderdash.
it's Ben and his fed monkeys.
they won't let it drop.
|
|
|
Post by brosin on Jan 18, 2011 19:01:58 GMT -5
it's Ben and his fed monkeys. they won't let it drop. seriously though... once everyone believes this (we have GOT to be close if not well there already, judging by the CPCE...), then what? there is no free lunch - never has been never will be. i will not buy at these levels or at any level until the washout comes - because there is 0% (not a misprint or exaggeration) chance it is not coming... i'm not picking up pennies in front of this steamroller. i made the easy money being long in august through dec. the easy money is going to be made having gone short for the last however many points above wherever the next washout takes us. and the higher we get, the less likely i am to believe the longer term trend is still up. yep i said it - rainman bull is losing his mojo
|
|
|
Post by Rich on Jan 18, 2011 19:06:10 GMT -5
it must reach the tipping point. not there yet. I thought it was 2 weeks ago
|
|
|
Post by Cosmic on Jan 18, 2011 19:06:49 GMT -5
If I buy a stock I think is reasonably priced, even before aforementioned washout, I sell calls. I absolutely will not be uncovered in these here times.
|
|
|
Post by Rich on Jan 18, 2011 19:09:45 GMT -5
I was seriously thinking about just buying the istock, put in a trailing stop and wait for the correction.
what the hell.
|
|
|
Post by birthmark on Jan 18, 2011 19:10:35 GMT -5
there is no free lunch - never has been never will be. Truer words were never said Bros.
|
|
|
Post by brosin on Jan 18, 2011 19:12:34 GMT -5
November was when the market should naturally have topped
But there was POMO which has distorted things for now in the short term.
The questions one has to ask are
1. Is the path of this POMO rally sustainable?
2. (Hint for #1) Is POMO over the long term a realistic solution?
3. (Hint for #2) Is POMO supposed to be a realistic solution?
The answers as I see them are easy; it is the timing that is less easy. When in doubt, I always assume that what we are seeing is by default an illusion... like in April when it seemed like the market was in a hurry, or in August when we all thought 'the bottom was about to fall out' and/or 'the Euro was going to parity,' or here in January when 'the Fed won't let it go down.'
|
|
|
Post by exabi on Jan 18, 2011 19:16:12 GMT -5
If I buy a stock I think is reasonably priced, even before aforementioned washout, I sell calls. I absolutely will not be uncovered in these here times. I took those words of wisdom to heart.....bot PCX the other day, sold the covered calls, was locked in during the big drop on Friday, bought the calls back, green on the trade by about .30 vs. being underwater by about the same amount.
|
|
|
Post by timber on Jan 18, 2011 19:17:32 GMT -5
where did i hear dont fall in love with the downside not to long ago
|
|
|
Post by Sakami on Jan 18, 2011 19:18:04 GMT -5
there is no free lunch - never has been never will be. It's different this time.
|
|
|
Post by Clinton SPX on Jan 18, 2011 19:18:29 GMT -5
Doesn't even one person think that the POMO bots would LOVE to start this all over again from a WAY lower level? I just think back to 4 months ago, and then to 8 months ago, and can't come to any other conclusion than one suggesting the market and everyone in it is bi-polar to the 160867460347624908th degree Is my frustration starting to show? ;D must be close No, They are taxing inflation. If every thing resets there will be nothing to tax. Its so simple it's brilliant.
|
|
|
Post by Rich on Jan 18, 2011 19:18:59 GMT -5
what's really wild is we haven't had a correction for almost a year.
now that ain't right.
or natural.
|
|
|
Post by brosin on Jan 18, 2011 19:19:06 GMT -5
I was seriously thinking about just buying the istock, put in a trailing stop and wait for the correction. what the hell. I would tend to agree with you, but then there is that whole 'what good is a stop when the market becomes bidless' gorilla in the room... which is why I wouldn't personally play it that way. I confined myself to missing out on however much further the market runs for now - I think it was/is an easy decision given how much I made in a short time frame from the long side, but even so, I just see far more risk being long than short. Far more. And it typically takes a lot for me to say that. My "take what the market gives me" strategy has now been put in a scenario where I feel like the market is handing us 'easy money' short positions for free in the near term.
|
|
|
Post by brosin on Jan 18, 2011 19:20:01 GMT -5
what's really wild is we haven't had a correction for almost a year. now that ain't right. or natural. I dunno, the one in August was a doozy wasn't it?
|
|
|
Post by brosin on Jan 18, 2011 19:21:13 GMT -5
Doesn't even one person think that the POMO bots would LOVE to start this all over again from a WAY lower level? I just think back to 4 months ago, and then to 8 months ago, and can't come to any other conclusion than one suggesting the market and everyone in it is bi-polar to the 160867460347624908th degree Is my frustration starting to show? ;D must be close No, They are taxing inflation. If every thing resets there will be nothing to tax. Its so simple it's brilliant. Clint could you elaborate, I'm not quite smelling what you're stepping in
|
|
|
Post by Rich on Jan 18, 2011 19:22:24 GMT -5
the whole summer was really just sideways action coming off the correction of May.
In my mind.
|
|
|
Post by timber on Jan 18, 2011 19:24:14 GMT -5
stops dont work huge gap downs...thats where it hurts
|
|
|
Post by Clinton SPX on Jan 18, 2011 19:24:22 GMT -5
watch this entire video and the taxing inflation will make complete sense
|
|
|
Post by brosin on Jan 18, 2011 19:25:02 GMT -5
there is no free lunch - never has been never will be. It's different this time. I'll admit: there is part of me that doesn't wonder if you're not right... But if that is the case, it's more a matter of semantics still, because as I see it, this would be a 5-10 year inflationary boom/bubble the likes of which the world has never seen (would make sense given how much fiat has been printed relative to how much had been printed before) that will end with the bubble bursting and the world as we know it "changing" or collapsing depending on what happens. Problem is that when spending goes to the moon, there needs to be a war to sustain support for it..
|
|
|
Post by brosin on Jan 18, 2011 19:26:37 GMT -5
the whole summer was really just sideways action coming off the correction of May. In my mind. at the time it sure didn't feel like we were going sideways
|
|
|
Post by Rich on Jan 18, 2011 19:28:00 GMT -5
Leann watched this vid and she understood it.
And she hates anything financial.
|
|
|
Post by Clinton SPX on Jan 18, 2011 19:43:30 GMT -5
If your in a hurry start at 21:58
|
|
rebel
Broker/Dealer
Tried & True
Posts: 434
|
Post by rebel on Jan 18, 2011 19:51:47 GMT -5
all this looking over bought is true but looking at the chart i can't find resistance until 1333 what are ya seeing
|
|
|
Post by timber on Jan 18, 2011 20:00:50 GMT -5
i agree....maybe a pullback at 1300 for a brief pullback...it sure i scary way up here....i wonder what those profesional fund managers think
|
|
rebel
Broker/Dealer
Tried & True
Posts: 434
|
Post by rebel on Jan 18, 2011 20:37:21 GMT -5
very very scary > i will get shot just hate to miss a move i'm putting the s & p out of my head & following fire.....so many are in feeding frenzy
|
|
|
Post by janedoji on Jan 18, 2011 21:16:02 GMT -5
a couple of questions, .. along the spirit of "asktolearn"
What parts of the graph are the most significant? Is the critical signal the lower extent of the last weekly bar at 0.37, or is it the number of weeks where the weekly bar does not cross the MA, or are these too specific and mainly just consider the trend of significantly less puts?
In the last weekly bar it ranges from 0.37 to 0.55-- the upper end doesn't seem that concerning, but the lower is
When I compare the time before the May 2010 pull back there are about 7 weeks starting in March where the values are all below the MA, but only at the very end is the extreme value of 0.32
I'm asking b/c I was moving towards mostly cash in early Dec, but am now more invested.
thx Janey
|
|