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Post by tendermyshares on Mar 29, 2012 17:16:36 GMT -5
Oh, Jack, actually I think you're right, I'm sorry. The original chart I posted where I mentioned the head and shoulders is indeed a 7 day chart. I later posted a 2 month chart that in my view also had a potential head and shoulders, and in my mind that was the one where I mentioned it, but I remembered wrong. However, I assure you that the timeframe of the chart had absolutely nothing to do with my not taking the time to draw a target on it this morning when I was busy babysitting a trade. I shouldn't have been posting at all at the time. And I certainly didn't mean to suggest that the first chart was anything other than a 7 day chart, I did say it was an hourly chart. Here's that longer term chart with one completed and one potential head and shoulders. If you look at the first one the target did indeed play out perfectly. This 2nd one is much choppier in its formation and therefore potentially less reliable. I drew targets for both. Interestingly, as the horizontal white line shows (possibly blue in the screenshot), the high of this 2nd round is a slightly lower high, which may seem insignificant but in the world of TA is important. If you don't buy that, it's certainly a double top. Now if it is indeed a head and shoulders, where the right shoulder will be considered fully formed, whether now or days from now, is still up for grabs. This target would be 1550 but that depends on whether this even plays out to be a H&S. That is higher than the previous target so a lot of things unsure here. That depends on where you draw the neckline which has several possibilities too. Each candle is 4 hours on this chart. Uploaded with ImageShack.us
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Post by jack on Mar 29, 2012 17:17:19 GMT -5
How does this play though? In 2008 gold (GLD) retraced from 100.44 to 68.81 = 31.59 Last year's high was 185.85. Subtract a symmetrical 31.59 and ya get 154.26!!! Round it off to GLD 150. 150's my mark or Gold around $1500-1550/oz which sorta confirms Novice's numbers. She's a smart girl is Novice!!! THAT's my mark By George, Jack, I think you GOT it! But I'm saying "could" not "will". The big boys are determined, gold higher & higher erodes CONfidence in their fiat. But you already knew that! Them Boyz is Powerful!!! P.S. Whatcha mean "sorta"? Nov - you said 1500-1525; I said 1500-1550 That's a "sorta" ain't it?! lol!!!!
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Post by jack on Mar 29, 2012 17:24:51 GMT -5
Oh, Jack, actually I think you're right, I'm sorry. The original chart I posted where I mentioned the head and shoulders is indeed a 7 day chart. I later posted a 2 month chart that in my view also had a potential head and shoulders, and in my mind that was the one where I mentioned it, but I was wrong. However, I assure you that the timeframe of the chart had absolutely nothing to do with my not taking the time to draw a target on it this morning when I was busy babysitting a trade. I shouldn't have been posting at all at the time. And I certainly didn't mean to suggest that the first chart was anything other than a 7 day chart, I did say it was an hourly chart. Here's that longer term chart with one completed and one potential head and shoulders. If you look at the first one the target did indeed play out perfectly. This 2nd one is much choppier in its formation and therefore potentially less reliable. I drew targets for both. Interestingly, as the horizontal white line shows (possibly blue in the screenshot), the high of this 2nd round is a slightly lower high, which may seem insignificant but in the world of TA is important. If you don't buy that, it's certainly a double top. Now if it is indeed a head and shoulders, where the right shoulder will be considered fully formed, whether now or days from now, is still up for grabs. This target would be 1550 but that depends on whether this even plays out to be a H&S. That is higher than the previous target so a lot of things unsure here. That depends on where you draw the neckline which has several possibilities too. Each candle is 4 hours on this chart. Uploaded with ImageShack.usIts okay....sorry you missed the trade....thanks for the above.
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Post by tendermyshares on Mar 29, 2012 17:25:15 GMT -5
The target on the chart I just drew is also 1550 but that is drastically up for grabs as I tried to explain at far too much length.
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Post by huh? on Mar 29, 2012 17:49:52 GMT -5
And to complicate it further, and even though I don't believe in them at tops of a run, that could be a major iH&S forming. Could run to 1900 just to test it.
Bwahahaha
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Post by tendermyshares on Mar 29, 2012 17:50:55 GMT -5
I was just gonna add to my previous post, "So we all agree". Darn you, Huh?!
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Post by jack on Mar 29, 2012 18:04:18 GMT -5
The potential sale of the goldmine and/or goldmining company later this year will be a function of the price of gold at the time as well as other factors. Although I like huh?'s scenario A LOT better than the 1550 consensus....I don't see that in the cards until next year.
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Post by novice08 on Mar 29, 2012 20:13:12 GMT -5
The potential sale of the goldmine and/or goldmining company later this year will be a function of the price of gold at the time as well as other factors. Although I like huh?'s scenario A LOT better than the 1550 consensus....I don't see that in the cards until next year. Continental has a suitor? Awesome! Unfortunately, I'm thinking there's a bigger flush coming. Thanks for all those charts tender. Sure hope I'm wrong.
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Post by jack on Mar 29, 2012 22:26:16 GMT -5
The potential sale of the goldmine and/or goldmining company later this year will be a function of the price of gold at the time as well as other factors. Although I like huh?'s scenario A LOT better than the 1550 consensus....I don't see that in the cards until next year. Continental has a suitor? Awesome! Unfortunately, I'm thinking there's a bigger flush coming. Thanks for all those charts tender. Sure hope I'm wrong. My guess is that when the resource report is issued it'll have more than one suitor aand a bidding war will commence ;D - the grade of gold at Burritica is "bonanza quality". So how far down do you think gold will go Nov?
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Post by Clinton SPX on Mar 29, 2012 22:35:41 GMT -5
heres one of my fav formations iH&S in a down channel Attachments:
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Post by huh? on Mar 29, 2012 23:24:53 GMT -5
I just wanted to be clear on my thoughts on iH&S patterns forming at the top of a run:
EDIT: (better stated after some sleep) - An iH&S occurring at the top of a run-up is much more likely to become a double top at a test, or even after a confirmed breakout, of the neckline. And is less likely to hit its minimum upside target.
Of course the opposite of this holds true for H&S patterns at the bottom of a downtrend.
Another good indicator of a H&S or iH&S type pattern likely to fail is when you see a rounded roll over on the transition from the head to the right shoulder. It should normally be a quick trend reversal. A rounded one usually spells trouble for the whole pattern IMO.
A good example of an iH&S forming at the top of a run, and a rounded transition from the head to the right shoulder, is the S&P daily between 02/18/11-04/26/11. After it broke through the neckline, it never reached the minimum target and failed. It then came back for a head test on 06/16/11. This one is also a good lesson in remembering that when you see a failed H&S or failed iH&S pattern, there is likely a similar inverse pattern either around it or within it. This is, IMO, because a failed H&S will likely turn into a larger iH&S pattern, or vice versa.
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Post by ask2lern on Mar 30, 2012 6:30:40 GMT -5
From www.optionmonster.com ...........................GLTA Bull takes a shine to gold fundThe SPDR Gold Shares Fund has been trading in line with equities, and now the bulls are stepping in. The GLD finished the session at $161.28, down fractionally, climbing off the lows of the session. It pushed above $165 on Tuesday and has been trading in lock-step with the S&P 500 more recently. It sits in the middle of its range for 2012, coming into the year around $155 before climbing to $174 and then retreating. A July call spread topped the option action. A trader bought 20,000 of the 185 calls for the ask price of $0.88 and sold the same number of the 210 calls for $0.18. The volume was well above open interest at both strikes so this was a new opening call spread. He or she paid $0.70, which will be lost if they hold the spread through expiration and the GLD is below $185. If the fund is above $210, the spread will expand to $24.30. The 52-week high is $185.85.
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Post by jack on Mar 30, 2012 19:46:47 GMT -5
secure.campaigner.com/Campaigner/Public/t.show?RUNB--CpeF-vncqF1Click "Gold Blossoming in Colombia: Paul Harris" EXCERPT: TGR: Continental Gold is the crown jewel of junior mining plays in Colombia. Its flagship project is Buriticá. It currently has a market cap of $830M. The management team has had success with Colossus Minerals Inc. (CSI:TSX; COLUF:OTCQX) and its Serra Pelada project in Brazil. What's next for Continental?
PH: Buriticá is an incredible high-grade project. It is the exploration project that people dream of being involved with or investing in at an early stage, because of its high grade gold veins and the fact that there are so many of them. Continental is also a great example of the value a good management team brings to a company. CEO Ari Sussman had success with Colossus Minerals and he has very good connections with key funders and banks. As he has made a lot of money for people before, he was able to fund Continental very well and get a lot of institutional support into the stock. Very sensibly, when the stock had shot up to about CA$7.50 in mid 2010, he did another financing that means the company's very well funded and, therefore, able to focus on the job at hand, which is exploring, defining a resource and discovering more gold. Many people think that Buriticá will be the first gold mine in Colombia, and the company's starting to advance with some of the early-stage work, such as putting in roads to the site. It expects to be in production as early as 2014 or 2015.
One of the incredible things about Continental Gold is that it has other highly regarded projects as well, including Berlin north of Medellín that looks like it has all the indications of potentially being another big mine. The company just has to get out there, drill it and prove up the resources. DISCLOSURE: I'm long CNL
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Post by tendermyshares on Mar 30, 2012 19:56:41 GMT -5
I wish I understood options spreads. If you buy calls at a 180 strike, you need it to close above 180 plus your purchase price at expiration, or to have the price plus the premium at some point prior to expiration be to your benefit. If you sell calls at 210 strike, if that was all you did, you'd want the stock to close at or below 210 to make money. So I don't get, how are you making more money if the expiration is greater than 210 by opening this spread? Wouldn't you be making more money just to open the 180 calls? If it goes over 210 you start to lose money on the 210 calls you sold. Maybe I don't get what they mean by, if the price goes above 210, the spread will expand to $24.30. It seems like they are saying that in contrast to that they paid .70 per contract. Maybe that's not the case. So what does it mean to say the spread will expand to 24.30? My understanding of this is that for every dollar the price goes over 210, the purchased calls would gain a dollar and the sold calls would lose a dollar -- ah, is that it? Anything over 210 and you still make as much money as you would ahve below that without risking losing anything more. I dunno. From www.optionmonster.com ...........................GLTA Bull takes a shine to gold fundThe SPDR Gold Shares Fund has been trading in line with equities, and now the bulls are stepping in. The GLD finished the session at $161.28, down fractionally, climbing off the lows of the session. It pushed above $165 on Tuesday and has been trading in lock-step with the S&P 500 more recently. It sits in the middle of its range for 2012, coming into the year around $155 before climbing to $174 and then retreating. A July call spread topped the option action. A trader bought 20,000 of the 185 calls for the ask price of $0.88 and sold the same number of the 210 calls for $0.18. The volume was well above open interest at both strikes so this was a new opening call spread. He or she paid $0.70, which will be lost if they hold the spread through expiration and the GLD is below $185. If the fund is above $210, the spread will expand to $24.30. The 52-week high is $185.85.
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Post by jack on Mar 30, 2012 21:05:14 GMT -5
I wish I understood options spreads. If you buy calls at a 180 strike, you need it to close above 180 plus your purchase price at expiration, or to have the price plus the premium at some point prior to expiration be to your benefit. If you sell calls at 210 strike, if that was all you did, you'd want the stock to close at or below 210 to make money. So I don't get, how are you making more money if the expiration is greater than 210 by opening this spread? Wouldn't you be making more money just to open the 180 calls? If it goes over 210 you start to lose money on the 210 calls you sold. Maybe I don't get what they mean by, if the price goes above 210, the spread will expand to $24.30. It seems like they are saying that in contrast to that they paid .70 per contract. Maybe that's not the case. So what does it mean to say the spread will expand to 24.30? My understanding of this is that for every dollar the price goes over 210, the purchased calls would gain a dollar and the sold calls would lose a dollar -- ah, is that it? Anything over 210 and you still make as much money as you would ahve below that without risking losing anything more. I dunno. From www.optionmonster.com ...........................GLTA Bull takes a shine to gold fundThe SPDR Gold Shares Fund has been trading in line with equities, and now the bulls are stepping in. The GLD finished the session at $161.28, down fractionally, climbing off the lows of the session. It pushed above $165 on Tuesday and has been trading in lock-step with the S&P 500 more recently. It sits in the middle of its range for 2012, coming into the year around $155 before climbing to $174 and then retreating. A July call spread topped the option action. A trader bought 20,000 of the 185 calls for the ask price of $0.88 and sold the same number of the 210 calls for $0.18. The volume was well above open interest at both strikes so this was a new opening call spread. He or she paid $0.70, which will be lost if they hold the spread through expiration and the GLD is below $185. If the fund is above $210, the spread will expand to $24.30. The 52-week high is $185.85. Re: "I wish I understood options spreads." I wish I understood options - PERIOD! Bwahahahahahaaaaa!
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Post by novice08 on Mar 31, 2012 23:04:27 GMT -5
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Post by jack on Apr 1, 2012 19:06:07 GMT -5
Ooooooh!!!! I LIKE that notion of an inverse relationship between PMs and the Market now!!!!! lol!!!!
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Post by novice08 on Apr 1, 2012 19:36:51 GMT -5
Can't figure if miners will go down w/markets (they are obviously equities) or up w/the real stuff. That's the dilemma.
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Post by novice08 on Apr 3, 2012 11:46:31 GMT -5
Here come da silver! There goes da silver!
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Post by jack on Apr 3, 2012 11:48:07 GMT -5
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Post by Clinton SPX on Apr 3, 2012 21:19:15 GMT -5
Joe Terranova shorting gold everyone on fast money bearish
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Post by Clinton SPX on Apr 3, 2012 21:25:57 GMT -5
Attachments:
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Post by novice08 on Apr 3, 2012 22:12:24 GMT -5
Much worse, GS is bullish LOL. They must have a gazillion shorts/naked shorts. Plus, I think if I read that "gold/gold stocks have bottomed" one more time, I'll scream. Or
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Post by jack on Apr 3, 2012 22:18:02 GMT -5
Much worse, GS is bullish LOL. They must have a gazillion shorts/naked shorts. Ughhhhhh....dunno about you but the thought of Lloyd in shorts is highly repugnant to me.
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Post by novice08 on Apr 4, 2012 8:43:11 GMT -5
Gold down huge, but little PZG +3.3%.
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Post by PoorHomey on Apr 6, 2012 12:17:11 GMT -5
Maybe this is a sign those who are short gold will get melted soon? I'm think in about pokin a hole in this bag and squeezin the melty bear-guts on some animal crackers...
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