PPDT - 11/09/2011 Wednesday - PP-XLF = 13.52

[ask2lern]

Good Morning Gang
Here are the pivots……….…hope everyone has a great day ……GLTA


GOLD


R3 1844.43
R2 1816.63
R1 1801.37

PP 1788.83

S1 1773.57
S2 1761.03
S3 1733.23


SILVER

R3 36.89
R2 35.95
R1 35.47

PP 35.01

S1 34.53
S2 34.07
S3 33.13


IWM

R3 79.24
R2 77.06
R1 76.30

PP 74.88

S1 74.12
S2 72.70
S3 70.52




TNA

R3 57.08
R2 52.91
R1 51.46

PP 48.74

S1 47.29
S2 44.57
S3 40.40



TZA

R3 34.15
R2 31.58
R1 29.20

PP 29.01

S1 27.33
S2 26.44
S3 23.87


SDS

R3 22.77
R2 21.31
R1 20.35

PP 19.85

S1 18.89
S2 18.39
S3 16.93

SSO

R3 50.90
R2 49.20
R1 48.60

PP 47.50

S1 46.90
S2 45.80
S3 44.10

…………………………..GLTA

[ask2lern]

From www.optionmonster.com .......................GLTA

Indexes break important upside levels

The indexes posted healthy gains yesterday and pushed through some important resistance levels. For the Nasdaq 100, crossing the 2400 threshold puts it within 40 points of its high for the year.

The S&P 500 crossed back above its 200-day moving average, which had been hard resistance but now becomes support. The Russell 2000 remains the relative laggard, with quite a distance to go before its 200-day moving average.

For the bulls, the "long squeeze" into year end appears to be turning into a real scenario. As the crisis in Europe eases--or at least grabs fewer headlines--the focus has turned to performance.

Managers of funds that have been badly battered by volatile conditions this year are rushing to catch up after underperforming with passive index investing. To keep pace with their best-performing peers, they will probably need to commit more cash to stocks or risk falling behind.

How long this performance dynamic lasts is hard to say, but it could extend for many weeks in the absence of a major negative catalyst.

Levels have changed significantly after a brief lull on Friday and Monday. The trick now will be challenging the old highs of late October and early November.

Nasdaq 100 (NDX)
Support is at 2373.82 and then at 2360.78, its 10-day moving average. Resistance is at 2412.52, the pivot high from Oct. 27, and then at the year-to-date high at 2438.44.

S&P 500 (SPX)
Support is at its 200-day moving average, last at 1272.97, and then at 1257.26, its 10-day moving average. Resistance is at 1287.08 and then 1298.61.

Russell 2000 (RUT)
Support is at 744.01, its 10-day moving average, and then at 736.02. Resistance is at 761 and then at 777.43, its 200-day moving average. Above that, next resistance would be at 793.80.

[ask2lern]

From www.optionmonster.com ..........................GLTA

Mortgages, oil, trade, Fed on calendar

Today's economic calendar is the fullest that it will be for the week, including mortgage data, oil inventories, and trade numbers.

In addition, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke will speak starting at 9:30 a.m. ET at a Federal Reserve's conference on "Small Business and Entrepreneurship During an Economic Recovery."

At 7 a.m. ET, the MBA Purchase Applications data for the previous week will be released. Economists do not make forecasts for this report, and I look only at the purchases component because it indicates new economic activity as opposed to refinancing.

The previous report came in at 174.8. A reading that is higher that that number by 5 percent or more would be considered bullish. If purchases are lower by the same margin or more, it would be bearish.

Wholesale Trade comes out at 10 a.m. ET. Inventories are expected to grow by 0.5 percent, while sales are expected to outpace inventory growth at 0.8 percent. This is a nearly ideal ratio in that both categories are growing, with sales outpacing inventories.

The range of estimates for inventory grow is from 0.2 percent to 0.9 percent. The sales forecast range is from 0.3 percent to 1.1 percent. Sales at the high with inventories at the low would be bullish, suggesting that demand is outstripping supply. The inverse could signal a developing inventory glut.

The EIA Petroleum Status Report will be released at 10:30 a.m. ET. Before the EIA data comes out, the American Petroleum Institute issues a competing report based on its own supply data.

The forecast for both reports was for a build of 413,000 barrels. But the API release, which came out last night after the market closed, showed a smaller build of 148,000 barrels instead.

If the EIA data confirms this smaller build or shows a negative number indicating a draw, it could be bullish for crude. If instead the build number is larger than the API's 148,000 barrels, it could be bearish for crude.

The EIA is a government body, and the API is a private industry group. The two reports do not always agree either in terms of amount or direction.

[ask2lern]

I suspect the metals may get hit today and maybe a couple days as a result of margin call selling especially if this continues into the next couple sessions.................I am still bearish silver but would buy dips in Gold as everyone of them has provided a good entry point and there is most likely going to be some massive printing someplace to stem this EU crisis IMO.......................GLTA

[ask2lern]

Interesting OI on the 55 DEC VIX calls 127,599 ................................

[ask2lern]

grassosteve Steve Grasso
S&P levels 1215 1221 1230 1242 1257
13 minutes ago Favorite Retweet Reply

[ask2lern]

Hedgeye Hedgeye
As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 27 points or -1.40% downside to 1258 and 0.71% upside to 1285. $spy
24 minutes ago Favorite Retweet Reply

[ask2lern]

FractalHIS FractalHIS
Euro down side tgts are1.3602, then 1.3564. If lower, 1.3503 - 1.3474
36 minutes ago Favorite Reply

[ask2lern]

Attitrade Darren Miller
125.23 is the weekly pivot. Key level at the open. $SPY stks.co/12ju
1 minute ago Favorite Retweet Reply

[Clinton SPX]

GM's Earnings Drop 15% to $1.7 Billion

[Clinton SPX]

Remember what oil prices did in 2008 when GS came out with 200 target?


BBC-9 November 2011 Last updated at 08:25 ET Share this pageEmailPrint
ShareFacebookTwitter
Oil prices are in the danger zone, warns the IEA

The Gulf of Mexico could be important to future oil production
Oil prices could hit $150 a barrel in the next few years if investment in the Middle East and North Africa fails to keep up with demand, according to the International Energy Agency.

Prices have remained high throughout 2011, partly because of supply disruptions in Libya.

"We are in the danger zone for the global economy at current levels," said IEA economist Fatih Birol.

The agency warned prices could keep rising to $212 a barrel by 2035

[Clinton SPX]

« Generation Recession: How the Recession May Change America
“The party is over”
By Peter Boockvar - November 9th, 2011, 8:49AM
Whether it was a realization that Italian politics are sclerotic regardless who the PM is or LCH Clearnet raising margin requirements for those trading all Italian government bonds, Italian yields are spiking. The moment of truth for Italy is now here with their yields 2 yrs and out firmly above 7%. As the WSJ reported today, a board member of Enel, the major Italian oil company, said it best, “It’s time to tell the truth to Italians. No.1: The party is over.” The party he’s referring to is the current Italian welfare state as the same parties are getting shut down in other countries. The bright side of this is the bond market is forcing change that can no longer be ignored. Italy is a big, wealthy country and it is in their power to liberate their economy and cut spending. In China, Oct CPI rose 5.5% y/o/y, in line with expectations but at the slowest pace in 5 months. PPI rose 5%, below the estimate of 5.8%. Both Retail Sales and IP rose solidly but slightly below the forecasts. The Shanghai index did rally on the inflation moderation but it’s still unclear at what level will satisfy Chinese officials to get them to ease policy as inflation is still very elevated. In the US, refi’s rose 12.1% in response to a further drop in mortgage rates to 4.22%. Purchases rose for a 3rd week to a 3 month high by 4.8%. II: Bulls 44.2 v 43.2 Bears 34.7 v 36.8

[kryptos2009]

A2L, Thx for the start today !!

PPDT - 11/09/2011 Wednesday - PP-XLF = 13.52

Good Morning Gang!!

Here is the PP Daily Thread (PPDT) data.

XLF PP=13.52
MP=13.63 R1=13.74 MP=13.80 R2=13.86 MP=14.03 R3=14.20 MP=14.37 R4=14.54
MP=13.46 S1=13.40 MP=13.29 S2=13.18 MP=13.01 S3=12.84 MP=12.67 S4=12.50
O=13.49 H=13.65 L=13.31 C=13.61

FAS PP=14.68
MP=15.00 R1=15.32 MP=15.51 R2=15.70 MP=16.21 R3=16.72 MP=17.23 R4=17.74
MP=14.49 S1=14.30 MP=13.98 S2=13.66 MP=13.15 S3=12.64 MP=12.13 S4=11.62
O=14.55 H=15.06 L=14.04 C=14.94

FAZ PP=38.52
MP=39.04 R1=39.56 MP=40.46 R2=41.36 MP=42.78 R3=44.20 MP=45.62 R4=47.04
MP=37.62 S1=36.72 MP=36.20 S2=35.68 MP=34.26 S3=32.84 MP=31.42 S4=30.00
O=38.91 H=40.33 L=37.49 C=37.75

SPY PP=127.20
MP=127.95 R1=128.70 MP=129.11 R2=129.51 MP=130.67 R3=131.82 MP=132.98 R4=134.13
MP=126.80 S1=126.39 MP=125.64 S2=124.89 MP=123.74 S3=122.58 MP=121.43 S4=120.27
O=126.92 H=128.02 L=125.71 C=127.88

SPG PP=129.79
MP=131.01 R1=132.22 MP=132.93 R2=133.64 MP=135.57 R3=137.49 MP=139.42 R4=141.34
MP=129.08 S1=128.37 MP=127.16 S2=125.94 MP=124.02 S3=122.09 MP=120.17 S4=118.24
O=130.26 H=131.21 L=127.36 C=130.8

GS PP=108.01
MP=108.92 R1=109.83 MP=110.45 R2=111.07 MP=112.60 R3=114.13 MP=115.66 R4=117.19
MP=107.39 S1=106.77 MP=105.86 S2=104.95 MP=103.42 S3=101.89 MP=100.36 S4=98.83
O=106.41 H=109.26 L=106.2 C=108.58

JPM PP=34.74
MP=35.10 R1=35.46 MP=35.68 R2=35.90 MP=36.48 R3=37.06 MP=37.64 R4=38.22
MP=34.52 S1=34.30 MP=33.94 S2=33.58 MP=33.00 S3=32.42 MP=31.84 S4=31.26
O=34.53 H=35.18 L=34.02 C=35.02

MS PP=17.15
MP=17.35 R1=17.54 MP=17.66 R2=17.77 MP=18.08 R3=18.39 MP=18.70 R4=19.01
MP=17.04 S1=16.92 MP=16.73 S2=16.53 MP=16.22 S3=15.91 MP=15.60 S4=15.29
O=17.12 H=17.37 L=16.75 C=17.32

C PP=31.20
MP=31.49 R1=31.77 MP=31.95 R2=32.12 MP=32.58 R3=33.04 MP=33.50 R4=33.96
MP=31.03 S1=30.85 MP=30.57 S2=30.28 MP=29.82 S3=29.36 MP=28.90 S4=28.44
O=31.06 H=31.55 L=30.63 C=31.42

VIX PP=28.48
MP=28.99 R1=29.49 MP=30.50 R2=31.50 MP=33.01 R3=34.52 MP=36.03 R4=37.54
MP=27.48 S1=26.47 MP=25.97 S2=25.46 MP=23.95 S3=22.44 MP=20.93 S4=19.42
O=29.34 H=30.49 L=27.47 C=27.48

UUP PP=21.62
MP=21.65 R1=21.67 MP=21.71 R2=21.74 MP=21.80 R3=21.86 MP=21.92 R4=21.98
MP=21.59 S1=21.55 MP=21.53 S2=21.50 MP=21.44 S3=21.38 MP=21.32 S4=21.26
O=21.65 H=21.7 L=21.58 C=21.59

FROM: www.econoday.com

Economic Events & Analysis - 11/09/2011 Wednesday


7:00 AM ET MBA Purchase Applications
9:00 AM ET Ceridian-UCLA PCI
9:30 AM ET Ben Bernanke Speaks
10:00 AM ET Wholesale Trade
10:30 AM ET EIA Petroleum Status Report
12:15 PM ET Daniel Tarullo Speaks
1:00 PM ET 10-Yr Note Auction


Additional World wide Economic Calendar information can be found at the following website.
worldeconomiccalendar.com/

NOTE:
The previous days OHLC data for todays PPDT was gathered from finance.yahoo.com for each individual stock by a series of webquerys built into a spreadsheet.
The formulas used by the www.mypivots.com website to create the Pivot Points were found in the sites help files.
The formulas were built into the spreadsheet which acts on the previous days OHLC data gathered from Yahoo.
The Pivot Points were created using the formulas from www.mypivots.com but NOT by using the site.
Please let me know if you find any errors in the data.
Use of this data is at your own risk.

[Clinton SPX]

Peter Tchir of TF Market Advisors

When we were hitting 1100 the market was in deep fear mode. Investors were on the verge of panic. Default was on the tip of everyone's tongue. Now at 1250, we are all waiting patiently for some positive announcements. There is little (if any) fear out there.

I suspect LCH will retract some (if not all) of the margin hike on Italian debt. That should give a brief spike to the market. How much of this move is related to LCH's move is debatable, but if they go back to original margin requirements and bonds don't respond extremely well, then look out. I actually don't think bonds will do that well, because the damage has been done, and if the LCH reverts on margin, look for articles questioning how safe the LCH is. There is a reason they have these margin requirements - to protect the people who trade on the platform. If they cave, expect short term bounce, but longer term issues.

Some group will make some big announcement. The IMF or the EU will make some announcement of support and money. The market will rally on that too. I think though, that finally, the market will look for some substance. It can't just be an announcement of potential money, it has to be an announcement of real money immediately. Anything less is now likely to disappoint the market (since at 1250 we are not pricing in any real European problems). Italy is so big, and hit so suddenly, that printing money or massive ECB purchases seem the only way out.

With banks being "clever" on how they calculate their risk, look for further problems in the inter-bank lending market. More and more banks are going to have to go direct to the ECB for money, and I think US banks will continue to pull back lending to European banks (if they still have any lending left) as banking and politics have become too mingled in Europe to rely on traditional metrics or analysis of possible outcomes.

I got the individual investor report from someone - sentiment is decidedly bullish as the bull % continues to grow as the bear % continues to decrease. Again, the market (away from sovereign debt itself) seems much more comfortable that a bounce is on the way. It is almost scary how comfortable the market feels here, and I too fully expect a couple of catalysts for a bounce, but really think anything less than an onslaught of ECB purchases and money printing, will force the sell-off to resume.

While we focus on Europe, HSBC had bigger write-downs in the US. Also, HY17, the latest iteration of the HY CDX index had 1 default - Dynergy. Dynergy actually had a very high recovery rate as the reasons for the default are complex, so it isn't too bad. I do not think PMI has had a Credit Event yet, but that is only a matter of time.

ResCap is suddenly in the spotlight again.Remember that "bailed out" company, well, ALLY (also in the index) just hired an advisor to figure out what to do with ResCap. That seems to have caught the market a little bit by surprise. Eastman Kodak has improved (a bit) but is another possibility. So HY17, launched in September, has at least 2 defaults (out of 100 names) and may have 2 more fairly soon. That would be a 4% default rate. There is a lot of truth to the argument that companies have improved their balance sheets, but these are highly leveraged companies and the move to default can be quick. With the big move in markets, it is time to focus on specific credits. Ideas like selling 3 year protection on a name like McClatchy make sense - there could be some mark to market risk, but the company is in good shape, particularly to that maturity. But trades like that require some real analysis.

Just betting that the HY market as a whole is "cheap" here is dangerous. HYG and JNK are great, but they increase the correlation of bonds during times like this. As their shares outstanding increase, all the bonds in the index or that are possible eplacements rise with it. As we went from 80 to 85 on HYG, that made sense. Up here, I would want to be much more credit, and even bond specific. Italian 5 year bonds at 7.5% yield more than HYG (7.1%) and certainly have a lot more people trying to help them. I'm not sure I would put that trade on, but it may crowd out some investment in the high yield space, especially as we see some defaults rise. It is a credit pickers market here, not a broad asset class decision (particularly from the long side).

[ask2lern]

ukarlewitz
ukarlewitz $SPY two similarly large gap downs recently: 8/18 (5 days to fill) and 9/22 (3 days to fill). Pattern: lower close from open day 1
54 minutes ago via TweetDeck
Favorite Retweet Reply

[ask2lern]

by Cobra » Wed Nov 09, 2011 10:06 am

Huge gap down below yesterday's range, so chances are the gap won't be filled, especially we had a sharp intraday reversal for 3 days in a row, I think odds are much lower yet another intraday reversal.

Global ES is clearly a Rising Wedge breakdown. So much overlaps on the 2nd attempt to revisit the 10/27 highs, therefore still looks toppy to me even once again we manage another sharp intraday reversal and eventually tests the 10/27 highs, that'd be the 3rd leg up to on 60 min chart to test the previous high, 3 legs, guys, 3 legs just to test the previous high, can you believe that?

[Clinton SPX]

river theory alert

spy and JPM gapped under the 200ma10m
watch to see if they can confirm above

[Clinton SPX]

EU banks are only down about 5%
not so bad

[Rich]

I have to go to the grocery

to buy some broccoli

[Clinton SPX]

SPY at trend line support

[Rich]

I got it about 1237, 1230 needs to hold for sure.

[ask2lern]

Volume has slowed but 25% of yesterday in the first 30 min.......................GLTA

[Clinton SPX]

fundamentals for the euro really suck ATM
I was thinking of buying the lunch dip, but I wont now. Ill just watch

[Clinton SPX]

Rebel faction building in Merkels own party.

Open letter to members of the FDP
Ladies and Gentlemen,
We have read the request from Frank Schaeffler and others over which you will decide in the coming weeks. We consider the request for competent and responsible manner. Europe must not become a liability Union. Quite the contrary, the principles of the European treaties are observed again in the future. Focus of these agreements are the assistance prohibition and the prohibition of the monetization of government debt. Even if one thinks that the stability of financial markets is at risk, but it is obvious that not resolve violations of the law and breach of contract, the problem, but exacerbate it. We - 47 professors of economics - would recommend that you to support the application of Frank Schaeffler and others.
Sincerely
Dieter Bender, Charles B. Blankart, Manfred Borchert, Rolf Caesar, Dietrich Dickertmann, Juergen B. Donges, Norbert Eickhof, Mathias Erlei, Andreas Freytag, Egon Gorgens, Heinz Grosse Kettler, Gernot Gutmann, Gerd Habermann, Eberhard Hamer, Gerd Hansen, Stefan Homburg, Jörn Kruse, Hans Günter Krüsselberg, Uwe Lautner, Martin Leschke, Bernd Lucke, Helga Luckenbach, Hubertus Müller-Groeling, Hans H. Nachtkamp, ​​Peter Oberender, Hans-Georg Petersen, Rudolf Richter, Gerhard Rübel, Wolf Schäfer, Klaus- Werner Schatz, Horst Schellhaaß, Dieter Schmidtchen, Juergen Schroeder, Alfred Schüller, Hans-Werner Sinn, Peter Spahn, Joachim Starbatty, H. Jörg Thieme, Ulrich van Suntum, Roland Vaubel, Uwe Vollmer, Gerhard Wegner, Harald Wiese, Hans Willgerodt, Rainer Willeke, Manfred Willms, Rupert Windisch

[Clinton SPX]

And Now The Inventory Accumulation Miracle Is Over
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 11/09/2011 - 10:10
Gross Domestic Product Wholesale Inventories
Last week we pointed out that the export miracle leg-of-the-global-growth stool had been kicked out. Today , the second leg of the stool of main GDP drivers appears to be splintering as Wholesale Inventories dropped MoM for the first time since Dec10 (-0.1% vs +0.5% expectations). We patiently await LaVorgna's GDP downgrade...

[Clinton SPX]

DJ Italy Treasury Says Thur Bond Auction To Proceed As Scheduled (H)

[Clinton SPX]

that ought to trigger more selling LOL

[Clinton SPX]

German poll for permanent euro rescue mechanism


faz.net online Survey



9%
Yes
91%
No

very small sample though

[ask2lern]

by Cobra » Wed Nov 09, 2011 11:39 am

target. 80% chances. We need a president to resign today.

[ask2lern]

DynamicHedge Dynamic Hedge
Be on guard for 1:30 sell programs. Patterns are a mess today, but that's the one constant.
9 minutes ago Favorite Retweet Reply