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Post by natsalilfly on Apr 1, 2011 12:37:02 GMT -5
I have a friend who moved from S. Florida to the DC area and he reports the same thing, the DC bubble (which includes surrounding hamlets of course) never really gets disturbed, just redistributed each time there's an election. The REST of the country is scared shitless, and with good reason, they realize we are fcked. www.nytimes.com/2010/12/05/us/politics/05states.html?_r=1This is why we bought a franchise in Bethesda MD in 2007 - its steadily grown while our CA territories fell off. We just sold the Sac area, keeping TriValley (that's in East SF Bay, a major interstate crossroad runs through it)
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Post by dino on Apr 1, 2011 19:28:22 GMT -5
Other parts of Ohio - Cleveland, Akron, Canton = Still crappy. Ohio was in the top 3 in foreclosures in the country several years ago and Summit County (Akron) was tops in the state. Don't know where things stand now but it doesn't look like things are much better if they're better at all.
One thing's for sure though, and I don't care what anybody says, I'd be buying as many rental properties right now as I could if I had the time to invest in them. And if the housing market dropped another 20%, I'd buy more. Rents stay the same no matter what the house costs. So the cheaper the house, the bigger the margin. Much, much better returns than a rigged stock market.
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Post by brosin on Aug 4, 2011 11:48:15 GMT -5
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Post by Rich on Aug 4, 2011 11:51:39 GMT -5
yeah, it took a little longer than anticipated, but it is here now.
how dippy do you think bros?
Once the herd turns it's hard to get them to turn again.
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Post by brosin on Aug 4, 2011 12:42:53 GMT -5
Mark my words, the recession will have started w Japan crisis in mid March 2011 when the NBER finally gets all their data out
I'm really not sure about how dippy rich.. Really depends on where the mkt would have been w/o QE2 I think. And I don't know the answer. Still playing for a tradable or investable bounce around 1130/50 but depending on how strong and fast the bounce is, I'd be longer term shorting into it.
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Post by cosmic on Aug 4, 2011 21:06:38 GMT -5
I would say there's also a very close correlation in timing to the day Cisco broke March 2009 support and went below.
The canary coughed pretty hard that day.
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Post by brosin on Sept 30, 2011 20:50:14 GMT -5
So now here 6 months later, the market is just as "sure" we are headed for a recession as it was "sure" that we were not headed for a recession back then.
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Post by cosmic on Sept 30, 2011 21:18:21 GMT -5
I'd soften the contrarian rhetoric only so far as to say the Market is unsure - i.e. a VIX of 40+
The ECRI today made a formal announcement, but the ECRI is followed so closely that a month or two ago, people in the know would have forseen this.
What shocks me the most is ECRI's use of words like 'Recovery' which to me is a 35 year process... not something that stops 2.75 years later because of some ratings agencies that need to be slapped into the Delta Quadrant.
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yjfang
Broker/Dealer
Posts: 525
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Post by yjfang on Sept 30, 2011 21:23:12 GMT -5
Warren Buffett said that it was highly unlikely that we would be in a double dip recession. Mohammed El-Erian of Pimco commented on KNX am radio that he did not believe we would double dip - just that the growth would be so anemic that it feels like a double dip. He also said, if the Fed was to put out more QE program(s), that would change the market very quickly.
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Post by Clinton SPX on Sept 30, 2011 22:13:22 GMT -5
OK, the old time regulars know Ive been posting this for a long time now. Here goes for any new fastopians.
Most bubbles are symetrical in shape time and price.
The housing bubble took 8 years to build it will take 8 years to get over on average
The housing crash should be over around 2015
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Post by brosin on Oct 1, 2011 12:02:18 GMT -5
I'd soften the contrarian rhetoric only so far as to say the Market is unsure - i.e. a VIX of 40+ The ECRI today made a formal announcement, but the ECRI is followed so closely that a month or two ago, people in the know would have forseen this. What shocks me the most is ECRI's use of words like 'Recovery' which to me is a 35 year process... not something that stops 2.75 years later because of some ratings agencies that need to be slapped into the Delta Quadrant. Market is not unsure. Market is "sure." This was a month ago - I wonder if it's 9 out of 10 or 10 out of 10 now... politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2011/09/02/poll-8-in-10-think-were-in-a-recession/And it is just that skepticism that leads me to believe it might not happen
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Post by cosmic on Oct 1, 2011 23:48:55 GMT -5
Ok, but the poll may have been published 9/2 but the feelings it registers have been brewing since... Nixon?
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Post by puurfectten on Oct 2, 2011 0:41:20 GMT -5
lmao rich..that's the dreaded "double bubble put your butt cheeks up in the air cause her it comes".. formation... ...everything else aside...we should get 1010-1040 with a possible "panic" overshoot to 980...then the x-mas rally will not dissapoint to 1225... ..but has nothing to do with the real economy...we r screwed but we can make tons of $$ anyway... these are interesting times we live in...but this too will pass...
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