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Post by brosin on Sept 3, 2010 8:10:52 GMT -5
I'd bump the thread from yesterday, but it was kind of a train wreck  Those in cash, and the bears that are now under simmering heat would *really* like to know! Because they really need that dip. No dips yet, now they are praying for a gap and crap. Could we just close up 3% again? ;D |
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Post by brosin on Sept 3, 2010 9:12:24 GMT -5
They are hoping this is the drop!
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Post by cosmic on Sept 3, 2010 9:41:14 GMT -5
Again, I think you're trying to emphasize something that might not exist.
This notion of buying, every day every minute the market is open.
If you have packed your bags as full of the roulette risk as you want, you're not looking for new buy points to add to the risk. You're looking instead for exits.
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Post by brosin on Sept 3, 2010 9:45:18 GMT -5
Ok fair enough - and you are trying to de-emphasize something that might.
Right?
Some may not view the market as you do in that everyone is trying to exit. Some may view the market as one where a majority is more skeptical than they should, and consequently more underweight than they should be. Sentiment is a funny thing - it spirals up just as much as it spirals down.
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Post by brosin on Sept 3, 2010 9:50:16 GMT -5
For the record, I never once implied or tried to imply that there is buying every minute the market is open.
I am simply trying to say that the sentiment had reached a point where I believe a large majority of people are trapped either on the wrong side or in cash trying to decide what dip to buy, and that that will keep us from dipping too much. So far, it doesn't appear to be that far fetched.
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Post by cosmic on Sept 3, 2010 9:51:21 GMT -5
You've seen my sentiment spiral up? LOL? REALLY? Ever? I mean with real "We're gonna kill the bearz!" exuberance. I'm trying to think of the last time this market excited me, and it might have been last fall.
I'm de-emphasizing risk.
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Post by brosin on Sept 3, 2010 9:57:02 GMT -5
I'm not saying *your* sentiment, I said sentiment. You are not the market. I am not the market. The market is the market.
Let's be honest here - it would take a hell of a lot to get you excited about the market. And I don't mean that in a bad way at all, so please don't take it as such. I'm just saying that you overall are fairly balanced and wouldn't get too exuberant in one direction or the other. And if there was a direction you'd be more likely to be exhuberant about, I hope we'd agree that it would be down.
At the end of the day, I can confidently say that I am just as likely to be right or wrong as you are. And you don't seem to be portraying that.
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Post by cosmic on Sept 3, 2010 10:08:30 GMT -5
I don't think I'd be more exuberant about a down market. As a matter of record I rarely trade short anymore and there have been fantastic profits in that direction since April, so 4 months where shorting was the likely more profitable strategy.
We really have a 50/50 chance, and the more it moves in any direction, the more the chances increase for the other direction - over time.
And on that concept, I will continue to remove profit all the way up. But I am not much of a buyer. We may get to 1200, and I may have nothing in my bag. That'll be fine with me.
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yjfang
Broker/Dealer
Posts: 525
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Post by yjfang on Sept 3, 2010 10:14:50 GMT -5
This is an awesome intellectual exchange...like between a master and his genius disciple.
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Post by clemsontygr on Sept 3, 2010 10:15:54 GMT -5
Sounds like you have soured on market participation Cosmo...... ? ?
I've gone thru the same feelings lately...
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Post by cosmic on Sept 3, 2010 10:20:49 GMT -5
My problem is I'm always sour on the market. I mean how lucky did I get selling BAC at 60 or so in August 2007?
65 for BAC. 13 now.
That can make anyone sour.
You can only increase your leverage power by selling at a profit and re-deploying it later and lower.
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Post by clemsontygr on Sept 3, 2010 10:27:03 GMT -5
Yea, I have some friends that had SUBSTANTIAL amounts of money in BAC at those levels ....
I feel their pain ....
(Modified for spelling x 2)
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Post by cosmic on Sept 3, 2010 10:36:44 GMT -5
Oh dear. That sucks Clemson.
In my case, I had just recently become executor, and had no idea the holding even existed. If you wonder why I still deal with a stock broker, well it's my dad's ex-broker. He called me a few days later and said "You know I recommend we sell those bank holdings especially BAC in your father's portfolio. There's something going on with the banks." <-- those were his exact words. And while he's usually wrong, this time he was way right.
I think this also facilitates a shift in personal strategy.
2009 was massive equity inflation off a panic bottom. Pretty much everything went up, including all the crap stocks too. Everybody was buying everything. And it got to the 'tipping point' and deflated.
Well if you've ever looked at a pastry that's risen and fallen in the oven, the whole thing doesn't collapse - the areas that were built the best and strongest still stand.
We are seeing that straining process. Whoever is saying Price Discovery is not operating in this market needs to look at the net effect to stocks since their post-crash peaks. Yes, it is working.
Basket holding during these times is particularly intense just as it is for ETF's. The weakness of both is unless the macro picture is changing such that *everything* is on sale, the ETF/basket trade becomes dis-advantageous.
I am not the best stock picker, but that's where it's going to be at until the next big macro move. FAS is telling you that. That is where I will be focusing more strength, carefully over time.
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Post by clemsontygr on Sept 3, 2010 10:54:34 GMT -5
I'm with DErothchild : (not that these are his views, but are similar) This whole F'n thing is going to collapse one day in the not too distant future. (The US/World financial system.) I am very bearish on the world as a whole... We have some massive fluctuations coming in the years ahead. Massive. and it's not going to be pretty for anyone.... I don't think I'm stating anything new, or that you haven't heard a 100 times. It's just my strong beliefs. Thats why I recommend precious metals .... (And they can confiscate all of my PM's, as soon as i'm outta #82) www.webelements.com/ MF'ers ... LOL So, at the end of the day, does it really matter... not really. I have my friends and family. And thats whats important to me. TPTB can KMA. But I digress..... |
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Post by novice08 on Sept 3, 2010 10:57:21 GMT -5
Yea, I have some friends that had SUBSTANTIAL amounts of money in BAC at those levels .... I feel their pain .... I live in Charlotte and know lots of folks who lost big bucks (and I do mean big) on bac and wachovia). This city has taken a huge hit economically b/c the banks were the prime movers & shakers here. (Modified for spelling x 2) |
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Post by clemsontygr on Sept 3, 2010 11:05:04 GMT -5
Yea, I have some friends that had SUBSTANTIAL amounts of money in BAC at those levels .... I feel their pain .... I live in Charlotte and know lots of folks who lost big bucks (and I do mean big) on bac and wachovia). This city has taken a huge hit economically b/c the banks were the prime movers & shakers here. (Modified for spelling x 2) I live in Fort Mill, novice08, fyi, howdy neighbor |
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Post by novice08 on Sept 3, 2010 11:11:19 GMT -5
Hey, clemson. I've wanted to speak to you, but seeing as I'm a GEORGIA fan, hesistated. At least you're not a Gamecock! This is my favorite time of yr., who're y'all playin' tomorrow? At home? GL and thanks for speaking up.
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Post by clemsontygr on Sept 3, 2010 11:22:12 GMT -5
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Post by trading4dough on Sept 3, 2010 11:35:06 GMT -5
Good thread
Here is the thing
There are the darlings
the c.a.n.d.i.e.s.
bidu
lvs
just to name a few
and these have been running
other then that if you look from may everything else has been crushed
i think we most likely roll over later today continuing into tuesday
moving into opex i dont know cause its a weekly/monthly/quarterly
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Post by trading4dough on Sept 3, 2010 11:48:25 GMT -5
what im thinking is we move down somewhere to 1060-1070 then move to test the 1150 area
1100 breaking takes the die wave off for the moment i think
i picked up some weekly spy putz 110/111 for fun here
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Post by clemsontygr on Sept 3, 2010 11:58:01 GMT -5
what im thinking is we move down somewhere to 1060-1070 then move to test the 1150 area 1100 breaking takes the die wave off for the moment i think i picked up some weekly spy putz 110/111 for fun here We're thinking alot alike here TD ... |
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Post by exabi on Sept 3, 2010 12:15:20 GMT -5
Kinda sorta a bull flag pennant on the daily, looks like we bumped the overhead resistance at 1105, but could not break thru today.  |
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Post by Clinton SPX on Sept 3, 2010 12:20:15 GMT -5
two points does not a trend line make.
Use those lines with a huge grain of salt.
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Post by Clinton SPX on Sept 3, 2010 12:41:16 GMT -5
Yellow res has the 200ma working with it. But I got a feeling we hit the light blue Attachments:
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Post by trading4dough on Sept 3, 2010 12:45:36 GMT -5
add some more spy 111s for the weekly
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Post by brosin on Sept 3, 2010 13:05:20 GMT -5
(Posting from phone, had to run a few errands back to the suburbs for a bit). Sorry cos exhuberant was the wrong word - I meant to imply you would be more certain that we were headed down than up at any given time. Again, not bad - I think you just have more distrust in markets than most. And I actually think that's the way to be. I just think its crowded in that mindset, which is rare in normal time or close to any sort of big drop.
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Post by trading4dough on Sept 3, 2010 13:10:38 GMT -5
add some more spy 111s for the weekly going to load the 111 putz right to spy 111 come on give us that final momo shot |
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Post by puurfectten on Sept 3, 2010 14:30:16 GMT -5
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Post by brosin on Sept 3, 2010 15:12:10 GMT -5
I'd bump the thread from yesterday, but it was kind of a train wreck Those in cash, and the bears that are now under simmering heat would *really* like to know! Because they really need that dip. No dips yet, now they are praying for a gap and crap. Could we just close up 3% again? ;D Only 1.3% today bulls. Pretty weak. Even with all the sellers today and yesterday, you need to do better than that. |
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Post by brosin on Sept 3, 2010 15:21:17 GMT -5
I'm with DErothchild : (not that these are his views, but are similar) This whole F'n thing is going to collapse one day in the not too distant future. (The US/World financial system.) I am very bearish on the world as a whole... We have some massive fluctuations coming in the years ahead. Massive. and it's not going to be pretty for anyone.... I don't think I'm stating anything new, or that you haven't heard a 100 times. It's just my strong beliefs. Thats why I recommend precious metals .... (And they can confiscate all of my PM's, as soon as i'm outta #82) www.webelements.com/ MF'ers ... LOL So, at the end of the day, does it really matter... not really. I have my friends and family. And thats whats important to me. TPTB can KMA. But I digress..... I agree Clem, although what do you interpret as Not Too Distant Future? A few months, years? I have 2016 circled on my calendars (only the ones that go past Dec 2012 lol). |
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Those in cash, and the bears that are now under simmering heat would *really* like to know!
