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Post by abdogman on Sept 8, 2010 9:32:15 GMT -5
BB's narrow now on eur/usd and uup on 1m xlf 14.37 macd on 1m xlf fas just crossing positive
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Post by abdogman on Sept 8, 2010 9:39:49 GMT -5
xlf 14.38 on 1m BB's wider but not spreading fast
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Post by jack on Sept 8, 2010 9:41:37 GMT -5
FAS doodling around the 50MA on the 10min chart FAS above its 50MA w/ conviction (right now its bringing out its inner USMC).
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Post by ccash04 on Sept 8, 2010 9:44:18 GMT -5
wow MOS broke thru 60 now b/t it.
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Post by jack on Sept 8, 2010 9:44:56 GMT -5
SPY also riding the top of its BB on the 5min
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Post by ccash04 on Sept 8, 2010 9:45:30 GMT -5
It would be nice to APKT go parabolic
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Post by brosin on Sept 8, 2010 9:46:44 GMT -5
Here is some daily reading for whenever it gets a little slow: Courtesy of Brian Shannon at AlphatrendsCaldaro market pulls back after holiday, DOW -107 Overnight the Asian markets were mixed. Europe opened lower and closed -0.60%. US index futures were lower overnight. At the open the SPX gapped down to 1100 and started heading lower. That was the high for the day. The SPX had closed at 1105 on friday. Around 10:30 the SPX hit 1093, still within the OEW 1090 pivot range, and then tried to rally. For the next several hours the market traded in a four point range, despite a big rally in the USD and a rally in Bonds. At 2:00 the FED made the following press release: www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/monetary/20100907a.htm. Heading into the close the SPX made a lower low at 1091 and closed at 1092. For the day the SPX/DOW were -1.10%, and the NDX/NAZ were -0.90%. Bonds gained 27 ticks, Crude slid 85 cents, Gold added $6.00, and the USD was higher. Support for the SPX remains at 1090 and then 1058, with resistance at 1107 and then 1136. Short term momentum hit extremely overbought on friday and headed lower for most of the day. Tomorrow, the FED's Beige book at 2:00, then Consumer credit at 3:00. Today's activity would appear to be quite normal after the three day surge last week. The market did get extremely overbought on friday and momentum tailed off for the rest of that day. Today's pullback puts the SPX at the swing support pivot of 1090. This pivot has been 'key' for several months now. Holding support at this pivot the market has the opportunity to break out of this multi-month trading range, to the upside. Failing to hold would give the market another opportunity to create a downtrend. It certainly has been a choppy market. On another asset front, Gold/Silver appear to be clearing up their longer term wave count. We updated their charts to day.
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Post by brosin on Sept 8, 2010 9:47:44 GMT -5
Cobra: The bottom line, the short-term trend is up but I hold no position overnight as I see very strange, well, scary to me, things today: The CPCI (index put call ratio) skyrocketed high. To me (I don’t care if it’s a single trade or a data error or a couple of months later put which could be bullish, etc etc), this means something is going on, those big guys bought huge put to hedge their current positions, who always know something ahead of us retailers. So be careful here! A few top signs I see today, could mean either short-term or intermediate-term top. However if you’ve paid attention to my TICK MA(3) chart mentioned recently, the pullback today was expected. And if we saw a day or two sharp sell off thereafter, still it’s expected. So I’ll maintain the 3 leg up forecast for the intermediate-term. The main reason, still is a strong up momentum like we saw in the past few days won’t simply be reversed immediately unless something terribly terrible happens. I’ve mentioned what the most worried me today in the After Bell Quick Summary: CPCI closed at an extremely high level which usually means big guys knew something ahead of our retailers therefore they bought a lot put to hedge their long positions. Well, I know you’d ask then what’s in the mind of the other big guys who sold such large put positions? Well, I don’t know and don’t care, the chart below should clear what CPCI very high means to us recently.
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Post by abdogman on Sept 8, 2010 9:49:04 GMT -5
BB's tighter on eur/usd macd neg last 3 mins on 1m for xlf fas xlf 14.38 on 1m
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Post by brosin on Sept 8, 2010 9:49:50 GMT -5
Bespoke:Has a TON here. Bear with me. Good stuff. 2010 Country Stock Market Performance Below we highlight the year to date performance of the major stock market indices for 82 countries around the world. The average year to date change for all 82 countries is 5.39%, while the median change is 2.23%. The S&P 500's year to date change of -1.24% is obviously below both of these. The US currently ranks 53rd out of 82 in terms of 2010 performance. At the top of the list is Sri Lanka with a 2010 gain of 73.69%. Bangladesh ranks second at 49.37%, followed by Estonia (41.94%), Ukraine (40.86%), and Latvia (40.26%). India has been the best performing BRIC country so far this year with a gain of 4.33%. Russia ranks second at 1.42%, Brazil ranks third at -2.43%, and China is down the most at -18.97%. Canada is currently the top G7 country with a gain of 3.26%. Germany and Britain are the other two G7 countries that are up year to date, while Japan is the G7 country that is down the most year to date (-13.58%). Overall, Bermuda has seen the biggest losses this year with a decline of 38.25%. Greece is the second worst at -24.56%.
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Post by brosin on Sept 8, 2010 9:51:07 GMT -5
More from Bespoke: Rally WinnersThe S&P 500 is up a little more than 5% over the last 3 days. Below we highlight how the index's ten major sectors have performed since the start of September, along with sector performance during the prior pullback from 8/9 to 8/31. Unsurprisingly, the sectors that were down the most during the pullback are up the most during the rally. Industrials, Financials, and Technology got hit the hardest in the back half of August, and they have bounced quite a bit this week. Consumer Discretionary is the one sector that outperformed (slightly) during the pullback and is also outperforming over the last three days. The defensives -- Consumer Staples, Utilities, and Telecom -- all held up well as the market fell in August, but they're only up modestly on the bounce. The same holds true on an individual stock basis. Below we have broken the S&P 500 into deciles (ten groups of 50 stocks) based on stock performance during the pullback from 8/9 to 8/31. As shown, the 50 stocks that held up the best during the pullback are only up an average of 2.7% since the start of September. The 50 worst performing stocks from 8/9 to 8/31 are up an average of 9.4% since 9/1. Below are the 30 stocks that have done the best over the last three days. As shown, Office Depot (ODP) is up the most with a gain of 17.60%, followed by Nordstrom (15.18%), Jabil Circuit (14.44%), and E*Trade Financial (14.15%). Other notables on the list of winners include SanDisk (SNDK), Harley Davidson (HOG), Monster Worldwide (MWW), Amazon.com (AMZN), and Broadcom (BRCM).
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Post by brosin on Sept 8, 2010 9:52:25 GMT -5
More from Bespoke (fun with Politics!) 595 Days Into Obama's Presidency[/url] President Obama has been taking heat from all sides lately on his handling of the economy, and the Democrats now appear to be in jeopardy of losing their majorities in both the House and Senate after the November elections. Instead of trying to defend their handling of the economy, maybe the Obama administration should be pushing the performance of the stock market since he took office in January 2009. Regardless of how or why it has done what it has done (we're not looking to get into a political debate here), the Dow has done well since Obama took office. Through last Friday (595 days since the close before Inauguration Day), the Dow was up 26.16%. Since 1900, Obama ranks fifth in terms of stock market performance at this point in the first term of a Presidency, handily beating the average Dow performance of 8.87% 595 days in. The Dow was down 20.4% at this point in Obama's predecessor's first term, while it was up about 20% at this point in Clinton's first term. Ford, Coolidge, Harding, and FDR are the Presidents that rank ahead of Obama in this regards, with FDR way on top with a Dow gain of 76.26% from 3/4/1933 to 10/19/1934. Again, we could all debate forever on why the market has done what it has done in recent years, but from a pure numbers standpoint, the stock market is up about 26% since Obama took office. If we all sent ourselves back to early 2009 and were asked if we would take +26% by September 2010, most of us would probably accept.
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Post by brosin on Sept 8, 2010 9:54:09 GMT -5
And lastly (told you I love this site - there was more I could've put lol) *NOTE: X (US STEEL) IS 12TH ON THIS LIST - GOOD FOR ME BECAUSE IN MY BLOG I TRACK IT AS MY 'HOW ARE THE SHORTS DOING?' INDICATOR.* Stocks with the Highest Short Interest[/url] Below is a list of the stocks in the Russell 1,000 with the highest short interest as a percentage of float (SIPF). For each stock we also provide its year-to-date change as well as its change since the start of the month. Generally when the market is rising, the most heavily shorted stocks outperform, and we've seen that so far this month as well. In the Russell 1,000, AutoNation (AN) has the highest short interest as a percentage of float at 40.74%. With a gain of 25%, AN has hit the shorts pretty hard year to date. Alliance Data Systems (ADS) and MGM Resorts (MGM) rank second and third in terms of short interest and are the only other names with SIPF above 30%. SunPower (SPWRA) and Sears Holdings (SHLD) round out the top five with SIPF of 27.65% and 26.05% respectively. Netflix (NFLX), MBIA (MBI), and Las Vegas Sands (LVS) are all on the list as well, and the shorts have gotten killed in these names this year. All are up more than 100% year to date. Shorts have had a field day this year with SunPower (down 52%), Comstock (down 48%), and ITT Education (down 43.7%). Some other notable names on the list include Green Mountain Coffee (GMCR), US Steel (X), First Solar (FSLR), Jefferies (JEF), AIG, Newell Rubermaid (NWL), and Garmin (GRMN).
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Post by brosin on Sept 8, 2010 9:56:41 GMT -5
Then the other site I love. Barry Ritholtz's Big Picture: (*I'm going to post some in here, but the longer ones in the regular FME for everyone*)
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Post by abdogman on Sept 8, 2010 9:57:06 GMT -5
BB's tight xlf fas faz on 1m xlf 14.39 on 1m macd coming around toward 0/0 on 1m xlf fas faz
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Post by brosin on Sept 8, 2010 9:58:34 GMT -5
Lehman: Doomed By Short Term FundingAmongst the items coming out of the FCIC hearings last week were new docs that revealed exactly how over-reliant LEH was on daily, short term funding to cover their longer terms costs. It was a recipe for disaster, a trailer park in search of a tornado. Here is the WSJ: “In looking last week at Lehman’s demise, the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission produced testimony and documents that suggest the firm’s short-term funding was a serious problem well before its Sept. 15, 2008 crash. The new Lehman material is a brutal reminder of the flightiness of short-term debt. And it begs the question: Why didn’t Dodd-Frank do more to limit banks’ use of things like repo markets, in which banks take out short-term collateralized loans? It was in the repo market that Lehman experienced stress from early 2008. J.P. Morgan Chase, which plays a central role in the “triparty” repo market, decided to introduce a reform in early 2008 aimed at making the market safer. The firm decided that borrowers would have to start providing collateral that slightly exceeded the intraday amounts it had advanced them. This extra collateral is called margin. When discussing the change, a Lehman executive called it “a problem,” in a February 2008 email contained in FCIC documents.” There are many other factors that the FinReform did not address — I have a post coming up on that for the anniversary of LEH’s demise. What has always mattered most to financial firms are base capital amounts and leverage. Plunging headlong into both residential and CRE funding in a mad dash for profits led to firm’s having too little of the former and too much of the latter. That, in the simplest of terms, is why Lehman died. Everything else written about the deceased is merely noise . . . >
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Post by brosin on Sept 8, 2010 9:59:42 GMT -5
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Post by brosin on Sept 8, 2010 10:00:45 GMT -5
Government-Bond Yield GapDhaval Joshi is clearly in the deflation camp. Bloomberg’s Chart of the Day references his recent RAB Capital sovereign debt commentary as suggesting bond yields are set to “massively collapse.” Here’s an excerpt: “Yields on U.S. and U.K. government bonds have room to “decline massively” if history is a guide, according to Dhaval Joshi, chief strategist at RAB Capital Plc. The CHART OF THE DAY displays the differential between yields on 20-year debt and benchmark interest rates in the two countries, according to data compiled by the Federal Reserve and Bloomberg. Joshi made similar comparisons in a Sept. 3 report. “Interest rates cannot go up meaningfully for a very long time” in either country, the report said. U.S. Treasury yields have yet to fall far enough relative to the Fed’s target rate for loans between banks to reflect this prospect, he wrote. The same holds true for yields on U.K. gilts by comparison with the Bank of England’s base rate, in his view.” I haven’t gone that far — but I suspect the fear trade into bonds will end badly.
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Post by abdogman on Sept 8, 2010 10:06:14 GMT -5
xlf 14.41 on 1m BB's spreading xlf fas riding the top BB macd pos now on 1m xlf fas eur/usd and uup bb's spreading also ........eur moves up ....uup moves down
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Post by ccash04 on Sept 8, 2010 10:07:24 GMT -5
It would be nice to APKT go parabolic Wishes do come true! hurray! ;D
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Post by abdogman on Sept 8, 2010 10:23:22 GMT -5
xlf 14.39 on 1m macd neg
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Post by abdogman on Sept 8, 2010 10:25:17 GMT -5
BB's on 1m uup and vix narrowing to tight
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Post by abdogman on Sept 8, 2010 10:33:51 GMT -5
BB's narrowing on 1m xlf fas faz xlf 14.395 on 1m macd 0/0 on 1m xlf fas faz
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Post by Rich on Sept 8, 2010 10:37:31 GMT -5
I see a flag on the 5 min SPX.
You sure 1102 is all we got, Snap?
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Post by abdogman on Sept 8, 2010 10:41:18 GMT -5
macd neg now on 1m xlf fas xlf 14.385 on 1m BB's spreading on eur/usd it is dropping some
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Post by brosin on Sept 8, 2010 10:44:39 GMT -5
I see a flag on the 5 min SPX. You sure 1102 is all we got, Snap? 1102 is all we got? Maybe today. But tomorrow's another day! ;D
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Post by ask2lern on Sept 8, 2010 10:46:15 GMT -5
Just wanted to say hi...............sold my 107 PUts Friday am for a big loss .............. enjoyed a nice weekend in my repaired boat ............... catching up at the office............should be back to normal tomorrow...............great info everyone..............GL
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Post by sp7015 on Sept 8, 2010 10:50:10 GMT -5
Huge green volume spike on aapl 1 min chart. 121.7K vs 9K that has been trading.
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Post by abdogman on Sept 8, 2010 10:52:04 GMT -5
time for Dogs and lunch back by 1355EDT.......Good Luck Gang!!!
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Post by sp7015 on Sept 8, 2010 10:53:43 GMT -5
AAPL chart. Trading the box. Top of blue box is at $266. Uploaded with ImageShack.us
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