PPDT - PP-XLF = 14.53 - 9/13 Monday

[kryptos2009]

Here is the PP Daily Thread (PPDT) data.


XLF PP=14.53
MP=14.56 R1=14.58 MP=14.61 R2=14.64 MP=14.69 R3=14.75 MP=14.80 R4=14.86
MP=14.50 S1=14.47 MP=14.45 S2=14.42 MP=14.36 S3=14.31 MP=14.25 S4=14.20
O=14.52 H=14.58 L=14.47 C=14.53

FAS PP=21.44
MP=21.56 R1=21.67 MP=21.79 R2=21.90 MP=22.13 R3=22.36 MP=22.59 R4=22.82
MP=21.33 S1=21.21 MP=21.10 S2=20.98 MP=20.75 S3=20.52 MP=20.29 S4=20.06
O=21.4 H=21.67 L=21.21 C=21.44

FAZ PP=13.65
MP=13.72 R1=13.78 MP=13.86 R2=13.94 MP=14.08 R3=14.23 MP=14.37 R4=14.52
MP=13.57 S1=13.49 MP=13.43 S2=13.36 MP=13.21 S3=13.07 MP=12.92 S4=12.78
O=13.7 H=13.8 L=13.51 C=13.63

SPY PP=111.32
MP=111.55 R1=111.77 MP=111.92 R2=112.06 MP=112.43 R3=112.80 MP=113.17 R4=113.54
MP=111.18 S1=111.03 MP=110.81 S2=110.58 MP=110.21 S3=109.84 MP=109.47 S4=109.10
O=111.12 H=111.61 L=110.87 C=111.48

SPG PP=94.58
MP=94.99 R1=95.39 MP=95.67 R2=95.94 MP=96.62 R3=97.30 MP=97.98 R4=98.66
MP=94.31 S1=94.03 MP=93.63 S2=93.22 MP=92.54 S3=91.86 MP=91.18 S4=90.50
O=94.63 H=95.12 L=93.76 C=94.85

GS PP=149.98
MP=150.57 R1=151.16 MP=151.54 R2=151.92 MP=152.89 R3=153.86 MP=154.83 R4=155.80
MP=149.60 S1=149.22 MP=148.63 S2=148.04 MP=147.07 S3=146.10 MP=145.13 S4=144.16
O=149.46 H=150.75 L=148.81 C=150.39

JPM PP=39.89
MP=40.01 R1=40.12 MP=40.30 R2=40.47 MP=40.76 R3=41.05 MP=41.34 R4=41.63
MP=39.72 S1=39.54 MP=39.43 S2=39.31 MP=39.02 S3=38.73 MP=38.44 S4=38.15
O=39.92 H=40.25 L=39.67 C=39.76

MS PP=27.10
MP=27.23 R1=27.36 MP=27.45 R2=27.53 MP=27.75 R3=27.96 MP=28.18 R4=28.39
MP=27.02 S1=26.93 MP=26.80 S2=26.67 MP=26.46 S3=26.24 MP=26.03 S4=25.81
O=27.03 H=27.27 L=26.84 C=27.19

C PP=3.92
MP=3.93 R1=3.93 MP=3.95 R2=3.96 MP=3.98 R3=4.00 MP=4.02 R4=4.04
MP=3.91 S1=3.89 MP=3.89 S2=3.88 MP=3.86 S3=3.84 MP=3.82 S4=3.80
O=3.92 H=3.94 L=3.9 C=3.91

VIX PP=22.21
MP=22.43 R1=22.65 MP=22.99 R2=23.32 MP=23.87 R3=24.43 MP=24.98 R4=25.54
MP=21.88 S1=21.54 MP=21.32 S2=21.10 MP=20.54 S3=19.99 MP=19.43 S4=18.88
O=22.64 H=22.87 L=21.76 C=21.99

UUP PP=23.98
MP=24.00 R1=24.02 MP=24.04 R2=24.05 MP=24.09 R3=24.12 MP=24.16 R4=24.19
MP=23.97 S1=23.95 MP=23.93 S2=23.91 MP=23.88 S3=23.84 MP=23.81 S4=23.77
O=23.99 H=24.02 L=23.95 C=23.98

FROM: www.econoday.com

Economic Events & Analysis - 9/13/2010 Monday


11:00 AM ET 4-Week Bill Announcement
11:30 AM ET 3-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET 6-Month Bill Auction

2:00 PM ET Treasury Budget

Released on 9/13/2010 2:00:00 PM For Aug, 2010
Prior Consensus Consensus Range
Treasury Budget - Level $-165.0 B $-95.0 B $-120.0 B to $-95.0 B

Market Consensus Before Announcement
The U.S. Treasury monthly budget report for July showed a deficit of $165.0 billion compared last July's $180.7 billion. The fiscal year-to-date deficit came in at $1.20 trillion vs. $1.42 trillion the same time last year. Tax receipts are coming up short of estimates but are being offset by Federal Reserve remittances, which are at a year-to-date $61 billion vs. $21 billion a year-ago. Looking ahead, the month of August typically shows a deficit for the month. Over the past 10 years, the average deficit for the month of August has been $71.1 billion and $89.6 billion over the past five years. The August 2009 shortfall came in at $103.6 billion.



Additional World wide Economic Calendar information can be found at the following website.
worldeconomiccalendar.com/


NOTE:
The previous days OHLC data for todays PPDT was gathered from finance.yahoo.com for each individual stock by a series of webquerys built into a spreadsheet.
The formulas used by the www.mypivots.com website to create the Pivot Points were found in the sites help files.
The formulas were built into the spreadsheet which acts on the previous days OHLC data gathered from Yahoo.
The Pivot Points were created using the formulas from www.mypivots.com but NOT by using the site.
Please let me know if you find any errors in the data.
Use of this data is at your own risk.

[ask2lern]

Thanks for the info Kryptos ……….Here are the pivots……….…hope everyone has a great day …………………GLTA


GOLD

R4 1295.03
midpoint 1286.73
R3 1278.43
midpoint 1270.13
R2 1261.83
Midpoint 1258.30
R1 1254.77
midpoint 1250.00

PP 1245.23

midpoint 1241.70
S1 1238.17
midpoint 1233.40
S2 1228.63
midpoint 1220.33
S3 1212.03
midpoint 1203.73
S4 1195.43

SILVER

R4 20.94
midpoint 20.77
R3 20.59
midpoint 20.42
R2 20.24
midpoint 20.16
R1 20.07
midpoint 19.98

PP 19.89

midpoint 19.81
S1 19.72
midpoint 19.63
S2 19.54
midpoint 19.37
S3 19.19
midpoint 19.02
S4 18.84

IMW

R3 64.86
R2 64.48
R1 64.10

PP 63.72

S1 63.34
S2 62.96
S3 62.53



TNA

R4 43.86
midpoint 43.17
R3 42.47
midpoint 41.78
R2 41.08
midpoint 40.73
R1 40.37
midpoint 40.03

PP 39.69

midpoint 39.34
S1 39.88
midpoint 38.64
S2 38.30
midpoint 37.61
S3 36.91
midpoint 36.22
S4 35.52

TZA

R4 35.31
Midpoint 34.74
R3 34.17
midpoint 33.60
R2 33.03
midpoint 32.75
R1 32.46
midpoint 32.18

PP 31.89

midpoint 31.61
S1 31.32
midpoint 31.04
S2 30.75
midpoint 30.18
S3 29.61
midpoint 29.04
S4 28.47

SDS

R3 32.11
R2 31.96
R1 31.70

PP 31.55

S1 31.29
S2 31.14
S3 30.88

………………………..GLTA

[ask2lern]

From http://www.optionmonster.com.............GLTA

NDX, SPX near resistance levels
September 13, 2010 Mon 12:28 AM CT


There are no major changes for levels today as Friday's trading failed to push the indexes through upside resistance. Changes below reflect shifts only in moving averages.

However, the move was just enough to push the Nasdaq 100 and the S&P 500 within a short distance to resistance levels that are nearly at the top of their multi-month ranges. The Russell 2000 is still stuck under its 200-day moving average, right in the middle of its range.

Given that the NDX and the SPX could break out, the following are the next levels above resistance noted on the table below: On a breakout above the 1896 area, next resistance for the Nasdaq 100 will be at 1918.78. That is very near its multi-month high of 1939.77.

If the S&P 500 breaks out above its resistance level, which is at the 200-day moving average, next resistance is near the very familiar 1130 area, at 1128.77.

Nasdaq 100 (NDX)

First support is at 1864.57, the 200-day moving average. First resistance is at 1896.71.

For the Nasdaq 100 Index Tracking Stock (QQQQ) first support is at $45.86. First resistance is at $46.72.

S&P 500 (SPX)

First support is at 1090.10. First resistance is at the 200-day moving average, last at 1115.63.

For the Standard & Poor's Depository Receipts (SPY) first support is at $108.61. First resistance is at $111.79.

Russell 2000 (RUT)

First support is at 628.18, the 50-day moving average. First resistance is at 645.52, the 200-day moving average.

For the iShares Trust Russell 2000 Index Fund (IWM) first support is at $62.83. First resistance is at $64.58.

By: Bryan McCormick

[ask2lern]

from http://www.optionmonster.com....................GLTA

Some surprises under NDX hood
September 13, 2010 Mon 12:52 AM CT


Last Wednesday I mentioned that I wanted to take a look underneath the hood of at least one of the indexes. The reason for doing so is to try to get a sense not of what the index is doing, but of the behavior of its component stocks.

While we have barely seen index values budge year to date, action in the underlying stocks has been anything but quiet.

The index I have chosen to look at is the Nasdaq 100. The weighting factors within the index make it abundantly clear as to why the index has behaved as it has.

First, the breadth statistics are revealing. The graphic at right is a histogram showing percent return distributions. Just half of the stocks in the Nasdaq 100 are positive on the year. That is not a bullish indication.


Uploaded with ImageShack.us
While on its face the index appears neutral, there is more to the story than that. If half the stocks are rising or falling, flat is just about what you would expect.

Digging deeper, we next look at the distribution of returns. This is a way of simplifying the way in which we look at the advances and declines. If they are more or less the same on the upside and the downside, that would explain the neutral appearance of the index, right? Not quite. Because the stocks in the index aren't all equally weighted, we need to filter on that basis as well.

When we analyze the weighting factors in the index, only 24 stocks are greater than or equal to 1 percent, leaving 76 names at less than 1 percent. That tells us right away that weighting is going to play a very important role in the index's value. It is definitely skewed.

The easiest way to then analyze the index is to look at those 24 top names. Why? Together they make up more than 64 percent of the total index weight. Apple by itself is more than 19 percent of the index.

As it turns out, only 13 of the 24 top stocks are positive on the year. And of those weighted by 1 percent or less, only 35 stocks are positive.

In the top five names--Apple, Qualcomm, Microsoft, Google, and Oracle--only two are positive: Apple and Oracle. Those five stocks are more than a third of the total index.

The green graph at right shows the return distribution just of the top 24 names. As we can see, the action in those names has been quite extreme with very wide swings in percent terms.


Uploaded with ImageShack.us
Looking still closer, we might think that the index should be doing very well because Apple is up more than 25 percent on the year. But, unfortunately, the next three names by weight that are negative on the year nearly completely wipe out that gain. While Apple is up more than 25 percent, Qualcomm is down nearly 13 percent, Microsoft is down more than 21 percent, and Google is down more than 22 percent.

It is only at the lower bounds of weights in the top 24 names that the index looks better. DirecTV, Baidu, Intuit, and Genzyme carry the load for bullish stocks, with Baidu the big winner at more than 104 percent higher. (That is the lone stock that is at the far right side of the chart.)

In short, there are very, very few big winners carrying almost all of the index's load. As we are near the top of the trading range, it becomes clearer why the NDX has had such a difficult time breaking out.

Many of the names that are performing best are already very stretched as far as potential price appreciation is likely to go in the near term. Unless breadth improves dramatically, the index may well stay that way.

(Charts courtesy of DeepFoo Analytics)

By: Bryan McCormick

[jack]

Sold my FAS in the Pre Mkt for a couple pair of sneakers ;D

[brosin]

Thanks Kryptos and Ask for the info, morning all. I will get us some reading here. I went to bed super early last night with the hopes of getting this done before leaving for work. Running a little later than I wanted, but I have a few minutes here.

[brosin]

Courtesy of Brian Shannon at Alphatrends




Caldaro: Yesterday the FED issued the following press release: www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/bcreg/20100912a.htm. The Asian markets were all higher overnight. European markets opened higher and closed +0.95%. US index futures gapped up at the start of trading last night and remained higher overnight. At the open the SPX gapped up to 1018 and continued to rally until about 11:00 when it hit 1124. The SPX had closed at 1110 on friday. After hitting an extremely overbought short term condition the market started to pullback. Around 12:30 the SPX hit 1116 and tried to rally again. At 2:00 the Budget deficit was reported a bit better than expected: -$90.5 bln v -$103.6 bln. Nearing the close the SPX hit 1123 and then closed at 1122.

For the day the SPX/DOW were +0.95%, and the NDX/NAZ were +1.75%. Bonds gained 16 ticks, Crude added 70 cents, Gold slipped $1.00, and the USD was lower. Support for the SPX remains at 1107 and then 1090, with resistance at 1136 and then 1146. Short term momentum was extremely overbought this morning and then began to ease back. Tomorrow, Retail sales at 8:30, then Business inventories at 10:00.

Markets rallied overnight after the Basel III Accord spread out implementation of bank capital requirements over the decade. Most Asian markets rallied over 2%, Western markets were not as robust. The gap up today took the SPX out of the range of the OEW 1107 pivot. It had closed, within range and just above that pivot on friday. This pivot should now provide support. Today's rally also extended this Minor wave 1, which has had only a 14 point pullback, from the late August SPX 1040 low. The KBE and SOX sectors, which have concerned us lately, both rallied in the neighborhood of 3%. With four upside gaps in the past 8 trading days this rally is starting to look like an Intermediate wave three. Short term momentum has remained overbought, which is typically a sign of underlying buying pressure. The last time the market was oversold was at the SPX 1040 low. The OEW 1136 pivot may be a tough one to crack on the next go around. It has been resistance since June. This rally, however, has had a tendency to gap over pivots at the open. It took out the 1058 pivot with a gap up on Sept. 1st, the 1090 pivot with a gap up on Sept 3rd, and today the 1107 pivot with a gap up as well. No overbought extremes on the daily RSI yet, but we're getting close. The swing pivot at 1090 remains important.



Cobra: The bottom line, the short-term trend is up and I hold partial long position overnight since the mini price target hasn’t met, not because it’s safe to hold overnight. A slightly bearish biased toward tomorrow because when SPX is up for 4 days in a row, short at today’s close and cover at the very first red day, since year 2000, you have 70% chances to win.

I still expect a short-term pullback because all the top signals listed in 09/10 Market Recap are still valid. However, unless something terrible happens unexpected otherwise the market most likely may up or at least consolidate for a few days before actually pulling back. The reason is still, a strong up momentum like what the market shown today won’t be reversed all of sudden, a fading process (which could be a series of small up or down consolidation days) is generally needed if we’re still on earth. Trading wise, it’s simple, first of all, short is for aggressive traders only because so far the intermediate-term trend is up. Secondly, if you really really want to short, a general pattern is to wait for the breakdown of the trend line then a failed back test of the bull extremes as shown in chart below. For now, the trend line is still intact so the risk is very high to short now.

What worth to blah blah today is that COMPQ formed 5 unfilled gaps within 8 trading days. The similar case happened only during the 2009 Santa Rally, see 12/24/2009 Market Recap, when COMPQ formed 5 consecutive unfilled gaps within 6 trading days. The chart below illustrates what happened thereafter. Well, for your info only, I have no intension to imply that we’re going to repeat exactly the same this time. Another stuff worth blah blah is SPX was up 1.1% while TNX down 1.9% on the same day, which looks very bearish since TNX usually leads. However back test since year 2000 doesn’t show any bearish edges so this shouldn’t be the reason to be bearish.



Bespoke
The Monday Bull Market Resumes
Today's 0.9% gap higher in the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) highlights once again how Monday has been the friendliest day for the bulls. Since the start of the year, today's positive gap marks the 11th time the index has gapped higher by at least 0.5% to start the week. Looking at the equity market's performance for the rest of the day and the rest of the week shows a mixed picture. As shown below, the average return from the open to close on the first day of the week is 0.01% with positive returns six out of ten times. For the rest of the week, the average return is even less decisive. From the opening print at the start of the week to the closing bell at the end of the week, SPY has seen an average change of 0.00% with positive returns six out of ten times.


Emerging Markets Shine
While nearly all global equities have rallied in the last few weeks, emerging markets have shined even brighter. The chart below shows the relative strength of the the MSCI Emerging Market ETF (EEM) compared to the S&P 500 ETF (SPY). In the chart, a rising line indicates emerging markets are outperforming while a falling line indicates underperformance.

Given the concerns over sovereign debt this year, coupled with the fact that emerging markets have little in the way of it, makes the fact that this sector has outperformed seem obvious. However, this hasn't always been the case. As shown in the chart below, emerging markets underperformed the S&P 500 during the first half of 2010, even as the debt worries were at their highest. In late May, we noted this anamoly, and suggested in a report that emerging market stocks were the baby being thrown out with the bathwater (Barron's picked up the report the following weekend). Since then, it appears as though cooler heads have prevailed as emerging markets have outperfomred handily. Since the end of May, SPY has risen by a respectable 3.23%. Over that same period, though, EEM is up nearly 14%.

[jack]

Sept 13, 2010 8:05:47 GMT -5 brosin said:

Thanks Kryptos and Ask for the info, morning all. I will get us some reading here. I went to bed super early last night with the hopes of getting this done before leaving for work. Running a little later than I wanted, but I have a few minutes here.

There's only one good reason I can think of for going to bed early ;D

[jack]

$USD favoring a very bullish open ("Doh" or shall I say "Dough!")

[brosin]

Sept 13, 2010 8:22:11 GMT -5 jack said:

Sept 13, 2010 8:05:47 GMT -5 brosin said:

Thanks Kryptos and Ask for the info, morning all. I will get us some reading here. I went to bed super early last night with the hopes of getting this done before leaving for work. Running a little later than I wanted, but I have a few minutes here.

There's only one reason I can think of for going to bed early ;D

;D I suppose it depends how specific we are talking here

[abdogman]

Good Morning Gang........kryptos and ask and bros and jack

thx for info

its open oh no

[abdogman]

xlf 14.79 on 1m

[abdogman]

xlf 14.85 on 1m

[abdogman]

xlf on 1m leveled off at R4 of 14.86 it is just below that now
macd rolling over to near 0/0 1m for xlf fas

[jack]

Sept 13, 2010 8:43:43 GMT -5 abdogman said:

xlf on 1m leveled off at R4 of 14.86 it is just below that now
macd rolling over to near 0/0 1m for xlf fas

$USD gaining now

[abdogman]

BB'S narrowing slowly on 1m xlf fas faz
macd barely neg on 1m for xlf fas
xlf 14.85 on 1m

[jack]

Topping FAStail on the 10m?

Actually a doji...

[abdogman]

BB's tight on 1m xlf fas faz
xlf 14.84 on 1m

[jack]

On my next FAS entry I'd like to make an informed decision on my entry:

SOMEONE for heaven's sake tell me when to BUY!!!

;D

[jack]

Parabolic formed above the SPY's 5min

[abdogman]

xlf on 1m sideways and 14.84

[jack]

Sept 13, 2010 9:02:29 GMT -5 jack said:

Parabolic formed above the SPY's 5min

Parabolic taken out like a hooker on a friday nite after payday.

(NOT that I'd know anything about that mind you...)

[jack]

BBs tightening on...EVERYTHING (except FAS)

[abdogman]

Bb's have spread some macd just went pos for xlf fas
xlf 14.87 on 1m

[jack]

SPY macd appears to be headed positive...OBV >80...VIX heading down...$USD too

XLFs macd's neg at the moment tho (on the 5min)

[brosin]

Sept 13, 2010 9:01:42 GMT -5 jack said:

On my next FAS entry I'd like to make an informed decision on my entry:

SOMEONE for heaven's sake tell me when to BUY!!!

;D

lol that's why I try to buy on the way down, I'm the worst at trying to time entries

[jack]

Sept 13, 2010 9:35:03 GMT -5 brosin said:

Sept 13, 2010 9:01:42 GMT -5 jack said:

On my next FAS entry I'd like to make an informed decision on my entry:

SOMEONE for heaven's sake tell me when to BUY!!!

;D

lol that's why I try to buy on the way down, I'm the worst at trying to time entries

Entries, exits...even when I'm not even in: my timing sucks (but at least my dog loves me.)

;D

[drtracyb]

Sept 13, 2010 9:01:42 GMT -5 jack said:

On my next FAS entry I'd like to make an informed decision on my entry:

SOMEONE for heaven's sake tell me when to BUY!!!

;D

Me, too!

[abdogman]

BB's narrowing on 1m xlf fas faz
macd neg on 1m xlf fas
xlf 14.86 on 1m

[jack]

Sept 13, 2010 9:45:43 GMT -5 abdogman said:

BB's narrowing on 1m xlf fas faz
macd neg on 1m xlf fas
xlf 14.86 on 1m

Macd neg on the FAS 5min too but $USD crapping as well as the VIX