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Post by brosin on Feb 27, 2011 19:43:45 GMT -5
Do you have any counter arguments? I'd like to be bullish if that is the right move... I gave you my counterarguments - you didn't find them persuasive. Beyond that - short of the Fed reversing course I cannot see anything happening on the money and reserves front that is an immediate problem. Referring to reserves, why is the biggest spike since Oct, Nov, and Dec of 2008 (when markets were plummeting) not concerning? Sorry if you are implying something I'm not getting - really just trying to see why this is 'nothing to see here'
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Post by kbk3ck on Feb 27, 2011 19:46:51 GMT -5
Sorry, I was thinking we were talking oil. I was just say'en. LOL
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Post by demanuel2001 on Feb 27, 2011 19:50:33 GMT -5
Well, the fact that banks have been sitting on reserves and relending to the Treasury isnt exactly new - they've been doing something like that for 2 years. All I see around me is activity picking up. If anything I've found loans ridiculously easy to get. That may be a problem. But with all the pickup - the jobs will come. Perhaps Obama should quit extending jobless benefits - I am pretty arn sure from direct observation that a lot of people have disappeared into the gray economy.
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Post by theMIST on Feb 27, 2011 19:51:44 GMT -5
Couldn't this just be a product of Basel III or the Dodd-Frank Act? Aren't member countries of G-20 supposed to implement Basel III no later than January 2013 and are following an implementation schedule?
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Post by kbk3ck on Feb 27, 2011 20:00:42 GMT -5
Who gives a shit yall? Really. This is all scripted. The banks will hold the reserves they are told to by Big Ben the Bernanke and make loans in the fashion told to. They will receive printed money in the ammount told to receive and buy what they are told to buy with it. Whats this bull shit all about. Somebody please tell me. Damn!!! This Private Ryan is kicking my ass!!! Said I wouldnt tear up at the very end. But I did. Again!!
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Post by kbk3ck on Feb 27, 2011 20:04:10 GMT -5
Patriot coming on now. FUDGE!!!!!
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Post by jack on Feb 27, 2011 20:07:12 GMT -5
Who gives a shit yall? Really. This is all scripted. The banks will hold the reserves they are told to by Big Ben the Bernanke and make loans in the fashion told to. They will receive printed money in the ammount told to receive and buy what they are told to buy with it. Whats this bull shit all about. Somebody please tell me. Damn!!! This Private Ryan is kicking my ass!!! Said I wouldnt tear up at the very end. But I did. Again!! Sheila Bair (not BB) but that's all I got sorry.
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Post by kbk3ck on Feb 27, 2011 20:15:54 GMT -5
Sorry for the rant. Sorry bout that!!!!
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Post by jack on Feb 27, 2011 20:21:15 GMT -5
Sorry for the rant. Sorry bout that!!!! Your rant quota for the month has been met - Congrats! Anything more between now and tuesday is pure gravey. ;D
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Post by dino on Feb 27, 2011 20:40:30 GMT -5
I don't understand all the intrical details of the banking sector, but here's my simple take...
Financially responsible people spend their money wisely and when they feel comfortable to do so. For example: If a guy is the main source of income for his family and the company he's working for has had a few rounds of layoffs over the course of 18 months, he's probably not going to go out and buy a new car. He's probably going to save some cash and spend very wisely for a while just in case he gets let go. If he survives the layoffs, and the company seems to have made the turn upwards, AND HE FEELS COMFORTABLE, that's when he'll buy that new car.
Are banks any different?
My understanding is that the FFR has been low meaning there's not a big demand for lending between banks, and now bank reserves are very high. That tells me THEY'RE NOT COMFORTABLE. Why? If the economny has made the turn, why would they be building their reserves (saving cash)? They've been getting money at or near 0% interest for some time now - why be so conservative with that money?
So if the rule of thumb for most people is that you spend when you're comfortable and you save when your fearful, then is it safe to say that banks lend and keep low reserves when they're comfortable and they freeze lending and build reserves when they're fearful?
If that's the case, then what are they fearful about?
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Post by theMIST on Feb 27, 2011 23:23:11 GMT -5
If the increase in excess reserves is not related to Basel III or Dodd-Frank, then I can see Brosin's concern. Increase in excess reserves obviously is counterproductive to recovery.
Is the interest rate paid on excess reserves greater than the FFR?
I believe so and could explain the increase in excess reserves. Maybe Ben needs to make some adjustments to stimulate bank lending.
Regardless, I still remain a "Rainman Bull". LOL
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Post by puurfectten on Feb 27, 2011 23:43:11 GMT -5
hey bros..wish i could make an argument for the bull case...but there is none..no credible one anyway....banks r spooked..don't think they r counting on a bailout next time around...inflation spike is probably right around the corner..margin compression..consumer squeeze..rising rates..home values in freefall..munis goin bankrupt..doesn't look like a good time to let ur azzzz hang in the breeze..it'll get chopped right off this time around...they know it...all the 411 is right there..so seems u already know what to do..u can see it...
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Post by jack on Feb 27, 2011 23:56:35 GMT -5
hey bros..wish i could make an argument for the bull case...but there is none..no credible one anyway....banks r spooked..don't think they r counting on a bailout next time around...inflation spike is probably right around the corner..margin compression..consumer squeeze..rising rates..home values in freefall..munis goin bankrupt..doesn't look like a good time to let ur azzzz hang in the breeze..it'll get chopped right off this time around...they know it...all the 411 is right there..so seems u already know what to do..u can see it... "...home values in freefall" my azzzz! lol!!! "But your honor - my property taxes just went up !!!"
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Post by PoorHomey on Feb 28, 2011 1:09:00 GMT -5
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Post by brosin on Mar 10, 2011 15:58:40 GMT -5
Bump - the next release will be out in about an hour
I expect it to show DOOM of a massive degree... the writing has been on the wall.
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Post by maxi on Mar 10, 2011 16:00:38 GMT -5
What release will be out in an hour? I have been futzing with my computer all day...
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Post by brosin on Mar 10, 2011 16:02:19 GMT -5
excess reserves data will be coming out
(sorry for any confusion - this is an older bumped thread [started 2 wks ago])
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