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Post by brosin on Feb 24, 2011 20:51:49 GMT -5
 I think you guys know me well enough to know I would not say what I am about to say unless I had a very good reason. With that being said, please sell. Or at the very least, please be more cautious than you would have been otherwise and possibly be less invested than you would otherwise be. OR AT THE VERY VERY LEAST, please weigh in with counterarguments and/or suggestions for why I should rethink my certainty here. I'm sure mostly everyone has seen my Excess Reserves thread / posts even if it does make your eyes glaze over. I hold its longer term trends in the regard I hold the FFR in the sense that it is a very strong look at what the lending markets are doing. And I tell you what, they are freezing up. Are you as surprised to hear that collectively, the banks were taking on less risk as of yesterday 2/23/11 than at any point -- not only since 2008 when excess reserves first moved from nothing to $1.2Trillion -- in history as I am to have just seen it? There is no sugar coating my reaction when I saw the number today: "Hooolly F***!" I wish I were making that up..  In my eyes, this would be equivalent to the FFR showing a true reading of .13 or 12% tomorrow or something... I am a bit worried for us all. I'm sorry to say that and definitely have the utmost respect for everyone here to make their own decision. Ben's POMO might work for months still... but this cannot end well. I am beginning to wonder about my longer term outlook of multiple years out, which I had always assumed would be (much) higher than here. If anyone has some (bullish) words of encouragement, now would be the time...
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Post by dzech00 on Feb 24, 2011 21:04:55 GMT -5
I see how you might be bearish about this Bros, but the only silver lining I can think of is that banks are being more responsible with the money and not having as high of a loan/deposit ratio (sorry don't know the proper terms). Whether they think a shit storm is coming, or they finally have some brains and are managing money responsibly on their own, or they are being forced to be more responsible...who knows...
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Post by jack on Feb 24, 2011 21:12:43 GMT -5
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Post by benvestor on Feb 24, 2011 21:14:38 GMT -5
basil 3 capital rules require more reserves
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Post by brosin on Feb 24, 2011 21:20:32 GMT -5
I see how you might be bearish about this Bros, but the only silver lining I can think of is that banks are being more responsible with the money and not having as high of a loan/deposit ratio (sorry don't know the proper terms). Whether they think a shit storm is coming, or they finally have some brains and are managing money responsibly on their own, or they are being forced to be more responsible...who knows... is banking supposed to be responsible though? as far as i can tell, the system is based on the notion of becoming too big to fail so that when you fail everyone comes down with you and the taxpayers make the bankers whole and give them the capacity to get bigger than they were before  |
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Post by brosin on Feb 24, 2011 21:22:39 GMT -5
basil 3 capital rules require more reserves thanks ben, definitely a +1 as that could definitely be one reason so in that sense, when the required reserve ratio changes, it'll make the excess reserves turn to RRs and then the excess reserve number will "drop" only thing that would be worrisome about that is i think raising reserve ratios has the same effect as raising rates would in that it contracts the money supply - so stocks wouldn't like that then either way |
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Post by dzech00 on Feb 24, 2011 21:38:12 GMT -5
is banking supposed to be responsible though? as far as i can tell, the system is based on the notion of becoming too big to fail so that when you fail everyone comes down with you and the taxpayers make the bankers whole and give them the capacity to get bigger than they were before Hell yes they should be responsible! If not, then you get what we had in 2007-2009. I'm reading all about how the banking cartel works in "The Creature From Jekyll Island." Tiny reserve ratios/too big to fail/FDIC. All things that result in the taxpayer taking it on the chin and getting taxed through massive inflation.  |
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Post by theMIST on Feb 24, 2011 21:55:51 GMT -5
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Post by ccash04 on Feb 24, 2011 22:00:35 GMT -5
How can you use ER when the money base is already expanding rapidly (if you did then hyperinflation would ensue).  |
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Post by ppppp3571113 on Feb 24, 2011 22:01:39 GMT -5
I agree with Brosin. That said, say hello to NGC 1999:  NGC1999 is South of the large star-forming region known as the Orion Nebula. Also at the edge of the Orion molecular cloud complex some 1,500 light-years distant, NGC 1999's illumination is provided by the embedded variable star V380 Orionis. The nebula is marked with a dark sideways T-shape near center in this broad cosmic vista that spans over 10 light-years. The dark shape was once assumed to be an obscuring dust cloud seen in silhouette against the bright reflection nebula. But recent infrared images indicate the shape is likely a hole blown through the nebula itself by energetic young stars. In fact, this region abounds with energetic young stars producing jets and outflows that create luminous shock waves HH1 and HH2 just below ngc1999 The stellar jets and outflows push through the surrounding material at speeds of hundreds of kilometers per second. Once again, this remarkable picture brought to you by the Hubble Space Telescope. Made in USA. |
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Post by brosin on Feb 24, 2011 22:07:46 GMT -5
How can you use ER when the money base is already expanding rapidly (if you did then hyperinflation would ensue). Not sure I understand the question - are you meaning that so much new money is being created that some is bound to be held as reserves? |
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Post by ccash04 on Feb 24, 2011 22:14:13 GMT -5
How can you use ER when the money base is already expanding rapidly (if you did then hyperinflation would ensue). Not sure I understand the question - are you meaning that so much new money is being created that some is bound to be held as reserves? Correct if you are expanding M2 at a rapid pace it goes to reason that it will show up in ER, esp. if you are funding the expansion of m2 thru bond purchases from primary dealers. |
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Post by ccash04 on Feb 24, 2011 22:15:30 GMT -5
On a different tangent I cleaned my local coin shop out of their last silver eagles.. all they could sell me cuz all they had left was 11... buying more slw and slv tomorrow  |
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Post by tarzan on Feb 24, 2011 22:40:24 GMT -5
Well brosin, your graph coincides, to a degree, with the ramp in commodities we've seen and ccash's reasoning makes sense.
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Post by demanuel2001 on Feb 24, 2011 22:58:58 GMT -5
Is this sell with Monopoly money or real money?
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Post by novice08 on Feb 24, 2011 23:12:28 GMT -5
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Post by brosin on Feb 24, 2011 23:42:13 GMT -5
Is this sell with Monopoly money or real money? I'm really not kidding, but this was still funny  |
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Post by jack on Feb 24, 2011 23:47:28 GMT -5
I thought Clemson's tinfoil "Bradley 2011" chart only showed a slight dip then its off to the races w/ super-inflation in everything including stocks Nov??? |
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Post by brosin on Feb 24, 2011 23:49:33 GMT -5
How can you use ER when the money base is already expanding rapidly (if you did then hyperinflation would ensue). Not sure I understand the question - are you meaning that so much new money is being created that some is bound to be held as reserves? But these are still excess reserves - why aren't they taking free profits from the churn |
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Post by timber on Feb 24, 2011 23:59:22 GMT -5
until i see a real top in the equity markets i remain a cautious bull......im still in the big bull take out all time highs and then some camp  |
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Post by novice08 on Feb 25, 2011 9:54:41 GMT -5
I thought Clemson's tinfoil "Bradley 2011" chart only showed a slight dip then its off to the races w/ super-inflation in everything including stocks Nov??? He did, but I also thought he said "major event" within 60 days--not sure what that event would be  |
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Post by theMIST on Feb 25, 2011 9:55:06 GMT -5
Talking about Basel III on CNBC right now
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Post by jack on Feb 25, 2011 9:57:46 GMT -5
I thought Clemson's tinfoil "Bradley 2011" chart only showed a slight dip then its off to the races w/ super-inflation in everything including stocks Nov??? He did, but I also thought he said "major event" within 60 days--not sure what that event would be The prodigal daughter here appears to have moved out of the house (again). THAT's good enough for me as the "major event"! |
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Post by brosin on Feb 25, 2011 10:04:16 GMT -5
Talking about Basel III on CNBC right now Nice thanks for the heads up Mist - could you post what they have to say about it (or shoot me a PM)? |
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Post by brosin on Feb 25, 2011 10:14:58 GMT -5
No one will be selling into this.
I should just give up again
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Post by theMIST on Feb 25, 2011 10:17:24 GMT -5
Talked about the higher capital requirements for banks under Basel III and how things like free checking might be a thing of the past. yada...yada
Nothing earth shattering. I'll keep an eye on CNBC.com to see if they post the entire dialogue to their website.
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Post by jack on Feb 25, 2011 10:18:39 GMT -5
No one will be selling into this. I should just give up again Please don't do that - you'll spoil the rally. |
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Post by deadmoney95 on Feb 25, 2011 10:20:44 GMT -5
Bros, doesn't the second biggest spike on your chart come in Feb. 10, right before a month and a half of straight up action in the major indexes? |
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Post by theMIST on Feb 25, 2011 10:26:16 GMT -5
Brosin, this post reminds me of a song by MY FAVORITE BAND RUSH! Message for the bulls (echoing the words of Robert Frost): Now's the time to turn the tide Now's the time to fight Let us not go gently To the endless winter night Now's the time to make the time While hope is still in sight Let us not go gently To the endless winter night RED TIDE Words by Neil Peart, Music by Geddy Lee and Alex Lifeson nature has some new plague to run in our streets history some new wrinkle we are doomed to repeat fugitives at the bedroom door lovers pause to find an open store rain is burning on the forest floor and the red tide kisses the shore THIS IS NOT A FALSE ALARM
THIS IS NOT A TEST
stay out of the sun it only burns my skin sky full of poison and the atmosphere's too thin bless the sun, the rain no more river running like an open sore black wind falling to the ocean floor and the red tide washes ashore THIS IS NOT A FALSE ALARM
THIS IS NOT A TESTNowhere we can fly away Nowhere we can rest The party is disrupted by An uninvited guest deadline approaches for the weary land it used to be something but we let it run down in our hands too late for debate, too bad to ignore quiet rebellion leads to open war bring a sea-change to the factory floor as the red tide covers the shore Now's the time to turn the tide Now's the time to fight Let us not go gently To the endless winter night Now's the time to make the time While hope is still in sight Let us not go gently To the endless winter night LOL -- I couldn't resist |
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Post by novice08 on Feb 25, 2011 10:32:16 GMT -5
LOL, jack, I'm not sure that one was on clemson's list of possibilities, but it works for me.
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