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Post by sloop on Jun 8, 2010 18:25:57 GMT -5
V is saying to go long though, so there may be hope for me yet in a short etf. LOL (j/k V!) I have been so wrong lately myself, but for almost two years he has been constantly wrong. I cant believe he still trades with real money.
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Post by tajmahal9898 on Jun 8, 2010 18:49:43 GMT -5
cosmic, next time, let's change the rule slightly...i can manage the spreadsheet...
allow people to hold multiple stocks within portfolio allow people to sell stocks anytime during the specified period, cash from proceeds can't be reinvested i.e. buy-ins allowed only on 1 day, sell allowed on any day during the period..
More like adopting American Option Style instead of European Style that we currently have..
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Post by cosmic on Jun 8, 2010 19:16:52 GMT -5
Absolutely we can change these around. We'll still do a quarterly Road to Opex and we'll add yours. Some similar ideas surrounding Fantasy Portfolios has been thrown around and I think we're working along the same lines.
What we'd do is merge the General Store with the Saloon, add a forum for the Contests and Portfolios, and go from there.
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Post by timber on Jun 8, 2010 20:30:06 GMT -5
i think we each need our own blogs in a bogging section
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Post by ukarlewitz on Jun 8, 2010 21:06:04 GMT -5
I'm still glad I'm not benvestor.
As a group, we stink. 80% of our bets are deep red. We are under performing Spy. We need some training.
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Post by kingdisco on Jun 8, 2010 21:47:52 GMT -5
I'm still glad I'm not benvestor. As a group, we stink. 80% of our bets are deep red. We are under performing Spy. We need some training. i don't know. how many people tossed something out last minute because the contest was closing? i threw out tna at 3:50 just to have something in the contest.
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Post by blueskies on Jun 8, 2010 22:25:19 GMT -5
I'm still glad I'm not benvestor. As a group, we stink. 80% of our bets are deep red. We are under performing Spy. We need some training. i don't know. how many people tossed something out last minute because the contest was closing? i threw out tna at 3:50 just to have something in the contest. I didn't King... I definitely planned it, the timing though is tough with a short ETF. Wanting the market to drop... but not TOO fast and then having to take into consideration a bounce somewhere....then a pull back... it aint EASY!!!!! blue
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Post by PoorHomey on Jun 8, 2010 22:31:32 GMT -5
how many people tossed something out last minute because the contest was closing? i threw out tna at 3:50 just to have something in the contest. Here's how I came to own STX: I was stuck on a conference call at work when I looked up to realize the market was closing in about 5 minutes and I had to pick something to participate. I looked across my desk and saw the stack of failed 300gb Seagate Cheetah® 15k rpm SCSI drives. Utilizing my advanced proprietary InstaDD(tm) fundamental analysis, I came to the conclusion that since their drives tend to fail somewhat consistently, they'll need to be replaced often. This should help drive sales figures, or in the event someone successfully navigates the treacherous labyrinth of their warranty process - will help to deplete existing inventory which they can attempt to disguise as sales. It'd closed down like 21 out of the last 25 trading days at the time I bought it... lol STX and WDC are both good candidates for day trades - watching them sometimes reminds me of LVS/MGM.
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Post by tajmahal9898 on Jun 9, 2010 1:03:57 GMT -5
I'm still glad I'm not benvestor. As a group, we stink. 80% of our bets are deep red. We are under performing Spy. We need some training. I disagree. It's not a reflection on people skills but the format of the contest. In real life, how many people would buy 1 stock on a given day and hold it till opex. Either they will take profits or cut losses and buy back again. To make this contest more real, perhaps we should leverage virtual trading sites that can keep track of the portfolio buy/sell activities.. there are many free virtual trading sites and I have my list of preferred sites.
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Post by blueskies on Jun 9, 2010 7:21:38 GMT -5
you've had some great suggestions Taj, maybe we can implement some of them next time around. Yes it needs to be more real. In real life I woulda taken profit yesterday on my trade. I am sure other's would have had their "stops" hit... so yes... this is fun but inherently flawed as far as how people actually manage their accounts and their trades.
blue
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Post by brosin on Jun 9, 2010 9:07:30 GMT -5
I'm still glad I'm not benvestor. As a group, we stink. 80% of our bets are deep red. We are under performing Spy. We need some training. I disagree. It's not a reflection on people skills but the format of the contest. In real life, how many people would buy 1 stock on a given day and hold it till opex. Either they will take profits or cut losses and buy back again. To make this contest more real, perhaps we should leverage virtual trading sites that can keep track of the portfolio buy/sell activities.. there are many free virtual trading sites and I have my list of preferred sites. I don't know if we can blame it on the format. I see what you're saying, but at the same time I can argue that given the format, we all chose what we thought was the best for a 3 week play. It is still early, but we all played the hand that was dealt, and empirically, we haven't played it well. I'm not all that surprised personally though - that's the market for you. I think we should allow a few entries so that we aren't confined to having to pick a stock on one particular day's price action, or something along the lines of your ideas Taj. This contest is what it is, and I think it's safe to say we so far haven't performed too well vs. the SPX. Plenty of time to come back, but also plenty of time for the squid to find us! ;D
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Post by ukarlewitz on Jun 9, 2010 9:17:20 GMT -5
I like the format the way it is. The goal is to outperform until Opex. What happens in the meantime is entertainment and fodder for teasing the low man (or low woman), which happens to be benvestor right now. Hopefully nobody takes this personally or too seriously. Let's see how we do by opex - can we beat Spy?
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Post by cosmic on Jun 9, 2010 9:24:26 GMT -5
No you can't blame the contest format. The whole point of the contest is a 3 week hold. The Road to Opex contest was an idea hatched very long ago, and came from convos on the YMB about "Had I just held it a bit longer I would have... [become a millionaire, become a billionaire, become a gazillionaire]."
WOULD you have taken profits? Possible. Do you have longer term investments (more than a few day hold)? Probably. Does the contest accurately reflect what happens to a well chosen portfolio? Absolutely. We supposedly bought things we though would do well over 3 weeks.
There has definitely been a shift in the types of picks contestants made. (Contest 1 had a LOT of penny stocks, Contest 2 has a LOT of 'solid' stocks that wouldn't be classified penny stocks.) I attribute that shift in selection to people understanding the 3 week hold.
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Post by tajmahal9898 on Jun 9, 2010 15:11:25 GMT -5
I agree that there are only minor issues with the contest format with the stated mission statement - "Had I just held it a bit longer I would have...", however, I respectively disagree that one could correlate contestant's trading skills based on the above mission statement and current contest format.
Market is a "live thing" and it provides us a continuous spectrum to exercise our trading skills including but not limited to entry price , entry time, exit price, time to reenter, maximize profit, diversify portfolio, manage risks, cut losses.
IMHO, Current format does allow us to test our trading skills, our hands are tied on day 1, and then we are left to market lords to poke us, feed us or whatever they want to do. It is like a Russian Roulette, you are forced to fire on a given day (maybe not of your liking) and then leave all to faith. That's not trading, nor it's investing, that's what I call gambling in my books. No active trader nor Executive Management works this way - people make decisions based on best data points that are available at the time of making the decisions, then if they are smart, they would take corrective measures overtime. Sticking with original decision even if one knows it is leading to wrong place is suicidal.
Said this, am I having *FUN* playing contest, of course, otherwise, why would I have entered and spent couple of hours to create automated spreadsheet.
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Post by kingdisco on Jun 9, 2010 15:13:46 GMT -5
lol we know we're having a good time when we're arguing i can't remember if the last contest even stirred up much attention.
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Post by timber on Jun 9, 2010 16:51:36 GMT -5
how is anyone to win here if the markets go up and down like a yo yo
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Post by cosmic on Jun 9, 2010 18:53:52 GMT -5
Timber wins the contest with his comment!
lol but you're exactly right. How is an investor to win.
Road to Opex is not a trading contest. It's the most excruciating journey every investor makes... picking a stock when they receive their bonus on Memorial Day, and investing it. You have thousands of choices for investing your bonus ($50K Bernanke Bucks!) and you've been chomping at the bit to get it into the market.
You studied the market for at least a week in advance, thinking about how you were going to invest your bonus, because you wanted it to start working right away!
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Post by tajmahal9898 on Jun 9, 2010 19:09:13 GMT -5
Perfect.
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Post by sloop on Jun 9, 2010 21:02:11 GMT -5
so who is posting the out come today?
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Post by cosmic on Jun 9, 2010 21:08:04 GMT -5
Sloop, just go to the Google link Taj provided earlier in the thread, and it's automatically updated.
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Post by sloop on Jun 9, 2010 21:23:32 GMT -5
thanks
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Post by zabee on Jun 10, 2010 23:21:48 GMT -5
I am 6th!!! From the bottom :-(
Well still have another week right|?
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Post by ask2lern on Jun 13, 2010 7:12:04 GMT -5
lol we know we're having a good time when we're arguing i can't remember if the last contest even stirred up much attention. Thats the effect the chance to win gold and silver has on people.......LOL
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Post by benvestor on Jun 14, 2010 1:25:05 GMT -5
thanks UK.. thanks
;D
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Post by bellevuetrader on Jun 14, 2010 12:08:22 GMT -5
Looks like Im coming up quick on the road to OPEX LOL!
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Post by cosmic on Jun 14, 2010 12:46:34 GMT -5
Move aside ;D lol
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Post by cosmic on Jun 14, 2010 15:04:05 GMT -5
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Post by ask2lern on Jun 14, 2010 15:16:43 GMT -5
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Post by ukarlewitz on Jun 14, 2010 21:45:12 GMT -5
We have a new leader. The cellar, on the other hand, is under firm control.
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Post by blueskies on Jun 14, 2010 22:31:11 GMT -5
this is fun. four days to go...
blue
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