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Post by ccash04 on Jul 14, 2010 10:42:30 GMT -5
I agree its wise to start rolling positions or look towards August; however, day trading options on the Tuesday and Wednesday before OpEx tends to be my most profitable time of the month.
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Post by kryptos2009 on Jul 14, 2010 10:42:55 GMT -5
I don't think you should focus on July at this point at all, unless you're going to short puts into expiration. Cos, I have not used this strategy yet. What's the setup?
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Post by cosmic on Jul 14, 2010 10:45:08 GMT -5
Basically Kryp you look for OTM put strikes that still have value but look to expire worthless, and short them. The idea is to hold through expiration, where they expire worthless and you keep 100% of the premium, and since they're OTM there's no fill.
I don't generally do this, but that's the strategy. The danger of course is the market tanks and you fill.
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Post by abdogman on Jul 14, 2010 10:48:36 GMT -5
macd pos now on 1m for xlf fas faz xlf at 14.81 on 1m
****what caused the spike in GLD at appx 1103EDT???****
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Post by ukarlewitz on Jul 14, 2010 10:48:40 GMT -5
+1150 tick at 110 on Spy. Come on, a 7th day of new highs.
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Post by ccash04 on Jul 14, 2010 10:49:44 GMT -5
Another great one that works during earnings season is a calendar spread I just opened the GOOG 510 calendar spread, for $7. Premiums are kept high b/c of earnings tomorrow so sell the front month (higher vol. and buy the next month). Also, the short call is considered covered for margin purposes.
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Post by ukarlewitz on Jul 14, 2010 10:51:40 GMT -5
Despite the morning flush, breadth is pos on the day, esp for Nq vol which is pushing towards 3:1.
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Post by ukarlewitz on Jul 14, 2010 10:55:20 GMT -5
Drys chart - nice. Obvious R way up at 4.40 Uploaded with ImageShack.us
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Post by kryptos2009 on Jul 14, 2010 10:56:04 GMT -5
Basically Kryp you look for OTM put strikes that still have value but look to expire worthless, and short them. The idea is to hold through expiration, where they expire worthless and you keep 100% of the premium, and since they're OTM there's no fill. I don't generally do this, but that's the strategy. The danger of course is the market tanks and you fill. Looked at the following puts: FAS 21 @ 0.21 FAS 22 @ 0.38 FAS 23 @ 0.74 Doesn't seem worth the risk of tankage for the potential profit on 2/3 contracts...
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Post by abdogman on Jul 14, 2010 10:56:46 GMT -5
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Post by ukarlewitz on Jul 14, 2010 11:00:23 GMT -5
Dr Copper - long green candle in last 60'. One of those ridiculous h/s possible; needs to take out Friday high. In a very nice channel and this am was a bottom test, imo.
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Post by abdogman on Jul 14, 2010 11:00:53 GMT -5
Time for Dog(s) walk and lunch.......back appx 1400 ....
Good Luck All
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Post by jack on Jul 14, 2010 11:00:55 GMT -5
Topping tails 10min FAS
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Post by cosmic on Jul 14, 2010 11:08:09 GMT -5
Basically Kryp you look for OTM put strikes that still have value but look to expire worthless, and short them. The idea is to hold through expiration, where they expire worthless and you keep 100% of the premium, and since they're OTM there's no fill. I don't generally do this, but that's the strategy. The danger of course is the market tanks and you fill. Looked at the following puts: FAS 21 @ 0.21 FAS 22 @ 0.38 FAS 23 @ 0.74 Doesn't seem worth the risk of tankage for the potential profit on 2/3 contracts... Agreed - but as you can see I bet there's big volume on those strikes...
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Post by elle on Jul 14, 2010 11:34:10 GMT -5
I know probably mentioned other stocks, but iwm 61.8 from June high
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Post by ukarlewitz on Jul 14, 2010 11:55:33 GMT -5
Morning rally off the unusual low tick at -800. Another one right here at -900.
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Post by Dualism on Jul 14, 2010 12:03:32 GMT -5
30-Yr Bond Auction Released on 7/14/2010 1:00:00 PM For 7/14/2010 1:00:00 PM
Auction Results
Bid/Cover 2.89 Total Amount $13 B Yield Awarded 4.080%
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Post by cosmic on Jul 14, 2010 12:38:37 GMT -5
BTC a little low but still within limits
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Post by ukarlewitz on Jul 14, 2010 12:53:13 GMT -5
Bored. 109 (gap window) to 110 (multiple R) consolidation range. What we expected. Longer we hang out here, we work off oversold oscillators s-t. tick low -900 (here) and high noted at +1150.
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Post by elle on Jul 14, 2010 13:01:29 GMT -5
iwm h/s here
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Post by ukarlewitz on Jul 14, 2010 13:01:52 GMT -5
-1300 tick at 109.2
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Post by ccash04 on Jul 14, 2010 13:06:42 GMT -5
30-Yr Bond Auction Released on 7/14/2010 1:00:00 PM For 7/14/2010 1:00:00 PM Auction Results Bid/Cover 2.89 Total Amount $13 B Yield Awarded 4.080% Solid
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Post by ccash04 on Jul 14, 2010 13:07:26 GMT -5
So Fed downgrades outlook? That's the culprit?
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Post by abdogman on Jul 14, 2010 13:08:46 GMT -5
macd on 1m for xlf fas neg xlf 14.66 on 1m
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Post by Dualism on Jul 14, 2010 13:09:22 GMT -5
Today's FOMC minutes of the June 23-23 meeting show Fed District Bank presidents and Board governors downgrading their forecast for the economy slightly. However, they believe conditions do not warrant more accommodative monetary policy. The FOMC participants favor a gradual return to the pre-crisis status of the Fed's balance sheet with most saying sales of assets should be deferred for some time. All continue to see a moderate recovery continuing. However, productivity gains likely will keep unemployment relatively high.
For real GDP, the Fed's forecast for 2011 has been nudged down to a range of 3.0 to 3.5 percent versus 3.2 to 3.7 percent in April. The inflation forecast also has been tapped down.
Basically, the Fed sees the recovery continuing but a pace not as strong as previously believed. The minutes are consistent with what many economists already concluded. However, equities eased on the news.
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Post by jack on Jul 14, 2010 13:10:39 GMT -5
So Fed downgrades outlook? That's the culprit? LOL!!! I knew today was gonna be "Bitchin'!" but not quite in this way!!! LOL!!!
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Post by ccash04 on Jul 14, 2010 13:11:02 GMT -5
I've already downgraded my GDP estimates to 2.0%
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Post by jack on Jul 14, 2010 13:11:34 GMT -5
Wow...never seen VIX do that before on the 1min
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Post by abdogman on Jul 14, 2010 13:14:04 GMT -5
vix 5m has moved steadily up since 1250EDT
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Post by jack on Jul 14, 2010 13:15:40 GMT -5
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