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Post by brosin on Aug 31, 2010 1:05:06 GMT -5
Courtesy of Brian Shannon at Alpha TrendsI'm putting Bespoke first tonight because I found this significant - they seem to have a few more voters than we do ;D (I was one of the 36% ) Bespoke: Dow 9,000 or Dow 11,000?What level will the Dow reach first? Selection Votes 9,000 64% 414 11,000 36% 230 644 votes total State Default RiskBelow is a chart highlighting default risk for sixteen states that we have credit default swap (CDS) pricing for. The number next to each state represents the cost per year to insure $10,000 worth of state bonds for 5 years. The higher the price, the higher the default risk. As shown, Illinois has the highest default risk of all states at 303.2 bps -- even higher than California. California ranks 2nd, followed by Michigan, New York, and New Jersey. Not to anyone's surprise, these are basically the five states in the country with the biggest fiscal problems at the moment. States that appear to be in pretty good shape include Texas, Virginia, Maryland, and Delaware. Caldaro: SHORT TERM: no upside follow through, DOW -141 Overnight the Asian markets were all higher. Europe opened higher but closed -0.65%. US index futures were initially higher overnight and then turned lower. At 8:30 Personal income was reported higher: +0.2% v 0.0%, Personal spending was higher: +0.4% v 0.0%, and PCE prices nudged higher +0.1% v 0.0%. The market opened lower at SPX 1061, then traded up to 1064 by 10:00. That was the high for the day. The SPX had closed at 1065 on friday. The market then started to pullback in a quiet controlled fashion. The pullback continued throughout with only 3 or 4 point bounces, and the SPX closed near the lows at 1049. For the day the SPX/DOW were -1.45%, and the NDX/NAZ were -1.65%. Bonds gained 32 ticks, Crude dropped 90 cents, Gold added $1.00, and the USD was higher. Support for the SPX drops to 1041 and then 1032, with resistance at 1058 and then 1090. Short term momentum declined from friday's overbought, and hit oversold at the close. Tomorrow, Case-Shiller home prices at 9:00, the Chicago PMI and Consumer sentiment around 10:00, then the FOMC minutes at 2:00. The market opened to the downside today, tried to rally, then broke through the neutral hourly RSI level. Was expecting this RSI level to hold if the market was going to continue friday's double bottom SPX 1040 rally. Later in the day the SPX broke through the 1058 pivot range as well. Short term OEW charts have turned negative again and it appears the path of least resistance for this market is lower. The DOW alternate ABC Primary wave II count continues to rise in probability. Cobra: The bottom line, the short-term trend is down and I hold no position overnight. One trick for tomorrow, when NYSE Down Volume : NYSE Up Volume >= 9 (Major Distribution Day), 32 out 50 times (64%) a green day the next. Noticed that the trick didn’t work well recently, so be careful. I searched as far as to year 2000, there wasn’t a case like we have now – A Major Accumulation Day (NYSE Up Volume : NYSE Down Volume >= 9) followed by a Major Distribution Day (NYSE Down Volume : NYSE Up Volume >= 9) back to back. So apparently we’re now in no man’s land. The consequences? Well, I wish I could know. The only thing I’m sure is tomorrow will be a key day as bulls need a green day to avoid a bad sign that worked 8 out of 8 times recently. Nothing to say today except a green day tomorrow is necessary to avoid a further bad sign. 0.2.5 NYSE Total Volume, not good, still look like a top instead of a bottom. By the way, price down on volume down is not at all a bullish sign, in a downtrend, it means bearish continuation. What bulls really need to see is price down on volume surge which may imply a process of capitulation.
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Post by brosin on Aug 31, 2010 1:17:32 GMT -5
2nd piece is especially insightful, although not warm-fuzzy-feeling-inducing ;D Ritholtz:Quote of the Day: Double Dip or NotI really liked this quote from Felix Zulauf’s August commentary: “Hence, the key question is not double dip or not but how good will economic growth be in real and nominal terms. When an economy shows the weakest recovery on record despite of the biggest monetary and fiscal stimuli on record, something is definitely different from previous cycles. In our view, it is debt deleveraging. So far, the US consumer and financial institutions have undertaken steps and decreased leverage to some degree but we are nowhere near the end of this process. At the very best, it will take another 2 years but most likely longer until that process is complete. In the meantime, household income growth or the lack thereof will become the decisive factor. At present, it does not look very encouraging as it is stagnant in most countries or anemic at best. Moreover, in the US, housing is an important balance sheet item for the average household and those prices continue to erode. Hence, we do not see a lot of hope for a normal recovery pattern. In Europe, the discussion about retirement age has been launched whereby the proposal is to hike the age limit decisively as mathematically there is no way that these pensions can ever be financed based on demographics and tax revenues in a low growth environment. This blows away many dreams of a relaxed retirement period and forces households to save more . . .” (Emphasis added by me) Maybe They’ll Listen NowKevin Ferry is the Co-Founder of Cronus Futures Management. He created the company in 2005 with five other traders focusing on fixed income, foreign exchange and equity futures trading in the electronic world. Currently, Chief Market Strategist, Ferry has 24 years experience in futures trading. Kevin Ferry Graduated from John Carroll University in 1983, majoring Economics. ~~~ We have ranted and raved about the risks of electronic trading for years. Our concerns have been voiced to cab drivers, investors, CME officials and the family dog. The glazed looks and indifferent responses come from the belief that we are just disgruntled “floor guys” who can’t adjust to the modern world. Nothing could be further from the truth. Now that Alan Ableson has highlighted the dangers in BARRON’s, we expect a more serious investigation. The title of his missive is “Stacked Deck,” not a start that bolsters confidence in what’s to follow. I advise paying attention to two quotes from different analysts in the article. 1) “The long run not only doesn’t count, it doesn’t exist.” 2) “HFT provides an ILLUSION of almost limitless liquidity, liquidity that can vanish abruptly if a few platforms take a break.” We have called this the danger of confusing volume with liquidity. The focus since the “flash crash” remains on equity products. We continue to fear the absorption of massive Treasury supply is the financial tinder of the next forest fire. Large foreign central bank holdings are flood waters held back by an artificial dam.I ate the Red Pill (see the Wiki) long ago. The risk now is that Congress and regulators consider seeing the capital markets for what they really are. A word of caution, the world behind the facade is a scarier one. The question that retail investors and traders have to ask is can you live in the illiquid and volatile “real” world? Or, is a fake world of relative day to day “stability” and periodic (and regularly occurring) crashes “better?” I stare at the illusion daily, read the BARRON’S. Maybe someone will listen now.
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Post by kryptos2009 on Aug 31, 2010 1:42:11 GMT -5
Here is the PP Daily Thread (PPDT) data. XLF PP=13.52 MP=13.57 R1=13.62 MP=13.71 R2=13.79 MP=13.93 R3=14.06 MP=14.20 R4=14.33 MP=13.44 S1=13.35 MP=13.30 S2=13.25 MP=13.12 S3=12.98 MP=12.85 S4=12.71 O=13.67 H=13.7 L=13.43 C=13.44 FAS PP=17.87 MP=18.05 R1=18.23 MP=18.54 R2=18.85 MP=19.34 R3=19.83 MP=20.32 R4=20.81 MP=17.56 S1=17.25 MP=17.07 S2=16.89 MP=16.40 S3=15.91 MP=15.42 S4=14.93 O=18.38 H=18.5 L=17.52 C=17.6 FAZ PP=16.82 MP=17.09 R1=17.35 MP=17.51 R2=17.66 MP=18.08 R3=18.50 MP=18.92 R4=19.34 MP=16.67 S1=16.51 MP=16.25 S2=15.98 MP=15.56 S3=15.14 MP=14.72 S4=14.30 O=16.35 H=17.12 L=16.28 C=17.05 SPY PP=105.84 MP=106.11 R1=106.38 MP=106.92 R2=107.45 MP=108.26 R3=109.06 MP=109.87 R4=110.67 MP=105.31 S1=104.77 MP=104.50 S2=104.23 MP=103.43 S3=102.62 MP=101.82 S4=101.01 O=106.58 H=106.91 L=105.3 C=105.31 SPG PP=90.25 MP=90.52 R1=90.78 MP=91.29 R2=91.80 MP=92.57 R3=93.35 MP=94.12 R4=94.90 MP=89.74 S1=89.23 MP=88.97 S2=88.70 MP=87.92 S3=87.15 MP=86.37 S4=85.60 O=89.94 H=91.26 L=89.71 C=89.77 GS PP=137.81 MP=138.39 R1=138.96 MP=140.12 R2=141.27 MP=143.00 R3=144.73 MP=146.46 R4=148.19 MP=136.66 S1=135.50 MP=134.93 S2=134.35 MP=132.62 S3=130.89 MP=129.16 S4=127.43 O=138.83 H=140.11 L=136.65 C=136.66 JPM PP=36.09 MP=36.23 R1=36.36 MP=36.61 R2=36.86 MP=37.25 R3=37.63 MP=38.02 R4=38.40 MP=35.84 S1=35.59 MP=35.46 S2=35.32 MP=34.94 S3=34.55 MP=34.17 S4=33.78 O=36.4 H=36.6 L=35.83 C=35.85 MS PP=24.63 MP=24.74 R1=24.85 MP=25.06 R2=25.26 MP=25.58 R3=25.89 MP=26.21 R4=26.52 MP=24.43 S1=24.22 MP=24.11 S2=24.00 MP=23.69 S3=23.37 MP=23.06 S4=22.74 O=24.88 H=25.05 L=24.42 C=24.43 C PP=3.70 MP=3.72 R1=3.73 MP=3.76 R2=3.79 MP=3.84 R3=3.88 MP=3.93 R4=3.97 MP=3.67 S1=3.64 MP=3.63 S2=3.61 MP=3.57 S3=3.52 MP=3.48 S4=3.43 O=3.75 H=3.76 L=3.67 C=3.67 VIX PP=26.56 MP=27.13 R1=27.70 MP=27.99 R2=28.28 MP=29.14 R3=30.00 MP=30.86 R4=31.72 MP=26.27 S1=25.98 MP=25.41 S2=24.84 MP=23.98 S3=23.12 MP=22.26 S4=21.40 O=25.88 H=27.13 L=25.41 C=27.13 UUP PP=24.11 MP=24.15 R1=24.18 MP=24.20 R2=24.21 MP=24.26 R3=24.31 MP=24.36 R4=24.41 MP=24.10 S1=24.08 MP=24.05 S2=24.01 MP=23.96 S3=23.91 MP=23.86 S4=23.81 O=24.07 H=24.15 L=24.05 C=24.14 FROM: www.econoday.comEconomic Events & Analysis - 8/31/2010 Tuesday7:45 AM ET ICSC-Goldman Store Sales 8:55 AM ET Redbook 9:00 AM ET S&P Case-Shiller HPI 9:45 AM ET Chicago PMI Released on 8/31/2010 9:45:00 AM For Aug, 2010 Prior Consensus Consensus Range Business Barometer Index - Level 62.3 56.0 54.1 to 58.5 Market Consensus Before Announcement The Chicago PMI in June rose to 62.3, a level right at the top of the recovery and indicating very strong, if not robust, month-to-month growth. And we are likely to see another healthy number in August as July's new orders index jumped 5-1/2 points to 64.6. 10:00 AM ET Consumer Confidence Released on 8/31/2010 10:00:00 AM For Aug, 2010 Prior Consensus Consensus Range Consumer Confidence - Level 50.4 51.0 48.0 to 54.0 Market Consensus Before Announcement The Conference Board's consumer confidence index slipped to 50.4 in July from an upwardly revised 54.3 in June (initially 52.9). The latest decrease was led by a drop in expectations to 66.6 from 72.7 in June. But the present situation sub-index also declined-to 26.1 from 26.8. Looking ahead, we already have an early indication from the final August consumer sentiment index from Reuters/University of Michigan. The August sentiment reading was up only marginally at 68.9 from its July full-month reading of 67.8. The level remains quite low. 10:00 AM ET State Street Investor Confidence Index 11:30 AM ET 4-Week Bill Auction 2:00 PM ET FOMC Minutes 3:00 PM ET Farm Prices Additional World wide Economic Calendar information can be found at the following website. worldeconomiccalendar.com/NOTE: The previous days OHLC data for todays PPDT was gathered from finance.yahoo.com for each individual stock by a series of webquerys built into a spreadsheet. The formulas used by the www.mypivots.com website to create the Pivot Points were found in the sites help files. The formulas were built into the spreadsheet which acts on the previous days OHLC data gathered from Yahoo. The Pivot Points were created using the formulas from www.mypivots.com but NOT by using the site. Please let me know if you find any errors in the data. Use of this data is at your own risk.
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Post by ask2lern on Aug 31, 2010 6:15:49 GMT -5
Thanks for the info Krypto and Bros ……….Here are the pivots……….…hope everyone has a great day …………………GLTA
GOLD
R4 1256.87 midpoint 1253.47 R3 1250.07 midpoint 1246.67 R2 1243.27 Midpoint 1241.80 R1 1240.33 midpoint 1238.40
PP 1236.47
midpoint 1235.00 S1 1233.53 midpoint 1231.60 S2 1229.67 midpoint 1226.27 S3 1222.87 midpoint 1219.47 S4 1216.07
SILVER
R4 19.84 midpoint 19.72 R3 19.59 midpoint 19.47 R2 19.34 midpoint 19.27 R1 19.20 midpoint 19.15
PP 19.09
midpoint 19.02 S1 18.95 midpoint 18.90 S2 18.84 midpoint 18.72 S3 18.59 midpoint 18.47 S4 18.34
IMW
R3 62.60 R2 62.13 R1 61.21
PP 60.74
S1 59.82 S2 59.35 S3 58.43
TNA
R4 41.95 midpoint 40.74 R3 39.52 midpoint 38.31 R2 37.09 midpoint 36.29 R1 35.48 midpoint 35.07
PP 34.66
midpoint 33.86 S1 33.05 midpoint 32.64 S2 32.23 midpoint 31.02 S3 29.80 midpoint 28.59 S4 27.37
TZA
R4 44.75 Midpoint 43.54 R3 42.34 midpoint 41.13 R2 39.93 midpoint 39.52 R1 39.11 midpoint 38.32
PP 37.52
midpoint 37.11 S1 36.70 midpoint 35.91 S2 35.11 midpoint 33.90 S3 32.70 midpoint 31.49 S4 30.29
SDS
R3 36.78 R2 36.10 R1 35.76 PP 35.08
S1 34.74 S2 34.06 S3 33.72
………………………..GLTA
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Post by ask2lern on Aug 31, 2010 6:19:34 GMT -5
From http://www.optionmonster.com................GL\
Levels unchanged as stocks drift August 31, 2010 Tue 12:28 AM CT
We have no changes for the indexes on Monday. Interestingly the range traded was proportionally about the same as each day last week. Once again, the days have simply alternated up and down in recent sessions, with a very slight upside bias.
The challenge for the week is the high number of economic reports still to come, particularly where employment is concerned. We will likely move sideways until those are out of the way.
For review, the key levels below existing support are at 1760 on the Nasdaq 100, 1040 on the S&P 500, and 585 on the Russell 2000. If those get broken on a closing basis, we may see the larger multi-month range break. If that happens, we could well see a shift in momentum to the downside.
Nasdaq 100 (NDX)
First support is at 1765.36. First resistance is at 1793.43. For the NASDAQ 100 Index Tracking Stock (QQQQ) first support is at $43.46. First resistance is at $44.12.
S&P 500 (SPX)
First support is at 1046.68. First resistance is at 1080. For the Standard and Poor's Depository Receipts (SPY) first support is at $104.97. First resistance is at $108.
Russell 2000 (RUT)
First support is at 588.58. First major resistance is at 620. For the iShares Trust Russell 2000 Index Fund (IWM) first support is at $58.88. First resistance is at $62.
By: Bryan McCormick
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Post by ask2lern on Aug 31, 2010 6:23:17 GMT -5
From www,optionmonster.com.................GL Consumer dominates economic dataAugust 31, 2010 Tue 12:26 AM CT Today has two particularly important reports: the Chicago Purchasing Managers’ Index and Consumer Confidence. One will give traders additional insight into the health of businesses and the other will show how consumers are responding to economic conditions. The ICSC-Goldman Store Sales report will be released at 7:45am eastern time. The report includes a week-over-week change number and a year-over-year change. Most traders focus on the year-over-year number because it's a better measure of trend. The prior week-over-week change showed a loss of 0.4 percent, while the yearly number was positive 2.3 percent. Stronger-than-expected positive numbers would be seen as bullish, while negative numbers would be bearish. Redbook Store Sales will be released at 8:55am. As with the ICSC-Goldman report, there are two components to watch. One is the "noisier" month-over-month change and the other is the year-over-year change that follows the broader trend, so most traders focus on annual portion of the report. The prior month-over-month change showed a gain of 1 percent and the last year-over-year data showed a gain of 2.6 percent. Negative numbers in either series would be bearish. The S&P Case/Shiller Home Price Index will be reported at 9am, with economists expecting a month-over-month change is a gain of 0.2 percent. On a yearly basis, it’s forecast to increase by 3.9 percent. The range of expected values for the year-over-year change, which most traders will focus on, is from a bearish 2.5 percent to a bullish 4.9 percent. Chicago PMI is due at 9:45am. Consensus calls for a drop to 57 from the previous 62.3. The range is quite wide, from a bearish 52 at the low end, to a bullish 63 at the high end. With consensus tilted toward the low end of the range, a more bullish reading is likely to produce a more extreme response. The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence number for August comes out at 10am. Most economists expect the reading to rise to 51, from the previous reading of 50.4. The range is very wide for this report. At the low end of the range, a very bearish 47.5 is forecast. At the high end, a bullish 55 is expected. Uploaded with ImageShack.us(Chart courtesy of tradeMONSTER) By: Bryan McCormick
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Post by ask2lern on Aug 31, 2010 6:26:11 GMT -5
FOR UK and others that play steel............. from http://www.optionmonster.com.....................GLTA Downside strategy extended on AK SteelAugust 31, 2010 Tue 12:23 AM CT AK Steel Holding is consolidating after a big drop in April, and one investor is positioning for another push to the downside. optionMONSTER's Depth Charge tracking system detected the purchase of about 3,700 October 11 puts for $0.47 and the sale of an existing position in the same number of September 11 puts for $0.14. The transaction, known as a put roll, cost the investor $0.33 and provided an extra month of downside exposure. AKS fell 0.08 percent to $12.60 yesterday. The Ohio-based steelmaker double-topped around $24 in early April, then collapsed through support and worked its way as low as $11.34 by early July. Since then it's been moving sideways and trying to hold a support level from the spring of 2009. However it seems to be encountering resistance at its 50-day moving average, which some traders may consider evidence it's still in a downtrend. AKS traded over $70 in mid-2008 before the credit bubble broke. It reported better-than-expected earnings on July 27, but said that its per-ton selling price would drop. The shares have yet to regain the level where they opened that session. Depth Charge also detected the purchase of about 1,700 September 15 puts for $2.24, although volume was below open interest. Call buying was the broader theme in the session, but it came against open interest. That can actually be bearish because it may indicate that investors dumped shares and bought back calls they had sold as part of covered-call trades. See our Education Section for more. Uploaded with ImageShack.us(Chart courtesy of tradeMONSTER) By: David Russell
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Post by ask2lern on Aug 31, 2010 6:28:34 GMT -5
And my last post from www.optionmonster.com for now .......GLTA Trade looks for volatility to fallAugust 31, 2010 Tue 12:20 AM CT Volume was awful on Monday, with less than 8 million contracts traded overall, and the VXX Short Term VIX Futures ETN was no exception. Interestingly, a bet on lower volatility was the largest trade. VXX is a constantly rolling combination of the front two month futures on the VIX volatility index, which tracks the cost of protection on the S&P 500 Index. As such, it typically moves inversely to the broader stock market, but at about half the speed of the spot VIX. On Monday VXX was up 3.16 percent with the S&P 500 down 1.47 percent. The note has been trending lower since peeking above $36 in late May when the S&P 500 was actually higher in the 1075 range. This highlights a couple of features. The first is that given VIX and VXX levels do not correspond to specific SPX levels. The other is that the VXX faces a distinct headwind when the VIX futures carry premiums, as they have for most of the last three months because that extra value erodes as expiration approaches. Given these factors, it is no great surprise that some traders are betting on a lower VXX. The total volume in the VXX was less than 18,000 contracts, and that volume was pretty well dispersed among strikes. The October 18 puts lead the way with just 2,595 contracts. But that was more than 5 times the previous open interest. And most of those were bought across exchanges in the same second for $0.20. These put buyers believe that the VXX will back below the yearly lows from April when it got down as low as $17.84. That would require the S&P 500 to stay in a steady range so that the VIX will back into the low end of its range. Uploaded with ImageShack.us(Chart courtesy of tradeMONSTER) By: Chris McKhann
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Post by abdogman on Aug 31, 2010 6:58:20 GMT -5
Good Morning Gang................kryptos,bros,ask thank you for the info and numbers
Good Luck All.....................back for the open!!!!
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Post by deadmoney95 on Aug 31, 2010 7:46:48 GMT -5
Feh. Carl F saying F this:
September S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate is 1025-1045. The ES has dropped all the way back to Friday's low. This is a bearish development. I now think the market is headed for 1010-15.
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Post by ccash04 on Aug 31, 2010 8:25:01 GMT -5
Good morning all, thanks for the info, all of it great!
Don't really understand the reaction to the Case shiller numbers as it looks back all the way to June and its last day of August now, and the housing numbers got much worse this month (I will have to write that down for the calendar when the Case Shiller numbers for this month come out in November I know they will be weaker).
Hope we find direction which ever way that may be.
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Post by triggerhappy on Aug 31, 2010 8:25:08 GMT -5
Feh. Carl F saying F this: September S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate is 1025-1045. The ES has dropped all the way back to Friday's low. This is a bearish development. I now think the market is headed for 1010-15. When Carl throws in the towel, you know it is bad...
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Post by ccash04 on Aug 31, 2010 8:27:23 GMT -5
Feh. Carl F saying F this: September S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate is 1025-1045. The ES has dropped all the way back to Friday's low. This is a bearish development. I now think the market is headed for 1010-15. When Carl throws in the towel, you know it is bad... Maybe bad enough to go long ;D ;D I'm just waiting for capitulation now, although with the general market apathy that could be a while
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Post by abdogman on Aug 31, 2010 8:34:19 GMT -5
xlf 13.41 on 1m
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Post by abdogman on Aug 31, 2010 8:37:12 GMT -5
xlf 13.38 on 1m
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Post by abdogman on Aug 31, 2010 8:41:49 GMT -5
xlf 13.33 on 1m below S1 now
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Post by abdogman on Aug 31, 2010 8:44:17 GMT -5
xlf 13.36 on 1m ?
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Post by abdogman on Aug 31, 2010 8:45:32 GMT -5
August Chicago PMI 56.7 vs 57.0 Briefing.com consensus, July 62.3
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Post by abdogman on Aug 31, 2010 8:48:06 GMT -5
macd pos now on 1m for xlf fas xlf 13.39 back above S1 on 1m
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Post by ccash04 on Aug 31, 2010 8:48:54 GMT -5
PMI is good enough I guess lol
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Post by abdogman on Aug 31, 2010 8:50:56 GMT -5
xlf 13.44 on 1m
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Post by ask2lern on Aug 31, 2010 8:54:15 GMT -5
My current SPY levels are R 105.5 S 105.03.................No trades yet here........GLTA
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Post by abdogman on Aug 31, 2010 8:57:58 GMT -5
xlf 13.42 on 1m macd still pos xlf fas on 1m
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Post by abdogman on Aug 31, 2010 9:00:49 GMT -5
August Consumer Confidence 53.5 vs 50.0 Briefing.com consensus, July 51.0
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Post by abdogman on Aug 31, 2010 9:01:28 GMT -5
xlf 13.47 on 1m
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Post by Clinton SPX on Aug 31, 2010 9:01:53 GMT -5
Bull Stampede ya ya ya
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Post by abdogman on Aug 31, 2010 9:03:46 GMT -5
xlf 13.49 on 1m
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Post by ask2lern on Aug 31, 2010 9:07:58 GMT -5
Ok new SPY levels for me..................R 105.80 S 105.39..............still no position.......GL
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Post by sp7015 on Aug 31, 2010 9:09:26 GMT -5
I took a leap of faith and bought aapl $240 weekly's for $4.10 this am. They are doing pretty good now.
aapl media event tommorro. Will probabley sell later in the day or on any weakness.
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Post by abdogman on Aug 31, 2010 9:11:03 GMT -5
xlf 13.52 on 1m macd pos on 1m xlf fas
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