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Post by timber on Jul 4, 2010 9:53:03 GMT -5
i HAVE a real hard time with astology too...so im not even going to open these
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Post by Rich on Jul 4, 2010 10:25:30 GMT -5
Just saw Paul Krugman on CNN. Interesting. Said this deflationary period is making it more attractive to stay cash. Banks with big money...not lending...hmmm. He is also leading the charge for increased stimulus on a large scale. Worry about debt after the economy has gained some footing. The last stimulus was one third tax credits, one third to states so they wouldn't have to lay off employees, and one third actual stimulus. Apparently, that is the reason it was largely invisible. Don't know. The austerity that England is now embracing will slow down recovery, I would think. Cosmic, if you were the prez, what would you do? (no atom bombs and starting over)
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Post by cosmic on Jul 4, 2010 10:52:28 GMT -5
You took like Option 1 and 2 off the table, no fair!
Complete debt forgiveness. So far as I can tell it's the only solution. And working away then from any sort of debt-based economy.
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Post by clemsontygr on Jul 8, 2010 18:36:30 GMT -5
Quick update: Bounce ..... check ... more to come ? Probably.... Things are even more bearish then first thought: Updated chart: www.freestockcharts.com?emailChartID=d75a698a-6d70-4aa9-b02e-1b2094abf8a1After Monday, all bets are off. Being long this market will cause considerable PAIN.... Buying dips ? Negative.... Nasty can happen any day this month.... once it rolls over.... watch out BELOW.... Serious folks, BIG Nasty is upon us .... could happen any day from here till July 26th. IT WILL HAPPEN BY THEN !!! Trust me. Could be 14-21 days down.... (in a row). This is a major bear flag forming.... TD and Clint are right on this one..... Don't bet against the HOT hands...... Regards, CT Trade Lightly
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Post by brosin on Jul 8, 2010 19:14:02 GMT -5
Thanks Clem, good post - while I definitely won't get myself to agree with your fears and visual for what is going to play out, I think they have plenty of merit and you make quite a few points that are hard to argue with.
I will still be optimistic, but it will be a bit more cautious than normal maybe.
I will ask you this, though. At what point (time frame, spx # wise, anything) would you become bullish or less bullish? And I don't mean on the downside, I mean more on the upside. Would there be a point where you would think the doom scenario is off the table for a few years?
I am as permaFAZtastic as they come, say, 5-10 years out (2016 is my target range for the next bust which will be the last straw), but nothing economically scares me in the nearer term with money still essentially free with 0% rates.
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Post by brosin on Jul 8, 2010 19:56:05 GMT -5
Thanks Clem, good post - while I definitely won't get myself to agree with your fears and visual for what is going to play out, I think they have plenty of merit and you make quite a few points that are hard to argue with. I will still be optimistic, but it will be a bit more cautious than normal maybe. I will ask you this, though. At what point (time frame, spx # wise, anything) would you become bullish or less bullish? And I don't mean on the downside, I mean more on the upside. Would there be a point where you would think the doom scenario is off the table for a few years? I am as permaFAZtastic as they come, say, 5-10 years out (2016 is my target range for the next bust which will be the last straw), but nothing economically scares me in the nearer term with money still essentially free with 0% rates. Bros, Thanks for the kind words. To answer your questions.... I fully expect the following based on two years of research: 1. Deflationary(dis-inflation actually) period this fall. Probably bottom around early October. With a few after shocks here and there. Christmas Rally will be on the table this year for sure. 2. 2011 - Brief Market turbulance in mid spring. Markets rally most of the remaining year. GDP and economy recover considerably. 3. Markets should top out Mid Year 2012 (Possible we could see 50k on the dow.... higher ? Maybe. HYPER inflation is coming. (FYI - intrest rates are effectively negative when you include inflation.) 4. Events this fall(summer) and spring will give BB the support needed to print baby print. Which of course is, insane, by definition. 5. Boom--- Bust cycle....thats the FED and PTB game for making $$$ If you notice (well, you will soon) that the crisis' are getting closer together.... hint hint. I think we agree way more than I would've thought. I think the *only* thing we disagree on is timeframe. I look at it more politically - if we are to assume the powers that be want Obama out of office after one term, then I would 100% agree that we would top mid 2012 and divebomb into the stone age eventually. They'll lower rates to 0% again (from eventually the 3-4% range I would guess) and throw all the same tries at the market as they did in 2008, but next time it won't work. I think the Treasury bubble will be set to burst after this next recession because as you mentioned, when inflation takes off for good nearing over 10% a year and we see 0% in treasuries, you will see -10% real return. And that is illogical. The same type of illogical behavior you see before bubbles pop (crude/housing/tech being perfect examples, but all dwarf the size of the treasury bubble / debt bubble of the western world). Each boom has seen rates grow to a lower level than they did before because the Fed is asleep at the wheel of course. I'm more inclined to believe Obama will get re-elected and that the top would be pushed back 4 years to mid 2016 before the rug gets pulled. And to me, that would make better sense because we would have to see the type of hyperinflation you're talking about in record time for us to make a major top by 2012 I think. Doesn't seem plausible seeing as they have yet to even raise rates one time in 18 months of stock market rallying. Crises (plural of crisis? crisises? not sure lol) getting closer together is interesting. I've often thought that the market figures things out much faster these days which is why 2008 was so bad. But I think it's also a result of algos gone wild. We have created our destroyer so to speak. Well, we'll have to watch the election years! No coincidence at what years a lot of market tank jobs have been in. That's more than enough gloom and doom for me. Good thing I got that out of my system for a few months ;D
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Post by cosmic on Jul 10, 2010 16:06:08 GMT -5
I think the next crisis will be the bursting of the Bieber Bubble. I just wanna short it. I made a mint shorting the Jonas bubble. And let's not even discuss my vast riches shorting the Cyrus bubble. I made so much gold shorting the Lohan bubble, and you'd think with shares at .18 there'd be nothing left to short of that bubble, but I'll get that last .17 out of it.
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Post by clemsontygr on Jul 13, 2010 21:01:27 GMT -5
Don't want to rain on the current BULL party BUT: LOL We have now entered the DANGER ZONE !!! www.freestockcharts.com?emailChartID=3c311fc7-bd8e-4297-9820-34e96f981d5dFYI: Earnings are a Lagging indicator. (Nasdaq 2500 priced this INTC report in.) QE2.0 on Deck, right after a 20-30% hair cut from these levels... I'm a patient BEAR :-) Yall keep buying this rally while all the LEADING indicators are pointing DOWN !! Party on !! (PS: Hope you made some coin on this pop too) Regards, CT
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Post by cosmic on Jul 13, 2010 21:50:23 GMT -5
We have a similar view but I think it's a broadening wedge, and it will peak in the 1130-1145 area. Everyone will be buying.
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Post by brosin on Jul 14, 2010 9:35:28 GMT -5
We have a similar view but I think it's a broadening wedge, and it will peak in the 1130-1145 area. Everyone will be buying. Peak over the long term you mean? Peak over a short term I could defintely see, but over the long term I'd say no way.
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Post by clemsontygr on Jul 22, 2010 8:11:20 GMT -5
Quick Update:
As previously stated: We have up to and including July 26th before things start to heat up...
Low Volume rally's : check High Volume Sell-offs : check
This market is on life support.....
Things want to head lower, and they will. It's actually what BSB needs to release the hounds for QE2.0 ($5,000,000,000.00) Yes, 5TRILLION $USD
The reason for July 26 top (Either intra day or close)
Saturn opposition (180 degree's) Uranus on : July 26, 2010
The last time S -180 - Uranus on : Wait for it .........
Wait for it ....
April 26, 2010... ;-)
So, we could rally up to and over all the 50's 100's 200's MA's until then... which would be ideal to sucker in all permabulls and change sentiment to positive....
Then : FLUSH !!
950 is the first target 850 can't be ruled out
I'm on the record as of now for extreme market turbulence after July 27, 2010 thru mid Aug. 2010
Red ALERT !! Market Crash!!
Straight ahead...
Protect yourself or profit. The choice is yours......
Regards,
CT
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Post by cosmic on Jul 22, 2010 8:20:25 GMT -5
In ancient and medieval astrology, and in Vedic astrology still, the outer planets are not considered, For these practitioners, Saturn is the most powerful of the planets - the Lord of Death and Karma, a "malefic" planet that would generally bring about bad things. Modern astrology tends to take a different view of Saturn - one that recognizes his ability to create form and structure, to organize humans into social bodies using customs, morality and rules of law, and to offer up the mundane virtues of discipline, hard work and a desire to achieve something in the physical world. In his guise as the Lord of Time he reminds us that life is fleeting and we'd better do something that will make our lives amount to something.
Other Saturn Opposition dates:
Nov 4 2008 Feb 5 2009 Sep 15 2009 Apr 26 2010 July 26 2010
"The fifth phase on July 26, 2010 occurs at -0- degrees Aries and Libra, within range of a square to Pluto at 3 degrees Capricorn. Normally the late stage of a multi-phase planetary cycle is less difficult than the earlier stages, because we have usually assimilated the necessary planetary energies by that time. The addition of the square from Pluto will create greater urgency and pressure for conflict and war in order to achieve the goal of change and transformation (Pluto) into a new way (Uranus) of living as societies (Saturn) in the world.
This fifth phase of the Saturn/Uranus cycle is actually the harbinger of two Pluto cycles: the square from Saturn to Pluto (visiting three times between November 2009 and August 2010) and the square from Uranus to Pluto which will come within winking distance in July 11 but not perfect until June 2012, continuing through 2015. I'll cover these other major cycles in separate articles, but you can see that what happens during the Saturn/Uranus opposition will set the stage for the next eight years."
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alphaspeculator
Broker/Dealer
I buy high and sell low[F4:alphaspeculator]
Posts: 444
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Post by alphaspeculator on Jul 23, 2010 17:36:29 GMT -5
thomaskoziara.com/rallywithme.htmCrash With Me Revolting news Riots overseas Members of parliament defend their policies on television Children are crying in playgrounds Bloody Futures Hysteria in traders’ voices Panic in everyone’s mind who has a portfolio Disgusting grunts and repulsive mouth gestures Screaming on the floor Hearts attacking Breaths vanishing Minds racing Veins bursting Red eyes Screens flashing No bids Billions at risk Millions vanishing within milliseconds Managers screaming at their traders to get something done Phones die Panic Hysteria Death Hopelessness Sometimes there are times in the markets when people get things completely wrong When they realize it, they begin to act frantically Selling pressure is multiple times greater than buying pressure No one wants to be in the market Everyone stays in the market since they love to play a game They hate themselves for getting crushed repeatedly in the markets but they forget about it as soon as they make some profits When major indexes begin to drop over three percent, there is only one thing to do Crash With Me
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Post by clemsontygr on Jul 27, 2010 6:52:38 GMT -5
we have a rare constelation that would call for a double top around Aug. 4.
No longer using words like "crash".
However, says a "strong" low is due in mid - to - late august. (No date specified, yet)
I'll be "All in" short today.... and will ride it out... Just hoping to get back to even at this point ;-)
(1085 would be my break even point)
Regards,
CT
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Post by cosmic on Jul 27, 2010 9:42:38 GMT -5
Hmmm... so we have Green Arrow vs. the Planets and Stars.
Ouch.
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Post by Dualism on Jul 27, 2010 9:49:46 GMT -5
Hmmm... so we have Green Arrow vs. the Planets and Stars. Ouch. Cosmic, I don't know if you saw this yesterday. www.marketwatch.com/story/crawford-says-apocalypse-begins-monday-2010-07-26But the opening of Crawford's July issue is definitely the sort of thing that upsets people: "NEVER SEEN ANYTHING LIKE JULY! We mean, of course, the planetary pictures in the sky which are developing towards the tightest harmonic alignments in the most potent areas of the zodiacal circle ever recorded in Earth's written history. These portend increasing and maximizing intensity and rapidity of 'change' on every level of existence: mineral, vegetable, animal, human and spirit. Will Capitalism survive? Will Democracy survive? Will our markets survive? Will governments survive? Will humanity survive? Will Earth survive? "We don't know, but we'll be SHORT for it!" Crawford -- along with other astrologers, who however are merely worried about nuclear war, the end of the world etc. -- is impressed with an imminent unusual alignment that apparently involves five key planets. He writes: "Astrologers call it the 'Cardinal Climax.' It is considered to be the most powerful and important planetary alignment of the modern era. Perhaps it heralds the beginning of the real 'Aquarian Age' or the end of the 'Mayan Calendar.' (After all, what's a few months in a 25,600-year cycle?) These energies actually maximize from July 30 through August 3. There have been 'shadows' preceding and will be echoes afterwards for quite some time." Crawford adds: "This huge alignment will be followed by a Full Moon on the Fall Equinox and a Lunar Eclipse on the Winter Solstice. We expect the depth and scope of dislocations during this period to exceed anything we have ever witnessed, both in otherwise civilized interaction among nations, and likely our fill in natural disasters." "We continue to recommend extreme caution and proper emergency measures such as extra food, water, medicines and cash over the next 24 months in particular. Do NOT wait any longer!!"
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Post by Rich on Jul 27, 2010 9:52:43 GMT -5
Okay Dual, I'm going back to the beach!
hahahaahhah!!!!
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Post by cosmic on Jul 27, 2010 9:54:43 GMT -5
I did see it. Now I live in the hurricane zone so extra food, water, medicines, cash, and whatnot always makes sense. But that's 'go buy a doomstead' material right there.
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Post by drtracyb on Jul 27, 2010 9:55:13 GMT -5
Okay Dual, I'm going back to the beach! hahahaahhah!!!! Rich! Did you see my suggestions of things to do in the South Bay?
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Post by Dualism on Jul 27, 2010 9:55:22 GMT -5
Okay Dual, I'm going back to the beach! hahahaahhah!!!! To be sure Crawford is one kooky guy. He is an investment advisor of some sort. And it is amazing no matter what angle one takes, there are people out there who pay attention and pay money, regardless how outlandish.
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Post by Cosmic on Aug 1, 2010 6:10:09 GMT -5
Clearwaters, do you feel there's something to the astrological trading?
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Post by clemsontygr on Aug 3, 2010 9:25:59 GMT -5
Manfred Has thrown in the towel : LOL
"Long-term Subscribers will remember that I have mentioned a couple of times in the past 5+ years that I might discontinue tactical (intermediate-term) stock market signals altogether some day - and today is that day."
"Due to performance reasons, no Amanita signals are possible in the stock indices through 2011. The stock market forecasts are at present not good enough to bet money on them."
Go figure... LOL ... I guess he's bullish too
;-)
Now I'm really screwed .... LOL
Ouch !!
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Post by cosmic on Aug 3, 2010 9:56:19 GMT -5
Maybe it's because we exploded that warhead on that asteroid and moved it's natural trajectory.
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Post by clemsontygr on Aug 24, 2010 11:31:47 GMT -5
Went long
Via short TZA around $40 average ...
Both models have switched to long...
GL
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Post by cosmic on Aug 24, 2010 11:32:24 GMT -5
Mornin Clem, good luck to you as well.
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