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Post by brosin on Sept 20, 2010 9:24:38 GMT -5
FOMC is tomorrow - if you haven't read the FOMC Meeting 9/21 thread (or the FOMC Meetings thread in the sticky area of my blog), I would suggest you do.
The December 2009 meeting was one of the only times where we saw the market continue going up after the meeting even after topping right at it. It is possible that will happen, but I think bulls should exercise caution today with establishing new long positions.
**We also did not see a new top in the March 2010 meeting. We saw new recent high at the meeting, but the market continued on afterwards. Notice sentiment in Jan/Feb is very similar to how it was in June/July. **
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Post by bullorbearnopigs on Sept 20, 2010 10:07:57 GMT -5
Tank at noon ??  |
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Post by demanuel2001 on Sept 20, 2010 10:14:30 GMT -5
I'm throwing caution to the wind - only 8 weeks to election - gonna keep going up
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Post by timber on Sept 20, 2010 10:15:42 GMT -5
maybe sell off on obama speach today
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Post by Clinton SPX on Sept 20, 2010 10:16:28 GMT -5
I'm throwing caution to the wind - only 8 weeks to election - gonna keep going up So much for all those Dems are bad for business commercials being made atm. |
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Post by timber on Sept 20, 2010 10:20:24 GMT -5
How can you tell if President Obama said the right things during Monday’s “Investing in America” town hall here at CNBC? Just look to the stocks of small business, the banks and retail, Cramer said.
At a time when few small business owners seem to have confidence in the president’s economic policies, Cramer will be looking for Obama to restore their faith. To do that, he needs tell the small business community just what he plans for them in terms of taxes.
“Any certainty along that issue is the win,” the Mad Money host said.
Office Depot [ODP 4.275 0.255 (+6.34%) ] and Staples [SPLS 19.71 0.22 (+1.13%) ] will be the tells as to whether or not the president succeeds in this endeavor. Staples specifically has said it has seen no small-business business, and its top-selling products are literally, Cramer said, “a referendum on whether the president can create small business jobs.”
“If we see Staples go up,” Cramer said, “I’m going to tell you it’s a successful speech.”
The banks will play their part as well. Though there is still a lot of negative press on the state of this sector (see: this New York Times story), Cramer said that negativity is already baked into the stocks. And in contrast to that, he pointed to recent statements by both JPMorgan Chase [JPM 40.72 0.66 (+1.65%) ] and Bank of America [BAC 13.57 0.17 (+1.27%) ] that business is improving, or in the very least has stabilized. If these stocks tick up on the president’s speech—in addition to Visa, which has been hated in Washington—it should be a sign that “the president’s no longer the enemy of capital,” Cramer said.
And in retail, any push higher by Coach [COH 41.74 0.19 (+0.46%) ], Tiffany [TIF 45.9773 0.9973 (+2.22%) ], Best Buy [BBY 38.335 1.1825 (+3.18%) ] or Macy’s [M 21.97 0.225 (+1.03%) ] is, Cramer said, “again, that’s the confidence coming back. That’s the president telling us, ‘Don’t worry about your taxes.’”
Cramer also said he’d be looking for word from President Obama on “card check” legislation, which would make it easier for workers at banks, retailers and other businesses to unionize. The initiative, while good for unions, is seen
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Post by Clinton SPX on Sept 20, 2010 10:38:41 GMT -5
everything looks so overbought
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Post by brosin on Sept 20, 2010 10:43:59 GMT -5
Maybe. I don't really see it that way, but I am very wary of a top coming today wherever that might be.
Could very well not be the top with sentiment as its been, but I'm not betting against the FOMC pivots. They are hitting with 80 or 90% accuracy.
FFR has as well though, so very tough to know which one to watch. Should FFR go down tomorrow, I'd think today is a top. We will see
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Post by Clinton SPX on Sept 20, 2010 10:46:50 GMT -5
I just mean indicator wise on charts. Rally could go on forever if thats what the robots want.
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Post by brosin on Sept 20, 2010 11:09:06 GMT -5
No I know - I just think things look much less overbought when you spread the time horizon out from 1 mo to 12 mo and stuff like that.
But I'm not sure - should price action deteriorate quickly today, I'd very much think a short term top is in. In any event, I don't see the correction going *too* deep either way. Maybe the 1090 that t4d has mentioned.
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Post by commodityypro on Sept 20, 2010 11:13:45 GMT -5
everything looks so overbought 9.5% move on the S&P in 20 days, this rally is just getting started! |
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Post by timber on Sept 20, 2010 11:16:51 GMT -5
lol arna did you in comm....yu lost all track of time and place
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Post by brosin on Sept 20, 2010 11:26:35 GMT -5
everything looks so overbought 9.5% move on the S&P in 20 days, this rally is just getting started! 20 days, but only 13 sessions, so .7% a day. [all #s taken from www.fastopia.proboards.com/index.cgi?action=display&board=brosin&thread=7366&page=1]Let's not be sarcastic here - since the April top, we have seen an 8 session -1.8%/day move, a 9 session move for -1.4%/day, a 3 session move of -1.8%/day, 5 session move for -.7%/day, and 12 session move for -.6%/day. A 13 session for .7%/day is good, but nothing abnormal. |
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Post by trading4dough on Sept 20, 2010 11:30:43 GMT -5
glad i unloaded the 20% shorts at the close fri
added 30% back
doubled oct putz
heck of a pop
not sustainable here
reversal coming real soon
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Post by brosin on Sept 20, 2010 11:53:09 GMT -5
You seem so certain. I am much less so. Seems too easy.
The bear brigade has been saying the reversal is coming for at least 5% now. 1080 is a long way behind us...
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Post by ask2lern on Sept 20, 2010 11:58:42 GMT -5
You seem so certain. I am much less so. Seems too easy. The bear brigade has been saying the reversal is coming for at least 5% now. 1080 is a long way behind us... Are you adding to your longs today?....................  |
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Post by brosin on Sept 20, 2010 12:01:49 GMT -5
In real money, I have been 100% in on FAS. So I cannot add to my longs.
But in the Big Cap Growth where I have 77% of my "net worth of the fantasy world," I am 80% invested and not selling today. Maybe tomorrow I will lighten up if I see price action confirmation of a top.
As a scalp trade, I put my remaining buying power (was 70% cash this am) into RIMM about 20 min ago at $45.11.
So I suppose my answer is tentatively "yes" but I have a short stop on that scalp ($44.80) just in case and am ready to sell down in the Big Cap Growth port to about 50% cash if the market reverses. I'm not going to try and get it in advance as my general bias is still very bullish.
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Post by brosin on Sept 20, 2010 12:05:25 GMT -5
**EDIT to original post**
We also did not see a new top in the March 2010 meeting. We saw new recent high at the meeting, but the market continued on afterwards. Notice sentiment in Jan/Feb is very similar to how it was in June/July.
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Post by brosin on Sept 20, 2010 18:46:16 GMT -5
I am going to laugh so hard if today ended up being the top yet again. It doesn't have a bad ring to it... For anyone who has maybe looked at this a little less closely than they should... The last 4 (??) meetings have seen a top within 1 day of it. April 27-28 meeting: top was the 26th (1221) June 22-23 meeting: top was the 21st (1131) August 10 meeting: top was the 9th (1129) Sept 21 meeting: top was the 20th?? (1145) (??)These numbers do not lie  Either way, we did hit a new high at the meeting again, so we are back on track in the main FOMC meeting thread: www.fastopia.proboards.com/index.cgi?action=gotopost&board=brosin&thread=7366&post=103023 |
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Post by brosin on Nov 2, 2010 8:42:34 GMT -5
Bump for relavancy - old post from the last meeting but timing very similar. There was a partial top (dropped 3-4%) to be found from the high on 9/21.
I wonder if this time it will be a blowoff move (is this one now? or maybe an even bigger one tomorrow) before a 4-5% correction down to around 1160ish. I had originally been saying I thought 1200-1150 spx, but it might start from even higher judging by yesterday and today.
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Post by brosin on Nov 2, 2010 13:17:34 GMT -5
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