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Post by kingdisco on Feb 16, 2010 10:21:13 GMT -5
Post your favorite
-Scans
-Set-ups (...... DOJI This!)
-Indicators (Settings, crossovers, divergence, etc.)
-Pure Gambling Strategies (LOL)
I know its hard to share those hard earned secrets... but what goes around comes around. .... er.... um....
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Post by timber on Feb 16, 2010 11:57:17 GMT -5
short faz buy china
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Post by ukarlewitz on Feb 16, 2010 12:07:10 GMT -5
OK, I'll start as this is a good topic.
1. I have a long (too long) list of securities I follow. 30-40. I add when someone mentions a new one and a quick look indicates some potential. I'll also add if I see a spike in short interest. I can post this list if anyone is interested.
2. I look at daily pivots and 5, 20, 50 and 200dmas and draw lines on my chart (freestockcharts.com).
3. I put price trigger alerts in my Fidelity system. When a security falls close to my R or S I'll consider a buy or sell. The Fidelity alerts pop up on my trading monitor. Very handy.
4. For a longer term trade (portfolio) I have a back testing system in place via a Fidelity system. I have back tested everything on my watch list and have them classified based on which indicator gives the best signal. I check these at the end of each day. It gives me a heads up buy/sell and as important it tells me a lot about the health of the market. Right now, for example, almost everything is a sell.
5. I read a few sites that I trust each day after the market closes for an external perspective on the market. I like Carl Futia but rarely trade with him. I like Tony Caldaro, Stocata, Cobra, Bill Gross, Barry Ritholtz, Calculated Risk and the guys at itms. A few others. I read Barron's over the weekend but I'm increasingly of the opinion that it is a waste of time.
6. The only indicators I use on my back test are moving average cross overs (20 and 50 dma; or 13-34ema) or +/- an 80dma. Simple, but it has the highest hit rate.
7. On an intraday basis, I rely on my pivots and mas as well as the nyse tick and breadth. I keep an eye on the DX and Vix as well. That's pretty much it.
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Post by triggerhappy on Feb 16, 2010 20:10:06 GMT -5
Anybody use TD Ameritrade? It sure would be nice to come up with buy/sell trade equations for Strategy Desk. I know, nothing is perfect. But, something that got it down to 75% would be good and then tune it by "human touch" from there. Anyone spent time with this?
Trade trigger equations using RSI, MACD and Stoch for VIX, DX, SPY, XLF, and others for multiple time frames would be key. Anybody got the makings of a magic bullet?
:-)
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Post by cosmic on Feb 16, 2010 20:14:30 GMT -5
Anybody use TD Ameritrade? It sure would be nice to come up with buy/sell trade equations for Strategy Desk. I know, nothing is perfect. But, something that got it down to 75% would be good and then tune it by "human touch" from there. Anyone spent time with this? Trade trigger equations using RSI, MACD and Stoch for VIX, DX, SPY, XLF, and others for multiple time frames would be key. Anybody got the makings of a magic bullet? :-) I have a few that I did. The basic gist was to look at stochastic. When the slow stoch crossed the low threshold (I think 20 - been a while) and got to 30 with the signal line crossing 20, then it would issue a buy. This was based on FAS. It backtested very well. Reverse for the sell side at 80. I added another layer check - which was to check either RIFIN or XLF for the same signal. When I got double or triple confirms, the software never lost. It was often a little early on the buy, so FAS would generally dip first, and was late on the sell. That's why I don't always use it. But left to itself in the background with enough to buy 100 shares on and off, it works like an ATM. |
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Post by benvestor on Feb 17, 2010 4:57:45 GMT -5
Speaking of gambling
Just buy the casino stocks on their dips, then sell on their pops. It has been so retardedly simple in the last what like 6 months.. usually 6-10% returns in under 2 weeks
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Post by jack on Feb 18, 2010 10:55:58 GMT -5
From clint on the YMB re: OBV
"I like to watch the 1 min and if price is sideways with a downward slope on the OBV market usually sells off. Been highly accurate last 6 weeks."
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Post by kbk3ck on Feb 21, 2010 19:22:50 GMT -5
I just watch it and when I see the recent patern or chanel then I watch for the dip to what I feel is a "WOW!!! THATS A LOW PRICE!!!!" and I jump in with both feet and hang on.
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Post by kingdisco on Feb 24, 2010 19:38:25 GMT -5
Ukarls words not mine belowhere's my tick screen. In the top panel, the red/green bars is the 3m tick. The Aqua line on top of it is the Spy. The yellow line is the tick ma. Ignore the green line. The lowest panel in Trin. Ignore the middle panel. You can see that tick has had nearly 4 +1200 ticks today and nearly 3 -800 ticks. Overall, very bullish. The morning dump with a -800 tick was a buy and you can see the aqua line (spy) moved higher to the near hod as a result. The 4th +1200 tick exhausted buying and the market then sold off. That selling more or less ceased when the tick double hit -800. The ma (yellow) is now near the zero line after getting into the 300s during the day. 
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Post by jack on Feb 25, 2010 22:23:22 GMT -5
Torrie's Strategy:
"If you compare the Hourly & Daily charts of the security you should see SMA and EMA correlations. In essence, I attempt to normalize the hourly charts with daily moving averages.
Specifically, to your question, the 4 day EMA and 9 Day EMA I use on momentum stocks as signals lines.
Price closing below 4 day EMA is a most conservative sell signal
Price closing below 9 day EMA is a less conservative sell signal
4 day EMA closing below 9 day EMA is an even less conservative sell signal...
You can use this methodology on high momentum e.g. parabolic issues as an objective system either doing all or partial position adjustments premised upon price action e.g. sell one-third at each sell point OR even the inverse adding at each point..."
Thanks T!
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Post by triggerhappy on Mar 1, 2010 17:04:50 GMT -5
Anybody using MACD (65, 90, 12)? Seems to keep you in a trade a bit longer. Just got to figure out when to get out :-)
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c-money
Margin Account Trader
Posts: 31
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Post by c-money on Mar 4, 2010 0:20:42 GMT -5
I like to watch the price moving UP through the 11 day MA...and the 14 day CCI...seems simple and consistent, for position trading.
Does anyone trade the 3-day RSI model? Has to do with the 3-day RSI overlayed on the SPX and the VIX...any thoughts on it?
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Post by torrentio1 on Mar 5, 2010 21:41:30 GMT -5
I look at many things that others look at -sometimes I just look at them differently... ;D
I look at market internals -I use market breadth studies as an indicator of trend strength and potential trend change...
In the following charts I look at advancing versus declining issues in a different way -similar to an OBV (On Balance Volume) study.
I call this one OBAD (On Balance Advance-Decline)
I find it useful -maybe you will too.
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Post by torrentio1 on Mar 6, 2010 19:40:34 GMT -5
Here is VIX --another that I look at a bit differently...
Anyone into Differential Calculus will appreciate this one which focuses on slope.
In the following chart I use primarily the bottom indicator -slope, which I smooth with two short term moving averages.
The chart provides both a signal line and a smoothed slope over time overview on VIX -I use it to discern potential trend change...
I find it useful -maybe you will too.
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Post by benvestor on Mar 7, 2010 14:01:46 GMT -5
In the short term i believe news is somewhat indicative of price change as well. One cannot ignore the fundamentals of a company. Not for too long anyhow
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Post by DaveContrarian on Mar 9, 2010 12:47:49 GMT -5
Here are a pair of don'ts.
Do not average down a short ETF when the OVERALL, underlying market trend is bullish (e.g., in a bull market, don't average down FAZ).
Do not average down a long position when the overall, underlying market trend is bearish.
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In other words, it is much easier trading in the direction of overall market, than it is to trade counter-trend.
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Post by jack on Jul 8, 2010 20:18:13 GMT -5
NEVER NEVER NEVER enter a long trade in a gap up.
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Post by jack on Jul 9, 2010 16:41:47 GMT -5
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Post by puurfectten on Aug 9, 2010 17:51:41 GMT -5
jack..that's a good one..don't buy long into a gap up in a downtrend..and don't go short into a gap down in an uptrend..  ...and...gaps probably 9 times out of 10 try to close....gap-n-go is rare.... |
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Post by puurfectten on Aug 9, 2010 17:54:16 GMT -5
ohhh..and gap-n-go usually happens when we cant break through a point of support/resistance and they leapfrog it...  |
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Post by jack on Mar 30, 2011 15:58:03 GMT -5
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...and...gaps probably 9 times out of 10 try to close....gap-n-go is rare.... 