Post by brosin on Oct 26, 2010 22:14:08 GMT -5
Quite interesting - I projected the coming March lows pretty closely without doing much other than guessing... (mkt closed at spx 836 this day and the Nov low was spx 741)
In an email to my Uncle:
"I sold GG and SLW today near the daily highs, a couple 25% gains in a week. Strengthened some short positions on BAC. I don't think there's any way we don't at least test the November lows. Most major markets abroad broke the lows, as did major currency pairs. If we close below 8000 on the Dow, the couple days following that are the ones to look out for. 7441 and 740 on Dow and S&P... Everything is fear and chart driven. When we test, we learn what people want to do. There is no way to know what happens until it happens. If people are worried at 7500, we'll go lower. If they feel opportunistic at 7500, we'll bounce. My bet is on the former - this is a bear market. The latest rally was exactly the same as others albeit was a little longer. I'm going to nibble at 7500, and if we touch down an additional 10%, I'd nibble quite a bit more. "
img225.imageshack.us/img225/2954/12609.png
In an email to my Uncle:
"I sold GG and SLW today near the daily highs, a couple 25% gains in a week. Strengthened some short positions on BAC. I don't think there's any way we don't at least test the November lows. Most major markets abroad broke the lows, as did major currency pairs. If we close below 8000 on the Dow, the couple days following that are the ones to look out for. 7441 and 740 on Dow and S&P... Everything is fear and chart driven. When we test, we learn what people want to do. There is no way to know what happens until it happens. If people are worried at 7500, we'll go lower. If they feel opportunistic at 7500, we'll bounce. My bet is on the former - this is a bear market. The latest rally was exactly the same as others albeit was a little longer. I'm going to nibble at 7500, and if we touch down an additional 10%, I'd nibble quite a bit more. "
img225.imageshack.us/img225/2954/12609.png