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Post by bellevuetrader on Aug 16, 2010 16:28:29 GMT -5
Anyone? And at what point does TBT become a buy? Commod...wanna chime in with your treasury knowledge?
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Post by maxi on Aug 16, 2010 16:58:17 GMT -5
TLT
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Post by timber on Aug 16, 2010 16:59:52 GMT -5
i shorted the yen today.  ...direxion has a 3x short for the us treasury index i showed you all earlier |
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Post by timber on Aug 16, 2010 17:03:30 GMT -5
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Post by brosin on Aug 16, 2010 17:06:09 GMT -5
Shorting TLT will be the equivalent of shorting FAZ in the long run - a can't lose with decay involved. But it's a matter of where it tops out.
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Post by commodityypro on Aug 16, 2010 17:25:57 GMT -5
Anyone? And at what point does TBT become a buy? Commod...wanna chime in with your treasury knowledge? Maxine is correct in that TLT is the inverse. TBT becomes a buy when you think that the treasury yields will rise. Many are getting burned in TBT now. I was using TBT as a hedge to my bear plays last year because typically if the market was going up then yields would go up as well. This is considering fundamentally that when risk decreases then $$ will come out of treasuries, hence the yields rising as the prices for these treasuries falls, due to people wanting a bigger return on their money. The time to get into TBT is when you think inflation is ready roll and from what I am seeing we still have a ways to go until then. I used to have a big position in TBT but now only have a little left that I think I may just dump on the next pop. There is decay factor with these as Brosin points out. GL! |
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Post by ukarlewitz on Aug 16, 2010 18:12:19 GMT -5
I think you will see a s-t reversal tomorrow. TLT hit a 3 std deviation delta from its 20dma today. If you throw a BB (20,2) on TLT you'll see it has not previously traded this far outside in the past 3 years. Normally, it hits the upper BB and then retreats. It could, worst case, pause here as the BB adjusts, and then explode higher, but the only time it has done this is in the mess at the end of 2008.
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Post by trading4dough on Aug 16, 2010 18:20:59 GMT -5
It could, worst case, pause here as the BB adjusts, and then explode higher, but the only time it has done this is in the mess at the end of 2008. Kinda sums it up right there |
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Post by ccash04 on Aug 16, 2010 18:23:04 GMT -5
Btw TLT is not the opposite of TBT really as TBT is a leveraged fund and is a 20 year treasury swap (thus leverage/decay). TLT is unleveraged and owns the underlying 20 year treasury index so it does not have decay. UK is right no point in chasing the bonds that much right now, you don't see movements this far away from the MA, its ripe for a pullback (could be small). Watch fund flows and see if this was just a Mutual Fund Monday but for bond/bond funds.
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Post by commodityypro on Aug 16, 2010 18:22:10 GMT -5
It could, worst case, pause here as the BB adjusts, and then explode higher, but the only time it has done this is in the mess at the end of 2008. Kinda sums it up right there LOL, T4 I was going to say the same thing. |
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Post by ccash04 on Aug 16, 2010 18:24:23 GMT -5
If you are going to trade the bonds, why not just use the futures for the leverage instead of the ETF?
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Post by jack on Aug 16, 2010 18:24:47 GMT -5
It could, worst case, pause here as the BB adjusts, and then explode higher, but the only time it has done this is in the mess at the end of 2008. Kinda sums it up right there So now its: "Short the known Universe" time, Mr Dough? |
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Post by timber on Aug 16, 2010 18:34:14 GMT -5
The addition of TWOL and TWOZ expands Direxion’s leveraged fixed income offerings to six funds, joining 300% and -300% ETFs linked to the the NYSE Arca Current 10-Year U.S. Treasury Index (TYD and TYO) and NYSE Arca Current 30-Year U.S. Treasury Index (TMF and TMV). While most leveraged ETFs are linked to equity benchmarks, leveraged bond funds have seen a surge in popularity over the last year. According to the latest industry figures from the National Stock Exchange, leveraged bond ETF assets exceed $5 billion, with the vast majority of that amount in inverse funds. The ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury (TBT) took in more than $2 billion alone last year.
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Post by commodityypro on Aug 16, 2010 18:34:17 GMT -5
If you are going to trade the bonds, why not just use the futures for the leverage instead of the ETF? ETF's make it easier to trade without being involved in options |
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Post by trading4dough on Aug 16, 2010 18:35:16 GMT -5
Kinda sums it up right there So now its: "Short the known Universe" time, Mr Dough? Im not going to go crazy Jack but I have been trading short EFTs So I have tza and spxu in for 1/3 I think there is lots of risk here and I think across the board the market is speaking volumes I think "generally" speaking the sentiment is bullish and I dont think there are many bearish people out there .......... as far as people willing to use their $ to go short I think the blogger sentiment is coming in somewhere around 4-1 on the bull side |
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Post by brosin on Aug 16, 2010 18:38:17 GMT -5
Btw TLT is not the opposite of TBT really as TBT is a leveraged fund and is a 20 year treasury swap (thus leverage/decay). TLT is unleveraged and owns the underlying 20 year treasury index so it does not have decay. UK is right no point in chasing the bonds that much right now, you don't see movements this far away from the MA, its ripe for a pullback (could be small). Watch fund flows and see if this was just a Mutual Fund Monday but for bond/bond funds. Thanks Cash - major EXALT for you; here the last few years, I had always thought TLT was the double long ETF and the opposite of TBT. I saw your post and went 'huh?' I checked, and right you are!! Glad that I now I have my head out of my arse ;D - much appreciated. Something about challenging one's own assumptions sometimes Good thing this thread was started. |
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Post by brosin on Aug 16, 2010 18:39:03 GMT -5
I think "generally" speaking the sentiment is bullish and I dont think there are many bearish people out there .......... as far as people willing to use their $ to go short I think the blogger sentiment is coming in somewhere around 4-1 on the bull side  I feel like perhaps we are on different planets - what blogs do you read? |
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Post by trading4dough on Aug 16, 2010 18:42:40 GMT -5
I think "generally" speaking the sentiment is bullish and I dont think there are many bearish people out there .......... as far as people willing to use their $ to go short I think the blogger sentiment is coming in somewhere around 4-1 on the bull side I feel like perhaps we are on different planets - what blogs do you read? bwaaaaaaaaaahahahahahaha let me dig around i will find something its not quite as bearish as you think |
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Post by commodityypro on Aug 16, 2010 18:46:40 GMT -5
This whole headfake started the day the FOMC annoucement was made. Once people saw no change and that the Fed was going to be buying longer maturity tresauries, then most people automatically thought, QE and dollar will fall and stocks will melt up like 09'. MAny bought stocks right anfter the announcement and/or went long. The big $$ saw this as an opportunity to go short as they knew that no change meant no QE and therefore positioned themselves for a fall, which the markets have done. I don't see 1 good solid reasoning why the markets will rally over the next month here. Am I missing something? Please, I'm all ears. I agree that the sentiment of the avg. investor (bloggers or whatever you wanna call them), is bullish. Just look at this board and that rings true as the bullish sentiment is far outweighing the bearish. I could be totally wrong but I think if we see a puch here that it's just the top forming before the bottom falls out, again.
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Post by jack on Aug 16, 2010 18:48:33 GMT -5
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Post by brosin on Aug 16, 2010 18:52:20 GMT -5
I feel like perhaps we are on different planets - what blogs do you read? bwaaaaaaaaaahahahahahaha let me dig around i will find something its not quite as bearish as you think All the PPDT links that I have been going through while filling in for UK over the past couple weeks are consensually bearish biased with the exception of Tony Caldaro. I had not kept up with the blogosphere for the previous 12 months I would say; not worth it. They are all bears. Doom sells more than rainbows. Think about how many bailed long on the break under 1100 after finally chasing after the fast move from 1070 to 1100. Think about how many bailed when we didn't get over 1130 there - we swiftly lost almost 5% in 3 days. If we were topping out at 1129, why didn't we false break to a new high first? I don't see it. I am in general a bear right now, but each day in the cave makes me feel that those I'm there with are still delusional. 2008 is there heaven and they think it's coming again. |
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Post by timber on Aug 16, 2010 18:57:27 GMT -5
I am extremely bullish on stocks now...ive seen enough to know now that the bubble is in bonds and the place to be here is in stocks....i have no doubt about that....bubbles burst.......and i dont want to be on the wrong side  |
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Post by trading4dough on Aug 16, 2010 18:59:53 GMT -5
I think "generally" speaking the sentiment is bullish and I dont think there are many bearish people out there .......... as far as people willing to use their $ to go short I think the blogger sentiment is coming in somewhere around 4-1 on the bull side I feel like perhaps we are on different planets - what blogs do you read? ahhhhhhhh its tied last week it was bull biased tickersense.typepad.com/ |
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Post by brosin on Aug 16, 2010 19:03:47 GMT -5
I am extremely bullish on stocks now...ive seen enough to know now that the bubble is in bonds and the place to be here is in stocks....i have no doubt about that....bubbles burst.......and i dont want to be on the wrong side The only thing I would say Timber, is that rarely do bubbles burst when everyone's talking about how it is a bubble. It usually is when everyone thinks it's not a bubble and is only going to keep going way up that it should pop. Not sure we're quite there yet, although I also don't see how much higher it could go (I've thought that for a little while now). And if the Treasury bubble bursts, *is* that good for stocks? Conventional wisdom says yes, but I'm still not so certain. Once it starts popping, the US will not be able to borrow nearly as much to meet our deficits. Is that bullish for the global economy? I don't think so. There's a whole lot of Catch 22s out there in the current world. |
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Post by commodityypro on Aug 16, 2010 19:06:33 GMT -5
I am extremely bullish on stocks now...ive seen enough to know now that the bubble is in bonds and the place to be here is in stocks....i have no doubt about that....bubbles burst.......and i dont want to be on the wrong side Timber, you seriously think what you are seeing is a bubble in treasuries and that we are going to see full fledged inflation soon as yields explode to the up side? lol Better keep hitting that 4 footer.. |
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Post by timber on Aug 16, 2010 19:10:33 GMT -5
then why comm....were you a tbt holder for so long then....a bubble surges before it pops and it surged like i never scene it before....like when oil surged over 140 then crashed soon after.....gs was saying oil 200 days before i wont ever forget that oil surge....or the dot com surge either
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Post by ccash04 on Aug 16, 2010 19:11:39 GMT -5
I am extremely bullish on stocks now...ive seen enough to know now that the bubble is in bonds and the place to be here is in stocks....i have no doubt about that....bubbles burst.......and i dont want to be on the wrong side The only thing I would say Timber, is that rarely do bubbles burst when everyone's talking about how it is a bubble. It usually is when everyone thinks it's not a bubble and is only going to keep going way up that it should pop. Not sure we're quite there yet, although I also don't see how much higher it could go (I've thought that for a little while now). And if the Treasury bubble bursts, *is* that good for stocks? Conventional wisdom says yes, but I'm still not so certain. Once it starts popping, the US will not be able to borrow nearly as much to meet our deficits. Is that bullish for the global economy? I don't think so. There's a whole lot of Catch 22s out there in the current world. Correct, you want the curve to return to a more normal curve (steeper from here). Right now bonds are painting a picture of deflation; however, what they are not taking into account is in a fiat currency deflation means the government will pump/print money like crazy. This will eventually create a hyper inflationary period where the bonds will not be yielding 2-4%. This is why I think gold is still at highs even though we are looking at potential deflation if you look at the yield curve. |
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Post by brosin on Aug 16, 2010 19:15:23 GMT -5
I am extremely bullish on stocks now...ive seen enough to know now that the bubble is in bonds and the place to be here is in stocks....i have no doubt about that....bubbles burst.......and i dont want to be on the wrong side Timber, you seriously think what you are seeing is a bubble in treasuries and that we are going to see full fledged inflation soon as yields explode to the up side? lol Better keep hitting that 4 footer.. Ok, hold on now. So are you saying that we are not in a bubble, or that it's not going to pop soon? I agree 100% with the latter point, and 100% disagree with the former. Treasuries are the biggest bubble we've ever seen in my opinion; I am not alone: Buffett 2/28/09:The investment world has gone from underpricing risk to overpricing it. This change has not been minor; the pendulum has covered an extraordinary arc. A few years ago, it would have seemed unthinkable that yields like today’s could have been obtained on good-grade municipal or corporate bonds even while risk-free governments offered near-zero returns on short-term bonds and no better than a pittance on long-terms. When the financial history of this decade is written, it will surely speak of the Internet bubble of the late 1990s and the housing bubble of the early 2000s. But the U.S. Treasury bond bubble of late 2008 may be regarded as almost equally extraordinary.Only, the bubble of 2008 has only gotten bigger thanks to the Fed monetizing the debt with QE. And Comm, you want the Fed to inflate the price of Treasuries even *more?* |
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Post by ukarlewitz on Aug 16, 2010 21:53:25 GMT -5
Probability is very high that it s-t retraces.  Uploaded with ImageShack.us |
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...direxion has a 3x short for the us treasury index i showed you all earlier
