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Post by brosin on Dec 2, 2010 10:30:26 GMT -5
(Not to V, but the follow up to 'Where's the Drop IV?')
But so where's the drop? Those who shorted the banks and those in cash would really like to know!
With all those "scary" things going on over the past 2 weeks, you would think a +250 day in the markets would've set up very nicely for a good drop
;D
1/26/11 UPDATE: Good call / thumbs up... should've stuck with the bull side longer than I did
past episodes of "Where's the Drop" can be found in their entirety in my blog
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Post by herceg1967 on Dec 2, 2010 10:32:46 GMT -5
I agree Bros...............funny how all the doom and gloom disappears on days like this............no offense to Comm, but he was convinced of a drop.........I hope he dumped his FAZ...............
JMO and BOL..............
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Post by sloop on Dec 2, 2010 10:37:55 GMT -5
The drop is in his undwear..LOL!!
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Post by Rich on Dec 2, 2010 10:38:24 GMT -5
spx is free and clear....
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Post by brosin on Dec 2, 2010 11:24:15 GMT -5
I agree Bros...............funny how all the doom and gloom disappears on days like this............no offense to Comm, but he was convinced of a drop.........I hope he dumped his FAZ............... JMO and BOL.............. It wasn't just him though, not even close I don't think. Everything had the look and feel. Hell I was even worried going into this last weekend (last 2 thanksgiving weekends = not good). Once I saw that futures were not +25 that Sunday night (and the FFR kept showing *no* bearishness on the news), it was time to start preparing w/ poupon! Such a perfect setup, as usual |
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Post by sloop on Dec 2, 2010 11:26:44 GMT -5
Dudes!!! And Dudets!! This baby has legs!!
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rockbo77om
Futures Trader
Nonsense, I have not yet begun to defile myself.
Posts: 260
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Post by rockbo77om on Dec 2, 2010 11:30:37 GMT -5
Dudes!!! And Dudets!! This baby has legs!! How far up them legs you think we are?? ;D |
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Post by actuarynomore on Dec 2, 2010 11:43:15 GMT -5
Such a perfect setup, as usual Who's to say THIS isn't the perfect setup? |
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Post by sloop on Dec 2, 2010 11:51:11 GMT -5
Dudes!!! And Dudets!! This baby has legs!! How far up them legs you think we are?? ;D im thinking S&P 1300 for now |
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Post by brosin on Dec 2, 2010 11:52:16 GMT -5
Such a perfect setup, as usual Who's to say THIS isn't the perfect setup? Me  As far as I know, the captain hasn't told us we have to put our seatbelts back on ;D In all seriousness though, touche Dave. Could be. Your friend the FFR has been signaling this was coming though (through its *inaction* and not from its *action* though) |
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Post by sloop on Dec 2, 2010 11:52:17 GMT -5
look at the S&P weekly 1300 looks possible
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Post by brosin on Dec 2, 2010 11:52:49 GMT -5
How far up them legs you think we are?? ;D im thinking S&P 1300 for now Geez really? Let's slow down a little bit LOL |
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Post by Clinton SPX on Dec 2, 2010 11:54:00 GMT -5
The ECB and the FED have taken risk off the table today. the EUR chart says they will print all they have to. Socialize the risk and privatize the profits. Inflation trade is back on.
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Post by brosin on Dec 2, 2010 11:56:31 GMT -5
The ECB and the FED have taken risk off the table today. the EUR chart says they will print all they have to. Socialize the risk and privatize the profits. Inflation trade is back on. Was it ever off?  |
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Post by sloop on Dec 2, 2010 11:57:18 GMT -5
im thinking S&P 1300 for now Geez really? Let's slow down a little bit LOL Laugh if you like.......Laugh it up funny boy..LOL!!!! IM BABABAB BULLISH!!!!! |
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Post by Rich on Dec 2, 2010 11:58:15 GMT -5
yeah funny boy! ;D ;D ;D
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Post by Clinton SPX on Dec 2, 2010 12:08:13 GMT -5
The ECB and the FED have taken risk off the table today. the EUR chart says they will print all they have to. Socialize the risk and privatize the profits. Inflation trade is back on. Was it ever off? well the ECB wasnt doing QE a week ago. And Ill bet you they will be doing it with FED money now too. |
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Post by Clinton SPX on Dec 2, 2010 12:09:14 GMT -5
printing our way to prosperity. what could possibly go wrong? Attachments:
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Post by sloop on Dec 2, 2010 12:19:51 GMT -5
What could go wrong? EVERYTHING!! Thats why you need to ride the gravy train and stop being such a bear. IM a bear too but Im not fighting the trend. Im making money for now.
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Post by jack on Dec 2, 2010 12:24:53 GMT -5
printing our way to prosperity. what could possibly go wrong?
Buy ink suppliers!!!LOL!!! |
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Post by Clinton SPX on Dec 2, 2010 12:25:50 GMT -5
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Post by brosin on Dec 2, 2010 12:27:05 GMT -5
LOL Clint, I bet you that you couldn't go 1 full day of posting nothing but bullishly biased news. And you will SAY that it's because you can't find any, but I will call shenanigans on that before you even say it  |
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Post by Clinton SPX on Dec 2, 2010 12:30:35 GMT -5
Im still not all that bullish because the the problems are still there. But the central banks will print a floor under everything that needs one to try and prevent a collapse. Lets see if they can keep this up into mid Jan. I think thats where the sell off can gets kicked to now.
Hey, bankers need their bonuses.
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Post by Clinton SPX on Dec 2, 2010 12:32:38 GMT -5
Bros I agree our economy is slowly getting better. But that should make our currency slowly gain strength not get weaker.
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Post by brosin on Dec 2, 2010 17:28:23 GMT -5
Even I am playing for a (small) drop tomorrow early on. So hopefully it's on the way! Gap down and then back green?
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Post by Clinton SPX on Dec 2, 2010 17:36:55 GMT -5
The Global bernanke put. LOL. thats what Im talking about
S&P Threatens To Cut Greece Further Into Junk Territory, Sees One-Two Notch Downgrade Chance
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 12/02/2010 17:09 -0500
S&P flexes its chicken wings, and nobody cares. After all it's not like a CCC- rated Greece will not have access to the global Bernanke put...
Overview
We are assessing the credit implications of the proposed European Stability Mechanism (ESM) that may govern EU sovereign bonds beginning in July 2013.
Specifically, we believe that assigning "preferred creditor" status to future official lending via the ESM could be detrimental to the ability of non-official holders of sovereign debt to be repaid.
Since the details of the plan are still emerging, we are placing our 'BB+' long-term sovereign credit rating on Greece on CreditWatch with negative implications.
The negative CreditWatch placement reflects our belief that Greece might be a future recipient of ESM funding.
Rating Action
On Dec. 2, 2010, Standard & Poor's Ratings Services placed its 'BB+' long-term sovereign credit rating on the Hellenic Republic (Greece) on CreditWatch with negative implications. Standard & Poor's has also placed its 'BB+' rating on the individual debt issues of the Greek government on CreditWatch with negative implications, reflecting both the action on the sovereign credit rating and the possibility of a downward revision of our '4' recovery rating on this debt.
At the same time, Standard & Poor's affirmed its 'B' short-term sovereign credit rating on Greece. The 'AAA' transfer and convertibility Assessment is unchanged.
Rationale
On Nov. 28, 2010, the European Council endorsed, in principle, the permanent institutional set-up for European Monetary Union (EMU) sovereign borrowing that is to follow the closure of the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF; AAA/Stable/--) in June 2013. The financial endowment of the ESM remains to be determined, but we understand that the ESM's structure will be based on that of the EFSF and that the ESM will provide financial support through emergency loans under policy conditionality. We have identified what we consider to be two key differences between the ESM and the EFSF, however:
A key difference between the current EFSF and the contemplated ESM lies in the apparent ability of the ESM's sovereign shareholders to trigger a debt restructuring on a case-by-case basis. We understand that this restructuring would potentially include private bondholders holding bonds issued by those EMU sovereigns declared insolvent (based on the application of as yet undisclosed criteria or procedures). We believe that the multilateral political prerogative to trigger private debt restructuring could be subject to political rather than objective financial considerations. We also believe that it is possible that European policymakers might, in the midst of a future crisis, make uncoordinated and even contradictory statements, potentially causing market distortions and jeopardizing funding access of individual sovereigns.
Notably, the public statement by the Eurogroup finance ministers envisions that any post-2013 lending by the ESM will benefit from "preferred creditor" status, effectively subordinating non-official holders of sovereign debt to the ESM. We believe that such subordination could hurt the prospects of timely and full repayment of non-ESM sovereign debt and would likely lower recoveries on such non-ESM sovereign debt, since the share of preferred creditors in the total debt stock will increase--all else being equal--in the transition from the EFSF regime to the ESM.
The ESM proposal furthermore outlines the inclusion of standardized collective action clauses (CACs) from June 2013 onward. Under the CACs, a qualified majority of bondholders will be able to agree to a legally binding change to payment conditions, without holdouts jeopardizing the process. Our assessment of past sovereign debt restructurings leads us to believe that the presence or absence of CACs does not, as a general matter, appreciably affect incentives to default.
We believe that more details about the ESM will emerge in the near future, but expect that, on balance, the ESM could have negative implications for the probability of nongovernmental holders of sovereign debt being paid in full and on time. Before coming to that conclusion, we will analyze the particulars of the ESM that will eventually be presented to national governments or parliaments for ratification.
In our view, the possible negative implications will not affect all EMU sovereigns equally, but will fall predominantly on those that may be more likely to request ESM support in the future. This group of governments could include the Republic of Ireland (A/Watch Neg/A-1), which is already subscribing to a multilateral financing package of €85 billion. It could also include the Republic of Portugal (A-/Watch Neg/A-2), which capital-market investors currently perceive as another potential candidate to access official funding. We consider that Greece might also be a candidate to receive additional financing through the ESM, above and beyond the financing it has already received from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and bilateral eurozone government bonds. This explains our placement of Greece on CreditWatch with negative implications, alongside Ireland and Portugal.
We recognize that the likelihood of Greece accessing ESM funding may have lessened somewhat by the simultaneous decision to extend the grace period on the IMF and EU financial package to 2015 and the repayment period to 2021, although at a slightly higher interest rate of 5.8% (versus 5.5% previously). Even so, we consider that Greece is a potential borrower from the ESM and that non-official holders of sovereign debt may therefore be affected.
CreditWatch
Standard & Poor's aims to resolve the CreditWatch placement within the next three months, after analyzing the final details of the planned ESM--which we believe will become available in the coming weeks--and assessing its implications for non-official holders of sovereign debt. We could affirm the ratings on Greece if our current expectations about the impact of subordination and undefined restructuring triggers are not borne out by events after we have analyzed the full ESM proposal. If, on the other hand, our views are borne out, we could lower our long-term rating on Greece, probably by one, but not likely more than two notches, depending on the details of the ESM. In light of those same details, within the Credit Watch period indicated we may also reconsider our '4' recovery rating on Greece's individual debt issues, possibly leading to a downward revision. (The current '4' recovery rating indicates an expectation of "average" [30%-50%] recovery for debtholders in the event of a debt restructuring or payment default.)
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Post by brosin on Dec 2, 2010 18:54:34 GMT -5
sorry V, that is meant to be the roman numeral "5" and not the letter V
(if you click the link in my signature, you'll see the first 4 "Where's the Drop"s)
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Post by kbk3ck on Dec 2, 2010 19:52:15 GMT -5
Im with V!! I just sold all my longs and went SHORT with TZA and FAZ.
Good luck ya bunch a Long BAG Holders.
(yall caint be buy'en that BULL Shi+?)
Just got some UPRO & SOXL & DRN & ERX. Forgot my girl FASsie. Now i feel bad for leaving her out.
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Post by cosmic on Dec 2, 2010 20:11:36 GMT -5
I hate to admit I'm still beary and this spike was part of the setup, only that it was to occur at a lower SPX - around 1150-1170. But I still believe the MP prediction.
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Post by Clinton SPX on Dec 2, 2010 20:13:27 GMT -5
Cant take off my bear goggles either
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