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Post by benvestor on Nov 9, 2010 17:52:44 GMT -5
I am stressing on this one.. maybe its just panic and will wear of shortly, but i need some input..
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Post by brosin on Nov 9, 2010 17:56:02 GMT -5
I have my gold/silver biases in place, but I still voted that it topped. A reversal on monster volume like that is not to be taken lightly I wouldn't think.
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Post by clemsontygr on Nov 9, 2010 19:04:56 GMT -5
Margin req. were increased...
This is only a pull back ....
Will be bought heavily again in the near future ;-)
(Your chance to buy the fear) ....
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Post by maxi on Nov 9, 2010 19:06:33 GMT -5
I pretty much agree with Clemson here. No way silver just quits right here.
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Post by brosin on Nov 9, 2010 19:19:04 GMT -5
I would just think that if something is up 56% in 2 months and then reverses 9% *intraday,* it seems like a big deal.
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Post by exabi on Nov 9, 2010 19:20:41 GMT -5
SLV up 2% AH
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Post by novice08 on Nov 9, 2010 19:24:11 GMT -5
It seems they usually manipulate the pms down and dollar up before & during G20/G7 meetings. But this can't last forever, can it, clemson? This could last another week, we'll see. They went short bigtime this morning.
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Post by brosin on Nov 9, 2010 19:26:33 GMT -5
Wow yeah you're right hadn't noticed that - hopefully my SLW buy at the close works out then. I was playing it for an early pop that I was hoping to sell and short into. Maybe it'll work out perfectly. In general, I just don't see the allure of chasing something up this high. |
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Post by walnut on Nov 9, 2010 19:29:28 GMT -5
It might already be coming back. The trashing of the dollar is the basis for the rise, and this is a multi-year event. Your grandchildren might be complaining about the inflation that is being created now.
But, what do I know?
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Post by clemsontygr on Nov 9, 2010 19:30:39 GMT -5
I agree with Brosin, Hammond and your concerns yesterday Novice. You three actually picked a short term top. :-) Cudo's
But like Maxi says, NO WAY all this fed destruction of the dollar is over. One week tops (if that).
We all know things don't move in a straight line. But I'm in for the long haul and these short term moves do not/will not phase me one bit....
;-)
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Post by clemsontygr on Nov 9, 2010 19:34:09 GMT -5
It might already be coming back. The trashing of the dollar is the basis for the rise, and this is a multi-year event. Your grandchildren might be complaining about the inflation that is being created now. But, what do I know? Another Wise man (or walnut) gold bug !! Exalt !! |
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Post by novice08 on Nov 9, 2010 20:01:04 GMT -5
I am stressing on this one.. maybe its just panic and will wear of shortly, but i need some input.. See the thread about margin requirements, too, ben. I go through this every time they manipulate, but have held some for over 18 mos. and have not been sorry. Now only trying to find out how to hold physical...carry trade can be an issue with the dollar. Also, in general, silver is more volatile than gold. gl and do not panic, this could last through Nov.  |
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Post by kbk3ck on Nov 9, 2010 20:13:47 GMT -5
I Vote Higher!!
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Post by kbk3ck on Nov 9, 2010 20:16:10 GMT -5
Hey Fucker, I didnt see a BUY NOW!!! choice.
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Post by jack on Nov 9, 2010 20:18:52 GMT -5
Hey Fucker, I didnt see a BUY NOW!!! choice. Wha? |
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Post by Rich on Nov 9, 2010 20:20:01 GMT -5
Hey Fucker, I didnt see a BUY NOW!!! choice. Wha? definition...ucker....one who ucks. |
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Post by brosin on Nov 9, 2010 20:24:13 GMT -5
Thinking through this a little more, ok where are we at? Let's take it step by step, trying to make zero assumptions.
(Feel free to add anything to these, although let's try to stick with facts for now)
-We *KNOW* that the Fed, the ECB, Chinese Central bank, etc etc etc are pumping fiat into their economies at a rapid rate.
-We *KNOW* that precious metal and commodity prices have gone up considerably over the past 20 months culminating in a major move over the past 2 months.
-We *KNOW* that volume over the past 2 months (and especially the last few market sessions) in precious metals has been much greater than average.
Those are the facts..
So then let's face the assumptions that this makes precious metals a (according to some claims, a "no brainer"-type) buy.
I question the notion that anything the Central Banks are doing changes the value of any one currency - monetary policy in general (as being used by all central banks and not just the Fed) is very loose right now... implying that money is being pumped in every day in all economies with all currencies. So I don't buy that the dollar should get crushed *any more than other currencies.* The degree may vary in that the dollar should get relatively weaker since the Fed has the loosest MP right now, granted. But that leads me to my next major point (bold).
Ok - so if I don't believe that the dollar is dramatically overvalued right now (if I think it's going to fall, I must think it's overvalued at current levels), what fundamentally explains the intense upward movement in precious metals? We are talking a truly unbelievable run in the short term. I do think it was understandable that the dollar got weaker since the Fed was pumping in more dollars than any other bank was pumping in their currency (not to mention politically - the US is spending a crapload of money and did so bailing everything out)... but
Even if I *were* to concede that the dollar is overvalued (I'm not) and set to continue dropping without fail, at what point is all this priced in? You're telling me that the big players who drive the market didn't see this all coming for the past 20 months? If a guy like me can recognize how much buying power is sitting in reserves waiting to come out, a big stock market / inflationary move was inevitable. Just because no one was talking about it doesn't mean that "the market" didn't already know and expect it. In fact, I could argue that the fact that no one was talking about it was why the market has roared so much higher so fast.
So now that *everyone* is talking about the Fed / QEII / Dollar Collapsing / Precious Metal buying / stock buying / hyperinflation... wouldn't you expect this to be the time to be selling? It's all priced in. Time to shake the tree and see who really sees what's going on. I don't think it's a matter of if we fall - I think it's a matter of how much.
That Warren Buffett guy is no idiot - "sell when others are greedy and buy when others are fearful."
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Post by kbk3ck on Nov 9, 2010 20:24:35 GMT -5
I went to vote but there wasnt a "Jump On It" button or a "Sell your House and Kids to Buy Now" button. Why? WTF?!?!?!?!
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Post by jack on Nov 9, 2010 20:29:01 GMT -5
I went to vote but there wasnt a "Jump On It" button or a "Sell your House and Kids to Buy Now" button. Why? WTF?!?!?!?! Remember: Yall wanna buy some gold or silver bullion A2L is your man....and he didn't pay me for offering this reco...much. ;D |
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Post by clemsontygr on Nov 9, 2010 20:32:57 GMT -5
I cannot argue your logic Brosin, because it is sound. However, when less than 5% of the public owning PHYSICAL. We are no where near a top. I point to my Bradley post as evidence. Something VERY big is on the horizon. I don't/won't pretend to know everything, because i don't. Yet, this is the BIG ONE.
Life changing or saving, imvho.
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Post by maxi on Nov 9, 2010 20:35:09 GMT -5
Thinking through this a little more, ok where are we at? Let's take it step by step, trying to make zero assumptions. (Feel free to add anything to these, although let's try to stick with facts for now) -We *KNOW* that the Fed, the ECB, Chinese Central bank, etc etc etc are pumping fiat into their economies at a rapid rate. -We *KNOW* that precious metal and commodity prices have gone up considerably over the past 20 months culminating in a major move over the past 2 months. -We *KNOW* that volume over the past 2 months (and especially the last few market sessions) in precious metals has been much greater than average. Those are the facts.. So then let's face the assumptions that this makes precious metals a (according to some claims, a "no brainer"-type) buy. I question the notion that anything the Central Banks are doing changes the value of any one currency - monetary policy in general (as being used by all central banks and not just the Fed) is very loose right now... implying that money is being pumped in every day in all economies with all currencies. So I don't buy that the dollar should get crushed *any more than other currencies.* The degree may vary in that the dollar should get relatively weaker since the Fed has the loosest MP right now, granted. But that leads me to my next major point (bold). Ok - so if I don't believe that the dollar is dramatically overvalued right now (if I think it's going to fall, I must think it's overvalued at current levels), what fundamentally explains the intense upward movement in precious metals? We are talking a truly unbelievable run in the short term. I do think it was understandable that the dollar got weaker since the Fed was pumping in more dollars than any other bank was pumping in their currency (not to mention politically - the US is spending a crapload of money and did so bailing everything out)... but Even if I *were* to concede that the dollar is overvalued (I'm not) and set to continue dropping without fail, at what point is all this priced in? You're telling me that the big players who drive the market didn't see this all coming for the past 20 months? If a guy like me can recognize how much buying power is sitting in reserves waiting to come out, a big stock market / inflationary move was inevitable. Just because no one was talking about it doesn't mean that "the market" didn't already know and expect it. In fact, I could argue that the fact that no one was talking about it was why the market has roared so much higher so fast. So now that *everyone* is talking about the Fed / QEII / Dollar Collapsing / Precious Metal buying / stock buying / hyperinflation... wouldn't you expect this to be the time to be selling? It's all priced in. Time to shake the tree and see who really sees what's going on. I don't think it's a matter of if we fall - I think it's a matter of how much. That Warren Buffett guy is no idiot - "sell when others are greedy and buy when others are fearful." Thank Brian. You know I love when you do these write ups... |
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Post by ccash04 on Nov 9, 2010 20:35:31 GMT -5
btw I don't know all these PM bears are so excited?? By the look of the futures, silver is already back to 27.65...
Need to see follow-thru on the moves before it becomes time to lighten up on positions.
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Post by kbk3ck on Nov 9, 2010 20:36:16 GMT -5
Oh, Ok Bros. I understand ur anxt. Now, just cool ur heels for a second and think about this.
What is every person on the planet hearing on their TVs or Radios all day-every day? "Buy Gold". " Its the only way to protect yourself".
EVERYbody is gona keep buying precious metals because they hear it ALL DAY EVERY DAY!!!! Buy Gold and Silver and any real comodity. Wheat, Sugar, Cotton, Gold, Ore of any kind, Oil, Grains, ......
You name it!!!
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Post by kbk3ck on Nov 9, 2010 20:37:25 GMT -5
Back to basics baby!!!
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Post by Rich on Nov 9, 2010 20:38:53 GMT -5
Just like 1979 Joe. My family was all into the gold thing back then too.
I could have cared less.
Unless a gold coin could buy a Ted Nugent 8 track tape.
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Post by brosin on Nov 9, 2010 20:40:29 GMT -5
btw I don't know all these PM bears are so excited?? By the look of the futures, silver is already back to 27.65... Need to see follow-thru on the moves before it becomes time to lighten up on positions. I bought SLW at the close as a scalp...  I'm just trying to challenge the overwhelming sentiment and hopefully make people either weaken or strengthen their arguments... Like Clemson for example just posted something that did ring true with me as something I didn't consider. If you can take my counter arguments and use them to strengthen your own counter view, isn't that what it's about? Show me a place where everyone agrees on something, and then show me how many truly good decisions are made. Groupthink is a big thing. |
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Post by kbk3ck on Nov 9, 2010 20:42:46 GMT -5
Good point Bros.
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Post by brosin on Nov 9, 2010 20:44:44 GMT -5
Oh, Ok Bros. I understand ur anxt. Now, just cool ur heels for a second and think about this. What is every person on the planet hearing on their TVs or Radios all day-every day? "Buy Gold". " Its the only way to protect yourself". EVERYbody is gona keep buying precious metals because they hear it ALL DAY EVERY DAY!!!! Buy Gold and Silver and any real comodity. Wheat, Sugar, Cotton, Gold, Ore of any kind, Oil, Grains, ...... You name it!!! Maybe we can check with Ask2Lern as to how busy he has been recently  , but I think that is already been happening Joe. *I want to make it clear that I think the stock market, gold/silver, pretty much everything is set to move much much higher in the coming few years. But I am worried that we might have to see a drop now that everyone is onto that. It's time to get everyone challenging that again and underallocated before the next move. It seems to me that people are leveraging up on things very fast because they have missed large portions of the move [I'm talking big time fund managers]. If that is true, these huge market moves in 2010 (we've seen 3 different >15% moves [2 up, 1 down] this year) are very quick bouts of leveraging met by quick bouts of deleveraging, most of the time with people on the wrong side. What side are people on right now? My "How Much of Your Account is Short" poll sure seemed to sum it up.* |
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Post by brosin on Nov 9, 2010 20:45:34 GMT -5
I cannot argue your logic Brosin, because it is sound. However, when less than 5% of the public owning PHYSICAL. We are no where near a top. Clem you always hit me with something I hadn't considered. Exalt |
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Post by novice08 on Nov 9, 2010 20:49:51 GMT -5
Hey, tygr, please bump your bradley thread...I and others need to read that and I'm unable to locate...Thanks...(exalt again!)
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, but I think that is already been happening Joe.